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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
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Location: Chicago, IL
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 Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| PossibleCabbage wrote: | | msmre wrote: |
I have a hard time that a description of "top 10 pick" or "2nd round pick" mean anything but someone picked in the top 10 or in the 2nd round. I have an even harder time believing that some we have been brainwashed into thinking that words mean what they are defined as as a construct of our environment. |
I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
I believe that most people do this to appear as if their eye is more discerning. A pragmatist will tell you that in your example, if you like no one at #9 and no one else is willing to take your pick, then the guy you drafted at #9 is a top 10 guy.
| palmy50 wrote: | Your a funny guy msmre! One of those cats I would be scared to have a few drinks with because I just know we would end up in a scrap..... Laughing
Just sayin. Your stone cold my friend, stone cold.
I tend to let "those guy" have their fun. Just a matter of time before they show their hand, ya know. |
You are right, I do not suffer fools. I dabble in physical pacifism though. No winning being a big dude (or former big dude) in a fight, either you are a bully or a pansy depending on the result.
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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When I look at tiers two and three. I think of guys who start to drop and what to give up to get them. Looking at these tiers, I'll star guys that I think that GB would move up to get if the price was right.
Tier 2
David DeCastro
Michael Brockers*
Riley Reiff
Dre Kirkpatrick*
Michael Floyd
Fletcher Cox*
Stephon Gilmore*
Tier 3
Luke Kuechly
Courtney Upshaw
Dontari Poe
Janoris Jenkins
Mark Barron
Jonathan Martin
Whitney Mercilus
Looking at tier three, I don't think that anyone in that tier would warrant a move from the Pack. I do not think that any of these guys present sufficient enough advantage over tier 4 to give up a pick. Upshaw would be the closest, but I am not convinced that he is an OLB, so giving up more than the pick with which he is chosen is iffy.
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incognito_man
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 26369
Location: Madison
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: |
You are right, I do not suffer fools. I dabble in physical pacifism though. No winning being a big dude (or former big dude) in a fight, either you are a bully or a pansy depending on the result. |
and we all know what that would be, wouldn't we 'ms "ladyfists" mre'? |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| incognito_man wrote: | | msmre wrote: |
You are right, I do not suffer fools. I dabble in physical pacifism though. No winning being a big dude (or former big dude) in a fight, either you are a bully or a pansy depending on the result. |
and we all know what that would be, wouldn't we 'ms "ladyfists" mre'? |
I think that you mean Ms. "Slapfighter" Mre
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palmy50
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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This thing has gone down a truly wonderful path..... 
Have not been in a fight since I was in my mid 20's. Those were good times though. It's funny how you handle jerks differently after you have kids to feed at home. Still, got me thinking about some stuff that has not crossed my mind in years. Damn I'm getting old!
Edit: that is not to say you are a "jerk" msmre!
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Sandybaby716
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3526
Location: Rhode Island
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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I recently worked out my first four tiers. There are a few major discrepancies from the "experts" but They are positions I feel very strongly about. I'll make notes for the most questionable ones.
Tier 1: Elite players who should not fall out the top ten
1. Andrew Luck
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Matt Kahlil
4. Morris Claibourne
5. Trent Richardson
Tier 2: Obvious first rounders with something holding them back from elite
6. Justin Blackmon
7. Melvin Ingram
8. Luke Keichley
9. David DeCastro
10. Dontari Poe Not always a numbers guy but athletes like him are rare
11. Courtney Upshaw
12. Janoris Jenkins his history strikes me as one of a kid who made mistakes, not a bad person
13. Fletcher Cox
14. Quinton Coples
15. Michael Floyd
16. Riley Reiff
17. Michael Brockers
Tier 3: Guys who should be considered as first rounders but may not be
18. Stephon Gilmore
19. Stephen Hill like Poe, players with these skills are rare
20. Donta Hightower
21. Kendall Wright
22. Cordy Glenn
23. Jonathan Martin
24. Mark Barron
25. Dre Kirkpatrick
26. Nick Perry
27. Lavonte David
28. Whitney Mercilus
29. Peter Konz
30. Mike Adams
31. Andre Branch
32. Kendall Reyes
33. Harrison Smith
34. Orson Charles
35. Lamar Miller
36. Josh Robinson
37. Jerel Worthy
38. Doug Martin
39. Coby Fleener
40. Reuben Randle
41. Zach Brown
42. Shea McClellan
43. Devon Still
44. Russell Wilson my number 3 QB, not worried about his height at all
45. Brandon Weeden
46. Chandler Jones
Tier 4: second round prospects
47. Dwayne Allen
48. Derek Wolfe
49. Ryan Tannehill i don't get the hype
50. Amini Silatolu
51. Brock Osweiler
52. Kevin Zeitler
53. Ronnell Lewis
54. AJ Jenkins
55. Jared Crick
56. Jeff Allen
57. Vinny Curry
58. Alshon Jeffrey
59. Chase Minifield
60. David Wilson
61. Trumaine Johnson
62. Brandon Thompson
63. Mychal Kendricks
64. Billy Winn
65. Mike Martin
The third tier is very big, making up for the relatively small second and fourth tiers (normally Tiers get larger as the draft goes on, as the differences between players becomes less obvious).
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| wgbeethree wrote: | | In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party. |
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CWood21
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
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Location: 'Merica
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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| PossibleCabbage wrote: | I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
You try to trade down where you're still in the same tier as before. If you can't, you obviously pick whoever you like best on that tier.
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| iPwn wrote: | | If I was going to blow $2,600 on a night of fun, the last thing I would be thinking to do was play skee ball. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
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Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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| CWood21 wrote: | | PossibleCabbage wrote: | I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
You try to trade down where you're still in the same tier as before. If you can't, you obviously pick whoever you like best on that tier. |
That is like saying, "anybody want to buy my VCR?"
Who wants to pay top 10 rates for a top 20 guy? I've never seen someone who uses "top 10 pick" for 5 guys use it for 15 in a different year. That is a problem because "top 10" just became ""top ten"" and ten stopped meaning 10 and started meaning whatever the parrot wants it to mean.
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PossibleCabbage
Joined: 25 Apr 2011
Posts: 2442
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: | | CWood21 wrote: | | PossibleCabbage wrote: | I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
You try to trade down where you're still in the same tier as before. If you can't, you obviously pick whoever you like best on that tier. |
That is like saying, "anybody want to buy my VCR?"
Who wants to pay top 10 rates for a top 20 guy? I've never seen someone who uses "top 10 pick" for 5 guys use it for 15 in a different year. That is a problem because "top 10" just became ""top ten"" and ten stopped meaning 10 and started meaning whatever the parrot wants it to mean. |
I think the real issue is that sure, there's a top tier of guys. But since that top tier of guys may number less than 10, or more than 10, "Top 10" is a terrible name for that tier of guys. Terminology should be, at the very least, descriptive.
"Where the first talent drop-off occurs" is much more interesting than "these are the ten players I like the best" anyway. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
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Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| PossibleCabbage wrote: | | msmre wrote: | | CWood21 wrote: | | PossibleCabbage wrote: | I always interpreted the "there are fewer than 10 guys in the top 10 tier" phenomenon as "these are the guys I would take with a top 10 pick". Which does sort of raise the question of "what do you do if you're picking 8th and all 6 of your 'top 10' guys are gone"? Furiously try to trade down because you're afraid of "reaching"?
Sit on your hands and pass your pick until you can pick 11th? |
You try to trade down where you're still in the same tier as before. If you can't, you obviously pick whoever you like best on that tier. |
That is like saying, "anybody want to buy my VCR?"
Who wants to pay top 10 rates for a top 20 guy? I've never seen someone who uses "top 10 pick" for 5 guys use it for 15 in a different year. That is a problem because "top 10" just became ""top ten"" and ten stopped meaning 10 and started meaning whatever the parrot wants it to mean. |
I think the real issue is that sure, there's a top tier of guys. But since that top tier of guys may number less than 10, or more than 10, "Top 10" is a terrible name for that tier of guys. Terminology should be, at the very least, descriptive.
"Where the first talent drop-off occurs" is much more interesting than "these are the ten players I like the best" anyway. |
I am glad that at least a few people get the difference between the two.
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CWood21
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
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Location: 'Merica
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: | That is like saying, "anybody want to buy my VCR?"
Who wants to pay top 10 rates for a top 20 guy? I've never seen someone who uses "top 10 pick" for 5 guys use it for 15 in a different year. That is a problem because "top 10" just became ""top ten"" and ten stopped meaning 10 and started meaning whatever the parrot wants it to mean. |
Nobody said you had to get full value and then some when trading down? Hell, if I've got ten to fifteen players on a given tier, I'm willing to take a bit of a below-market deal to move down and acquire more picks. Generally, the more picks you have, the better your odds of finding good players. It's like buying multiple lottery tickets. My labels are no different than labeling guys as "franchise cornerstones" or "career backups". The only thing I do differently is assign value to them based on where in a perfect world, they should go. My second tier kicks in ASSUMING there are five guys in that first tier.
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| iPwn wrote: | | If I was going to blow $2,600 on a night of fun, the last thing I would be thinking to do was play skee ball. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| CWood21 wrote: | | Generally, the more picks you have, the better your odds of finding good players. It's like buying multiple lottery tickets. |
Indeed. And to your point. Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, right? Since there are two teams and one winner?
Oh NFL, you so random.
| CWood21 wrote: | | My labels are no different than labeling guys as "franchise cornerstones" or "career backups". The only thing I do differently is assign value to them based on where in a perfect world, they should go. My second tier kicks in ASSUMING there are five guys in that first tier. |
Actually, they are. When you say top 10, you are assigning a number of participants. It is like saying a 55 mph speed limit is just saying drive fast, but not too fast. No. It means drive no faster than 55 mph. It is simple.
Maybe not simple enough.
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CWood21
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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| msmre wrote: | Indeed. And to your point. Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, right? Since there are two teams and one winner?
Oh NFL, you so random. |
No, but any given team can win on any given Sunday. Heck, did you honestly think that the Chiefs would neutralize the Packers offense and end up winning the game? Do you think that if last year's Steelers and Broncos teams faced again, that the Broncos would be victorious? We've seen time and time again "lesser" teams beat superior teams. If you put all your hope into one guy, what happens when he busts? You're left with nothing to show from that draft. Now if you've got five or six guys you can hold your draft on, odds are that not all of them bust. Only a handful of teams can actually afford to make a massive trade up and give away the majority of the picks.
| msmre wrote: | Actually, they are. When you say top 10, you are assigning a number of participants. It is like saying a 55 mph speed limit is just saying drive fast, but not too fast. No. It means drive no faster than 55 mph. It is simple.
Maybe not simple enough. |
Call them whatever you want. Call them monkey, call them elephant, I don't really honestly care. When I go through my rankings, I go with the guys I feel are going to be franchise cornerstones and put them in a tier together. After that tier is done, I go to that next tier of potential franchise cornerstones but have flaws that keep them from being in that first tier. Rinse and repeat. You're getting too caught up in the labels of the tier that you're missing the point I've been trying to illustrate. Each tier has it's value come up when the tier before it has dried up. For example, if the first three picks are Luck, RGIII, and Richardson. That has Kalil as the only player left from my first tier. If someone is willing to trade up to where you are, without you missing out on the prospect on that second tier you would prefer. So if the Browns could trade down to ten, and they think they can get their guy there they should try and negotiate to make that trade. If they don't feel their guy is there or they can't come up with a trade, they just go ahead and make that pick. It's a big moving part, so I'm not sure why you're trying to put blinders on.
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| iPwn wrote: | | If I was going to blow $2,600 on a night of fun, the last thing I would be thinking to do was play skee ball. |
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msmre
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20329
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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| CWood21 wrote: | | msmre wrote: | Indeed. And to your point. Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, right? Since there are two teams and one winner?
Oh NFL, you so random. |
No, but any given team can win on any given Sunday. Heck, did you honestly think that the Chiefs would neutralize the Packers offense and end up winning the game? Do you think that if last year's Steelers and Broncos teams faced again, that the Broncos would be victorious? We've seen time and time again "lesser" teams beat superior teams. If you put all your hope into one guy, what happens when he busts? You're left with nothing to show from that draft. Now if you've got five or six guys you can hold your draft on, odds are that not all of them bust. Only a handful of teams can actually afford to make a massive trade up and give away the majority of the picks.
| msmre wrote: | Actually, they are. When you say top 10, you are assigning a number of participants. It is like saying a 55 mph speed limit is just saying drive fast, but not too fast. No. It means drive no faster than 55 mph. It is simple.
Maybe not simple enough. |
Call them whatever you want. Call them monkey, call them elephant, I don't really honestly care. When I go through my rankings, I go with the guys I feel are going to be franchise cornerstones and put them in a tier together. After that tier is done, I go to that next tier of potential franchise cornerstones but have flaws that keep them from being in that first tier. Rinse and repeat. You're getting too caught up in the labels of the tier that you're missing the point I've been trying to illustrate. Each tier has it's value come up when the tier before it has dried up. For example, if the first three picks are Luck, RGIII, and Richardson. That has Kalil as the only player left from my first tier. If someone is willing to trade up to where you are, without you missing out on the prospect on that second tier you would prefer. So if the Browns could trade down to ten, and they think they can get their guy there they should try and negotiate to make that trade. If they don't feel their guy is there or they can't come up with a trade, they just go ahead and make that pick. It's a big moving part, so I'm not sure why you're trying to put blinders on. |
I hope two things:
1.) That you don't believe that "any given Sunday" is the same as buying more lottery tickets.
2.) That you don't honestly believe that someone believing that 10 is one more than 9 and not that ten is equivalent to first tier is "putting blinders on".
Maybe you should stop now.
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palmy50
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 12503
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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This is some damn fine reading right here.
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