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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:31 am    Post subject: Ponder 2012 Reply with quote

love him.
hate him.
support him.
doubt him.

this is the thread for it.




Ponder: "Now being in a position where I can comfortably say, 'This is my team,' it definitely helps. I'm so much more comfortable being where I am. It's more fun. I think it shows they have confidence in me and they are trying to establish guys around me on the offensive side. Obviously on the offensive side of the ball we have a lot of improvements to make. We have so many good guys on this team already that can go out and prove themselves, but to add additional guys that bring a lot to the table is really going to help us. It definitely means a lot."

"I was throwing post routes [to Jerome Simpson] and trying to overthrow him and I couldn't. The guy is so fast. He's so athletic. I think he's going to be a great asset to our X position. And he's a great guy. I've been hanging out with him. He's real down to earth and so athletic."

"Toby Gerhart: "Ponder is really turning into a leader. From experience, I know it's hard as a rookie. You don't know your place. You don't want to speak up or lead when you've had veterans there for a while. You haven't proven anything. This year, he's definitely taken ownership. He's being vocal. He's pushing everybody."

http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_20534836/this-is-my-team-vikings-qb-christian-ponder
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Last edited by vike daddy on Thu May 03, 2012 12:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really can't see him making the same mistakes as last year.

Ponder is very intelligent, I think thats a given. Now that he has some game expierence, and that Minnesota has put some more talent around him, along with Peterson to be healthy sooner or later, I think #7 can really go off.

One thing I do think would help him would be to change up his snap count. Too many times I think defenders predicted when the play was going to be called. If he can hardcount, similar to what Favre was doing, It would help him tremendously. He has the arm strength, and he is accurate from short to mid range. I think he has all the tools to be successful this upcoming year.

I'm excited. Smile
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[UMN]


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Historical data shows that rookie QB's struggle, 2nd year QB's are mediocre/average, and they really hit their stride in their 3rd year. Considering everything that was going against Ponder last year due to the lockout (and the OL/WR being terrible) I expect to see a noticeable jump in performance this year. However, I don't expect him to really reach his potential and shine until 2013.

Hopefully by then the OL/WR situation is looking much better, AP is fully healthy and the offense should be ready to roll.

EDIT: see--> http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=450610


Last edited by [UMN] on Thu May 03, 2012 8:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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Vikefan79


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That Toby Gerhart quote is a little off VD. Laughing
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Bermuda Viking


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm excited. As UMN pointed out it was a pretty bad situation for a rookie to step into.

Remember when Mike Tice said that Culpepper had been given the keys to the car (offense), "and it's a pretty nice car." wink-wink and everyone chuckled?

Well Ponder was handed a unicycle with a flat tire, a brokedn pedal, and yep... no seat.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[UMN] wrote:
Historical data shows that rookie QB's struggle, 2nd year QB's are mediocre/average, and they really hit their stride in their 3rd year. Considering everything that was going against Ponder last year due to the lockout (and the OL/WR being terrible) I expect to see a noticeable jump in performance this year. However, I don't expect him to really reach his potential and shine until 2013.


The recent trend for first round QBs has been for them to play well early and then level off: Flacco, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Freeman, Young — or to bust completely: Quinn, Russell, Leinart.

Matthew Stafford is really the only one of the bunch who struggled as a rookie then put it all together. And Stafford stepped into a team that went 0-16 the previous year, and he got hurt his first two seasons.

For the most part, if a QB is going to be successful in this league he shows it very early in his career.
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TearsOfPurple


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
He knows it. Teammates and coaches know it. Tapes reveal it, and Ponder is absorbing it all. He's watching footage of loss after loss, talking it over with coaches and wincing as he witnesses mistake after mistake. He can see all the times he scrambled out of the pocket too early, the bad reads and botched plays, but instead of beating himself up, Ponder is allowing those mistakes to give him hope.

"Just seeing myself on film, there's so much I can do better," Ponder said. "I get so frustrated watching myself from last year… Just watching stuff, it gives me so much more confidence that I can be so much better next year. There's so much to learn from."


I know it's "just talk". But I believe what he's saying in full.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have no reason to have any faith in Ponder, nor do I anticipate him to fail. Based upon his injury history, they better have a servicable backup QB. Ponder should be given first shot as the starting QB, but if the decision making doesnt get better, Webb should be given a chance. Ponder will get his shot as the starter this year, if he performs well he gets the job obviously. If he plays poorly and doesnt make the progression needed and MN gets a top 5 pick again, they MUST draft a new QB.

I dont think this staff can afford to be very patient with Ponder if they arent winning games. There are enough weapons to go with an improved Oline, there should be no outside excuses if he fails to make any progress.

I am indifferent, i really have no expectations for him.


Last edited by vikingsrule on Thu May 03, 2012 9:44 am; edited 2 times in total
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[UMN] wrote:
Historical data shows that rookie QB's struggle, 2nd year QB's are mediocre/average, and they really hit their stride in their 3rd year. Considering everything that was going against Ponder last year due to the lockout (and the OL/WR being terrible) I expect to see a noticeable jump in performance this year. However, I don't expect him to really reach his potential and shine until 2013.


This is where I've been at since last season. I like where this team is heading, and I hope a significant number of players (including Ponder) can step up their game, and get this team back to competitiveness in 2013 and beyond.
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[UMN]


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's take a look at how Ponder did last year compared to the average of all rookies (with 100 passing attempts) from 2000-2010:

PONDER 2011
Y/A: 6.37 -- 2.63% higher than average vs. rookies
COMP%: 54.3% -- 0.93% lower than average vs. rookies
TD%: 4.47% -- 35.1% higher than average vs. rookies
INT%: 4.47% -- 19.4% higher than average vs. rookies
QBR: 70.1 -- 4.42% higher than average vs. rookies

Overall he played better than the average rookie, although he was prone to more interceptions. He did however make up for his interceptions with a TD% that was 35% higher than other rookies.

Now let's look at how NFL QB's progressed from their 1st to 2nd year:

NFL Y2 GROWTH
Y/A: 5.6%
COMP%: 5.7%
TD%: 29.3%
INT%: -11.1%

Now if we apply those percentage increases to Ponder's rookie stats we get:

PONDER 2012
Y/A: 6.73
COMP%: 57.4%
TD%: 5.78%
INT%: 3.97%

And if we assume he has roughly 500 attempts (about average for a full-time starter) we get:

Comp: 287
Att: 500
YDS: 3364
TD: 29
INT: 20

That is a good base-line in terms of what to expect from Ponder next year. However if you consider the surrounding talent on offense compared to an "average" team, I would knock those stats down a bit.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bermuda Viking wrote:


Well Ponder was handed a unicycle with a flat tire, a brokedn pedal, and yep... no seat.


By any reasonable account Christian Ponder stepped into a situation no worse than that of Cam Newton, Andy Dalton or T.J. Yates. All of whom had much better rookie seasons.
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Swaps


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:
Bermuda Viking wrote:


Well Ponder was handed a unicycle with a flat tire, a brokedn pedal, and yep... no seat.


By any reasonable account Christian Ponder stepped into a situation no worse than that of Cam Newton, Andy Dalton or T.J. Yates. All of whom had much better rookie seasons.


So did Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker...

And T.J. Yates was a backup who played 6 games, so that is completely pointless to add.
Unless you count the post season, where he threw 3 ints and 1 td.
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Frank Costello


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ponder's first game against GB is all the faith I need. He can be a successful QB in this league given more time and weapons.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[UMN] wrote:

That is a good base-line in terms of what to expect from Ponder next year. However if you consider the surrounding talent on offense compared to an "average" team, I would knock those stats down a bit.


The really bad rookie and sophomore QBs get benched long before they see their third season. And that skews the results.

These stats are completely useless in terms of projecting future performance.
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:
Bermuda Viking wrote:


Well Ponder was handed a unicycle with a flat tire, a brokedn pedal, and yep... no seat.


By any reasonable account Christian Ponder stepped into a situation no worse than that of Cam Newton, Andy Dalton or T.J. Yates. All of whom had much better rookie seasons.


I don't think it's at all reasonable to compare these situations.

The Texans had a good offense that was held back by their D. They added JJ Watt, Jonathan Joseph, Wade Phillips, became balanced, and went on to make the play-offs.

The Bengals I'm not too updated on, so I don't know what they did in 2010, but they did add AJ Green, they have a nice TE, a good O-line, and have a pretty balanced team as well.

The Panthers were regarded as being underachievers in 2010. Having the likes of Clausen and Moore start was the nail in the coffin. Then they added two good tight-ends (Shockey/Olsen) to pair with those RB's and their decent O-line, and Steve Smith came back from the dead.

I don't mean to go off-topic and discuss other teams in depth, but the Vikings were 5-11 in 2010, then lost their starting LT and #1 WR. Then we lost our starting CB as well. All those other teams made significant steps forward before the season even started. We got stuck with Charlie Johnson, Michael Jenkins and Benny Sapp, on a team that had already regressed to the point that even Lord Favre couldn't squeeze more than 5 wins out of it.

No, they are not comparable at all.
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