2011 NFL Draft: Prospect Stock Watch

Rising

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
Is there any wonder Auburn is slated to play in the title game at the moment, with two of college football’s best continuing to play at an elite level? Like Fairley, Newton was an afterthought in terms of underclassmen considering the 2011 draft in September. He was a big recruit, but hadn’t done much in terms of actual playing time and production. It’s amazing how much can change in three months. Newton may be the leading contender for the Heisman Trophy at the moment, and has probably pushed his stock into the first round of the draft. Newton has thrown for over 2,200 yards and 24 scores with just six interceptions, while adding over 1,300 yards and 18 scores on the ground. Newton has fantastic size for the QB position, but is a phenomenal athlete and playmaker to go along with it. He has the arm to make any throw on the field, and has shown the ability and poise to step up when his team needs him. Newton may have some off-field question marks that will be hashed out in the months leading up to the draft, but as of right now, he’s one of four QB’s that could go in the first round of the draft.

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Fairley has been a steady riser since the beginning of the season. Just a junior, Fairley wasn’t one of the early junior to really watch for the 2011, but with five sacks in the first three games, he quickly made himself one to watch. He has been dominant all season long, and is coming off a two sack performance in Auburn’s comeback victory over rival Alabama. Through 12 games, Fairley has 20 tackles for loss, with 9.5 sacks. He has used his combination of size, power, and quickness to dominate all year long, and at this point, may be considered the top defensive lineman available for the draft. His talent could fit in any scheme and his stock has risen so much, he’s running out of room to rise further.

Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Miller was on the falling side of things in the last edition, in large part due to injuries that took it’s toll on his physical skills. Finally healthy, Miller is wreaking havoc on opposing offenses, and pushing his status back to the level it was at the start of the year. In September, Miller was considered one of the best pass rushers in the draft, and a potential top 20 selection for teams in need of help at outside linebacker. His performance in the first half of the season probably pushed him down around the 50th overall range. He has closed strong with 30 tackles and seven sacks in four November games, including two sacks against Texas this past weekend. Miller has re-established himself as a feared pass rusher, and is back in first round territory as a prospect.

Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
The third underclassmen on this list, LeShoure put on a show two weeks against Northwestern at Wrigley Field. He ran for 330 yards and two scores on 33 carries to lead the Illini to a 48-27 victory. LeShoure is not just a one game wonder, as he had already topped the 1,000 yard mark before that game. That game put him on the national map, and in a weak crop of running backs, has really moved up draft boards. He has surprising feet and speed in the open field for a 225lb pounder, and really should consider his draft options this year. Another junior, Mark Ingram may be the top back on most boards, but the backs after him may not project as consistent threats between the tackles. LeShoure definitely does. His stock could be as high as the second round right now, and could be even higher depending on what other backs declare for the 2011 draft.

Falling

Jake Locker, QB, Washinton
Locker entered the season as the top overall pick on most boards. He’s not even the top QB from his own conference anymore. Andrew Luck’s growth and performance this year have pushed him ahead of Locker as the odds on favorite to be the top QB and possible top overall selection. Many expected Locker to progress much more quicker with another season under Steve Sarkisian, but that has not been the case. A variety of injuries have beaten Locker up, but his own inconsistencies have hurt him as well. His completion percentage has actually dropped from last season, and his decision making and mechanics haven’t gotten any better. Luck may not be the only QB to surpass Locker on draft boards either, as Ryan Mallett and Cameron Newton are hot on his heels as well.

Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
Stanzi has impressive stats on the year with a 25-4 touchdown to interception ratio, while completing almost 65% of his passes. However, Stanzi has failed in three straight weeks to pull out a victory in the fourth quarter. Losses can’t be blamed solely on one player, but for a QB who has impressed with his toughness and leadership ability, the fall from top ten team to unranked in three weeks is unacceptable. Stanzi does not possess the raw physical tools to blow scouts away. He’s the type of guy that’s suppose to find a way to win games, and he has not done that. In his most recent performance, Stanzi completed less than 50% of his passes to a Minnesota team that gave up 41 points to the University of South Dakota, an FCS school. Stanzi is still a prospect, but he has not helped himself in recent weeks.

Greg Romeus, DE, Pitt
Romeus was projected as a second rounder entering the season, and hoped for a big senior season to push him into the first round area. He had a great frame and the potential to be a standout end versus the pass and run. This season has been a rough one for Romeus, however. A back injury in the opener required surgery. He got himself back into the lineup three weeks ago against Connecticut, but a knee injury took him out of that one. It was revealed to be a torn ACL, and his college career is over. Romeus had a lot to prove entering the season, so missing virtually the entire season with two surgeries definitely clouds his future. He will likely be limited in what he can do physically for teams leading up to the draft, which will make it hard for anyone to touch him inside the top 100 picks.

Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Dowling is another player that had first round aspirations at the start of the year, with multiple injuries derailing those hopes. Dowling is an athletic playmaker in the secondary with great size that carried a borderline first round grade at the start of the year. An injured hamstring and knee injury slowed him down the first half of the season. A fractured ankle ended it. The cornerback crop has a number of talents that could go in the first round, so Dowling’s inability to distinguish himself this season definitely hurts. He should be up and healthy to work out for teams before the draft which will help stabilize his stock, but as of right now, he’s fallen out of the top 40 picks and will have work to do to get back into that range.