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FFMLB The WAR edition
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
Posts: 47651
PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its A Sabotage wrote:
Y U GUYS LET DEVILS GET BOFF OF DEM?!

At least he didn't get Kershaw.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326's 1st round analysis

What fun would a draft be without an unobjective observer analysing every move with no knowledge of the actual thought process or plan of the war room. So I shall take the mantle, at least as long as I have the time. I'll be sweet and sour, kind and ruthless, and peanut butter and jelly (I don't know what that means either).

1. Mike Trout- Pretty much a given to be the 1st pick. No need to go into it, we're all smart enough to know this was really the only legitimate pick at 1.
2. Matt Kemp- Early surprise. Definitely has the talent, and has put it together but 2 years ago. Started hot last year before some injuries limited him. Risky pick given some players with a similar ceiling but much higher floor, but could pay off big.
3. Giancarlo Stanton- Interesting selection this early. Power is not in question, but was the increase in hitting the progression of young player, or just a 1 year jump. A 6 percentage point jump in LD% from 2011 to 2012 is fairly substantial. If it is his new normal he has the upside of where Braun currently is. But more risk.
4. Ryan Braun- Gift to fall this low. 2 straight 7+ WAR seasons and in the prime of his career for this contract (29-32 year seasons). The only thing that looks to possibly derail him would be a PED suspension, but that isn't something you can bet on.
5. Buster Posey- Not feeling this one. Great season last year, but there will likely be regression. Factor in a position that doesn't tend to have longevity and even at his young age betting on him producing at pick 5 level for 4 years questionable. Saving grace, as was pointed out, is that he is last catcher out there that will could end up in a platoon in a position that requires 2 starters. Even with a regression, it would be shocking if he falls below the top 3rd of #1 catchers.
6. Miguel Cabrera- It's pretty amazing that the triple crown winner isn't a sexy pick, but in this game its true. His horrid defense will always keep his WAR down despite being the best hitter in baseball. So the upside of these other guys isn't there, but he is as sure a bet as there is to get 6+ WAR every season. Whether you like the pick comes down to philosphy: Should your leader be great but safe or potentially otherworldly but a bit risky.
7. Bryce Harper- Opening day notwithstanding it still isn't likely he is worth the pick this year. My estimate is about a 5.5 WAR player. Certainly not bad but not where some of these others are. However, that comes with a potentially double digit WAR upside on the backend. Add to that he isn't really even boom or bust; he's boom or nuclear explosion and this is a solid gamble at this point in the first round.
8. Joey Votto- WAR over the last 3 years: 6.8, 6.4, 5.6 (in only 111 games). 6.5 WAR is on lock sans injury, and there is no extended history to suggest last year was anything more than a one off.
9. David Wright- Was last year a true return to his form of 5 years ago or a 1 year abboration? I'm particularly concerned with the fielding rating. After being rated pretty heavy negative for 3 straight years he then posts a number that more than double his best in any other season of his career. Then there have been some injury issues. Best case scenerio this is a valid pick. But he comes with a lot of risk of going down to 3.5-4.0 WAR seasons.
10. Robinson Cano- Great on offense. While my eye, with many others also says great defense UZR hasn't agreed until last year. This can lead to a WAR that will be somewhere in between 5 and 8. Pretty wide margin, but still the most likely to remain as the top of his position throughout the contract.
11. Andrew McCutchen- Very good hitter, but I'm not buying the .375 BABIP. Add to that a defense rating that again doesn't match up to what the eye ball says (we need a better metric, stat...pun intended), and I'd estimate more a 5.5-6 WAR player than the guy pushing 7 like he was rated last year. Still solid value, a potentially higher if a new defensive metric comes out for fangraphs to use.
12. Jason Heyward- So much talent on both sides of the ball. If he keeps progressing this will be a steal.
13. Clayton Kershaw- No doubt he is a great pitcher and should be one of the top 3 off the board. But, I'm not sure the justification for him over Verlander. Despite the age difference Verlander is still going to be in prime years (30-33) and Kershaw despite youth isn't a good candidate to get better than he is now (more of function of how good he is now than a slight on him). With that said the value itself is still there for the pick, and it is unlikely that there will be deep regret over it.
14. Evan Longoria- Simple analysis. If healthy it's a steal, but that is questionable. At the end of the 1st its a good gamble.
15. Troy Tulowitzki- See Evan Longoria
16. Stephen Strasburg- Only pitcher that looks to have the ability to hit double digit WAR. But he'll have to came back even more from the TJ Surgery. Extrapolating last years WAR over 220 innings is about 5.6. Even with a little more improvement he can take the mantle as the top SP.

In the future ones I may do a best pick/worst pick but there really isn't a need here. Unsurprisingly, given that this board and the people in the draft in particular get stats, there really aren't any bad picks or clear steals as everyone goes about where they should given the various risk vs. reward scenerios. With a group like this it is going to be the middle rounds that win or lose the league. Correctly projecting those who will fall off to avoid and picking those diamonds that will break out.
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Last edited by mse326 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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as11osu


Joined: 24 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

18. keepnitgangsta1 - 6 PM EST
19. KhanYouDigIt - 7 PM EST
20. green24 - 8 PM EST
21. Jeezy Fanatic - 9 PM EST
22. Mesa_Titan - 10 PM EST
23. Buckrock101 - 11 PM EST
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Jeezy Fanatic


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liking the analysis. Thanks mse
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Mesa_Titan


Joined: 20 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow. This draft sucks. Laughing
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thoughts on the Wieters pick?
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Mesa_Titan


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reach based on his game today.
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Mesa_Titan


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reach based on his game today.
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mesa_Titan wrote:
Reach based on his game today.

Only a double and a homer? Why not 2 homers? Laughing
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Mesa_Titan


Joined: 20 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

green24 wrote:
Mesa_Titan wrote:
Reach based on his game today.

Only a double and a homer? Why not 2 homers? Laughing


No, I mean you reached on him based on his game today. Wink
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mesa_Titan wrote:
green24 wrote:
Mesa_Titan wrote:
Reach based on his game today.

Only a double and a homer? Why not 2 homers? Laughing


No, I mean you reached on him based on his game today. Wink

I didn't look at his stats until after you posted that. I reached because of the scarcity of quality catchers. I decided to take him rather than take a certain position player now and a certain catching prospect later.
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Jeezy Fanatic


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wieters and King Felix were actually tops of my big board, so with RF already taken care of decided to go middle infield.
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green24


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great pick, Mesa. I had Bautista written in, but I changed to Wieters before pressing submit.
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Mesa_Titan


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

green24 wrote:
Great pick, Mesa. I had Bautista written in, but I changed to Wieters before pressing submit.


Thanks. Bit of a risk, like I said, but 6-7 WAR potentially this year.
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green24


Joined: 10 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mesa_Titan wrote:
green24 wrote:
Great pick, Mesa. I had Bautista written in, but I changed to Wieters before pressing submit.


Thanks. Bit of a risk, like I said, but 6-7 WAR potentially this year.

Yep. When I saw fangraphs had basically the same WAR projections for both, I decided to go with the younger player at the more valuable position.
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