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Chiefs fan here..Should Colts stay at #29, move up or down?

 
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nicfre


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 324
PostPosted: Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:36 am    Post subject: Chiefs fan here..Should Colts stay at #29, move up or down? Reply with quote

If you had your say in what the Colts do draft day, would you stay at #29, trade up into the middle to top first round, or trade out of the first round for more picks?

Would you want to move up to #15? If so, what would you be willing to give up in draft picks to do so?

Would you want to trade out of the first round? If so, what picks would you want?
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inkwell


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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Location: Maryland
PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2005 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My guess is that they stay put but usually Pollian seems more interested in trading down than up. I think it is a given that with the Colts cap situation he will need to keep bringing in a constant flow of young players to replace higher priced talent. If we accept that the Colts primary needs are CB and LB, they are unlikely to trade up since CB is so deep and the LBs likely to be available at 15 are more pass rushers than complete LBs who would fit the Colts system. The value for Colts in middle of round would probably be at DT and they have numbers and $$ already committed at DT, tho I would like to see them pick up Travis Johnson.
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bigred


Joined: 17 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2005 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again well said ink. Polian NEVER trades up.

I sure would love to see Rolle or D Johnson in the blue and white though. Sad

PS: always liked the Chiefs; hope y'all manage to snag Rolle or Adam Jones and settle down on D. Too bad they missed some of the better FA gems. I'd love to see em go the whole way.
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nicfre


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bigred wrote:
Again well said ink. Polian NEVER trades up.

I sure would love to see Rolle or D Johnson in the blue and white though. :(

PS: always liked the Chiefs; hope y'all manage to snag Rolle or Adam Jones and settle down on D. Too bad they missed some of the better FA gems. I'd love to see em go the whole way.


If we stay at #15, I see us drafting Carlos Rogers. He will be a good corner in the NFL with his size and speed.
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bigred


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

....if he doesn't take plays off as he was prone to do in college at times, yes. Don't get me wrong that would be a good pick also (probably).
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ShakeNbake2128


Joined: 16 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 2:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why in Gods name as a Colts fan would you guys want them to draft Travis Johnson or any other DT for that matter. Ok Your offense is deadly and scores at will forcing other teams to score fast against you, running the ball will not help them to do so. Therefor you do not need a run stuffer. You have one of the games best pass rusher now you need to go out and get someone with speed on the outside at CB to shut down opponets recievers. Don't worry about DL or LB's you need coverage men.
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nicfre


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brownsfan868031 wrote:
Why in Gods name as a Colts fan would you guys want them to draft Travis Johnson or any other DT for that matter. Ok Your offense is deadly and scores at will forcing other teams to score fast against you, running the ball will not help them to do so. Therefor you do not need a run stuffer. You have one of the games best pass rusher now you need to go out and get someone with speed on the outside at CB to shut down opponets recievers. Don't worry about DL or LB's you need coverage men.


First of all, did you watch the AFC Championship game? Corey Dillon consistently was getting runs of over 5 yards. The New England offensive line was getting a push at the second level - getting containment on the linebackers. Yes, the Colts need a cornerback, and that certainly is an option, in fact, they may draft a corner in the first and select a defensive tackle in the second round. But the fact remains Johnson is a potential game breaker at tackle with his strength and athleticism. Remember, this is a draft deep at the cornerback position and they could potentially draft a quality cornerback in the second round like Corey Webster, Marlin Jackson, Eric Green, Fabian Washington, Ronald Bartell.
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inkwell


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brownsfan868031 wrote:
Why in Gods name as a Colts fan would you guys want them to draft Travis Johnson or any other DT for that matter. Ok Your offense is deadly and scores at will forcing other teams to score fast against you, running the ball will not help them to do so. Therefor you do not need a run stuffer. You have one of the games best pass rusher now you need to go out and get someone with speed on the outside at CB to shut down opponets recievers. Don't worry about DL or LB's you need coverage men.


You might not have a very good understanding of a Dungy defensive scheme. All four linemen are pass rushers. They do not utilize a traditional run stuffing, relatively immobile behemoth to eat up two blockers freeing the LB to make the play. They emphasize getting upfield. Their linemen do not play head up on a blocker in a two gap style. They shoot the gap, attempting to disrupt the offense's blocking scheme and flow.This is why they would look at a DT like Johnson or Patterson who are quick off the snap and make penetration. As you might suspect, this pressure ideally creates turnover opportunities and shortens the time a QB has to pass, thus helping pass defense. The biggest issue I have with us taking Johnson here is that if he drops this far, it means teams are down on him for some reason. He is projected to go much higher. If he falls to us and we dont have some black mark on him that devalues him, I would grab him as a huge value at a position of some need, if not prime need.

Additionally, Dungy and Polian are convinced that the new rules in the NFL lessen the value of a CB since it makes it harder to blanket a WR without making contact. Based on this they emphasize the pass rush over the coverage. Obviously, based on the contracts given to some CB free agents, not everyone agrees but the Colts braintrust has stated pretty emphatically that they feel a star CB is overpaid today based on the effect they feel he can have on the game under the current rules.

Lastly, a lot of their draft strategy depends on their true intentions vis a vis Mathis and Brock. If they really do move Mathis to LB and Brock inside, then they probably need an end more than a tackle and some ends might be better value at their spot depending on who drops (Tuck, Roth, Cody) than the tackles available here (Patterson).
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nicfre


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 324
PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

inkwell wrote:
Brownsfan868031 wrote:
Why in Gods name as a Colts fan would you guys want them to draft Travis Johnson or any other DT for that matter. Ok Your offense is deadly and scores at will forcing other teams to score fast against you, running the ball will not help them to do so. Therefor you do not need a run stuffer. You have one of the games best pass rusher now you need to go out and get someone with speed on the outside at CB to shut down opponets recievers. Don't worry about DL or LB's you need coverage men.


You might not have a very good understanding of a Dungy defensive scheme. All four linemen are pass rushers. They do not utilize a traditional run stuffing, relatively immobile behemoth to eat up two blockers freeing the LB to make the play. They emphasize getting upfield. Their linemen do not play head up on a blocker in a two gap style. They shoot the gap, attempting to disrupt the offense's blocking scheme and flow.This is why they would look at a DT like Johnson or Patterson who are quick off the snap and make penetration. As you might suspect, this pressure ideally creates turnover opportunities and shortens the time a QB has to pass, thus helping pass defense. The biggest issue I have with us taking Johnson here is that if he drops this far, it means teams are down on him for some reason. He is projected to go much higher. If he falls to us and we dont have some black mark on him that devalues him, I would grab him as a huge value at a position of some need, if not prime need.

Additionally, Dungy and Polian are convinced that the new rules in the NFL lessen the value of a CB since it makes it harder to blanket a WR without making contact. Based on this they emphasize the pass rush over the coverage. Obviously, based on the contracts given to some CB free agents, not everyone agrees but the Colts braintrust has stated pretty emphatically that they feel a star CB is overpaid today based on the effect they feel he can have on the game under the current rules.

Lastly, a lot of their draft strategy depends on their true intentions vis a vis Mathis and Brock. If they really do move Mathis to LB and Brock inside, then they probably need an end more than a tackle and some ends might be better value at their spot depending on who drops (Tuck, Roth, Cody) than the tackles available here (Patterson).


Ink,
Very good response. I can see you are a Colts fan that knows the team. Nice to see. That said, you are right that Johnson is projected to go much higher than #29. Also David Pollack will more than likely be long gone by the time you select in the first round. Would you be willing to trade up in the draft to get either of those two or would you rather stay at #29 and hope that Matt Roth is there. I think Dan Cody might slip a little, possibly to #29, and I think Tuck will be there at #29. If you would want to trade up to #15, what would you give up to move to that spot?
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inkwell


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what would "I" want Polian to do or what do I think he might do? Personally I dont think he will trade up. I believe it is his preference to trade down and accumulate picks when he feels there are a lot of players equally rated to where he currently sits. His recent history says he will try to trade down and add picks. With all the cap room tied up in the offense, he knows he needs to draft depth that can be "coached up" to replace cap casualties every couple years. To me the only thing that could shake up the Colts draft is a trade of Edge, which by the way I dont think is gonna happen. I think Edge will play one year as a franchise designee and if they sign a stadium deal, during the season, he will be signed to a long term contract. Polian indicated this connection in an interview this week on Sirius radio's NFL channel. Sooooo . . . I think they sit tight and will draft someone we cant anticipate. Someone Polian targets who we dont think will go this high. Like Freeney he will stretch to make sure he gets the guy he wants if he cant trade down. Similarly he did this in taking Dallas Clark over Jason Witten. He has been successful enough and is secure enough in Indy to take who he targets without worrying about fan backlash. I think he would like Cody (USC) because he can swing inside and out depending on down and distance. They put a lot of importance on versatility (Scioli, Brock, the OL). I think if Justin Miller is there, they might look at him. I think they could take one of the pass rush specialists like Roth, Ware, Tuck or Cody (OKL). I think they could take Patterson. If they clear Channing Crowder and Odell Thurman on off field concerns, they could draft one of them to replace Morris who is still a free agent. They could look at Kevin Burnett for OLB or Thomas Davis if he is there to move to OLB since they dont fear small LBs. I think a guy like Marlin Jackson or Brodney Pool would interest them as they both could be tried at CB and if they fail there could give them more of a free safety type than the two starters who are in the box SS types. I think they would have interest in Chris Canty who can swing inside and out much like Shaun Cody. In short, it is impossible to predict this spot. They could go so many ways and fit in their pick. Polian doesnt fit the mold, he goes his own way and doesnt look back. There is too much flux in the D right now. We dont know if Morris is coming back. if not they might have to take Crowder or Thurman whether they want to or not. If they move Mathis and Brock from end, they need a DE badly . . . Scioli is gone. But I dont think they would trade up to 15 for a Pollack. Maybe if a Merriman fell that far but then KC would probably gobble him up. If I was you and you are worrying about KC . . . My concern with Indy would be that they sneak in and steal Surtain from you. Right now I think it is a foregone conclusion that your trade with Miami will end up happening eventually. I am hoping the Colts sneak in on the Corey Simon trade talks and if not there then the Surtain talks. But not a peep about us in either situation.
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smstuart14


Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

inkwell - i llike the way you think but be bold and tell me what you think the colts will do. Make a stab. I've seen you make stabs on mock drafts at Polians intentions.
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nicfre


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 324
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

inkwell wrote:
what would "I" want Polian to do or what do I think he might do? Personally I dont think he will trade up. I believe it is his preference to trade down and accumulate picks when he feels there are a lot of players equally rated to where he currently sits. His recent history says he will try to trade down and add picks. With all the cap room tied up in the offense, he knows he needs to draft depth that can be "coached up" to replace cap casualties every couple years. To me the only thing that could shake up the Colts draft is a trade of Edge, which by the way I dont think is gonna happen. I think Edge will play one year as a franchise designee and if they sign a stadium deal, during the season, he will be signed to a long term contract. Polian indicated this connection in an interview this week on Sirius radio's NFL channel. Sooooo . . . I think they sit tight and will draft someone we cant anticipate. Someone Polian targets who we dont think will go this high. Like Freeney he will stretch to make sure he gets the guy he wants if he cant trade down. Similarly he did this in taking Dallas Clark over Jason Witten. He has been successful enough and is secure enough in Indy to take who he targets without worrying about fan backlash. I think he would like Cody (USC) because he can swing inside and out depending on down and distance. They put a lot of importance on versatility (Scioli, Brock, the OL). I think if Justin Miller is there, they might look at him. I think they could take one of the pass rush specialists like Roth, Ware, Tuck or Cody (OKL). I think they could take Patterson. If they clear Channing Crowder and Odell Thurman on off field concerns, they could draft one of them to replace Morris who is still a free agent. They could look at Kevin Burnett for OLB or Thomas Davis if he is there to move to OLB since they dont fear small LBs. I think a guy like Marlin Jackson or Brodney Pool would interest them as they both could be tried at CB and if they fail there could give them more of a free safety type than the two starters who are in the box SS types. I think they would have interest in Chris Canty who can swing inside and out much like Shaun Cody. In short, it is impossible to predict this spot. They could go so many ways and fit in their pick. Polian doesnt fit the mold, he goes his own way and doesnt look back. There is too much flux in the D right now. We dont know if Morris is coming back. if not they might have to take Crowder or Thurman whether they want to or not. If they move Mathis and Brock from end, they need a DE badly . . . Scioli is gone. But I dont think they would trade up to 15 for a Pollack. Maybe if a Merriman fell that far but then KC would probably gobble him up. If I was you and you are worrying about KC . . . My concern with Indy would be that they sneak in and steal Surtain from you. Right now I think it is a foregone conclusion that your trade with Miami will end up happening eventually. I am hoping the Colts sneak in on the Corey Simon trade talks and if not there then the Surtain talks. But not a peep about us in either situation.


Good points inkwell. As for the Surtain deal, you mentioned that with the salary cap situation and most of the money tied up in offense and also taking into consideration that Edgerrin James has signed the franchies offer, it doesn't seem on like there is much room to add Surtain's salary at this point. Again, as you mentioned on the outside chance that James does get traded then that may change things. I personally would like to see the Chiefs trade down in the first and pick up a second or high third round pick - especially if we do trade our second for Surtain.
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inkwell


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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Location: Maryland
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

smstuart14 wrote:
inkwell - i llike the way you think but be bold and tell me what you think the colts will do. Make a stab. I've seen you make stabs on mock drafts at Polians intentions.


If Justin Miller falls, it will be Miller. If not . . . Chris Canty assuming his injury checks out
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inkwell


Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I gathered that was your intent Nic . . . I just dont think the Colts will be looking to trade up. Too many players ranked equally after the first 8 or 10 picks. That is what I was trying to show by listing so many players who could work for the Colts at 29.
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bigred


Joined: 17 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They will not trade up. Bet the house on it.

As for "Polian doesn't look back," that's part of the problem. He has an ego as big as all outdoors and refuses to fess up to and/or learn from his mistakes. Case in point: Rob Morris. He has sucked from Day 1 yet retained his job and could still end up back on this team.
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