Trigger Points of Round 1

[msmre]

Now, we have heard it for 7 years that Green Bay drafts the best player available. That is fine and has worked well. What I want to see this year is a player added to the front seven. I am not saying that it will or should happen, just what I want to happen. Would I be upset at any pick? No. I would even be tremendously pleased in Kirkpatrick or Gilmore drop to Green Bay. The real question is will there be a player of value at #28 when the pick arrives.

There are critical points, some expected and some unexpected, when you might get a hint of who might be available come pick #28. I thought that I would throw my ideas out onto which picks will be most telling throughout round 1.

Pick 7: If the Packers want a pass rusher and the Jags start the run with Ingram, things could go South in a hurry for those looking at OLB. If Pick 7 comes and goes with no OLB and DL gone, the Packers' chances at getting either go up substantially.

Picks 11 or 12: If one or neither team pick a OLB/DL type player here, the Packers again gain advantage of numbers. If both pick them or Jax and one of them pick one, the chances get far worse.

Pick 24: By this time, I expect the Cox, Ingram, Brockers, and another DE/OLB type are gone. Pittsburgh is in the market for a DL here and if they get one, it may be the last of the top shelf talent at DL before the next tier of Worthy, Still, etc. goes.

Pick 27: Clearly NE has similar defensive needs as GB does and actually runs a slightly different look, which may help. Either way, I am sure that they go pass rush here, but it could come from DE or OLB. My guess is that whichever way they will go, they will cash out that position value wise and the Packers will be forced to go the other way.

Right now given all of this, I think that GB is probably going to have a shot at 3 of Poe, Perry, Branch, Hightower and Upshaw. Not sure about McClellin and pretty certainly not Mercilus.

Any thoughts?
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[incognito_man]

Another pick I am looking forward to is to see what Cleveland does at 22. I'm really hoping they pick a QB there. That or someone trades into the 20s to grab the 4th QB off the board.

I'm not sure this will make another defensive player fall for certain, but it's a pick I'm keying on as well.

[I Am Rodgers]

I think some key spots are our division rivals. Vikings OL vs CB. Chicago DL vs OL/WR and Detroit DB/DE vs OL.
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[RiotPunch]

I really, really think Jax trades out of that 7 spot for someone wanting to jump in and grab Tannehill ahead of Miami and then take Floyd at a later pick.

Also, knowing Holmgren, he'll likely go Richardson or Claiborne at 4 and a RT at 22.
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[fattlipp]

There will be options there.

One of following will be there
DL: Cox/Poe/Brockers/Still/Worthly
OLB: Ingram/Upshaw/Mercilus/Perry/Jones/Hightower
CB: Kirpatrick/Gilmore
S: Barron/Smith
C: Konz

we probably will have our choice of 3-4 of those player.

[msmre]

[luke4047]

I agree that the real tipping point is Jacksonville and if they choose to go for a pass rusher (trade down or not). The Jets at 16 and Chargers at 18 could snatch two players the Packers would consider at 28.

As someone noted earlier, the Bears (19) and Lions (23) could be in the market for a pass rusher. I'm hoping they value Mercilus, Perry, and Jones for the 4-3 over Upshaw and McClellin. That would potentially leave Upshaw, McClellin, and one of the other 3 (Mercilus, Perry, and Jones) to fall to the Patriots.

[CWood21]

I'd really rather not see Gilmore in Green Bay, he's going to have to get moved to safety sooner rather than later IMO.

I feel like San Diego could be a trigger point.
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^sandwhich on the sig^

[MNPackfan32]

Good write up msmre, a big key is the NFC West. STL (DT/Fletcher Cox), SEA(DE/OLB) and ARI(DE/OLB) but all those teams obviously have other needs but they could really mess up our board if they all go defense.

[CentralFC]

I have doubts that anyone of significant value will be available at #28. Maybe Shae will drop, but in my eyes, odds are that we'll see Thompson moving back into the 30s. Just my guess.
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[SDN40]

WR's are a position to watch. Lots of talk but nothing definitive. Obviously we want lots of them taken. Too bad the OT class is down. You could always count on 7-8 in the first round. Not this year.
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[CentralFC]

[luke4047]

Here's Michael Lombardi's thoughts

[CentralFC]

To answer the OP's original question:

Jacksonville, New York Jets, San Diego, and Pittsburgh will be teams of interest. There will be movement though, so everything we're discussing now will be pointless.
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[msmre]