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Let's talk about trading down from 21
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Which of these is most likely?
Option 1: A QB hungry team
61%
 61%  [ 11 ]
Option 2: A WR/CB team
22%
 22%  [ 4 ]
Option 3: You're crazy. Go Home. Stop thinking, you're not good at it.
16%
 16%  [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 18

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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 192
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:25 pm    Post subject: Let's talk about trading down from 21 Reply with quote

So let's be honest for a minute. Most folks agree that there are 5 positions of need for the Pack in rounds 1-3: S, ILB, TE, WR, and NT. Now, IMO Haha, Pryor, Mosley and Ebron could all be gone by the time 21 comes, and it might be a little early to start with Hageman or Nix, and WR can be had later for a team that already has quality starters like GB. I think TT goes to bed at night dreaming about how he could trade down out of the spot, so let's make a short list of potential suitors. The pick is somewhat expensive, but still close enough that someone won't have to give up the farm. I think that they're are two groups that could grab the 21 spot from us:

1. A team that needs a QB (more likely)

Explanation: The top of this years QB is filled with question marks. The teams in this area have continually been burned by poorly performing QBs drafted high. At the same time, they've watched Seattle and SF draft QBs in the second round and play great. I think teams will be looking to find that second round talent to draft and also get a top flight player at the top of the draft. These teams include Houston, Jacksonville, and Cleveland. Other teams not considered (and their reasons why) include:

Oakland - they have Schaub, so they wait on QB for a round or so.

Minnesota and Tennessee - Neither team will want to pay the price it would gonna cost to get to 21 when they can simply draft a QB that slides to them at pick 8 or 11.

Tampa Bay - they only have 4 picks this year (what do their fans talk about during the offseason?), so they will probably just wait and see who falls to them, since they don't really have the ammo to move.

Overall analysis: If Arizona doesn't select a QB, the door will be wide open for each of the three teams. Cleveland is at 26, so if either JAX or HOU wants a QB, they may have to trade up to get ahead of them. Each of these teams has the picks to do this, so it makes sense for one of them to trade into the spot if they want someone like Bortles or Carr. It will cost these teams the equivalent of their second and third to move up, but these teams also have the mid round picks to justify giving up something to get to 21.

2. A team that needs a CB or WR (less likely)

If you look at the teams picking from 22-32, 8 of the 11 need a CB and 6 of the 11 need a WR, based on my analysis (subjective, I know). If a team is real need of either of these positions, and has their heart set on a guy, they might have to move up to make this possible. Of these teams, there are two in my opinion that have the ammunition to trade up:

San Fran: They have a fantastic roster, and 11 picks. There's no reason for them to draft guys that won't make their roster, so they may just opt to trade up to get someone they like. It will likely only cost them their third and first round pick to move up the 9 spots, so it makes some sense.

Washington: This team is not a huge fan of drafting guys, so they may just be crazy enough to do it. They only have a pick per round in rounds 2-7, so they are limited. However, their biggest need is a CB, and they may not want to sit at the top of round 2 while everyone at the bottom of round 1 is grabbing up the CBs. It would end up costing them their second and third, so its not likely. However, teams that trade up seldom do so in predictable fashion.

Other teams: I didn't consider many others, simply because most of them don't have the draft pick arsenal that SF does. Also, most of these teams don't traditionally trade up.

Thoughts? Comments? Teams I missed? I'd love hear some feedback, especially on whether or not this is likely to happen.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 2263
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that a trade down is very real if TT sees less value at #21. Either option could happen, though I personally feel the teams wanting to move up for a WR/CB (or any non-QB position) might be more likely vs a QB needy team.

Other teams besides SF:
Carolina
New Orleans
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BrettFavre004


Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 20183
Location: Galesville, WI
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are actually quite a few teams that could use an ILB just past us. If we don't love Mosley and he drops to 21, I could see a team moving up to get ahead of Philly for him.

Small chance for Shazier or Van Noy as well if some team likes him inside.


If Taylor Lewan slides, Carolina might look to be moving up.


San Fran, Cleveland and New England all have lots of ammo, although NE doesn't seem to move up in the first ever.
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Mattwaukee


Joined: 22 Jan 2009
Posts: 4003
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naa
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fattlipp


Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 668
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Gilbert or Dennard fall to us, I could see SF giving the 1(30) & 2(56) for 1(21) and 3(85).

That would give us 3 picks between 1(30)-2(56)

We could land our S,TE,ILB

1(30) Shazier
2(53) Ward
2(56) Amaro
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BrettFavre004


Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 20183
Location: Galesville, WI
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fattlipp wrote:
If Gilbert or Dennard fall to us, I could see SF giving the 1(30) & 2(56) for 1(21) and 3(85).

That would give us 3 picks between 1(30)-2(56)

We could land our S,TE,ILB

1(30) Shazier
2(53) Ward
2(56) Amaro

I would take Gilbert or Denard unless they offer 30 and 56.
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
Posts: 2161
Location: Kinston, NC
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to surprise y'all.


I think St. Louis trades up.

They've already got 2 picks in the top-15 and I could easily see them going Greg Robinson at 2 and then someone like Dennard at 13 and then trading up for Derek Carr. Rumor has it that they're shopping Bradford so unless Bridgewater slides to 13. I don't see them shocking the world and taking Bortles/Manziel at 2. I'm guessing they'd give us a 2nd from this year, a 2nd next year, and a 3rd.

Cleveland's an obvious one and they do boneheaded crap constantly but I don't think it'd be worth trading down with them unless they gave us a 3rd rounder or something as well.

Tennessee would be another possibility with Locker's health, but they don't have the picks to move up. If anything, they might actually move down to get more picks. They don't have a 3rd and got no comp picks.
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Tongue-Splitter


Joined: 30 Aug 2013
Posts: 2384
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like the idea this year because it's a market for teams trying to trade up. We wouldn't get as good value this year as we would other years.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 2263
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't like the idea this year because it's a market for teams trying to trade up. We wouldn't get as good value this year as we would other years.


While I agree that trading up this year might cost less as there might be more teams looking to trade down (supply vs demand economics issue), TT seems to always have a high value for more picks vs less picks. More picks gives him more "swings at the plate" to find success with those picks.

It likely all depends on how TT has the tiers of players. If he has options at/around pick #21, he makes the pick, but if moving down adds another pick in a "value rich tier" in the 2nd/3rd/4th, etc.... then trading down is a very real possibility.

For me, this is part of what makes the draft exciting...to see the maneuvering with the picks.
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Tongue-Splitter


Joined: 30 Aug 2013
Posts: 2384
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be really really happy with a trade down if Clinton-Dix and Eric Ebron are both gone (yes, I've jumped right on the Ebron bandwagon right at the time where it's clear he won't be available). But I'd be pretty disappointed with a trade down if we didn't use our first or second round pick on a safety. To me, safety is the only position we NEED to upgrade (whether it's Hyde playing well at safety or a high draft pick). Every other position at this point is a luxury.
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PossibleCabbage


Joined: 25 Apr 2011
Posts: 3300
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BrettFavre004 wrote:
NE doesn't seem to move up in the first ever.


?

They traded #27 and #93 to move up to #21 in 2012.
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Skypilot


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 750
PostPosted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BrettFavre004 wrote:
There are actually quite a few teams that could use an ILB just past us. If we don't love Mosley and he drops to 21, I could see a team moving up to get ahead of Philly for him.

Small chance for Shazier or Van Noy as well if some team likes him inside.


If Taylor Lewan slides, Carolina might look to be moving up.


San Fran, Cleveland and New England all have lots of ammo, although NE doesn't seem to move up in the first ever.


They did it twice in 2012 when Belichick out drafted TT for defense grabbing Chandler Jones AND Hightower in R1, Jones a trade-up. Jones > Worthy (also a trade-up) and Hightower is > than Terrell Manning, AJ Hawk and Brad Jones.

I wouldn't mind the trade-down as long as TT gets enough value and they draft a guy that's Jordy Nelson's caliber (no matter the position) in the top 1/3 of R2. Maybe that's JC Amaro, Stephon Tuitt or fuller, whom everybody is high on.
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 192
PostPosted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:

For me, this is part of what makes the draft exciting...to see the maneuvering with the picks.


I totally agree. I sometimes think that I enjoy watching general managers build a team more than I like watching football itself.
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BrettFavre004


Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 20183
Location: Galesville, WI
PostPosted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pgwingman wrote:
squire12 wrote:

For me, this is part of what makes the draft exciting...to see the maneuvering with the picks.


I totally agree. I sometimes think that I enjoy watching general managers build a team more than I like watching football itself.


Yeah, don't play Madden much anymore, if ever, but I was much more likely to sim all the games, do a thorough box score check after each game and get back to the offseason, could get through 2-3 seasons in a good day.

EA came out with a General Manager game a while back, I was quite excited for it, but I was not impressed.
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2779
PostPosted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see TT more likely to trade up in later rounds than trade down in round 1. There will be too many good players in positions of need at 21 to take a pass. It would have to be a pretty sweet deal for TT to trade out of round 1 IMO.
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