Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

Forget about Morgan... Another poor decision cost us
Goto page 1, 2, 3  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Washington Redskins
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:11 pm    Post subject: Forget about Morgan... Another poor decision cost us Reply with quote

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2012/09/19/redskins-should-have-gone-for-a-first-down-after-josh-morgans-blunder/?tid=pm_sports_pop

When we got the unsportsmanlike penalty, Mike Shanahan had a decision to make. Go for a 62 yard field goal or go for it on 4th down and 16.

Quote:
Had Cundiff made the kick, it wouldn’t have assured overtime. The Rams would have had about 1:10 to assemble a field goal drive of their own, far from impossible in today’s league. Based on win rates from the past decade of actual games, the Redskins could expect to win 46% of the time had their kick been good. Overall, that means the decision to kick gave the Redskins a (.46 * .15 = ) 7% chance of winning.

Fourth and 16 situations like that are rare. In most circumstances, conversions are successful 18% of the time. Offenses face a similar task on third and 16 too—they’re both make-or-break situations. Third down attempts are converted 17% of the time, slightly less than fourth downs. This makes sense, considering some third down and very long plays are designed to improve field position rather than convert. To be conservative, let’s settle on 17% as the chance of conversion.

Had head coach Mike Shanahan chosen to go for the first down, the gamble would have been worth a (.17 * .57 = ) 10% chance of winning.

_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
footy_29


Joined: 31 Jan 2007
Posts: 11397
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let it go...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
RSkinGM


Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 3753
Location: Richmond, Va
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and what about the extra 3 we gave them with his timeout icing the kicker .. He missed it , then made it. The 62 yard kick was a terrible , no chance in Hell, decision//. Put the ball in RG's hands left him do his best .. all u can ask.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
lavar703


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
Posts: 5482
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was one game guys. We've still got 14 more to go and RGIII has proven he can keep us in it. Mistakes were made, it's time to move on and grow from this. We have a franchise QB, the future is bright! HTTR
_________________
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.
_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
lavar703


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
Posts: 5482
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.


I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on.

The reality is Morgan made two huge mistakes on this play. The first mistake was turning the wrong way after the catch. If he simply catches the ball and gets up field he would've had the first down regardless of the action after the play, the drive would still have been alive. The other, obviously being the thrown ball.
_________________
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.


I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on.
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.

I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker.
_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
lavar703


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
Posts: 5482
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
lavar703 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.


I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on.
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.

I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker.


No turtle, he can't. He's never had the leg for long field goals, he has ZERO chance at making a 62 yard field goal.
_________________
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
AntiSuperstar


Joined: 07 Oct 2007
Posts: 4444
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You mean signing Cundiff in the first place? Oh no, it's a stat thing. Meh, don't get me wrong, I would have gone for it there simply because I trust the offense more than I trust Cundiff(how ironic it is that one of the better kickers Florida State has ever had gets cut in the NFL for a guy who is notorious for kicking wide right, such a bizarro world reversal). Not because of what league average dictates. League average statistics are irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. A coach may justifiably have more reason to trust his kicker than the league would on average or have reason to trust the offense less. Nevermind all the other factors that go into making a decision like that.

Trying to turn that decision into a matter of playing the percentages is painfully over-simplifying. It dismisses the myriad of factors that go not only into the decision but any potential offensive play calls.
_________________
Stop slobbering over Brian Dawkins
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
lavar703 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.


I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on.
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.

I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker.


No turtle, he can't. He's never had the leg for long field goals, he has ZERO chance at making a 62 yard field goal.
Yes he can. He has one of the strongest legs in the nfl. His problem on kicks over 50 yards is accuracy, not distance.

His career long is 56 and shanahan said he's seen him hit from that far in practice.

Also, the reason Morgan turned towards the sideline instead of turning towards the middle of the field after the catch is because we were in in the two minute offense and he wanted to get to the side line to stop the clock.
_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8


Last edited by turtle28 on Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:33 pm; edited 4 times in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
kerrdawg


Joined: 23 Apr 2009
Posts: 854
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looked to me like Shanahan was trying to protect Griffin. He chose to put the game on the shoulders of his veteran kicker instead of his rookie QB. The chances of winning were minuscule either way. At least you have your QB preparing for his third game in the NFL thinking he put his team in position to tie that game instead of thinking he blew it on 4th and 16.
_________________
You play to win the game! -Herm Edwards
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AntiSuperstar wrote:
You mean signing Cundiff in the first place? Oh no, it's a stat thing. Meh, don't get me wrong, I would have gone for it there simply because I trust the offense more than I trust Cundiff(how ironic it is that one of the better kickers Florida State has ever had gets cut in the NFL for a guy who is notorious for kicking wide right, such a bizarro world reversal). Not because of what league average dictates. League average statistics are irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. A coach may justifiably have more reason to trust his kicker than the league would on average or have reason to trust the offense less. Nevermind all the other factors that go into making a decision like that.
Yeah, real Ironic I guess...

Don't you know that the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Redskins both cut Gano in favor of Billy Cundiff and each time it has turned out to be a good decision. Cundiff is a better kicker than Gano. Cundiff was better than Gano when Cundiff was in Baltmore and Gano was here and Cundiff has been better this year than what Gano was for us, it was the correct decision in both cases.
_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
THESKINSFAN21


Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4298
Location: West Palm Beach
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kerrdawg wrote:
It looked to me like Shanahan was trying to protect Griffin. He chose to put the game on the shoulders of his veteran kicker instead of his rookie QB. The chances of winning were minuscule either way. At least you have your QB preparing for his third game in the NFL thinking he put his team in position to tie that game instead of thinking he blew it on 4th and 16.

Sounds good to me buddy. I must agree,RG3 did his job Cool
_________________

mike23md on the sig
David Amerson-48 Tackles 12 PD 2 INT 1 TD 1 FF
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
THESKINSFAN21


Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4298
Location: West Palm Beach
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Morgans getting death threats on twitter. I wont post a link because some are way tooo sick. People are idiots. Mad
_________________

mike23md on the sig
David Amerson-48 Tackles 12 PD 2 INT 1 TD 1 FF
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 62684
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THESKINSFAN21 wrote:
Morgans getting death threats on twitter. I wont post a link because some are way tooo sick. People are idiots. Mad
Yeah. Definitely. Any knowledgeable person would know he wasn't the only reason we lost. The only players I think that had a good game were our two starting rookies (Griffin and Morris) and the ilbs (Fletcher and Riley).
_________________
RIP SSFmike23md
Quote:
Days until: Today; @ Texans 8
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Washington Redskins All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2, 3  Next
Page 1 of 3

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group