Harbaugh starting Kaepernick

[Psychlone]

[rudyZ]

[SoCalNiner]

[cHaInBrEaKeRiii]

[J-ALL-DAY]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/colin-kaepernick-admits-he-learned-nothing-from-wa,30548/


_________________

[SoCalNiner]

[NinerNation21]

[steadypimpin]

[y2lamanaki]

ALEX SMITH:

For Alex, I've factored out his Rams game in any per game stats, as to not skew his data.

Games started: 8
Record: 6-2
Completion %: 70.0
Yards: 1731
Yards/start: 207.4
YPA: 7.98
Total TDs: 13
TDs/game: 1.5
Passing TD%: 5.99
INTs: 5
INT%: 2.30
Total Yards: 1865
Total Yards/start: 223.5
QBR: 104.1
Sacks: 24
Sack%: 10.0


COLIN KAEPERNICK:

For Colin, I've included the first Rams game as a start for him (since he essentially played a full game including OT), and for per/game stats I've factored out any of his pre-Rams game playing time.

Games started: 5
Record: 3-1-1
Completion %: 67.4
Yards: 1073
Yards/start: 196.8
YPA: 8.32
Total TDs: 8
TDs/game: 1.2
Passing TD%: 2.3
INTs: 1
INT%: 0.78
Total Yards: 1424
Total Yards/start: 244.8
QBR: 97.5
Sacks: 13
Sack%: 9.2


I took a look at the stats because after essentially 5 games for Kaepernick (and 8 for Smith), it's become a bit more fair to line them up and see how each were performing. Part of what I've been saying - it's nearly impossible to single out one that's playing better than the other. In pure passing numbers, Alex is the clear favorite, but that's discounting Kaepernick's running ability which has accounted for 3 TDs in his starts, and quite a bit of extra yardage (which is why I included the total yards/start and total TDs/start to show how close they really are to each other).

In fact, if you convert both Alex and Kaepernick's rushing yards into passing numbers, it shows them even closer (note: I converted fumbles lost into INTs for Kaepernick since I converted rushing TDs into passing TDs - Alex had neither so it doesn't affect him):


Alex Smith:

QBR: 106.6
TD%: 5.3
INT%: 2.05


Colin Kaepernick:

QBR: 111.6
TD%: 4.94
INT%: 1.85


So when converted into passing stats, Kaepernick actually passes Smith in QBR (which is partially why I continually suggest QBR is a poor method for deciding how QBs performed). Alex still has a slight lead in TD%, but Kaepernick cuts into it significantly. And Kaepernick still has a slight lead in INT%, but Alex cuts into it significantly. But basically, it narrows that gap even further.




The whole point of this? Not to show one's been better than the other. It's to show that both of them have played pretty well overall this year, and neither has been a clearly better option than the other. Most of the metrics are so close to each other that it's nearly impossible to differentiate, especially when factoring in Kaepernick's running ability.

Mostly, I'm just tired of people so overly confident of one playing better than the other, and that we'd be far better with one over the other. So far, neither has proven that to be the case. However, the good news is - neither has played poorly. And each wins 2 out of every 3 games.
_________________

[sherm]

U can't calculate a gm as a start if he didn't prepare as a starter. Its not really complicated. Either both get credit for the Rams tie or neither do.

All these stats keep this so called debate alive. Fact is we're 3-1 with him as a starter...meaning we havent lost any ground since the switch. Locked into #2 for now with an eye on #1 if Atl trips up.
_________________
I love me some 49ers, Michigan, and my Lakers.
2009- Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan - 64 Tck 26 TFL 10.5 sacks
2010- Sam Acho, DE, Texas - 59 tck, 17 TFL, 9 sacks, 5 FF, 5 FR

[straighthate]

Nice Y2. If you or someone else has the time, would love to see offensive points per game for each, yards per carry for the rb's, and average negative plays per game.

I bring that up because I think where we're losing out with Kap is superior game management by Alex, like audibles at the line for example. Tough to show who calls better plays at the line, but if we can see a trend of more or less negative plays for one qb, seems like that would be a good indication of who reads the defense better and calls the game accordingly.

I want Smith to start because of that and the clock management that doesn't seem to be improving with Kap. Just think the rookie mistakes will hurt us in the close games and playoffs. But Kap's doing better than I thought as far as protecting the football (although I still cringe when he runs with the ball swinging around unprotected in one hand). I thought he'd throw a ton of picks and fumble more.

My critique of Kap so far, both positive and negative:
-Cannon. He can get the ball in windows Smith couldn't dream of because of that arm.
-Better accuracy than I thought. In fact, it's been pretty damn good. Good touch on the short to intermediate routes too.
-Obviously crazy athleticism. Maybe the best combo of arm and legs in the NFL.
-Good job of recognizing when it's not there and throwing it away instead of into traffic. Expected more gunslinger style, but he's controlled and doesn't take unnecessary risks.
-Pretty good job looking at multiple receivers. Doesn't lock onto one like Smith often does.
-His presence causes Roman to use sets and formations that I don't like watching, like the three back college looking sets.... I know that's not necessarily a negative for winning games, but I just don't like that style of offense, so it's a negative for me.
-Seems to be a good leader on the field and guys rally around him.
-Takes too many sacks. Is that a Harbaugh thing? Just doesn't unload the ball sometimes when he should.
-Misses checkdown receivers (think Frank Gore waiving his arms today on 3-4).
-Terrible clock management. It will get better, but it's not getting better fast enough. Makes me feel like the Jimmy Raye days when every play I was watching the play clock.
-Poor at recognizing defense at times. Seems like more negative plays, although that's just my perception so far. Also noticed Gore three times now kill a play at the line. I would assume if Gore feels the need to do that, Kap's missing something obvious. NEVER saw him do that with Smith, so once again, assume that's something he's doing cause Kap's missing something obvious.

All in all, I'm really happy to have Kap on the team and as the future of the franchise. I'm not happy he's playing right now cause I think midway through a Superbowl run, it's just not the time to switch to an inexperienced rookie (pretty much). But he's got a bright future and I hope he gets it quick, cause I don't see Harbaugh going back to Smith. So pretty much, Kap's gotta work on a few main things upstairs so he can realize the crazy amount of physical potential he has.

[foreveryoung94]

[justo]

Don't mean to intrude again but when you compare stuff on levels like that you are using dry data in small sample sizes. Need to weight the data with the opponents' averages IMO. I mean it matters if you but 56 points up against the Jaguars or the Patriots, right?
_________________

[foreveryoung94]

[oldman9er]

All of this seems to be in poor taste, as far as I am concerned.

Jim made his decision, and we just need to support whichever QB is under center.

Do I think Jim stabbed Alex in the back by pulling this move when he did? Absolutely. Have I lost a tremendous amount of respect for Jim? Absolutely.

... but I won't take my irritations out on Ck7 or my team. I loathed Mike Nolan and still pulled for my team... so I will endure this guy also and simply hope we can win it all regardless.

Enough comparing (or knocking down one guy to boost up another)...

just be a 49ers fan... real simple.
_________________

___