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Are my concerns about Alfred Morris justified?
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with everything you wrote Ace except that Helu and/or Thompson won't dip into Morris' carries/playing time this year.

Helu only played one game all season, he had 2 carries in that game and 7 targets and 7 receptions and Helu didn't finish the game.

Royster had 23 attempts and 23 targets last year.

Helu and/or Thompson will get more touches than Royster did if Helu's one game is indicative of how they will be used.

At the rate Helu was being used, he would have had twice as many carries as Royster which certainly would dip into Alfred Morris' carries and 4 times as many targets (which probably wouldn't have ended up being the case) but I could see Helu and/or Thompson combining for 40 to 50 receptions through the air and getting 50 + carries combined on the season as well.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Brian23 wrote:
The problem with Helu isn't talent or ability, its whether he can remain healthy. He's not viewed as a mainstay back but a good 3rd down change of pace type, and we're still waiting to see if he can maintain himself in that role.

Royster is gonna have to be "the guy" on a team to really be any good. He's a solid RB, but he's a volume guy. Until he gets 20 rushes a game, he's not gonna do much for you.

EDIT: Also, when has Shanny EVER been negative about a player he's talked about in the media? Even when we know they're not bringing much, he's always spoke glowingly of everyone.
Well he was negative about two ex-Qbs who he traded for. It just seems everyone in Redskins Nation is giving Chris Thompson a pass and calling Helu injury prone.

Just doesn't make sense to me.

When has Thompson ever stayed healthy and that was in the acc?


Who was the second QB he traded for?

And he always spoke highly of McNabb, even when we knew he was full of [inappropriate/removed].

And I'm not giving Thompson a pass, but Thompson being injury prone has [inappropriate/removed] all to do with Helu being injury prone as well.
oh, I guess he didn't trade for Plummer, he signed him in free agency.

Did you miss the press conference after the Detroit game in 2010?
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

markrc99 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote: "And the drafting of the RBs is a major concern for me, the fact he drafted 2 plus having Royster and Helu makes me very nervous to take him as my primary back which is what he would be bc he probably is going round 1."

I agree with most everything that's been said, there isn't a guy on the roster who's going to threaten Morris' role as the featured back. Helu runs real tentative and he still got hurt & as noted, is likely competing with Chris Thompson to be their down & distance back. Royster looked much leaner to me last year, perhaps in an attempt to add a half-step. The guy I think will stick is Jamison, because he can do both. Again, Shanahan drafted Morris because he didn't have that workhorse. The guys they drafted this year are more suited to provide that home run threat out of the backfield.

This is just my opinion, but I think you're missing out on the real fun. Have you ever tried "NFL- Call The Play"? You try this, believe me, you won't go back to stat tracking. It's live competition, you choose a game & score by correctly determining whether the play is run or pass. You score higher by determining the ball carrier or rec'r (X,Y or Z) & the area of the field the ball is thrown. Score higher still by anticipating the blitz! There's no dialing the sack, but those are still scored. I think it was selecting pass & the QB that gets the player the most pts. The 1st time I saw it or something like it was about 15 yrs ago, so what they're doing with it now, I cant say. But today, you can create your own league or group & even download an app for your mobile phone. Ha-ha. Given that it's played in real time, the real trick is to get as good a pre-snap look as you can. If you prefer to entertain, nothing is going to get your family & friends over more than this. http://www.nfl.com/live/call-the-play
Helu runs tentative? Since when? He's a speedy back but he also runs with some power, I wouldn't say he runs tentative just because he doesn't run like a Morris. In 2011 he was running around, through and jumping over defenders.
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DCRED


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
Im hoping Morris has less carries and yards. 200-250 carries and 1000-1200 yards would be perfect. Morris will not be long for this league if he continues to carry the ball 300+ times. His body will break down like so many before him. I would like to see Morris be used more toward the end of games when we have a lead to pound Ds. We need a balanced attack early in games a good mix of Morris/Helu/thompson!!! I like the mix of power and speed.
I personally think Royster will be cut. If thompson can get healthy, I think he will make the 53 with Jamison on PS. If Thompson needs more time to heal, he will be PUPed and Jamison will make the 53........Just my opinion.


Agree with this

Also, I believe using the other backs is going to stretch the coverages out towards the edge more and open up our TE game finally

That "balanced attack" should open up more explosive plays than last year
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With regards to Morris as a fantasy RB, yes, I suspect his rushing numbers will go down to the benefit of a Helu/Thompson/whoever. That said, I'm not sure it will go down as far as 200 carries down from 335 (outside of injury). You have to figure that the #2 RB's numbers will also go up because of Griffin's rushes will come down from 120.

I would be surprised to see our rush:pass ratio make a 10% switch like you are discussing ace. It worked for us being as run heavy as we were. It set up the deep pass for us. It might move to more 52:48 run:pass, but to switch all the way to 45:55 would be a major switch for us.

In any event, Morris ran for 4.8 YPC on 335 carries. If we lower that down to 250 carries, it would mean about 1200 yards. That would put him at the 11th best RB last year (Gore had 1214 yards), but 7th was Steven Ridley at 1263. That's still good enough for a #1 RB.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you really expect to throw it much more this year? I know RG3 is running now, but i figured they would run it about the same(maybe not as much with Morris, but still the same if not more) to make sure RG3 doesnt get put in harms way more til his knee is 100% recovered
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markrc99


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote: "Helu runs tentative? Since when? He's a speedy back but he also runs with some power, I wouldn't say he runs tentative just because he doesn't run like a Morris. In 2011 he was running around, through and jumping over defenders."

If I recall, Helu was productive near the end of his rookie season & I was expecting more from him last year, but he's not a guy who runs with a lot of conviction. I agree with what was said earlier, Morris & now Thompson & Jamison are memos to somebody. Any ideas?
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Do you really expect to throw it much more this year? I know RG3 is running now, but i figured they would run it about the same(maybe not as much with Morris, but still the same if not more) to make sure RG3 doesnt get put in harms way more til his knee is 100% recovered
here's what will likely happen.

RG3 WILL run LESS Wink

Rg3 had 120 rushes last year. I don't see that happening again.

Woz is right, Morris carries won't drop a huge amount. It will probably be in the 250 to 300 range instead of 335

Rg3's totals for rushes should be below 100 where he decides to be a ball carrier on the read option

Helu and Thompson will at most get 10 carries a game, but I don't even see that much.

Morris will have 15 to 20 carries a game in most games. He'll end up with around 1300 YDs and the same about of TDs.

Again, RG3 won't run as much, he will throw more and Rg3 won't have as many rushing touchdowns, he will have more throwing touchdowns this year.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Do you really expect to throw it much more this year? I know RG3 is running now, but i figured they would run it about the same(maybe not as much with Morris, but still the same if not more) to make sure RG3 doesnt get put in harms way more til his knee is 100% recovered
here's what will likely happen.

RG3 WILL run LESS Wink

Rg3 had 120 rushes last year. I don't see that happening again.

Woz is right, Morris carries won't drop a huge amount. It will probably be in the 250 to 300 range instead of 335

Rg3's totals for rushes should be below 100 where he decides to be a ball carrier on the read option

Helu and Thompson will at most get 10 carries a game, but I don't even see that much.

Morris will have 15 to 20 carries a game in most games. He'll end up with around 1300 YDs and the same about of TDs.

Again, RG3 won't run as much, he will throw more and Rg3 won't have as many rushing touchdowns, he will have more throwing touchdowns this year.


If his carries drop 50 or so that is pretty significant imo. RG3 def will run less if he wants to have a significant career
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Do you really expect to throw it much more this year? I know RG3 is running now, but i figured they would run it about the same(maybe not as much with Morris, but still the same if not more) to make sure RG3 doesnt get put in harms way more til his knee is 100% recovered
here's what will likely happen.

RG3 WILL run LESS Wink

Rg3 had 120 rushes last year. I don't see that happening again.

Woz is right, Morris carries won't drop a huge amount. It will probably be in the 250 to 300 range instead of 335

Rg3's totals for rushes should be below 100 where he decides to be a ball carrier on the read option

Helu and Thompson will at most get 10 carries a game, but I don't even see that much.

Morris will have 15 to 20 carries a game in most games. He'll end up with around 1300 YDs and the same about of TDs.

Again, RG3 won't run as much, he will throw more and Rg3 won't have as many rushing touchdowns, he will have more throwing touchdowns this year.


If his carries drop 50 or so that is pretty significant imo. RG3 def will run less if he wants to have a significant career
yeah, I guess 50 carries is 3 less carries a game. Still, I'd expect it if Helu is Morris' main back up.
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Brian23


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Brian23 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Brian23 wrote:
The problem with Helu isn't talent or ability, its whether he can remain healthy. He's not viewed as a mainstay back but a good 3rd down change of pace type, and we're still waiting to see if he can maintain himself in that role.

Royster is gonna have to be "the guy" on a team to really be any good. He's a solid RB, but he's a volume guy. Until he gets 20 rushes a game, he's not gonna do much for you.

EDIT: Also, when has Shanny EVER been negative about a player he's talked about in the media? Even when we know they're not bringing much, he's always spoke glowingly of everyone.
Well he was negative about two ex-Qbs who he traded for. It just seems everyone in Redskins Nation is giving Chris Thompson a pass and calling Helu injury prone.

Just doesn't make sense to me.

When has Thompson ever stayed healthy and that was in the acc?


Who was the second QB he traded for?

And he always spoke highly of McNabb, even when we knew he was full of [inappropriate/removed].

And I'm not giving Thompson a pass, but Thompson being injury prone has [inappropriate/removed] all to do with Helu being injury prone as well.
oh, I guess he didn't trade for Plummer, he signed him in free agency.

Did you miss the press conference after the Detroit game in 2010?


He was still being -extremely- nice about the entire situation. Even at that point, I'm not sure their's a point where you can do enough to get negative responses from Shanny.
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DCRED


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
With regards to Morris as a fantasy RB, yes, I suspect his rushing numbers will go down to the benefit of a Helu/Thompson/whoever. That said, I'm not sure it will go down as far as 200 carries down from 335 (outside of injury). You have to figure that the #2 RB's numbers will also go up because of Griffin's rushes will come down from 120.

I would be surprised to see our rush:pass ratio make a 10% switch like you are discussing ace. It worked for us being as run heavy as we were. It set up the deep pass for us. It might move to more 52:48 run:pass, but to switch all the way to 45:55 would be a major switch for us.

In any event, Morris ran for 4.8 YPC on 335 carries. If we lower that down to 250 carries, it would mean about 1200 yards. That would put him at the 11th best RB last year (Gore had 1214 yards), but 7th was Steven Ridley at 1263. That's still good enough for a #1 RB.


1200 Yards was exactly where I was thinking too, Woz.
I also think his TD's go down as they explore other options inside the Red Zone, to about 11 TDs on the year... Although if RG3 runs less around the goal line he may get a few of those which would increase his TD total... But he should be a Lock for more than 10 in any event...
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aceinthehouse


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We had the #1 rushing attack last season with 2,709 yards & 22 TD's as a team.
The numbers broke down as is:
Alfred Morris=335 attempts for 1,613 yards & 13 TD's
RG3=120 attempts for 813 yards & 7 TD's

Which was 88% in attempts as a team.
90% of our rushing attack in yards.
& 91% in TD's

The next best contributor was Evan Royster with 23 attempts for 88 yards & 2 TD's.

If we were to get the same results in 2013, as we did last year? (which would be awesome)
I would like to see the breakdown go like this...

Alfred Morris=285 attempts(50 less) for 1,400 yards & 10 TD's (4.9 yards/per carry)
RG3=70 attempts(50 less attempts) for 600 yards & 5 TD's(8.6 yards/per carry)
68% of our rushing attack in attempts
68% of our TD production
74% in yards

Then the rest of team account for the remaining
709 yards
164 attempts
7 TD's
---------
4.3 yards/per carry for remaining team
32% in attempts
32% in remaining TD production
& 26% in remaining yards
All divided up between Helu, Thompson, Jamison, Royster, Young, WR Reverses, other players, etc.

This would be a very nice distribution, if we were to get the same rushing statistical breakdown as last year.

The important thing is...We need to find a way to get others more involved & still get quality production.

We can't allow RG3 & Morris to be 90% of our running game every season, or they won't last long. We need to get others involved in our offense.

This could explain why we drafted 2 more RB's, for those still confused on that.
Shanahan knows this & wants to protect our 2 star players.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aceinthehouse wrote:
We had the #1 rushing attack last season with 2,709 yards & 22 TD's as a team.
The numbers broke down as is:
Alfred Morris=335 attempts for 1,613 yards & 13 TD's
RG3=120 attempts for 813 yards & 7 TD's

Which was 88% in attempts as a team.
90% of our rushing attack in yards.
& 91% in TD's

The next best contributor was Evan Royster with 23 attempts for 88 yards & 2 TD's.

If we were to get the same results in 2013, as we did last year? (which would be awesome)
I would like to see the breakdown go like this...

Alfred Morris=285 attempts(50 less) for 1,400 yards & 10 TD's (4.9 yards/per carry)
RG3=70 attempts(50 less attempts) for 600 yards & 5 TD's(8.6 yards/per carry)
68% of our rushing attack in attempts
68% of our TD production
74% in yards

Then the rest of team account for the remaining
709 yards
164 attempts
7 TD's
---------
4.3 yards/per carry for remaining team
32% in attempts
32% in remaining TD production
& 26% in remaining yards
All divided up between Helu, Thompson, Jamison, Royster, Young, WR Reverses, other players, etc.

This would be a very nice distribution, if we were to get the same rushing statistical breakdown as last year.

The important thing is...We need to find a way to get others more involved & still get quality production.


We can't allow RG3 & Morris to be 90% of our running game every season, or they won't last long. We need to get others involved in our offense.

This could explain why we drafted 2 more RB's, for those still confused on that.

Shanahan knows this & wants to protect our 2 star players.
You had me till here.

1. All those players are not making the team
2. You didn't include RG3 in that group. I'm sure RG3 will still run this year, he did last year even when he was hurt bad the last month of the season. I don't think he's going have 120 rushes but probably around:


100 for 500 YDs and 4 or 5 Tds.

3. Helu & Thompson combine for 400 to 500 yards for 2 Tds
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Do you really expect to throw it much more this year? I know RG3 is running now, but i figured they would run it about the same(maybe not as much with Morris, but still the same if not more) to make sure RG3 doesnt get put in harms way more til his knee is 100% recovered
here's what will likely happen.

RG3 WILL run LESS Wink

Rg3 had 120 rushes last year. I don't see that happening again.

Woz is right, Morris carries won't drop a huge amount. It will probably be in the 250 to 300 range instead of 335

Rg3's totals for rushes should be below 100 where he decides to be a ball carrier on the read option

Helu and Thompson will at most get 10 carries a game, but I don't even see that much.

Morris will have 15 to 20 carries a game in most games. He'll end up with around 1300 YDs and the same about of TDs.

Again, RG3 won't run as much, he will throw more and Rg3 won't have as many rushing touchdowns, he will have more throwing touchdowns this year.


If his carries drop 50 or so that is pretty significant imo. RG3 def will run less if he wants to have a significant career
yeah, I guess 50 carries is 3 less carries a game. Still, I'd expect it if Helu is Morris' main back up.


Idk if you are being sarcastic or not but it would be about 2-3 points a game depending on if you count his TDs possibly suffering too
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