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2017 NFL Odds: Wins O/U For Each Team
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Thomas5737


Joined: 23 Dec 2009
Posts: 15231
Location: West Virginia Occupation: Browns LT
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RayReed2052 wrote:
Ahhhh, this time last year Jrry was arguing with me vehemently that the Ravens shouldn't have had a higher total than the Rams...good times.


Broncos, Titans and Cardinal should be making the argument this year. I don't think the Ravens get 9 wins, their defense should keep them in games and they have a great kicker to pull out some wins but I'd say 8-8 would be a really good year for them. I think 6 or seven looks more likely.
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RayReed2052


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PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thomas5737 wrote:
RayReed2052 wrote:
Ahhhh, this time last year Jrry was arguing with me vehemently that the Ravens shouldn't have had a higher total than the Rams...good times.


Broncos, Titans and Cardinal should be making the argument this year. I don't think the Ravens get 9 wins, their defense should keep them in games and they have a great kicker to pull out some wins but I'd say 8-8 would be a really good year for them. I think 6 or seven looks more likely.


6-7 wins with that schedule? I don't know...I think 8-11 range is more likely looking at their slate of games...you think we lose 10 of these games?

@CIN
CLE (london)
JAX
PIT
@OAK
CHI
@MIN
MIA
@TEN
BYE
@GB
HOU
DET
@PIT
@CLE
IND
CIN

I think we have >65% chance of winning
CLE
@CLE
CHI
MIA

Between a 45-65% chance of winning
PIT
CIN
IND
DET
HOU
@MIN

The only games I really see us having a <45% chance to win are
@PIT
@GB
@CIN
@OAK
@TEN

And I wouldn't be surprised to win at worst 1 of those ^ games.

If you go 4-2 in the 45-65% range and even 3-1 with an upset in the >65% games that's still 8 wins right there.

So 3-1 vs expected wins
4-2 vs the slightly favored/toss ups (5 of them are at home)
1-5 vs games you're expected to lose

They'd have to lose all of those expected games and go either 2-4 in that middle group or 3-3 and drop a heavily favored game to reach 10 losses. Not sure I see where those come from
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Non-Issue


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PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with the Rams o/u. And baby, I am taking the over.

THIS IS THE YEAR!!!!!!!!




























NO..... SERIOUSLY!!!!!!!!!!!
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Bolts223


Joined: 26 Oct 2014
Posts: 1602
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 3:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

New England Patriots 12.5 OVER
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6.0 OVER
New York Jets 5.0 UNDER

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 9.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 UNDER
Cleveland Browns 4.5 UNDER

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0 UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0 OVER
Denver Broncos 8.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 OVER

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0 UNDER
Houston Texans 8.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 8.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0 OVER


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 OVER
New York Giants 9.0 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0 OVER
Washington Redskins 7.5 OVER

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 8.0 UNDER
Chicago Bears 5.5 UNDER

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 OVER
Arizona Cardinals 8.0 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 5.5 UNDER
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 UNDER

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 OVER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.0 UNDER

Teams with too high O/U:

- Colts: Defense needs to prove itself first
- Raiders: Defense needs to improve, won a ton of close games in 2016, difficult schedule
- Ravens: Seriously they have nothing on offense. And while the defense will be very good, it isn't going to be THAT good.


Teams with too low O/U:
- Bills: They aren't that bad
- Chiefs: They definitely should be favorites to win the division
- Redskins: I think they should at least be at 8, if not 8.5
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canadaluvsdalla


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PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 4:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RayReed2052 wrote:
Ahhhh, this time last year Jrry was arguing with me vehemently that the Ravens shouldn't have had a higher total than the Rams...good times.


I'd listen to Jrry 100% anything draft related but once he starts talking into the Rams he just goes delusional.

It's like watching a Jekyll and Hyde transformation.
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Thomas5737


Joined: 23 Dec 2009
Posts: 15231
Location: West Virginia Occupation: Browns LT
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RayReed2052 wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
RayReed2052 wrote:
Ahhhh, this time last year Jrry was arguing with me vehemently that the Ravens shouldn't have had a higher total than the Rams...good times.


Broncos, Titans and Cardinal should be making the argument this year. I don't think the Ravens get 9 wins, their defense should keep them in games and they have a great kicker to pull out some wins but I'd say 8-8 would be a really good year for them. I think 6 or seven looks more likely.


6-7 wins with that schedule? I don't know...I think 8-11 range is more likely looking at their slate of games...you think we lose 10 of these games?

@CIN
CLE (london)
JAX
PIT
@OAK
CHI
@MIN
MIA
@TEN
BYE
@GB
HOU
DET
@PIT
@CLE
IND
CIN

I think we have >65% chance of winning
CLE
@CLE
CHI
MIA

Between a 45-65% chance of winning
PIT
CIN
IND
DET
HOU
@MIN

The only games I really see us having a <45% chance to win are
@PIT
@GB
@CIN
@OAK
@TEN

And I wouldn't be surprised to win at worst 1 of those ^ games.

If you go 4-2 in the 45-65% range and even 3-1 with an upset in the >65% games that's still 8 wins right there.

So 3-1 vs expected wins
4-2 vs the slightly favored/toss ups (5 of them are at home)
1-5 vs games you're expected to lose

They'd have to lose all of those expected games and go either 2-4 in that middle group or 3-3 and drop a heavily favored game to reach 10 losses. Not sure I see where those come from


Current odds, which mean about as much as our opinions, have them favored to win 7. If they find some offense somehow they could win 10 but I just don't know where they find the offense.
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kyle21121


Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 10867
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3 Overs that jump out at me:

LA Chargers
Arizona
Buffalo

3 unders:

Indy
Philly
Tampa

Those are my picks and if I were to make bets I would go with those. Teams with an O/U above 10 scare me unless I think they are deeply flawed or I see Pitt is 10.5 I see them winning 10 or 11 games and that's too tough.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 7982
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bolts223 wrote:
New England Patriots 12.5 OVER
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6.0 OVER
New York Jets 5.0 UNDER

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 9.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 UNDER
Cleveland Browns 4.5 UNDER

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0 UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0 OVER
Denver Broncos 8.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 OVER

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0 UNDER
Houston Texans 8.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 8.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0 OVER


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 OVER
New York Giants 9.0 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0 OVER
Washington Redskins 7.5 OVER

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 8.0 UNDER
Chicago Bears 5.5 UNDER

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 OVER
Arizona Cardinals 8.0 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 5.5 UNDER
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 UNDER

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 OVER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.0 UNDER

Teams with too high O/U:

- Colts: Defense needs to prove itself first
- Raiders: Defense needs to improve, won a ton of close games in 2016, difficult schedule
- Ravens: Seriously they have nothing on offense. And while the defense will be very good, it isn't going to be THAT good.


Teams with too low O/U:
- Bills: They aren't that bad
- Chiefs: They definitely should be favorites to win the division
- Redskins: I think they should at least be at 8, if not 8.5


We added even more proven offensive talent and lost 1 starter, who was awful (malcolm smith). So... all signs point to regressing by 3 wins.
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game3525


Joined: 03 Oct 2009
Posts: 11020
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Bolts223 wrote:
New England Patriots 12.5 OVER
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6.0 OVER
New York Jets 5.0 UNDER

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 9.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 UNDER
Cleveland Browns 4.5 UNDER

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0 UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0 OVER
Denver Broncos 8.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 OVER

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0 UNDER
Houston Texans 8.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 8.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0 OVER


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 OVER
New York Giants 9.0 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0 OVER
Washington Redskins 7.5 OVER

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 8.0 UNDER
Chicago Bears 5.5 UNDER

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 OVER
Arizona Cardinals 8.0 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 5.5 UNDER
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 UNDER

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 OVER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.0 UNDER

Teams with too high O/U:

- Colts: Defense needs to prove itself first
- Raiders: Defense needs to improve, won a ton of close games in 2016, difficult schedule
- Ravens: Seriously they have nothing on offense. And while the defense will be very good, it isn't going to be THAT good.


Teams with too low O/U:
- Bills: They aren't that bad
- Chiefs: They definitely should be favorites to win the division
- Redskins: I think they should at least be at 8, if not 8.5


We added even more proven offensive talent and lost 1 starter, who was awful (malcolm smith). So... all signs point to regressing by 3 wins.


Well, FO's post-draft predictions has them going 9-7.......
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johndeere1707


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Posts: 7287
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 3:10 pm    Post subject: Re: 2017 NFL Odds: Wins O/U For Each Team Reply with quote

AFC East
New England Patriots 12.5- Under
Miami Dolphins 7.5- Over
Buffalo Bills 6.0- Even
New York Jets 5.0- Even

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5- Over
Baltimore Ravens 9.0- under
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5- Over
Cleveland Browns 4.5- Over

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0- Over
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0- Even
Denver Broncos 8.5- under
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5- under

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0- under
Houston Texans 8.5- under
Tennessee Titans 8.5- Over
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0- under


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5- Over
New York Giants 9.0- under
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0- under
Washington Redskins 7.5- Over

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0- Over
Minnesota Vikings 8.5- under
Detroit Lions 8.0- Even
Chicago Bears 5.5- under

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5- under
Arizona Cardinals 8.0- Over
Los Angeles Rams 5.5- under
San Francisco 49ers 4.5- under

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5
Carolina Panthers 8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
New Orleans Saints 8.0
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Jakuvious


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Posts: 15261
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Bolts223 wrote:
New England Patriots 12.5 OVER
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6.0 OVER
New York Jets 5.0 UNDER

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 9.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 UNDER
Cleveland Browns 4.5 UNDER

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0 UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0 OVER
Denver Broncos 8.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 OVER

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0 UNDER
Houston Texans 8.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 8.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0 OVER


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 OVER
New York Giants 9.0 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0 OVER
Washington Redskins 7.5 OVER

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 8.0 UNDER
Chicago Bears 5.5 UNDER

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 OVER
Arizona Cardinals 8.0 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 5.5 UNDER
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 UNDER

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 OVER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.0 UNDER

Teams with too high O/U:

- Colts: Defense needs to prove itself first
- Raiders: Defense needs to improve, won a ton of close games in 2016, difficult schedule
- Ravens: Seriously they have nothing on offense. And while the defense will be very good, it isn't going to be THAT good.


Teams with too low O/U:
- Bills: They aren't that bad
- Chiefs: They definitely should be favorites to win the division
- Redskins: I think they should at least be at 8, if not 8.5


We added even more proven offensive talent and lost 1 starter, who was awful (malcolm smith). So... all signs point to regressing by 3 wins.


It's more complicated than that, and I think you know that. He predicted over for the Chargers, so that alone could be a difference of 1 or 2 wins in his expectations for the Raiders next year, given that they swept the Chargers last year. Our division switches from the AFC South and NFC South to the AFC East and the NFC East. While the AFC East is not a deep division, the Raiders swept the AFC South last year, and that's unlikely to happen with the East just by virtue of New England being there. The NFC East is pretty clearly a harder draw than the NFC South, IMO.

The schedule is just one example (and he specifically mentioned that in his post), but there's plenty of reasons beyond on paper roster improvements or regression that can explain a team's performance changing. Oakland exceeded their expected W/L by 3.3 games. That's huge. If they think other teams in the division will fare better, that can swiftly alter a team's record. For instance, I think that KC at 9 wins for O/U is too low, given that we've won at least 9 for 4 straight years, but if there's a widespread belief out there that the AFC West outside of us will improve, that can justify that low O/U pretty quickly, given that we swept the West last year.

And keep in mind, not many teams have double digit wins here. It's mostly the long term safe bets (New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Seattle.) Dallas, Atlanta, and KC all had great years last year and don't have a double digit O/U, because that tends to require a lot of public confidence.
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Bolts223


Joined: 26 Oct 2014
Posts: 1602
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Bolts223 wrote:
New England Patriots 12.5 OVER
Miami Dolphins 7.5 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6.0 OVER
New York Jets 5.0 UNDER

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 9.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 UNDER
Cleveland Browns 4.5 UNDER

AFC West
Oakland Raiders 10.0 UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0 OVER
Denver Broncos 8.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 OVER

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 9.0 UNDER
Houston Texans 8.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 8.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.0 OVER


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 OVER
New York Giants 9.0 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.0 OVER
Washington Redskins 7.5 OVER

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.0 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 8.0 UNDER
Chicago Bears 5.5 UNDER

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 OVER
Arizona Cardinals 8.0 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 5.5 UNDER
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 UNDER

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 OVER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.0 UNDER

Teams with too high O/U:

- Colts: Defense needs to prove itself first
- Raiders: Defense needs to improve, won a ton of close games in 2016, difficult schedule
- Ravens: Seriously they have nothing on offense. And while the defense will be very good, it isn't going to be THAT good.


Teams with too low O/U:
- Bills: They aren't that bad
- Chiefs: They definitely should be favorites to win the division
- Redskins: I think they should at least be at 8, if not 8.5


We added even more proven offensive talent and lost 1 starter, who was awful (malcolm smith). So... all signs point to regressing by 3 wins.


I'm not saying that they won't be a better team this year, but I don't think the Raiders last year were anywhere near as good at the 12-4 record would suggest as they were 9-2 in one score games last year. That isn't sustainable from one season to the next. (If you want a perfect example, look at the 2015 vs 2016 Broncos) And is it really a given that Carr plays at the same MVP level that he did last year? I happen to think Carr is for real, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was slightly worse next season. They could go 10-6 and be a better team than they were last year.

Anyways, giving the Raiders an Over/Under of 10 when they've had one winning season since the Iraq War and they have one of the most difficult schedules in football just seems silly to me. The only teams deserving of such a high O/U are teams that have been consistently winning that many games for several seasons now. I think they go 9-7 or 10-6.
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wackywabbit


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Posts: 11935
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thomas5737 wrote:
I don't think the Ravens get 9 wins, their defense should keep them in games and they have a great kicker to pull out some wins but I'd say 8-8 would be a really good year for them. I think 6 or seven looks more likely.

Current odds, which mean about as much as our opinions, have them favored to win 7. If they find some offense somehow they could win 10 but I just don't know where they find the offense.




At WR, we have Mike Wallace, who turned out 1000 yards and showed he still has top speed and good hands and opposite him we got this freak who runs a 4.2x at 6'3 216. Perriman flashed last year and people are deep sleeping on his potential to make a big jump, with a healthy offseason and the confidence from just getting through 16 games. Neither of these guys have actually had an offseason with Flacco, who was recovering from his knee well into the season from how he looked on the field. The three of them working together, with Pitta (who also surprised by playing 16 games and putting up 700 yards) leading a deep TE group, isn't as hopeless at some make it sound.

The Ravens not having offensive playmakers story has really taken off this year, but there's more to be excited about in this group than in literally most seasons we've had as a franchise. Definitely most seasons with Flacco at QB. Flacco can turn out an average offense and that's all we really need from that side of the ball. IF we can get average offense + top 5 defense + GOAT kicker => we can break double digit wins.
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FourThreeMafia


Joined: 28 Sep 2006
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Location: East of Sixburgh
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
I don't think the Ravens get 9 wins, their defense should keep them in games and they have a great kicker to pull out some wins but I'd say 8-8 would be a really good year for them. I think 6 or seven looks more likely.

Current odds, which mean about as much as our opinions, have them favored to win 7. If they find some offense somehow they could win 10 but I just don't know where they find the offense.




At WR, we have Mike Wallace, who turned out 1000 yards and showed he still has top speed and good hands and opposite him we got this freak who runs a 4.2x at 6'3 216. Perriman flashed last year and people are deep sleeping on his potential to make a big jump, with a healthy offseason and the confidence from just getting through 16 games. Neither of these guys have actually had an offseason with Flacco, who was recovering from his knee well into the season from how he looked on the field. The three of them working together, with Pitta (who also surprised by playing 16 games and putting up 700 yards) leading a deep TE group, isn't as hopeless at some make it sound.

The Ravens not having offensive playmakers story has really taken off this year, but there's more to be excited about in this group than in literally most seasons we've had as a franchise. Definitely most seasons with Flacco at QB. Flacco can turn out an average offense and that's all we really need from that side of the ball. IF we can get average offense + top 5 defense + GOAT kicker => we can break double digit wins.


Isnt Perriman in his late 50s? Laughing

I never sleep on the Ravens. They werent bad in 2016 and should be better this year. I see the AFC North being a 3 way race again, and the two that dont win the division being right there for a wildcard.....barring injuries of course.
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PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For as long as Joe Flacco is their quarterback, the Ravens will impossible to predict.
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