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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FWIW, I also get why the idea of drafting Mixon is so toxic to people. So don't mistake my posts as being gung-ho to take him. I just don't think it's a slam dunk DND for all of the reasons above.

But if we also all agreed, then we'd have nothing interesting to talk about until Draft Day. Cool
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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germ-x


Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
FWIW, I also get why the idea of drafting Mixon is so toxic to people. So don't mistake my posts as being gung-ho to take him. I just don't think it's a slam dunk DND for all of the reasons above.

But if we also all agreed, then we'd have nothing interesting to talk about until Draft Day. Cool


The thing with Mixon, that I outlined before, is one could argue he's the best RB in the draft. His physical skill set very much compares to Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson. He's a do it all back with prototype measurables. Physically/skill set wise he's a 1st round lock without his past history.

As I said, I don't want him, but he will get drafted, he'll be a bargain wherever he is selected and I 100% guarantee in 2-3 years if he has the success he is capable of having not many on that teams fan base will care as long as he keeps his nose clean.

I'm not saying it is right, but that's how it has and for the foreseeable future will always work. You can look at countless examples of this happening across pro sports. As long as you're producing NFL teams and their fans are incredibly forgiving.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, with the draft approaching, figure we should talk about our other needs beyond Rd 1-2.

Pretty clear we have the following needs:

LT
ILB
3-4 DE
TE
NT (Peko is a 1-year stopgap solution, and while I like Kerr, gotta have more than him as plan B)
CB
3rd WR (would like to find one through FA, but outside of 3-4 guys, who all have injury risk, and some who fit more as outside WR's, where we'd be better with a slot guy, well, it's tough).

LT has been talked extensively. Don't know if we can break new ground...except to highlight the developmental tier - Dion Dawkins, Julian Davenport, and Antonio Garcia. Garcia's big problem is short wingspan, while Dawkins is seen as much to be a G prospect by some, and Davenport is sushi-level raw, and more importantly, for our scheme, doesn't have a great power game. Taylor Moton, another guy who might be better at G, seems a better power fit, but very limited to RT at best. If we don't hit the Ramczyk/Bolles/Robinson/Lamp/Feeney (the last 2 being interior OL) tier of OL, I'd see one of those guys going Rd 3-4 (remember we have 3 picks there in Rds 3-4).

For ILB, while everyone would love Rueben Foster, it's hard to see him fall to 20, even if he did have that Combine incident. Zach Cunningham has that one bugaboo that's scary - tackling. So, who does that leave? Well, Hassan Riddick has shown he can play both EDGE and ILB, but his versatility makes it really likely he goes in Rd 1, and hard to believe he'll be there at 2.51.

The guys who are more likely to be at Rd 3-4? My favorite if we wait until Day 3 would Duke Riley, only a 1-year starter at LSU, but had to wait behind some seriously good predecessors in Kwon Alexander and then Deion Jones, so there's context. Frankly, I think he's a better fit for our 3-4 than his more touted ILB teammate, Kendall Beckwith. There's also an opportunity for an injured ILB to fall - Jarrad Davis from Florida. I don't think he'd fall past our 3.82, but that would be great value for what was originally thought to be as high as a top 50 pick. Finally, OSU's Raekwon McMillan is a classic 2-down run stuffer - the issue is he can show pass coverage skills. If he can, another Rd 3-4 bargain.

At 3-4 DE, I'll repeat a guy BF2010 loves - Chris Wormley. More suited to be a 3-4 DE run stuffer, but really could be another late Day 2 / early Day 3 fit. He was thought to be a Rd 2 fit, but missing out on the Combine really hurt him, as the whole D class that showed up jumped leaps and bounds. KPassagnon is a guy everyone is in love with, but I don't think we should go there in Rd 2, where he likely goes, but if he's there at Rd 3, then it's an interesting case of floor vs. ceiling with those 2.


At NT, I think we'd wait until Day 3 at the earliest, and I think both Jaleel Johnson and Jarron Jones would be there. Jones' motor and motivation are a huge question mark, but if we wait until Day 3, I can't argue the pick.

I'll just re-iterate the prior position that we have to get one of the top 12 CB's - all of them get top 35 grades in most years. Getting one in Rd 2-3 is just an insane value we can't afford to let go. The same goes for top 6-7 TE - we might be able to use our 3.101 comp pick to get our TE, though - I don't think 1.20 for TE is the right value. I do think as much as we worry about OL, RB, that CB/TE have to be 2 of our top 4 picks - because we'd be getting top 35 overall players with likely 2 picks in the 50-100 range.


For 3rd WR, I don't think we should go any earlier than Rd 3 if we don't go 1.20 with an elite guy who falls (Corey Davis). John Ross I've covered before, elite speed, but man, that injury history and size concerns, let someone else gamble on a rd 1 pick. I doubt we go WR at 1.20. I had my heart set to pound the table for Zay Jones Rd 3 or Rd 3 comp, but his amazing Combine and Senior Bowl performances likely have him going well before then. If that's the case, then I'd wait until Day 3, and pick a WR with speed capabilities and ST help - and that's LA Tech's Carlos Henderson. Perfect slot skills, and a ST return ace, his size and small school background keeps his ADP low. Ideal Rd 4+ fit. I'd rather get Henderson Rd 4+ than Samuel Rd 2, given who we can get at Rd 2-3 & 3 comp.

With 10 picks, we don't have to use them all, so I think we'd leverage 2-3 picks to move up in 1-2 spots.

Obviously who we pick in Rd 1-2 will influence the above, but assuming we need ILB, 3rd WR, NT and 3-4 DE, I think we have fits in Rds 3 onwards. I think CB will be one of our first 3 picks, the value is just too great, and I think TE will be one of our 4. God, I really hope Elway can get away from the failed projects this year. So many chances to fill holes we need to get done cheaply to continue our run as a contender long-term, and after a lackluster FA, we need to hit on contributors. Fortunately, ILB & 3-4 DE there are options.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.


Last edited by Broncofan on Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:49 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 3311
PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
FWIW, I also get why the idea of drafting Mixon is so toxic to people. So don't mistake my posts as being gung-ho to take him. I just don't think it's a slam dunk DND for all of the reasons above.

But if we also all agreed, then we'd have nothing interesting to talk about until Draft Day. Cool


The thing with Mixon, that I outlined before, is one could argue he's the best RB in the draft. His physical skill set very much compares to Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson. He's a do it all back with prototype measurables. Physically/skill set wise he's a 1st round lock without his past history.

As I said, I don't want him, but he will get drafted, he'll be a bargain wherever he is selected and I 100% guarantee in 2-3 years if he has the success he is capable of having not many on that teams fan base will care as long as he keeps his nose clean.

I'm not saying it is right, but that's how it has and for the foreseeable future will always work. You can look at countless examples of this happening across pro sports. As long as you're producing NFL teams and their fans are incredibly forgiving.


That's the rub for sure. If he was a marginal talent he'd be a DND because the headache wouldn't be worth it. That's what happened to Ray Rice - not just what happened, but he was at the end of his career. The 2 together spelled his doom.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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BroncoBruin


Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, the talent that's going to be available at our second pick this year is nuts. Elway has GOT to stop monkeying around with his seconds. Those picks are too important to reach on projects.
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We have to keep in mind that Rob Bironas is dead, but might be an upgrade over McMannus.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncoBruin wrote:
Yeah, the talent that's going to be available at our second pick this year is nuts. Elway has GOT to stop monkeying around with his seconds. Those picks are too important to reach on projects.


I count 70+ guys with normal top 50 grades (7+ guys, solid starter floor with above-average ceilings)... it's possible we could find 4 guys who really could be starter level for 2018 in our top 101.

On that note - Jets didn't go Cutler, they went Josh McCown for a stopgap QB. Sounds like they are going to go Trubinsky at 1.6. That's good news for us, one more guy who falls closer to us for 1.20 and 2.51. I doubt 4 QB's go in Rd 1 like some mocks are going, but the more QB's that go, the better talent that falls to us for 1.20 and 2.51. And yeah, this is not the year to reach for some developmental guy. Hopefully Elway's new coaching staff and overhauled scouting staff will talk him out of that line of thinking this year.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally, if we don't spend a top pick on the OL (day 1 starter) I'd just as soon we wait until day 3 and pick up a long term project with incredible physical and mental gifts. Coach 'em up.

Our OL is already packed with mid-round picks fighting for one or two jobs. Why add another?
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broncos67


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, if we don't draft an LT I won't be too cut up about it and I don't think Broncos fans should be either, although many will. I view this upcoming season as one where we need to find our footing with a new coach and new scheme. Reaching for an LT for the hell of it in a draft where the talent is comparably weak is a bad idea. Again, it's how bad team operate.

I agree with AK. I'd rather draft and develop a project in this draft and go for the true impact players where we can. This draft absolutely needs to be a homerun.

To that end, I would point out that Vance Joseph saw the value of having a workhorse back in Jay Ajayi. We 100% don't have a RB like that on our roster currently. If Anderson gets hurt again, he's as good as gone next year with his contract situation. Would be wise to find a bellcow.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
Honestly, if we don't draft an LT I won't be too cut up about it and I don't think Broncos fans should be either, although many will. I view this upcoming season as one where we need to find our footing with a new coach and new scheme. Reaching for an LT for the hell of it in a draft where the talent is comparably weak is a bad idea. Again, it's how bad team operate.

I agree with AK. I'd rather draft and develop a project in this draft and go for the true impact players where we can. This draft absolutely needs to be a homerun.

To that end, I would point out that Vance Joseph saw the value of having a workhorse back in Jay Ajayi. We 100% don't have a RB like that on our roster currently. If Anderson gets hurt again, he's as good as gone next year with his contract situation. Would be wise to find a bellcow.


Agree we shouldn't reach in Rd 1. I'd only qualify the statement that if we go OL Rd 1, and it's Lamp, he's the one guy I have inside top 20. No LT potential, but as others mentioned, you can never have enough trench difference-makers. Pro Bowl G's are just as important as T's nowadays, and that's the ceiling, with Day 1 starter skillset as well (this year, might be at RT). I don't think any of the LT-capable OL are going to be BPA until later in Rd 1, so that's one of the few times I don't mind trading back (say, 1.20 and our 4.122 for someone's 1.28 and a late 2nd round pick/early third rounder) if we go there (but always want to stay in Rd 1 to get that 5th year option). If we stay at 1.20, Lamp is the one OL I can justify as overall BPA (I have him at 14 overall). Otherwise, we should be going in another direction.

Re: RB, while Ajayi became the bellcow, keep in mind he's more of a 2-down guy, MIA uses Drake and Damien Williams as their 3rd down / 2 minute drill guys. I think the model of the bellcow only applies to truly special RB's nowadays (Ajayi is a bruiser, don't get me wrong). Regardless, though, CJ can't be counted on beyond this year, and his style of play tends to burn out quickly. So we do need a RB. But I think the 2-headed monster that teams often favor is what we'll see. Mixon offers the tantalizing set of skills, but assuming we don't go RB in Rd 1 and don't go Mixon Rd 2 (if he's even there), guys like Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and even 2-down thumpers like Donta Foreman and Samuel Perrine should be there in Rds 3+ (Kamara could go up to Rd 2, but the slow times and lack of explosiveness the RB class put up as a whole at the Combine likely dings the non tier-1 RB class <Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey & Mixon - talent wise> into Rd 3-4 territory, or later, as in prior years).
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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broncos67


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm certainly not against Lamp, but I don't see us going after an OG in Round 1 after signing Leary. It seems quite clear to me that the FO felt that new coaching and scheme would benefit our current players rather than more new players. It could all be smoke, of course, but I think Round 3 and beyond is where we will see some OL picked this time around (LT excluded).

Also, while you are right about Ajayi, I think my bigger point is that a different, tougher RB is something Joseph is likely to desire, and frankly something this team needs. We need a nasty SOB running the football. Anderson is not that (also he gets injured often), Booker is also not that. Booker has a lot of value in that he conceivably can be a 3-down back, and as a backup, that's a great player to have. He's just indecisive and not especially physical.

Samaje Perine actually might be the perfect fit the more I think about it. He's a truck, and he doesn't have the fumbling problems Foreman does. Fournette, of course, would be the best overall option IMO. I still personally love Kareem Hunt. He's a do it all 3-down guy, doesn't fumble, reliable in all parts of the game. There's so much RB talent it's insane. We need to land one.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
I'm certainly not against Lamp, but I don't see us going after an OG in Round 1 after signing Leary. It seems quite clear to me that the FO felt that new coaching and scheme would benefit our current players rather than more new players. It could all be smoke, of course, but I think Round 3 and beyond is where we will see some OL picked this time around (LT excluded).

Also, while you are right about Ajayi, I think my bigger point is that a different, tougher RB is something Joseph is likely to desire, and frankly something this team needs. We need a nasty SOB running the football. Anderson is not that (also he gets injured often), Booker is also not that. Booker has a lot of value in that he conceivably can be a 3-down back, and as a backup, that's a great player to have. He's just indecisive and not especially physical.

Samaje Perine actually might be the perfect fit the more I think about it. He's a truck, and he doesn't have the fumbling problems Foreman does. Fournette, of course, would be the best overall option IMO. I still personally love Kareem Hunt. He's a do it all 3-down guy, doesn't fumble, reliable in all parts of the game. There's so much RB talent it's insane. We need to land one.


Agree with all you said, but just keep in mind Leary doesn't mean we're done at G long-term. Garcia & McGovern might work out, they might not. We hope so, but obviously still a big unknown. And Schofield is a UFA after this season, and not a guy we should re-invest in next year. Billy Turner is JAG. It might be RT for Lamp in 2017, but then in 2018-19 and beyond I'd see a Lamp/Leary/Paradis (with Garcia as our swing G/C) to give us a really solid interior OL. Having a bad LT is making us so conscious of the impact there, but having an elite G-C-G combo really is as crucial. I'm not throwing the towel in on Garcia, but Lamp is that good IMO - Pro Bowl Ceiling, and ready to help right away, plus versatile at G and RT. Don't see that combo too often.

Yeah, I hear you on RB. We need a thumper. Perine really fits that bill. The other guy is Jamal Williams from BYU. Both of them should be Day 3 picks. If we don't go with the elite RB tier, then I'd rather we wait until Rd 4+. CB/TE/ILB we can get really awesome difference-makers in Rds 2-3 and 3 comp. I'm more optimistic on Booker only because vision was his college strength, his indecision seemed more to me rookie wall - but even then if the indecision was just the rookie learning curve he's still at best is going to be a smooth, 1-cut guy, who's great as an all-around guy (again only if the indecision goes away) - but not at all the physical, bleed-the-clock guy and GL short-yardage guy. That's where a 2-down thumper would help - and the nice part there is those RB's are especially devalued. Day 3 is an easy fit.

I really love the idea of Gerald Henderson at slot WR and RB on Day 3 if we firm up the DE/TE/ILB/CB in the early rds. Henderson's a guy I'd take a round earlier than projected because of his ST return explosion. I know people are calling for guys like Samuel & Kamara in Rd 2 - but RB Rd 2 is such a bad value if it's not an elite weapon or true 3-down guy, but a gadget guy. RB shelf lives are so short. I'd rather get a bulldozer RB Day 3, and find our slot WR/PR/KR dynamo later, than spend a top 50 picks on those types. The guys we pass up at 2.51 are just so much more impactful...assuming Elway can get out of his own way, and not reach again for a project, of course. This year is just such a good year to be at 2.51. There, if it's DE, CB, ILB, TE, you'll likely be getting a guy with a 8+ ceiling/7 floor. That's so rare, that's usually where we've been forced to pick in the late 20's/30 range the past few years.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^

I don't disagree with you, but not a huge Henderson fan. I've read there's quite a few red flags with him, particularly his inability to grasp a playbook and essentially that La Tech often let their guys freelance.

I'm more of a Ryan Switzer/Taywan Taylor/Artavis Bryant/KD Cannon fan.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
^^^

I don't disagree with you, but not a huge Henderson fan. I've read there's quite a few red flags with him, particularly his inability to grasp a playbook and essentially that La Tech often let their guys freelance.

I'm more of a Ryan Switzer/Taywan Taylor/Artavis Bryant/KD Cannon fan.


That's entirely fair about La Tech in general.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are so many guys at 20 I would not complain about drafting. I'd be fine with Lamp, Bolles, or Ramcyck. I'd be thrilled with Reddick. I love Njoku as well. If one of the CBs were to be taken at 20 I wouldn't have a problem either. I really like Humphrey. Jabrill Peppers would also be interesting if the team knows how to use him. That isn't even taking into account that usually some guys fall that you don't expect to be there.

This draft is so deep and talented that Denver can get a damn good player and I don't care if it isn't at a position of major need.
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thebestever6


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want Reddick more than any other player he is the Swiss army knife of a defense. I just think a guy like that along with miller, Wolfe, Ray, and the rest of our defense would be tremendous.


who is this ryan switzer from noth carolina I read an article that said he Bolles, the ot from wisconsin, and mccaffrey were all high on yhe board for pick 20.
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