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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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 Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:11 pm Post subject: Forget about Morgan... Another poor decision cost us |
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2012/09/19/redskins-should-have-gone-for-a-first-down-after-josh-morgans-blunder/?tid=pm_sports_pop
When we got the unsportsmanlike penalty, Mike Shanahan had a decision to make. Go for a 62 yard field goal or go for it on 4th down and 16.
| Quote: | Had Cundiff made the kick, it wouldn’t have assured overtime. The Rams would have had about 1:10 to assemble a field goal drive of their own, far from impossible in today’s league. Based on win rates from the past decade of actual games, the Redskins could expect to win 46% of the time had their kick been good. Overall, that means the decision to kick gave the Redskins a (.46 * .15 = ) 7% chance of winning.
Fourth and 16 situations like that are rare. In most circumstances, conversions are successful 18% of the time. Offenses face a similar task on third and 16 too—they’re both make-or-break situations. Third down attempts are converted 17% of the time, slightly less than fourth downs. This makes sense, considering some third down and very long plays are designed to improve field position rather than convert. To be conservative, let’s settle on 17% as the chance of conversion.
Had head coach Mike Shanahan chosen to go for the first down, the gamble would have been worth a (.17 * .57 = ) 10% chance of winning. |
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 mike23md
Days until:Days until: OTAs 2; Minicamp 25; Training camp 69; Eagles @ Redskins 115 RIP SSF |
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footy_29
Joined: 31 Jan 2007
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Location: The Frozen Tundra that is Canada
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Let it go...
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RSkinGM
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
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Location: Richmond, Va
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| and what about the extra 3 we gave them with his timeout icing the kicker .. He missed it , then made it. The 62 yard kick was a terrible , no chance in Hell, decision//. Put the ball in RG's hands left him do his best .. all u can ask. |
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lavar703
Joined: 12 Jan 2009
Posts: 4832
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:27 pm Post subject: |
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It was one game guys. We've still got 14 more to go and RGIII has proven he can keep us in it. Mistakes were made, it's time to move on and grow from this. We have a franchise QB, the future is bright! HTTR
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| Deets wrote: | | Absolutely nothing. In two years, Ryan Tannehill will be far better than RGIII. |
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin" |
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it.
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mike23md
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lavar703
Joined: 12 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:51 pm Post subject: |
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| turtle28 wrote: | | I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it. |
I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on.
The reality is Morgan made two huge mistakes on this play. The first mistake was turning the wrong way after the catch. If he simply catches the ball and gets up field he would've had the first down regardless of the action after the play, the drive would still have been alive. The other, obviously being the thrown ball.
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| Deets wrote: | | Absolutely nothing. In two years, Ryan Tannehill will be far better than RGIII. |
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin" |
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| lavar703 wrote: | | turtle28 wrote: | | I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it. |
I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on. |
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.
I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker.
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mike23md
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lavar703
Joined: 12 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| turtle28 wrote: | | lavar703 wrote: | | turtle28 wrote: | | I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it. |
I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on. |
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.
I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker. |
No turtle, he can't. He's never had the leg for long field goals, he has ZERO chance at making a 62 yard field goal.
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| Deets wrote: | | Absolutely nothing. In two years, Ryan Tannehill will be far better than RGIII. |
RIP Sean Taylor "Forever a Redskin" |
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AntiSuperstar
Joined: 07 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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You mean signing Cundiff in the first place? Oh no, it's a stat thing. Meh, don't get me wrong, I would have gone for it there simply because I trust the offense more than I trust Cundiff(how ironic it is that one of the better kickers Florida State has ever had gets cut in the NFL for a guy who is notorious for kicking wide right, such a bizarro world reversal). Not because of what league average dictates. League average statistics are irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. A coach may justifiably have more reason to trust his kicker than the league would on average or have reason to trust the offense less. Nevermind all the other factors that go into making a decision like that.
Trying to turn that decision into a matter of playing the percentages is painfully over-simplifying. It dismisses the myriad of factors that go not only into the decision but any potential offensive play calls.
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| lavar703 wrote: | | turtle28 wrote: | | lavar703 wrote: | | turtle28 wrote: | | I didn't bring this up to just pile on the game and the loss. I started the topic because it is a good statistical analysis and if we wanted to win the game it was a better chance to go for it. That's it. |
I honestly think that was common sense though. The idea that Cundiff could make a 62-yard field goal because his kick offs are normally out of the end zone was laughable. We essentially took a knee by trotting Cundiff out there, however the decision is made and we need to move on. |
I think Cundiff can make a 62 yard field goal, just because he missed that one, doesn't mean he can't make one.
I do think it would have been a better choice to go for it on 4th down though, we had been moving the ball through the air pretty well all game long. As RSkinGM said I'd rather go down fighting with Robert Giffin having the ball in his hands than relying on a kicker. |
No turtle, he can't. He's never had the leg for long field goals, he has ZERO chance at making a 62 yard field goal. |
Yes he can. He has one of the strongest legs in the nfl. His problem on kicks over 50 yards is accuracy, not distance.
His career long is 56 and shanahan said he's seen him hit from that far in practice.
Also, the reason Morgan turned towards the sideline instead of turning towards the middle of the field after the catch is because we were in in the two minute offense and he wanted to get to the side line to stop the clock.
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mike23md
Days until:Days until: OTAs 2; Minicamp 25; Training camp 69; Eagles @ Redskins 115 RIP SSF
Last edited by turtle28 on Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:33 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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kerrdawg
Joined: 23 Apr 2009
Posts: 848
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:10 pm Post subject: |
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It looked to me like Shanahan was trying to protect Griffin. He chose to put the game on the shoulders of his veteran kicker instead of his rookie QB. The chances of winning were minuscule either way. At least you have your QB preparing for his third game in the NFL thinking he put his team in position to tie that game instead of thinking he blew it on 4th and 16.
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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| AntiSuperstar wrote: | | You mean signing Cundiff in the first place? Oh no, it's a stat thing. Meh, don't get me wrong, I would have gone for it there simply because I trust the offense more than I trust Cundiff(how ironic it is that one of the better kickers Florida State has ever had gets cut in the NFL for a guy who is notorious for kicking wide right, such a bizarro world reversal). Not because of what league average dictates. League average statistics are irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. A coach may justifiably have more reason to trust his kicker than the league would on average or have reason to trust the offense less. Nevermind all the other factors that go into making a decision like that. |
Yeah, real Ironic I guess...
Don't you know that the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Redskins both cut Gano in favor of Billy Cundiff and each time it has turned out to be a good decision. Cundiff is a better kicker than Gano. Cundiff was better than Gano when Cundiff was in Baltmore and Gano was here and Cundiff has been better this year than what Gano was for us, it was the correct decision in both cases.
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mike23md
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 3996
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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| kerrdawg wrote: | | It looked to me like Shanahan was trying to protect Griffin. He chose to put the game on the shoulders of his veteran kicker instead of his rookie QB. The chances of winning were minuscule either way. At least you have your QB preparing for his third game in the NFL thinking he put his team in position to tie that game instead of thinking he blew it on 4th and 16. |
Sounds good to me buddy. I must agree,RG3 did his job 
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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Morgans getting death threats on twitter. I wont post a link because some are way tooo sick. People are idiots. 
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 53048
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| THESKINSFAN21 wrote: | | Morgans getting death threats on twitter. I wont post a link because some are way tooo sick. People are idiots. |
Yeah. Definitely. Any knowledgeable person would know he wasn't the only reason we lost. The only players I think that had a good game were our two starting rookies (Griffin and Morris) and the ilbs (Fletcher and Riley).
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mike23md
Days until:Days until: OTAs 2; Minicamp 25; Training camp 69; Eagles @ Redskins 115 RIP SSF |
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