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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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 Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:47 pm Post subject: Draft By Tier |
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Thinking about the draft, I always think of things in tiers because information is so limited for non-league folks. I'd assume that actual information is as limited in league, but you get a better feel with more access to film (or some access to film depending on how loose you are with calling YouTube film).
I gathered my top 50 players overall based on a few lists and did my best to split the list into 7 tiers.
Tier 1 - Never going to happen. Certainly gone. (9 players)
Tier 2 - Nearly certain to be gone, but a trade is possible. (7 players)
Tier 3 - Not likely to be there, but could be. (7 players)
Tier 4 - Value fits in Packer's draft range. Positional fit. (9 players)
Tier 5 - Value reach at 28, but would not surprise to see them go there or shortly after. (4 players)
Tier 6 - Not a value or positional fit. (12 players)
Tier 7 - Could be in play for 2nd round choice. (2 players)
Here they are (in no certain order):
Tier 1
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Trent Richardson
Matt Kalil
Justin Blackmon
Morris Claiborne
Quinton Coples
Melvin Ingram
Ryan Tannehill
Tier 2
David DeCastro
Michael Brockers
Riley Reiff
Dre Kirkpatrick
Michael Floyd
Fletcher Cox
Stephon Gilmore
Tier 3
Luke Kuechly
Courtney Upshaw
Dontari Poe
Janoris Jenkins
Mark Barron
Jonathan Martin
Whitney Mercilus
Tier 4
Nick Perry
Jarel Worthy
Devon Still
Dont'a Hightower
Kendall Reyes
Andre Branch
Zach Brown
Shea McClellin
Peter Konz
Tier 5
Kevin Zietler
Vinny Curry
Harrison Smith
Brandon Thompson
Tier 6
Cordy Glenn
Stephen Hill
Alston Jeffery
Kendall Wright
Coby Fleener
Dwayne Allen
Rueben Randle
Mike Adams
Chandler Jones
Amini Silatolu
Orson Charles
Lavonte David
Tier 7
Lamar Miller
Doug Martin
The thing that I watch for on draft day is how many guys from Tier 6 start leapfrogging to be picked before the Packers' choice. Once those guys start going, tier 3 guys begin to drop. That is when a trade could go down (also if tier 3 & 4 go before tier 2, but that is a bigger move) and/or when value players begin to drop.
If you get a chance to comment, please do or, better yet, post your own.
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I Am Rodgers
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 6403
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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Mine would be similar. I would put Worthy in tier 5, Zach Brown in tier 6 (don't think he fits at all), and I would put David Wilson over Lamar Miller in tier 7. Dwayne Allen I'd also put in tier 7 with Fleener.
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PossibleCabbage
Joined: 25 Apr 2011
Posts: 2450
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:54 pm Post subject: |
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Do you have Kendall Wright in Tier 6 just because he's a WR and we don't need one of those? Since I agree, but you could say the same for Floyd and Blackmon and I think Wright is a better schematic fit with the Packers than either of those two.
Did all WRs who you're not certain will be gone at #28 end up in tier six for that reason?
I could actually see TT taking Wright, and it kind of scares me. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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| PossibleCabbage wrote: | Do you have Kendall Wright in Tier 6 just because he's a WR and we don't need one of those? Since I agree, but you could say the same for Floyd and Blackmon and I think Wright is a better schematic fit with the Packers than either of those two.
Did all WRs who you're not certain will be gone at #28 end up in tier six for that reason?
I could actually see TT taking Wright, and it kind of scares me. |
To answer your general question, yes, that is what I have done, but clearly, to me, after the first two WR, there aren't any first round guys.
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CWood21
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 30572
Location: 'Merica
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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I guess I rank my tiers a bit differently than you msmre, not that you're wrong.
I've got the tiers this way. Still working on my BB.
Tier 1: Blue Chip Prospects
Tier 2: Top 10 Prospects
Tier 3: Top 20 Propsects
Tier 4: First Round Prospects
Tier 5: Priority 2nd Round Propsects
Tier 6: 2nd Round Prospects
I've got 3 blue chip prospects (Luck, RGIII, and Kalil), and two Tier 2 with a couple of fringe guys there.
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| iPwn wrote: | | If I was going to blow $2,600 on a night of fun, the last thing I would be thinking to do was play skee ball. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:46 pm Post subject: |
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| CWood21 wrote: | I guess I rank my tiers a bit differently than you msmre, not that you're wrong.
I've got the tiers this way. Still working on my BB.
Tier 1: Blue Chip Prospects
Tier 2: Top 10 Prospects
Tier 3: Top 20 Propsects
Tier 4: First Round Prospects
Tier 5: Priority 2nd Round Propsects
Tier 6: 2nd Round Prospects
I've got 3 blue chip prospects (Luck, RGIII, and Kalil), and two Tier 2 with a couple of fringe guys there. |
So you have 5 players going in the top 10?
Not that I am saying you are wrong, but 5 teams haven't passed in top ten in recent memory.
I also contend that Kalil isn't a blue chip guy and likely in a decent OT year, isn't even a top guy. Richardson, however, should get in that blue chip group. He is an absolute stud.
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skibrett15
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1042
Location: nibelheim
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: | | CWood21 wrote: | I guess I rank my tiers a bit differently than you msmre, not that you're wrong.
I've got the tiers this way. Still working on my BB.
Tier 1: Blue Chip Prospects
Tier 2: Top 10 Prospects
Tier 3: Top 20 Propsects
Tier 4: First Round Prospects
Tier 5: Priority 2nd Round Propsects
Tier 6: 2nd Round Prospects
I've got 3 blue chip prospects (Luck, RGIII, and Kalil), and two Tier 2 with a couple of fringe guys there. |
So you have 5 players going in the top 10?
Not that I am saying you are wrong, but 5 teams haven't passed in top ten in recent memory.
I also contend that Kalil isn't a blue chip guy and likely in a decent OT year, isn't even a top guy. Richardson, however, should get in that blue chip group. He is an absolute stud. |
I think the problem with "top 10" or "2nd round pick" is that it has been institutionalized into meaning something other than "player drafted in top 10 slots" or "player drafted 33-64"
Accepting those terms... all he's saying is that yours are more team fit tiers whereas his are more fit independent tiers.
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Polaris
Joined: 25 Dec 2006
Posts: 3030
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:57 pm Post subject: |
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This tiering appears very well thought out and fundamentally sound. I would have little or nothing to disagree with on your first four tiers.
Obviously, if anybody from Tier 3 fell to us they'd be enormously attractive at #28. Depending who who from Tier 4 is still available at #28 we might be able to get a very good player (Kendell Reyes or Donta Hightower or Shea McClellin).
After months of pre-draft workouts we're finally starting to distill this down to a pretty small pool of candidates at #28. |
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Bizzle
Joined: 04 Jan 2010
Posts: 199
Location: Eau Cleazy
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:32 pm Post subject: |
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Using Msme criteria:
Tier 1 - Never going to happen. Certainly gone. (13 players)
Tier 2 - Nearly certain to be gone, but a trade is possible. (3 players)
Tier 3 - Not likely to be there, but could be. (4 players)
Tier 4 - Value fits in Packer's draft range. Positional fit. (18 players)
Tier 5 - Value reach at 28, but would not surprise to see them go there or shortly after. (6 players)
Tier 6 - Not a value or positional fit. (7 players)
Tier 7 - Could be in play for 2nd round choice. (11 players)
Tier 1
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Trent Richardson
Morris Claiborne
Matt Kalil
Justin Blackmon
David DeCastro
Melvin Ingram
Luke Kuechly
Riley Reiff
Fletcher Cox
Ryan Tannehill
Michael Floyd
Tier 2
Michael Brockers
Dre Kirkpatrick
Mark Barron
Tier 3
Courtney Upshaw
Stephon Gilmore
Dontari Poe
Nick Perry
Tier 4
Brandon Thompson
Shea McClellin
Coby Fleener
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Devon Still
Dont'a Hightower
Chandler Jones
Janoris Jenkins
Jonathan Martin
Peter Konz
Jerel Worthy
Whitney Mercilus
Amini Silatolu
Mike Adams
Harrison Smith
Cordy Glenn
Andre Branch
Tier 5
Kendall Reyes
Vinny Curry
Ronnell Lewis
Kendall Wright
Kelechi Osemele
Brandon Taylor
Tier 6
Quinton Coples
Stephen Hill
Alshon Jeffery
Muhommed Sanu
Dwayne Allen
Rueben Randle
Lavonte David
Tier 7
Lamar Miller
Kevin Zietler
Sean Spence
Orson Charles
Zach Brown
Josh Robinson
Bruce Irving
Trumaine Johnson
Brandon Brooks
Juron Criner
Alfonzo Dennard
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Last edited by Bizzle on Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:34 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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CWood21
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 30572
Location: 'Merica
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:34 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: | So you have 5 players going in the top 10?
Not that I am saying you are wrong, but 5 teams haven't passed in top ten in recent memory.
I also contend that Kalil isn't a blue chip guy and likely in a decent OT year, isn't even a top guy. Richardson, however, should get in that blue chip group. He is an absolute stud. |
No, that's where I value them. Correction, I've got three top ten players. I think there are five players that are "worthy" of top ten picks, so if you're on the outside looking in, I think you need to explore moving down. A certain pick every year isn't the same value. When the tier dries up, you've got to go to that next tier because that's where the highest ranked talent is. The seventh pick in this year's draft isn't worth the same as say the seventh pick in say the 2009 draft.
I guess I like Matt Kalil quite a bit, and the bloodlines really pushes him up for me. I can see why people don't think he's a blue chip prospect, but I think he's a superior prospect to former offensive tackles like Jake Long or Jason Smith. Remember, he kept Tyron Smith on the right side and Smith had a pretty good year last year for the Cowboys.
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| iPwn wrote: | | If I was going to blow $2,600 on a night of fun, the last thing I would be thinking to do was play skee ball. |
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PossibleCabbage
Joined: 25 Apr 2011
Posts: 2450
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:51 pm Post subject: |
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| CWood21 wrote: | I guess I rank my tiers a bit differently than you msmre, not that you're wrong.
I've got the tiers this way. Still working on my BB.
Tier 1: Blue Chip Prospects
Tier 2: Top 10 Prospects
Tier 3: Top 20 Propsects
Tier 4: First Round Prospects
Tier 5: Priority 2nd Round Propsects
Tier 6: 2nd Round Prospects |
When I actually do my draft boards I usually do it like:
Tier 1 (Elite prospects)
Tier 2 (High first round prospects)
Tier 3 (Late First, High Second)
Tier 4 (Late 2nd or Third round)
Tier 5 (4th and 5th round)
Tier 6 (6th and 7th round)
Tier 7 (Priority Free Agents)
But msmre's tiers are totally valid if what we're interested in is what the Packers will do with their first pick or couple of picks and similar to what Bob McGinn does in his "quotes from scouts" articles. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:11 am Post subject: |
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| skibrett15 wrote: |
I think the problem with "top 10" or "2nd round pick" is that it has been institutionalized into meaning something other than "player drafted in top 10 slots" or "player drafted 33-64"
Accepting those terms... all he's saying is that yours are more team fit tiers whereas his are more fit independent tiers. |
I have a hard time that a description of "top 10 pick" or "2nd round pick" mean anything but someone picked in the top 10 or in the 2nd round. I have an even harder time believing that some we have been brainwashed into thinking that words mean what they are defined as as a construct of our environment.
I also dispute the notion purported by Mayock and those who copy his lingo and repeat his sentiments as if they are their own that every year there are fewer than 10 top 10 players. At somepoint, the average # of top 10 players is 10 per year. At the rate in which Mayock and his copycats talk, the top 10 has shrunk to 5.
Let's face it. It gives Mayock something to discuss and gives those who parrot him, something new to add to the "tight hips", "waist bender", etc. phraseology that they can't define or identify.
Boom. Rant over.
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palmy50
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 12556
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:22 am Post subject: |
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Your a funny guy msmre! One of those cats I would be scared to have a few drinks with because I just know we would end up in a scrap..... 
Just sayin. Your stone cold my friend, stone cold.
I tend to let "those guy" have their fun. Just a matter of time before they show their hand, ya know.
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gizmo2012
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2345
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| I really like what you have done here. I know you can argue about who belongs in each tier but you do provide a good overview of who might be available and where they will be slotted if the Packers attempt to move up. What I got out of your list was 'is there a player in tier 2 worth the Packers giving up their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for. My opinion is no. Tier 3 players, if the Packers want to move up, might be a possibility but even that requires giving up a lot of high picks. For example, pick 20 is worth 850 points and pick 28 is worth 660 points. Pick 28 in round 2 is worth 300 points so do the math. My conclusion is pick 28 is probably not worth moving up to tier 3 but perhaps TT might move up in tier 4 to take a guy he is targeting, but that likely means giving up a 3rd round pick so even that move is doubtful. I hope you get where I'm going here. |
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PossibleCabbage
Joined: 25 Apr 2011
Posts: 2450
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:54 am Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: |
I have a hard time that a description of "top 10 pick" or "2nd round pick" mean anything but someone picked in the top 10 or in the 2nd round. I have an even harder time believing that some we have been brainwashed into thinking that words mean what they are defined as as a construct of our environment. |
I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
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