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CK785
Joined: 01 Feb 2012
Posts: 41
Location: SF Bay Area
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 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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Yikes, this Peyton-to-the-49ers speculation really exploded today.
I can see why the national fans and media would jump on it. Our offensive stats look pretty pathetic when stacked up against modern offensive juggernauts like Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans.
And for Niner fans in favor of it, of course no one can refute how great Peyton Manning was when healthy.
I personally just don't see it as likely or necessary for the Niners. The offense, when it came right down to it, did what it took to win games. Call it blind luck if you have to, but we were in every single game down to the end. We were never out of it, thanks to our D, and Alex Smith led multiple 4th quarter comebacks. (Of course, it was all too common for the offense to be the culprit of hair-pulling frustration.)
The counter-argument is that with a prolific QB we'd never suffer from offensive frustration in the first place, and therefore be that much better for it. But would we be? The salary cap is meant to create parity. Investing in a known commodity as great as Peyton Manning would require a huge financial commitment, and result in having to neglect other needs. It would likely take us out of the running for so-called 2nd tier free agent options (that we are likely targeting as of right now). For instance, imagine if we had invested heavily in a QB last offseason and missed out on Rogers and Whitner (or not resigned RayMac)?
I like what we have with Alex Smith, but of course hope and expect the offense to improve through this offseason.
If nothing else, we can continue to be underestimated a bit longer. 
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oldman9er
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 36624
Location: New Orleans
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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Strong post! 
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cHaInBrEaKeRiii
Joined: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 4293
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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We're missing on once in a lifetime QB here. Our offense with Alex will be same mediocre and blah offense and will see games like Saints n Eagles once or twice a year. Oh well!
People... Please don't twist this into how I'm not happy that we almost made it to SB. Cuz that's not what I'm saying!
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oldman9er
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 36624
Location: New Orleans
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| cHaInBrEaKeRiii wrote: | We're missing on once in a lifetime QB here. Our offense with Alex will be same mediocre and blah offense and will see games like Saints n Eagles once or twice a year. Oh well!
People... Please don't twist this into how I'm not happy that we almost made it to SB. Cuz that's not what I'm saying! |
Oh no... no twisting necessary. Your words are pretty clear. Yes, before we even sign a FA or draft an offensive upgrade, you see no possibility for offensive improvement during year two of Harbaugh's offense. Unless of course, we get Manning while dumping Alex. Got it!
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oldman9er
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 36624
Location: New Orleans
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/niners-talk/post/Thought-of-Manning-as-49er-never-took-of?blockID=664926&feedID=5884
Thought of Manning as 49er never took off locally
| Quote: | | There's been some national buzz that the 49ers, a team that advanced within an overtime loss in the NFC championship game from the Super Bowl, would be a nice landing spot for the 11-time Pro Bowl QB. Locally, the thought never seemed to gain a lot of traction. Jim Harbaugh, who has the respect of the locker room for being a man of his word, seemed to put an end to any speculation weeks ago. "Yeah, Alex (Smith) is our guy," Harbaugh said. "He had a tremendous season. Definitely, as a coach you worry about a lot of things. And when a QB is not signed and he is a FA that leads to some lost sleep." |
Harbaugh be stoopit! 
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oldman9er
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 36624
Location: New Orleans
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Alex Smith contract: What's the snag?
| Quote: | | The 49ers don't just have an offer on the table for Alex Smith, as reported by NFL Network and CSN Bay Area, it's been on the table for some time. So what's the hold up? Smith has been exceedingly open about wanting to return to the 49ers while the 49ers - namely, Jim Harbaugh -- have been even more effusive in their desire to have him back. It should have been done by now, right? According to a source with knowledge of the negotiations, the snag is the length of the deal, and with it the amount of guaranteed money. The 49ers are offering a shorter-term deal, believed to be three years. Smith's agent, Tom Condon, is pushing for a longer deal, believed to be five years. |
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/03/alex-smith-contract-whats-the-snag.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy
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in po we trust
Joined: 13 May 2009
Posts: 1433
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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Obviously Harbaugh and company are not stupid, but not even doing their due diligence on Manning and contacting his agent or having some sort of inquiry for the sake of preserving Alex's confidence could blow up in their face .. especially if Manning lands with a division rival who ultimately wins the division.
I'm looking for some big improvements from Alex this season for as much as Harbaugh has praised him and refused to look at any other option. I'm not talking about numbers wise, which would be nice, but from an accuracy, pre-snap reads, and getting the ball out quicker standpoint.
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cHaInBrEaKeRiii
Joined: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 4293
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | | cHaInBrEaKeRiii wrote: | We're missing on once in a lifetime QB here. Our offense with Alex will be same mediocre and blah offense and will see games like Saints n Eagles once or twice a year. Oh well!
People... Please don't twist this into how I'm not happy that we almost made it to SB. Cuz that's not what I'm saying! |
Oh no... no twisting necessary. Your words are pretty clear. Yes, before we even sign a FA or draft an offensive upgrade, you see no possibility for offensive improvement during year two of Harbaugh's offense. Unless of course, we get Manning while dumping Alex. Got it!
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Only time will tell.
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RedNGoldinSoCal
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 1138
Location: ATX via NorCal via SoCal
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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Clay Matthews
Jason Pierre-Paul'
Osi Umenyiora
Ndamukong Suh
Nick Fairley
Julius Peppers
Chris Clemons
Calais Campbell
Chris Long
Jared Allen
Those are some of the pass rushers that we are gonna face next year. We were top 3 in the NFL in sacks allowed last year. That looks to me like a lot of chances for Peyton Manning to be a really big cap hit that we get nothing from. CK785 hit it on the head. Signing Peyton would be knee-jerk, shortsighted, Madden-esque GM-ing. We will know exactly what we are getting with Alex next year, I don't think the same can be said for Peyton.
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y2lamanaki
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
Posts: 8621
Location: Lancaster, PA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| RedNGoldinSoCal wrote: | Clay Matthews
Jason Pierre-Paul'
Osi Umenyiora
Ndamukong Suh
Nick Fairley
Julius Peppers
Chris Clemons
Calais Campbell
Chris Long
Jared Allen
Those are some of the pass rushers that we are gonna face next year. We were top 3 in the NFL in sacks allowed last year. That looks to me like a lot of chances for Peyton Manning to be a really big cap hit that we get nothing from. CK785 hit it on the head. Signing Peyton would be knee-jerk, shortsighted, Madden-esque GM-ing. We will know exactly what we are getting with Alex next year, I don't think the same can be said for Peyton. |
I agree with the danger of having Peyton go up against those rushers with our line. Make no mistake about it - Peyton DOES get the ball out so quickly as to avoid sacks. But I think what everyone else is forgetting, is just because he does that, does not mean he avoids getting HIT.
However, the bolded part is the one that seems knee-jerk and shortsighted to me. Peyton has been an incredible quarterback for MANY years. Alex has had one really good year. Looking at nothing else, Peyton is the safer of the two. Montana was someone who was able to battle through similar late-career injuries and be successful in a drastically different environment. Manning has an extremely cerebral nature, and his knowledge of football would allow him to be successful elsewhere. Brett Favre is the closest we have to someone of Manning's caliber (speaking in today's NFL, obviously Montana was at that level but that's nearly 20 years ago now) swapping teams, and the Vikings made that move after a fairly successful 10-6 season and despite them getting decent production out of Jackson for the first time ever. The Vikings made it to the next level (NFC Championship Game, where they lost due to an injured Favre against the Bounty Hunters) But just as there's no guarantee that Peyton would be that successful here, there's no guarantee that with a difficult schedule against the same pass-rushers, that Alex will be just as successful either (including duplicating his turnover-rate, which was phenomenal). There's certainly more than enough reason to say that we DON'T know which Alex will show up next season.
However, I think the best point that was made was the mobility factor (which someone brought up earlier), not for the fact that Peyton might get injured, but because of how much mobility is required in this offense, because buying time is hugely necessary. As it stands, we have no wide receiver that can get separation. Peyton getting rid of the ball quicker means little when our receivers struggle at getting initial separation from the cornerbacks. Signing Manning to the contract that he's likely to receive will also likely completely remove getting that receiver, as well as removing a strong part of our defense (Rogers). For those reasons - I'd prefer to stick with Smith on the short deal (3-years was what I had hoped as a max for this one). But for everyone acting like the Manning talk is entirely unwarranted...I'm thinking that's a bit too harsh a reaction. It's not like we have a guaranteed top 5 starter already at the position, and someone of Manning's caliber (Top 5...ever?) clearly doesn't come around often.
I don't think losing out on one or the other, or for that matter signing one or the other, necessarily says anything about our chances for the upcoming season.
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RedNGoldinSoCal
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 1138
Location: ATX via NorCal via SoCal
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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| y2lamanaki wrote: | | RedNGoldinSoCal wrote: | Clay Matthews
Jason Pierre-Paul'
Osi Umenyiora
Ndamukong Suh
Nick Fairley
Julius Peppers
Chris Clemons
Calais Campbell
Chris Long
Jared Allen
Those are some of the pass rushers that we are gonna face next year. We were top 3 in the NFL in sacks allowed last year. That looks to me like a lot of chances for Peyton Manning to be a really big cap hit that we get nothing from. CK785 hit it on the head. Signing Peyton would be knee-jerk, shortsighted, Madden-esque GM-ing. We will know exactly what we are getting with Alex next year, I don't think the same can be said for Peyton. |
I agree with the danger of having Peyton go up against those rushers with our line. Make no mistake about it - Peyton DOES get the ball out so quickly as to avoid sacks. But I think what everyone else is forgetting, is just because he does that, does not mean he avoids getting HIT.
However, the bolded part is the one that seems knee-jerk and shortsighted to me. Peyton has been an incredible quarterback for MANY years. Alex has had one really good year. Looking at nothing else, Peyton is the safer of the two. Montana was someone who was able to battle through similar late-career injuries and be successful in a drastically different environment. Manning has an extremely cerebral nature, and his knowledge of football would allow him to be successful elsewhere. Brett Favre is the closest we have to someone of Manning's caliber (speaking in today's NFL, obviously Montana was at that level but that's nearly 20 years ago now) swapping teams, and the Vikings made that move after a fairly successful 10-6 season and despite them getting decent production out of Jackson for the first time ever. The Vikings made it to the next level (NFC Championship Game, where they lost due to an injured Favre against the Bounty Hunters) But just as there's no guarantee that Peyton would be that successful here, there's no guarantee that with a difficult schedule against the same pass-rushers, that Alex will be just as successful either (including duplicating his turnover-rate, which was phenomenal). There's certainly more than enough reason to say that we DON'T know which Alex will show up next season.
However, I think the best point that was made was the mobility factor (which someone brought up earlier), not for the fact that Peyton might get injured, but because of how much mobility is required in this offense, because buying time is hugely necessary. As it stands, we have no wide receiver that can get separation. Peyton getting rid of the ball quicker means little when our receivers struggle at getting initial separation from the cornerbacks. Signing Manning to the contract that he's likely to receive will also likely completely remove getting that receiver, as well as removing a strong part of our defense (Rogers). For those reasons - I'd prefer to stick with Smith on the short deal (3-years was what I had hoped as a max for this one). But for everyone acting like the Manning talk is entirely unwarranted...I'm thinking that's a bit too harsh a reaction. It's not like we have a guaranteed top 5 starter already at the position, and someone of Manning's caliber (Top 5...ever?) clearly doesn't come around often.
I don't think losing out on one or the other, or for that matter signing one or the other, necessarily says anything about our chances for the upcoming season. |
I was speaking mostly from a health standpoint with my original comment. We can speculate all we want but we wouldn't know what we were getting in Peyton until we had already sunk the cost, which to me, seems like too steep of a gamble when we can reasonably expect Alex to improve in his 2nd year in the same system. His turnover numbers would be hard to duplicate again, but I think we all would accept 10 int's if it came with 25-30 TD's.
If our QB situation was hopeless like MIA, or WAS, or AZ, I'd be much more interested in taking the risk, but given last year's performance, and the pieces that are returning, the odds of Alex at least approximating his success last year seem much higher than Peyton coming in, mastering a new offense, staying healthy for a whole season, and being productive with our current WR corps.
At the end of the day, it seems like we agree on the ends, but not the means...
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SoCalNiner
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 18614
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | Alex Smith contract: What's the snag?
| Quote: | | The 49ers don't just have an offer on the table for Alex Smith, as reported by NFL Network and CSN Bay Area, it's been on the table for some time. So what's the hold up? Smith has been exceedingly open about wanting to return to the 49ers while the 49ers - namely, Jim Harbaugh -- have been even more effusive in their desire to have him back. It should have been done by now, right? According to a source with knowledge of the negotiations, the snag is the length of the deal, and with it the amount of guaranteed money. The 49ers are offering a shorter-term deal, believed to be three years. Smith's agent, Tom Condon, is pushing for a longer deal, believed to be five years. |
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/03/alex-smith-contract-whats-the-snag.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy |
Judging from the past, we're not removing that contract off the table. Our FO likes to stick with the first contract and will make small tweaks, but nothing like adding two years. I'm sure Alex is drooling to sign the deal, it's just Condon holding him back hoping for a couple more years. (Not drooling at the money, but coming back to Harbaugh). Alex doesn't have much leverage here, I'm hoping he does what makes sense and signs the deal already.
On the subject of Manning, there's no way we sign him. It's just not our MO, sure we tried Warner, but I'm sure our FO knew we had no shot. There's no doubt that Manning would want to sign with us if we give him the opportunity, but it just won't happen. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we bring him in. It's a win-win, we get a chance to see how he is, and it pressures Alex to sign him deal a lot quicker.
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y2lamanaki
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
Posts: 8621
Location: Lancaster, PA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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| RedNGoldinSoCal wrote: | I was speaking mostly from a health standpoint with my original comment. We can speculate all we want but we wouldn't know what we were getting in Peyton until we had already sunk the cost, which to me, seems like too steep of a gamble when we can reasonably expect Alex to improve in his 2nd year in the same system. His turnover numbers would be hard to duplicate again, but I think we all would accept 10 int's if it came with 25-30 TD's.
If our QB situation was hopeless like MIA, or WAS, or AZ, I'd be much more interested in taking the risk, but given last year's performance, and the pieces that are returning, the odds of Alex at least approximating his success last year seem much higher than Peyton coming in, mastering a new offense, staying healthy for a whole season, and being productive with our current WR corps.
At the end of the day, it seems like we agree on the ends, but not the means... |
You bring up very valid points about Peyton's health, and your last sentence is accurate. However, I would not have the SLIGHTEST worry about Peyton mastering a new offense. After all, he and Alex have the same cerebral nature when it comes to learning an offense, and Alex learned the new offense last year without having an offseason. If for some reason we did go the Manning route (highly doubtful in my mind), I would think he would get through it impeccably well (as a rookie, the only time he experienced a new offense, he did throw for 3700 yards and 26 touchdowns, and this was before he understood all the nuances of playing the position or how to read NFL defenses). As it is, Alex is our guy, and I think the second year will allow him to maybe be a bit more inventive with the football which is when he really looks at his best (see Saints playoff game).
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Psychlone
Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Posts: 3071
Location: Marin County, CA.
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| Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:21 am Post subject: |
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My better senses is telling me not to post this article but it is an open forum... Lowell Cohn at his finest. Basically saying if we don't want to sign Manning, it's because we don't want to win the Super Bowl, management is cheap, Harbaugh is intimidated by Manning, Harbaugh was a mean boy to Cohn at a prior press conference, etc... This might be a tough read even for those who are Alex averse. 
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120307/sports/120309592?p=1&tc=pg
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big9erfan
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 10685
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| Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:27 am Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | Alex Smith contract: What's the snag?
| Quote: | | The 49ers don't just have an offer on the table for Alex Smith, as reported by NFL Network and CSN Bay Area, it's been on the table for some time. So what's the hold up? Smith has been exceedingly open about wanting to return to the 49ers while the 49ers - namely, Jim Harbaugh -- have been even more effusive in their desire to have him back. It should have been done by now, right? According to a source with knowledge of the negotiations, the snag is the length of the deal, and with it the amount of guaranteed money. The 49ers are offering a shorter-term deal, believed to be three years. Smith's agent, Tom Condon, is pushing for a longer deal, believed to be five years. |
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/03/alex-smith-contract-whats-the-snag.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy |
I kind of thought this would be the problem. I love Kap and think he'll be ready to take over in a year or two - and probably be better. So I'm sure we're not wanting to sign him to a long term contract. I guess the contract question might be - is anyone willing to do that. If so, we might have some competition for him.
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