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stallyns


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:

2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
4. In the event that the Texans and Patriots lose in the Divisional Round, the Texans would pick before New England due to the Patriots win over Houston..

I seen it mentioned that in the case of the Jets/Titans that H2H doesn't factor in but your order is correct because Tennessee's conference record is better then the Jets, and in the case of NE/Hou your order is also correct for the same reason (better conf. record)
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ravens & Redskins Win
21.) CIN
22.) MIN
23.) IND
24.) SEA

Ravens & Seahawks Win
21.) CIN
22.) WAS
23.) MIN
24.) IND

Colts & Seahawks Win
21.) CIN
22.) WAS
23.) BAL
24.) MIN

Colts & Redskins Win
21.) CIN
22.) BAL
23.) MIN
24.) SEA

Those are the four permutation based on today's games.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
Woz wrote:

2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
4. In the event that the Texans and Patriots lose in the Divisional Round, the Texans would pick before New England due to the Patriots win over Houston..

I seen it mentioned that in the case of the Jets/Titans that H2H doesn't factor in but your order is correct because Tennessee's conference record is better then the Jets, and in the case of NE/Hou your order is also correct for the same reason (better conf. record)


Eh?

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Quote:
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
2. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
3. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
4. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
5. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.


Quote:
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker. [Woz: Neither pair is in the same division]
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.


Given that the only other tiebreaker on that page is the divisional tiebreaker, I'm making the assumption that the "Wild-Card Team" tiebreaker is the conference tiebreaker. If that's incorrect, please provide a link to the correct order.


In the meantime, here's the draft order for the first 24 positions:
Code:
 #    TEAM    PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.125    0.516
 2    JAC    0.125    0.539
 3    OAK    0.250    0.469
 4    PHI    0.250    0.508
 5    DET    0.250    0.566
 6    CLE    0.313    0.508
 7    ARI    0.313    0.559
 8    BUF    0.375    0.480
 9    NYJ    0.375    0.512
10    TEN    0.375    0.512
11    SDG    0.438    0.457
12    MIA    0.438    0.500
13    TAM    0.438    0.502
14    CAR    0.438    0.516
15    NOR    0.438    0.521
16    STL    0.469    0.539
17    PIT    0.500    0.465
18    DAL    0.500    0.523
19    NYG    0.563    0.521
20    CHI    0.625    0.512
21    CIN    0.625    0.438
22    WAS    0.625    0.494 -> traded to STL
23    MIN    0.625    0.520
24    IND    0.688    0.441
--------------------------------
25    BAL    0.625    0.496
26    SEA    0.688    0.504
27    GRB    0.688    0.508
28    SFO    0.719    0.504
29    HOU    0.750    0.496
30    NWE    0.750    0.496
31    ATL    0.813    0.422
32    DEN    0.813    0.457


NOTES
1. Top 24 picks are now set. Picks 25-32 are based solely on record and SOS.
2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
3. I should have realized this last week, but since Houston and New England play each other, there is no need for a tiebreaker between them. One will be a divisional round loser (28th) and one will move on to the next tier
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://football.about.com/od/miscinformation/a/detdraftorder.htm

Quote:
Tiebreakers

Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. The team with the lowest strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and picks ahead of all other teams with the same record.

Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
http://football.about.com/od/miscinformation/a/detdraftorder.htm

Quote:
Tiebreakers

Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. The team with the lowest strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and picks ahead of all other teams with the same record.

Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.



http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81d6b708/article/complete-order-of-first-round-of-2011-nfl-draft-determined

Quote:
If ties still exist after applying the strength of schedule tiebreaker, the divisional or conference tiebreakers are applied, if applicable. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, ties will be broken by a coin flip.


I'm going to assume NFL.com knows better than about.com on this one.
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am I missing something or are both mentioning divisional and/of conference tie breakers/records? Is that not the same thing?
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

25.) Seattle Seahawks
26.) Green Bay Packers
27.) Houston Texans
28.) Denver Broncos
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
Am I missing something or are both mentioning divisional and/of conference tie breakers/records? Is that not the same thing?


Way late reply, but if the Redskins and Cowboys were tied then the division tie breaker would be used; if instead the Redskins and Vikings were tied, the conference tie breaker would be used.

Also:

29) NWE
30) ATL
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Full draft order, minus compensatory picks

Code:
OVER    IN
 ALL   ROUND  TEAM     PCT      SOS
  1    1.01    KAN    0.125    0.516
  2    1.02    JAC    0.125    0.539
  3    1.03    OAK    0.250    0.469
  4    1.04    PHI    0.250    0.508
  5    1.05    DET    0.250    0.566
  6    1.06    CLE    0.313    0.508
  7    1.07    ARI    0.313    0.559
  8    1.08    BUF    0.375    0.480
  9    1.09    NYJ    0.375    0.512
 10    1.10    TEN    0.375    0.512
 11    1.11    SDG    0.438    0.457
 12    1.12    MIA    0.438    0.500
 13    1.13    TAM    0.438    0.502
 14    1.14    CAR    0.438    0.516
 15    1.15    NOR    0.438    0.521
 16    1.16    STL    0.469    0.539
 17    1.17    PIT    0.500    0.465
 18    1.18    DAL    0.500    0.523
 19    1.19    NYG    0.563    0.521
 20    1.20    CHI    0.625    0.512
 21    1.21    CIN    0.625    0.438
 22    1.22    WAS    0.625    0.494 --> traded to STL
 23    1.23    MIN    0.625    0.520
 24    1.24    IND    0.688    0.441
 25    1.25    SEA    0.688    0.504
 26    1.26    GRB    0.688    0.508
 27    1.27    HOU    0.750    0.496
 28    1.28    DEN    0.813    0.457
 29    1.29    NWE    0.750    0.496
 30    1.30    ATL    0.813    0.422
 31    1.31    BAL/SFO loser
 32    1.32    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
 33    2.01    JAC
 34    2.02    KAN
 35    2.03    PHI
 36    2.04    DET
 37    2.05    OAK --> traded to CIN
 38    2.06    ARI
[CLE forefeited pick (2012 Supplemental Draft)]
 39    2.07    NYJ
 40    2.08    TEN
 41    2.09    BUF
 42    2.10    MIA
 43    2.11    TAM
 44    2.12    CAR
[NOR forfeited pick (bounty scandal)]
 45    2.13    SDG
 46    2.14    STL
 47    2.15    DAL
 48    2.16    PIT
 49    2.17    NYG
 50    2.18    CHI
 51    2.19    WAS
 52    2.20    MIN
 53    2.21    CIN
 54    2.22    IND --> traded to MIA
 55    2.23    GRB
 56    2.24    SEA
 57    2.25    HOU
 58    2.26    DEN
 59    2.27    NWE
 60    2.28    ATL
 61    2.29    BAL/SFO loser
 62    2.30    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
 63    3.01    KAN
 64    3.02    JAC
 65    3.03    DET
 66    3.04    OAK
 67    3.05    PHI
 68    3.06    CLE
 69    3.07    ARI
 70    3.08    TEN
 71    3.09    BUF
 72    3.10    NYJ
 73    3.11    TAM
 74    3.12    CAR --> traded to SFO
 75    3.13    NOR
 76    3.14    SDG
 77    3.15    MIA
 78    3.16    STL
 79    3.17    PIT
 80    3.18    DAL
 81    3.19    NYG
 82    3.20    CHI --> traded to MIA
 83    3.21    MIN
 84    3.22    CIN
 85    3.23    WAS
 86    3.24    IND
 87    3.25    SEA
 88    3.26    GRB
 89    3.27    HOU
 90    3.28    DEN
 91    3.29    NWE
 92    3.30    ATL
 93    3.31    BAL/SFO loser
 94    3.32    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
 95    4.01    JAC
 96    4.02    KAN
 97    4.03    OAK
 98    4.04    PHI
 99    4.05    DET --> traded to MIN
100    4.06    ARI
101    4.07    CLE
102    4.08    BUF
103    4.09    NYJ
104    4.10    TEN
105    4.11    CAR
106    4.12    NOR
107    4.13    SDG
108    4.14    MIA
109    4.15    TAM
110    4.16    STL
111    4.17    DAL
112    4.18    PIT
113    4.19    NYG
114    4.20    CHI
115    4.21    CIN
116    4.22    WAS
117    4.23    MIN
118    4.24    IND
119    4.25    GRB
120    4.26    SEA
121    4.27    HOU
122    4.28    DEN
123    4.29    NWE --> traded to TAM
124    4.30    ATL
125    4.31    BAL/SFO loser
126    4.32    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
127    5.01    KAN
128    5.02    JAC
129    5.03    PHI
130    5.04    DET
131    5.05    OAK
132    5.06    CLE
133    5.07    ARI
134    5.08    NYJ
135    5.09    TEN
136    5.10    BUF
137    5.11    NOR
138    5.12    SDG
139    5.13    MIA
140    5.14    TAM
141    5.15    CAR
142    5.16    STL
143    5.17    PIT
144    5.18    DAL
145    5.19    NYG
146    5.20    CHI
147    5.21    WAS
148    5.22    MIN
149    5.23    CIN
150    5.24    IND --> traded to SFO
151    5.25    SEA
152    5.26    GRB
153    5.27    HOU
154    5.28    DEN
155    5.29    NWE --> traded to WAS
156    5.30    ATL
157    5.31    BAL/SFO loser
158    5.32    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
159    6.01    JAC
160    6.02    KAN
161    6.03    DET
162    6.04    OAK
163    6.05    PHI
164    6.06    ARI
165    6.07    CLE
166    6.08    TEN --> traded to MIN --> traded to ARI
167    6.09    BUF
168    6.10    NYJ
169    6.11    SDG
170    6.12    MIA --> traded to SFO
171    6.13    TAM
172    6.14    CAR
173    6.15    NOR
174    6.16    STL
175    6.17    DAL
176    6.18    PIT
177    6.19    NYG
178    6.20    CHI
179    6.21    MIN --> traded to ARI
180    6.22    CIN
181    6.23    WAS
182    6.24    IND
183    6.25    GRB
184    6.26    SEA
185    6.27    HOU
186    6.28    DEN
187    6.29    NWE --> traded to CIN
188    6.30    ATL
189    6.31    BAL/SFO loser
190    6.32    BAL/SFO winner
------------------------------
191    7.01    KAN
192    7.02    JAC
193    7.03    OAK
194    7.04    PHI
195    7.05    DET
196    7.06    CLE
197    7.07    ARI --> traded to MIN
198    7.08    BUF --> traded to SEA
199    7.09    NYJ
200    7.10    TEN
201    7.11    MIA
202    7.12    TAM --> traded to NWE
203    7.13    CAR --> traded to OAK
204    7.14    NOR
205    7.15    SDG
206    7.16    STL
207    7.17    PIT
208    7.18    DAL --> traded to MIA
209    7.19    NYG
210    7.20    CHI --> traded to TAM
211    7.21    CIN --> traded to SFO
212    7.22    WAS
213    7.23    MIN
214    7.24    IND --> traded to PHI
215    7.25    SEA
216    7.26    GRB
217    7.27    HOU
218    7.28    DEN
219    7.29    NWE
220    7.30    ATL
221    7.31    BAL/SFO loser
222    7.32    BAL/SFO winner



All trade information courtesy of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_Draft

They also include the following tidbits:
Arrow Denver traded an undisclosed pick to Philadelphia for DT Broderick Bunkley.
Arrow New Orleans traded an undisclosed pick to Seattle for LB Barrett Ruud.
Arrow Oaland traded a conditional fourth or fifth round pick for LB Aaron Curry.
Arrow Philadelphia traded an undisclosed pick to Cleveland for S David Sims.
Arrow Seattle traded a conditional seventh round pick to Tampa Bay for TE Kellen Winslow Jr. (since one of the conditions was Winslow making the roster, which he didn't, this may be void).

If you know the outcome of these, please tell me.
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
stallyns wrote:
Am I missing something or are both mentioning divisional and/of conference tie breakers/records? Is that not the same thing?


Way late reply, but if the Redskins and Cowboys were tied then the division tie breaker would be used; if instead the Redskins and Vikings were tied, the conference tie breaker would be used.

Also:

29) NWE
30) ATL
correct, you stated that the Jets/Titans and Pats/Texans tie breakers were based on H2H. That was my whole contention.

Woz wrote:
2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
3. Order right now of the playoff teams is solely based on record and SOS. I'll update the numbers once they play.
4. In the event that the Texans and Patriots lose in the Divisional Round, the Texans would pick before New England due to the Patriots win over Houston.


The Colts 7th rounder was retained. Wikipedia has bad info.
Nobody wrote:
http://www.thestarpress.com/article/BG/20121215/SPORTS03/212160342/Colts-notebook-GM-Ryan-Grigson-has-no-regrets-bringing-CB-Vontae-Davis?nclick_check=1

"To land Davis, Grigson sent the Dolphins a 2013 second-round draft pick along with a conditional sixth-rounder. The Colts regain the latter because Davis won't meet the play-time conditions."

"Along with recouping the conditional '13 sixth-round pick, Grigson said the Colts also regain the conditional seventh-rounder they sent to Philadelphia for linebackers Moise Fokou and Greg Lloyd. Lloyd didn't make the roster while Fokou, like Davis, won't meet the play-time benchmark.".
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iRobot


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just thought I'd help those making mocks for all 7 rounds.

Arizona Cardinals have these picks this coming draft..

Round 1 - 7th overall
Round 2 - 38th overall
Round 3 - 69th overall
Round 4 - 100th overall
Round 5 - 133rd overall
Round 6 - 165th overall
Round 6 - 168th overall
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iRobot wrote:
Just thought I'd help those making mocks for all 7 rounds.

Arizona Cardinals have these picks this coming draft..

Round 1 - 7th overall
Round 2 - 38th overall
Round 3 - 69th overall
Round 4 - 100th overall
Round 5 - 133rd overall
Round 6 - 165th overall
Round 6 - 168th overall
nothing after the second round is set in stone until compensatory picks are announced.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
iRobot wrote:
Just thought I'd help those making mocks for all 7 rounds.

Arizona Cardinals have these picks this coming draft..

Round 1 - 7th overall
Round 2 - 38th overall
Round 3 - 69th overall
Round 4 - 100th overall
Round 5 - 133rd overall
Round 6 - 165th overall
Round 6 - 168th overall
nothing after the second round is set in stone until compensatory picks are announced.


Arent the first 3 set because comp picks are at the end of the round?
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