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bruceb
Joined: 15 Dec 2006
Posts: 5328
Location: Rocky River, OH
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 Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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Just surfed around: We are being given the worst odds of winning our Conference and the Super Bowl. Looks like we are projected to be picking in the top 5 in the 2013 draft.
Either the bookmakers and pundits are right, or we will surprise the heck out of a lot people. Wanna bet? Do you feel lucky?
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bruceb
Joined: 15 Dec 2006
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Location: Rocky River, OH
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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Just occurred to me that if the bookmakers and pundits are anywhere near right, if we hadn't picked Weeden at #22, we probably could have traded out of that pick and gotten two more starters for this year, and been positioned to get the pick of the QB litter next year.
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nugpimpen
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 12166
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| bruceb wrote: | | Just occurred to me that if the bookmakers and pundits are anywhere near right, if we hadn't picked Weeden at #22, we probably could have traded out of that pick and gotten two more starters for this year, and been positioned to get the pick of the QB litter next year. |
What if we finish picking 1st and Weeden plays pretty decent?
I hate Barkley and think we could get a huge amount of picks for trading down.
I would do it.
God would that be a messed up situation though.
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bruceb
Joined: 15 Dec 2006
Posts: 5328
Location: Rocky River, OH
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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| nugpimpen wrote: | | bruceb wrote: | | Just occurred to me that if the bookmakers and pundits are anywhere near right, if we hadn't picked Weeden at #22, we probably could have traded out of that pick and gotten two more starters for this year, and been positioned to get the pick of the QB litter next year. |
What if we finish picking 1st and Weeden plays pretty decent?
I hate Barkley and think we could get a huge amount of picks for trading down.
I would do it.
God would that be a messed up situation though. |
In a weird way, it might be a best case!
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Estonianzulu
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 19770
Location: Middle of Nowhere VA
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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| nugpimpen wrote: |
What if we finish picking 1st and Weeden plays pretty decent?
. |
Has any team in the last decade had solid play from their quarterback and still ended up with the #1 overall pick?
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bruceb
Joined: 15 Dec 2006
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Location: Rocky River, OH
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Estonianzulu wrote: | | nugpimpen wrote: |
What if we finish picking 1st and Weeden plays pretty decent?
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Has any team in the last decade had solid play from their quarterback and still ended up with the #1 overall pick? |
As Nugpimpen so aptly pointed out earlier in this thread, this is CLE.
I any team could manage that, it probably would be ours.
Just imagine that Weeden does well for a while but gets crushed and hurt, and McCoy comes in for the rest of the season and does about as well as Wallace did last year when McCoy went down.
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brownsfan214
Joined: 02 Jan 2012
Posts: 1024
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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LOL
only thing i can come up with
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duke2056
Joined: 21 Feb 2005
Posts: 7731
Location: Cleveland area
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 12:14 am Post subject: |
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You guys do realize that these lines have NOTHING to do with how the casinos think the games will go, correct??
The simply want half the action on one team, and half the action on the other team to guarantee themselves the win with the juice.
That said, this just simply means that the general public does not favor us in any games.
So this isnt "no love" from Vegas, it's no love from ANYONE..............which is why Vegas sets the lines the way they do.
It also means more than half the general public thinks the Colts will beat us.
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Pruitt3443
Joined: 29 Dec 2011
Posts: 263
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| Estonianzulu wrote: | | nugpimpen wrote: |
What if we finish picking 1st and Weeden plays pretty decent?
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Has any team in the last decade had solid play from their quarterback and still ended up with the #1 overall pick? |
This question got me thinking and thought I would look into ita bit more.
Actually if you go back to the first overall picks since 2000, the only non-QB overall #1 picks were Courtney Brown in 2000; Mario Williams in 2005 and Jake Long in 2008.
Assuming that the other teams all drafted QBs to address that pressing need we need only look at the QB play of the 1999 Cleveland Browns, 2004 Houston Texans and 2007 Miami Dolphins.
So we had Couch's rookie year, David Carr's 3rd season of getting pummelled or the three-headed monster the Dolphins threw out there of Cleo Lemons/Trent Green and John Beck.
Tim Couch did what he could for a bad Browns expansion team and while ulitmately not the answer was surely not the biggest problem on that team. He did throw a couple more TDs than picks while being sacked 56 times.
David Carr had a few more TDs than interceptions that year and compelted just over 60% of his passes while getting sacked 68 times. But the Texans were near the bottom of the league in offense.
Lemon/Green/Beck trio threw more picks than TDs while completing about 57% of their passes. As a group they were only sacked 42 times so they got off better than either Couch or Carr in that regard.
The Dolphins QBs were journeymen at best and needed to be upgraded.
I would argue that with both Couch & Carr neither guy had any real chance to succeed as they were both in basically no-win situations playing as QBs for expansion teams that took (or in the Browns case are taking) a long time to get over the hump in terms of acquiring enough talent to be competitive.
Theoretically if future drafts and player acquisiton had gone differently for the Browns and Texans, respectively Couch and Carr may have succeeded and much different careers, but they ultimatley did not.
To answer the original question, I think ulitmately, those are the only two teams on this list where the QB play was at least somewhat solid at that point and yet they still ended up drafting #1 overall as the rest of the talent on both teams was woefully inadequate. |
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nugpimpen
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
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Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 11:29 am Post subject: |
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Like others have said.... What if Weeden comes out hot. We play a lot of tough games. Say he plays well in the first 4 games and we win 2 of those.
Say he goes down for the season and Colt or Wallace is left at the helm and we lose out.
2-14 giving us #1 overall.
If Weeden looked comfortable and good, added to the fact that I think Barkley is not a good NFL QB, i think it's the perfect storm ala the Rams.
We won't get the same type of deal because it was the Skins, but we could get alot.
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DrawABlank
Joined: 27 Dec 2009
Posts: 1753
Location: London, UK
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 11:42 am Post subject: |
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| Pruitt3443 wrote: | | To answer the original question, I think ulitmately, those are the only two teams on this list where the QB play was at least somewhat solid at that point and yet they still ended up drafting #1 overall as the rest of the talent on both teams was woefully inadequate. |
Just a quick point - San Diego in 2003 had Hall of Famers at both QB and RB and finished at 4-12 with the #1 pick.
Obviously Brees didn't play at a HoF level that year, but it's possible. |
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fsubrowns9510
Joined: 20 Feb 2008
Posts: 12526
Location: Rochester, NY
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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So if we play the odds every game and win a few is there a way we can actually make some coin?
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Pruitt3443
Joined: 29 Dec 2011
Posts: 263
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| DrawABlank wrote: | | Pruitt3443 wrote: | | To answer the original question, I think ulitmately, those are the only two teams on this list where the QB play was at least somewhat solid at that point and yet they still ended up drafting #1 overall as the rest of the talent on both teams was woefully inadequate. |
Just a quick point - San Diego in 2003 had Hall of Famers at both QB and RB and finished at 4-12 with the #1 pick.
Obviously Brees didn't play at a HoF level that year, but it's possible. |
While I grant you Drew Brees is an excellent QB now, in 2003 he played in 11 games, completed 57% of his passes for a 5.9 yards average and threw 11 TDs and 15 INTs while getting sacked 21 times. Hardly solid QB play as those numbers are worse than anything Couch or Carr did in their years in question.
If we want to view his numbers as "solid" we could certainly add him to the list of possibles but not sure I would do so.
For comparisons sake, Chris Chandler for the 2000 Falcons played in 14 games completed 58% of his passes for a 6.8 yards average with 10 TDs and 12 INTs while getting sacked 40 times. Compared to Brees in 2003 he had arguably a better season but I doubt any Falcon fan would claim he gave them “solid” QB play. |
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Mastercheddaar
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 4270
Location: Northeast Ohio.. Obviously
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 6:23 pm Post subject: hmmm |
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Is this the action as of right now? Because I'd be willing to place some bets if I were there.
that is all
Mastercheddaar
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Estonianzulu
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 19770
Location: Middle of Nowhere VA
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Pruitt3443 wrote: |
To answer the original question, I think ulitmately, those are the only two teams on this list where the QB play was at least somewhat solid at that point and yet they still ended up drafting #1 overall as the rest of the talent on both teams was woefully inadequate. |
And both of those situations are extenuating circumstances (brand new franchises). So I will go ahead and say that baring something unheard of, if we end up with the #1 pick it will be because we failed at the QB position.
And if we pass on a franchise QB because we have Brandon Weeden I will have to leave this forum for fear of ban-age due to foul language.
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