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49ers receivers with highest drop rate in the league..again
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oldman9er


Joined: 24 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sbrown wrote:
I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


2011

The NYG were 6th in passes attempted... the Eagles were 13th..

WE? the Niners were 31st.

That says a lot, sbrown, and is worthy of some discussion for the fans.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sbrown wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


What are you not agreeing with? Are you saying their stats about last season are wrong. I think I remember reading some time after last season was over, maybe during the draft, that we did lead the league with the highest drop rate.


Sounds like he is arguing that what statisticians consider drops, he does not. d'oh!


partly, the same way someone would argue a bad pass when theres a defender barrelling down on a QB. There are sometimes other factors. however My point is that we are the only people i ever here talk about dropped passes as if no other team has them. I understand why people post stats about our team for conversation purposes, but I am as praiseworthy as well as critical toward the receivers as anyone. I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


The article clearly says we led the league in drop rate. Are you arguing total drops vs drop rate? The drop rate is what is more important. If a team throws twice as many passes as another and has twice as many drops it still has the same drop rate. The article says we had the highest drop rate. Do you have a link to some other site that says otherwise?

As for deciding what's a drop, frankly most people on this site who are counting drops for themselves have us with more than this site does. The site already discounts for balls that would have been difficult catches and are presumably, and certainly intending, to only count catches that ordinarily would have been made (that means taking into account the things you are mentioning). And whatever those things are you think are mitigators they also consider for every other team too. Let's face it, our guys drop lots of very simple, right in their hands, no one near them, passes - at a rate that exceeds other teams. This is a problem for us that we should work to correct.

And this forum may talk about drops more than others for the very reason that we had the highest drop rate in the league last year and are leading the league again - at a rate that if extended for a full season would set some kind of record for drop rate.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Been keeping a running tally, myself.. same numbers for me.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Quote:
thru week 4

SF is now tied for 3rd most drops ( 12 ) with the NYG... Lions with 15... Saints with 13.

Saints are 1st in the league for most pass attempts with 191.
Lions are 2nd in the league for most pass attempt with 186.
Giants are 5th in the league for most pass attempts with 162.

Niners are 30th in the league for most pass attempts with 114.
___________________________________________________________________

Game 1 = 2 clear drops... 1 debatable ( both from Walker )
Game 2 = 6 clear drops... ( Crabtree, Hunter, Gore, Miller, Walker, Manningham )
Game 3 = 2 clear drops... ( Moss, VD )
Game 4 = 2 clear drops... 1 debatable ( Crabtree, Walker )

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Ataal


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we could improve our drop rate significantly and occasionally pass the ball downfield to keep the defense honest, I think our 3rd down conversion rate would sky rocket. Can't get much worse, really.

Granted, it's not quite that simple, but it's something I hope the coaches are working on.
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iwentundrafted


Joined: 18 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


Doesn't matter the yardage. Take Walker's double-drop from last week as an example. He makes that 1 yard catch and he can fall forward for an easy first down. Because he didn't make the catch, we are in 4th down mode and go for a FG (which was missed). Maybe he makes that first down, and we get more than 0 points next time, eh?


This is the most frustrating part about the offense imo. Throwing passes short of the sticks on 3rd down is ok sometimes if the receiver has some room to run but to me it seems we do it almost every third down attempt. That's where my criticism of Alex comes from. Now if its 3rd and 20 then ok im fine with throwing short of the sticks instead of throwing a foolish ball into triple coverage but on 3rd and 6 you throw a 3 yard out route with a guy on our receivers hip....then if caught he's tackled short and alex seems upset as he unsnaps his chinstrap and heads towards the sideline. Thats when I find myself saying "well what in the world did you expect to happen"?
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iwentundrafted wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


Doesn't matter the yardage. Take Walker's double-drop from last week as an example. He makes that 1 yard catch and he can fall forward for an easy first down. Because he didn't make the catch, we are in 4th down mode and go for a FG (which was missed). Maybe he makes that first down, and we get more than 0 points next time, eh?


This is the most frustrating part about the offense imo. Throwing passes short of the sticks on 3rd down is ok sometimes if the receiver has some room to run but to me it seems we do it almost every third down attempt. That's where my criticism of Alex comes from. Now if its 3rd and 20 then ok im fine with throwing short of the sticks instead of throwing a foolish ball into triple coverage but on 3rd and 6 you throw a 3 yard out route with a guy on our receivers hip....then if caught he's tackled short and alex seems upset as he unsnaps his chinstrap and heads towards the sideline. Thats when I find myself saying "well what in the world did you expect to happen"?


I can understand that... even agree for the most part... but sometimes, you gotta take what the D gives you and hope your receiver can get some YAC. We are a WCO after all, and we happen to be the 6th worst team in YAC right now.
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in po we trust


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Delanie Walker's drops frustrate me the most. Not because they're any worse than any other player's drops, but because he seems to have more drops than positive plays. He's turning into that Mark Roman/Moran Norris just ready to move on from player for this year's team. We need a more conventional sure handed TE for next year to pair up with VD's explosiveness, instead of having VD and VD-light.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

in po we trust wrote:
Delanie Walker's drops frustrate me the most. Not because they're any worse than any other player's drops, but because he seems to have more drops than positive plays. He's turning into that Mark Roman/Moran Norris just ready to move on from player for this year's team. We need a more conventional sure handed TE for next year to pair up with VD's explosiveness, instead of having VD and VD-light.


SO wanted Coby Fleener... now?


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49ers Finest


Joined: 28 Dec 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
in po we trust wrote:
Delanie Walker's drops frustrate me the most. Not because they're any worse than any other player's drops, but because he seems to have more drops than positive plays. He's turning into that Mark Roman/Moran Norris just ready to move on from player for this year's team. We need a more conventional sure handed TE for next year to pair up with VD's explosiveness, instead of having VD and VD-light.


SO wanted Coby Fleener... now?


im going to have to have you teach me how to do that oldman. Laughing
looks good. for some mock drafts
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sbrown


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


What are you not agreeing with? Are you saying their stats about last season are wrong. I think I remember reading some time after last season was over, maybe during the draft, that we did lead the league with the highest drop rate.


Sounds like he is arguing that what statisticians consider drops, he does not. d'oh!


partly, the same way someone would argue a bad pass when theres a defender barrelling down on a QB. There are sometimes other factors. however My point is that we are the only people i ever here talk about dropped passes as if no other team has them. I understand why people post stats about our team for conversation purposes, but I am as praiseworthy as well as critical toward the receivers as anyone. I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


The article clearly says we led the league in drop rate. Are you arguing total drops vs drop rate? The drop rate is what is more important. If a team throws twice as many passes as another and has twice as many drops it still has the same drop rate. The article says we had the highest drop rate. Do you have a link to some other site that says otherwise?

As for deciding what's a drop, frankly most people on this site who are counting drops for themselves have us with more than this site does. The site already discounts for balls that would have been difficult catches and are presumably, and certainly intending, to only count catches that ordinarily would have been made (that means taking into account the things you are mentioning). And whatever those things are you think are mitigators they also consider for every other team too. Let's face it, our guys drop lots of very simple, right in their hands, no one near them, passes - at a rate that exceeds other teams. This is a problem for us that we should work to correct.

And this forum may talk about drops more than others for the very reason that we had the highest drop rate in the league last year and are leading the league again - at a rate that if extended for a full season would set some kind of record for drop rate.


this is the part I have the biggest problem with. Ive seen GB and philly receivers drop wide open uncontested passes more than any team i have ever seen. I hardly see us drop uncontested passes, why? because our routes are all underneathe so there is always a defender near them. but in the end I think the reason why other teams dont complain as much is because other teams DO pass more which gives them the opportunity to make more memorial opportunities to make a play.

example: you give ray allen 3 three pt shots per game he may miss 2 out of 3 for a miss rate of 66%. however you give him 10 shots he may go 5-10 for a lower drop rate 50%(but more drops total) but the ability to have a bigger overall impact upon the game with MORE MAKES.

many of you are baseball fans. Last nite miguel cabrera went 0-2 for 0%. but given more opportunities he averages .330%

Last season everyone was all over VD for dropping a pass against the skins. however the one thing everyone remembers from last season and vd was the catch against the saints.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
in po we trust wrote:
Delanie Walker's drops frustrate me the most. Not because they're any worse than any other player's drops, but because he seems to have more drops than positive plays. He's turning into that Mark Roman/Moran Norris just ready to move on from player for this year's team. We need a more conventional sure handed TE for next year to pair up with VD's explosiveness, instead of having VD and VD-light.


SO wanted Coby Fleener... now?



This has my seal of approval.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sbrown wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


What are you not agreeing with? Are you saying their stats about last season are wrong. I think I remember reading some time after last season was over, maybe during the draft, that we did lead the league with the highest drop rate.


Sounds like he is arguing that what statisticians consider drops, he does not. d'oh!


partly, the same way someone would argue a bad pass when theres a defender barrelling down on a QB. There are sometimes other factors. however My point is that we are the only people i ever here talk about dropped passes as if no other team has them. I understand why people post stats about our team for conversation purposes, but I am as praiseworthy as well as critical toward the receivers as anyone. I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


The article clearly says we led the league in drop rate. Are you arguing total drops vs drop rate? The drop rate is what is more important. If a team throws twice as many passes as another and has twice as many drops it still has the same drop rate. The article says we had the highest drop rate. Do you have a link to some other site that says otherwise?

As for deciding what's a drop, frankly most people on this site who are counting drops for themselves have us with more than this site does. The site already discounts for balls that would have been difficult catches and are presumably, and certainly intending, to only count catches that ordinarily would have been made (that means taking into account the things you are mentioning). And whatever those things are you think are mitigators they also consider for every other team too. Let's face it, our guys drop lots of very simple, right in their hands, no one near them, passes - at a rate that exceeds other teams. This is a problem for us that we should work to correct.

And this forum may talk about drops more than others for the very reason that we had the highest drop rate in the league last year and are leading the league again - at a rate that if extended for a full season would set some kind of record for drop rate.


this is the part I have the biggest problem with. Ive seen GB and philly receivers drop wide open uncontested passes more than any team i have ever seen. I hardly see us drop uncontested passes, why? because our routes are all underneathe so there is always a defender near them. but in the end I think the reason why other teams dont complain as much is because other teams DO pass more which gives them the opportunity to make more memorial opportunities to make a play.

example: you give ray allen 3 three pt shots per game he may miss 2 out of 3 for a miss rate of 66%. however you give him 10 shots he may go 5-10 for a lower drop rate 50%(but more drops total) but the ability to have a bigger overall impact upon the game with MORE MAKES.

many of you are baseball fans. Last nite miguel cabrera went 0-2 for 0%. but given more opportunities he averages .330%

Last season everyone was all over VD for dropping a pass against the skins. however the one thing everyone remembers from last season and vd was the catch against the saints.


To a degree this is true, but the offense isn't likely to become pass heavy to the point where that'll matter. What is known is that the Saints have thrown 77 more passes than us, but only have one more drop than us. That's not 1 drop in 77 passes...that means they're dropping less frequently. The statistics suggest that if we were to extrapolate our numbers to the Saints level, we'd have 20 drops. Whatever the reason is - our team just drops passes at a higher frequency. Is it the absolute killer for this team? No, we're 3-1 so it hasn't killed us. However, if we improve upon that, then suddenly our 3rd down conversion rate might go up, our time of possession might go up, and both of those things fall right into what we want to do as an offense. It's hard enough to score against our defense, let's make it harder.
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sbrown


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
sbrown wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


What are you not agreeing with? Are you saying their stats about last season are wrong. I think I remember reading some time after last season was over, maybe during the draft, that we did lead the league with the highest drop rate.


Sounds like he is arguing that what statisticians consider drops, he does not. d'oh!


partly, the same way someone would argue a bad pass when theres a defender barrelling down on a QB. There are sometimes other factors. however My point is that we are the only people i ever here talk about dropped passes as if no other team has them. I understand why people post stats about our team for conversation purposes, but I am as praiseworthy as well as critical toward the receivers as anyone. I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


The article clearly says we led the league in drop rate. Are you arguing total drops vs drop rate? The drop rate is what is more important. If a team throws twice as many passes as another and has twice as many drops it still has the same drop rate. The article says we had the highest drop rate. Do you have a link to some other site that says otherwise?

As for deciding what's a drop, frankly most people on this site who are counting drops for themselves have us with more than this site does. The site already discounts for balls that would have been difficult catches and are presumably, and certainly intending, to only count catches that ordinarily would have been made (that means taking into account the things you are mentioning). And whatever those things are you think are mitigators they also consider for every other team too. Let's face it, our guys drop lots of very simple, right in their hands, no one near them, passes - at a rate that exceeds other teams. This is a problem for us that we should work to correct.

And this forum may talk about drops more than others for the very reason that we had the highest drop rate in the league last year and are leading the league again - at a rate that if extended for a full season would set some kind of record for drop rate.


this is the part I have the biggest problem with. Ive seen GB and philly receivers drop wide open uncontested passes more than any team i have ever seen. I hardly see us drop uncontested passes, why? because our routes are all underneathe so there is always a defender near them. but in the end I think the reason why other teams dont complain as much is because other teams DO pass more which gives them the opportunity to make more memorial opportunities to make a play.

example: you give ray allen 3 three pt shots per game he may miss 2 out of 3 for a miss rate of 66%. however you give him 10 shots he may go 5-10 for a lower drop rate 50%(but more drops total) but the ability to have a bigger overall impact upon the game with MORE MAKES.

many of you are baseball fans. Last nite miguel cabrera went 0-2 for 0%. but given more opportunities he averages .330%

Last season everyone was all over VD for dropping a pass against the skins. however the one thing everyone remembers from last season and vd was the catch against the saints.


To a degree this is true, but the offense isn't likely to become pass heavy to the point where that'll matter. What is known is that the Saints have thrown 77 more passes than us, but only have one more drop than us. That's not 1 drop in 77 passes...that means they're dropping less frequently. The statistics suggest that if we were to extrapolate our numbers to the Saints level, we'd have 20 drops. Whatever the reason is - our team just drops passes at a higher frequency. Is it the absolute killer for this team? No, we're 3-1 so it hasn't killed us. However, if we improve upon that, then suddenly our 3rd down conversion rate might go up, our time of possession might go up, and both of those things fall right into what we want to do as an offense. It's hard enough to score against our defense, let's make it harder.


See I dont disagree that we drop passes, I disagree that extrapolating the numbers the results would remain the same. I think the more reps you get the better you are. And even more so we wouldnt care about the 1 drop vs the 7 catch 100 yd game and 1 td.

Ive said many times this and last season, Im ok with our balanced offense. I think every 49er is ingrained with the montana and young love for the passing game, and I wish we had that now...but more than anything we are ingrained with superbowl rings and I want that MORE than big numbers and no rings...(jeff garcia was that). So im cool at this method.
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Ataal


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sbrown wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
sbrown wrote:
I dont agree with this. and again we didnt lead the league last season. The statement said with ordinary effort, but it obviously doesnt take into account defenders hands coming across a receivers vision and other factors. also the other point is that none of the drops listed were passes beyond 15 yds down field unless they are counting the triple covered pass to moss last week as a drop too


What are you not agreeing with? Are you saying their stats about last season are wrong. I think I remember reading some time after last season was over, maybe during the draft, that we did lead the league with the highest drop rate.


Sounds like he is arguing that what statisticians consider drops, he does not. d'oh!


partly, the same way someone would argue a bad pass when theres a defender barrelling down on a QB. There are sometimes other factors. however My point is that we are the only people i ever here talk about dropped passes as if no other team has them. I understand why people post stats about our team for conversation purposes, but I am as praiseworthy as well as critical toward the receivers as anyone. I analyze them more than anyone but still the giants led the league last season, the eagles were also up there as well as the packers, but good teams still find a way to win.


The article clearly says we led the league in drop rate. Are you arguing total drops vs drop rate? The drop rate is what is more important. If a team throws twice as many passes as another and has twice as many drops it still has the same drop rate. The article says we had the highest drop rate. Do you have a link to some other site that says otherwise?

As for deciding what's a drop, frankly most people on this site who are counting drops for themselves have us with more than this site does. The site already discounts for balls that would have been difficult catches and are presumably, and certainly intending, to only count catches that ordinarily would have been made (that means taking into account the things you are mentioning). And whatever those things are you think are mitigators they also consider for every other team too. Let's face it, our guys drop lots of very simple, right in their hands, no one near them, passes - at a rate that exceeds other teams. This is a problem for us that we should work to correct.

And this forum may talk about drops more than others for the very reason that we had the highest drop rate in the league last year and are leading the league again - at a rate that if extended for a full season would set some kind of record for drop rate.


this is the part I have the biggest problem with. Ive seen GB and philly receivers drop wide open uncontested passes more than any team i have ever seen. I hardly see us drop uncontested passes, why? because our routes are all underneathe so there is always a defender near them. but in the end I think the reason why other teams dont complain as much is because other teams DO pass more which gives them the opportunity to make more memorial opportunities to make a play.

example: you give ray allen 3 three pt shots per game he may miss 2 out of 3 for a miss rate of 66%. however you give him 10 shots he may go 5-10 for a lower drop rate 50%(but more drops total) but the ability to have a bigger overall impact upon the game with MORE MAKES.

many of you are baseball fans. Last nite miguel cabrera went 0-2 for 0%. but given more opportunities he averages .330%


Last season everyone was all over VD for dropping a pass against the skins. however the one thing everyone remembers from last season and vd was the catch against the saints.


This logic only works when dealing with the small sample sizes you're referring to. We're not talking about small sample sizes. We had 27 drops out of 451 last year and 11 drops out of 114 so far this year, on pace to have 44 drops by the end of the season. That's 11 more drops than the worst in the league last year. The fact is, our drop rate was the worst in the league last year and, after 4 games, is the worst in the league this year, too. A statistician would call this a trend, not an anomaly.

At these sample sizes, it's a very reasonable assumption that we will either stay the same or get worse if we pass more, not get better. This is something the coaching staff has to work on with the players. Much like our red zone offense last year. Remember how horrible we were at it last year? Harbaugh came out and said they worked on it, I believe, right before the playoffs. And, we did get better at it. We've been better at it this season as well. I'm just hoping we work on our drops sooner, rather than later.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Y2, doesn't the qb come into play somehow. Team like GB, NO, and NE pass the ball WAY more than we do yet their WRs have less drops. Is it a coincidence that those team have the 3 best and most accurate qbs in the nfl? Rodgers, Brees, and Brady know how to throw a WR open and put it accurately in the perfect place for their WR to catch it. Our WRs are pretty good and certainly better than NE's WRs yet we have more drops. Not blaming it all on Alex but he doesn't throw no where near as accurate as those 3 qbs. Rarely do those WRs ever have to adjust to making a catch from those qbs.
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