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Almost Seems Like a Silly Question, But.....

 
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BigBillsFan13


Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Posts: 16971
Location: So Cal
PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:55 pm    Post subject: Almost Seems Like a Silly Question, But..... Reply with quote

Would you guys start Rodgers against DET or Wilson against ARI?

Should have pretty bad weather in GB, and Wilson has out scored Rodgers (by a lot) the last 2 weeks. Plus, Seattle is at home.

Thoughts???
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SwiftTexan


Joined: 15 Feb 2011
Posts: 3912
PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sweet Jesus - there seems like a rash of questions like this in Week 14.

I hope you didn't start Russell Wilson over one of the greatest fantasy QBs in the league.

It's questions like this that make people who know how to play fantasy put their head in their hands and cry for the fate of humanity.
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BigBillsFan13


Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Posts: 16971
Location: So Cal
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwiftTexan wrote:
Sweet Jesus - there seems like a rash of questions like this in Week 14.

I hope you didn't start Russell Wilson over one of the greatest fantasy QBs in the league.

It's questions like this that make people who know how to play fantasy put their head in their hands and cry for the fate of humanity.

Oh I know how to play fantasy football, and I've been doing it - with a great amount of "success" - for over 10 years.

Turns out, it wasn't that silly of a question. I started Rodgers. He got me 15 points, 3 more points than Wilson. If I had asked this question last week would you have given the same answer? Wilson scored 33 while Rodgers scored 18. What about the week before, when Wilson scored 26 (I think), and Rodgers scored 14? He's been terrible lately, and asking that question in no way means I don't know how to play ff.
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SwiftTexan


Joined: 15 Feb 2011
Posts: 3912
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BigBillsFan13 wrote:
SwiftTexan wrote:
Sweet Jesus - there seems like a rash of questions like this in Week 14.

I hope you didn't start Russell Wilson over one of the greatest fantasy QBs in the league.

It's questions like this that make people who know how to play fantasy put their head in their hands and cry for the fate of humanity.

Oh I know how to play fantasy football, and I've been doing it - with a great amount of "success" - for over 10 years.

Turns out, it wasn't that silly of a question. I started Rodgers. He got me 15 points, 3 more points than Wilson. If I had asked this question last week would you have given the same answer? Wilson scored 33 while Rodgers scored 18. What about the week before, when Wilson scored 26 (I think), and Rodgers scored 14? He's been terrible lately, and asking that question in no way means I don't know how to play ff.


Fantasy football is an excercise in gambling and risk management. Bet on the underdog and you're bound to get lucky but do it too often and you'll go broke. So if you want to to put your money on the pony who's a third round rookie in a run-first offense then go ahead and do so. But if you want to put your season on the line, I'd go with the veteran former NFL MVP, Superbowl MVP, All-Pro Quarterback in a pass happy offense every week.

I'm glad you startd Rodgers. You start him every week and leave your "Who to start" questions for your WR3 spots and you flex positions. Everything else should be pretty easy.

I have RGIII and Russell Wilson in one league but do you think I was contemplating starting Wilson over RGIII after Griffin only scored 11 and 13 points in Weeks 8 and 9? No. I wasn't even considering it despite the fact that Wilson outscored Griffin in weeks 8 and 9 (17 & 21) and do you know why? Because Griffin is a better QB in real life and in fantasy terms. Quibble with the end of your roster - leave the studs alone.
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SwiftTexan


Joined: 15 Feb 2011
Posts: 3912
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And one more thing - you can't play revisionist history expert with fantasy football. If you had asked me last week or the week before who you start - Wilson or Rodgers? I would have said Rodgers and I would have been right. It's like arguing that your team should have drafted Brady with the 198th pick - it's a stupid argument because nobody can possibly refute the facts of history. But when you're making a decision in the moment about you want to the best possible outcome, you weigh the odds. You have to make the best choice with the information available. Do you think St Louis Rams fans were pissed off during the 2000 NFL Draft when their team selected Matt Bowen with the 198th pick? Do you think there were hoards of fans screaming "Brady Brady Brady!!!" Absolutely not because the Rams were making the best choice in the moment. So yes - if you had asked me last week "Wilson or Rodgers" and I had said Rodgers - I would have been right. Because if you want to play a Top 15-20 player over a top 5 player every week you will lose every week. AJ Green had fewer points than Jason Avant but if I had asked you Avant or AJ Green A) You would have or should have laughed at me and B) You would have been right to say AJ Green regardless of what actually happened.

You do the same - you start Rodgers ever week and you don't think twice about it. Next week you start him and the week after that. And next year you draft him. You draft him over Russell Wilson and pretty much every other QB.

I've been playing fantasy for half as long as you and I feel like this should be something you would know by now. I learned it after my first year.
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