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babyatemydingo


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:29 pm    Post subject: The Theory of Kelly-tivity Reply with quote

In summation, "When in doubt ... hedge."
Let me explain.

Virtually every media outlet has someone asking, "What is Chip Kelly doing? What is his plan?"
In an attempt to figure that out myself, I've come to the following conclusions:

First, I have to offer the caveat that you can't go by what he says.
Everything he says has a certain degree of vagueness to it.
For example: “Marcus is the best quarterback in the draft,” Kelly said. “But we will never mortgage our future to go all the way to get someone like that.”
What does even that mean?
Kelly could trade two first round picks and declare, "I don't feel like we've mortgaged anything. The QB position is so important ....."
So, let's go there first.

I mean, Marcus Mariota is still the elephant in the room, despite the fact that a lot of people have made up their mind that he will or won't be the Eagles QB.
Frankly, I don't think Kelly even knows at this point.

It appears he should be a good QB, even better in Kelly's "system."
In fact, there is no one more suited at the helm, except maybe Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers.
And what would the Eagles have to give up to get one of them?
Maybe you could include Colin Kaepernick in that group, but there have already been rumors of inquiry into his availability to no avail.
I wonder who did that?
So, Mariota it is ..... or isn't.

Kelly is far too astute to just think he can will Mariota to himself in the draft.
Mariota could still be drafted first or second overall.
The Eagles simply don't have the firepower to go up there and get him.
There could also be another team lying in wait to go up and get him.
It is that time of year.
Teams don't issue press releases with wish lists and often disguise their intentions.
The Eagles' list, however, is a bit more transparent.
That doesn't mean they will get what they want.
It doesn't mean they won't, either.

I suspect a number of teams will come to the Eagles with exorbitant requests for their pick so the Eagles can get Mariota.
Unless Kelly can spin one of those offers into "not mortgaging the future" in his own mind, they'll probably be rejected.
The man is not an idiot.

But, there exist a multitude of scenarios where the Eagles could acquire Mariota.
Kelly and the Eagles just have to be prepared and willing to pull the trigger.
They also have to be prepared if he's not there or the cost is just too high.

It has become known that Mychal Kendricks is tradeable.
I think the Eagles' reluctance to release DeMeco Ryans validates that.
Evan Mathis, too, is rumored to be trade bait.
Package either, neither or both of them and some picks and "voila!" Kelly gets his guy.
I am not going to enumerate every possible scenario, but say said QB is passed on by the first three likely suitors, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and New York.
I mean, it has already been rumored that one team is married to another QB in the draft and another doesn't think he fits them.
That could all be false, but it could be true as well.
We don't know for certain what other teams are going to do just yet.
Neither does Kelly, and he is aware of that.

So, what happens if the Eagles get Mariota?
They just traded for Sam Bradford.
So what?
Bradford has one year left on his deal.
He could play 2015 as the starting QB while Mariota gets up to NFL speed.
Then POOF! he's gone.
Remember, Bradford is on the books for nearly $13M this year ... and this year only.
The Eagles could certainly use that money back for contract extensions and free agents, not to mention a likely compensatory pick.
He could also be extended and traded if he can stay healthy.
It all makes sense when you think about it.

If the Eagles can't get Mariota into the fold, they still have a viable team.
Bradford is the starting QB with Mark Sanchez behind him.

I find the Eagles meeting with Tim Tebow quite interesting.
Yes, he's part of the equation.
If the Eagles acquire Mariota, Tebow is out for now.
Bradford - Sanchez - Mariota is the depth chart for 2015.
There is no room for Tebow.
But, come 2016 could you see Mariota - Sanchez - Tebow?
Or even Mariota - Tebow - Sanchez, at which point Sanchez would be on the trade block?

If the Eagles don't acquire Mariota you could see Bradford - Sanchez - Tebow this year.
It all becomes a convoluted mess.
But, hedging your bet in several directions always is.
If there's one thing that can be said about Kelly it is that he is flexible.
Hopefully, he's adequately prepared as well.

I say that he's flexible because of what transpired at RB.
First, the Eagle traded LeSean McCoy away for a linebacker, albeit a Pro Bowl LB in Kiko Alonso.
McCoy had a hefty contract and Alonso did not.
Everyone anointed the Buffalo Bills the winners of the trade until they thought about it.
Now it about 50/50.
Obviously, Kelly thought about it first.

However, there is no way you could convince me that the Eagles planned on getting DeMarco Murray when they signed Ryan Mathews.
No way.
The Murray situation presented itself after the offer to Mathews was made.
From a credibility perspective, the Eagles could not renege on the Mathews deal.
So, Kelly had a decision to make with Murray.
Would he push all-in at RB, spending nearly 10% of his cap space at the position?
Sure, why not?
At the very least, he forces the Cowboys hand by taking their premier offensive weapon making RB both a priority and an uncertainty.
McCoy has been replaced by another RB of approximate value AND a starting LB.
He clearly calculated the expected utility of that move and changed his strategy on the fly.
Plus, he knows that nothing is forever, not even contracts.

The downside to keeping so many irons in the fire is that even "Plan B" doesn't always come to fruition.
I doubt the Eagles wanted to lose Jeremy Maclin to the Chiefs.
However, unforeseen circumstances like that occur all of the time.
Given the chance to do it over, would the Eagles have placed the franchise tag on him?
Maybe, as it would have bought the Eagles one season at the position.
They will likely say "no" if asked, but again, you can't always go by what is said.
Now the Eagles are stuck at WR with too little cap space and too few options to remedy the situation in free agency.
Nothing represents just how "stuck" the Eagles are like Riley Cooper.
Even cutting Cooper would cost more than keeping him.

They could always use a first round draft pick on a receiver to fill the void.
But, that may seriously impair their ability to use that pick to acquire Mariota.
In fact, that pick may be long gone by the time it rolls around.
Also, there are no guarantees with draft picks, particularly at WR, despite recent league-wide successes.

There are no guarantees in free agency, either, although you stand a better chance with a veteran than a rookie.
But, look at recent history.
Brent Grimes, Keenan Lewis, Greg Toler, Rashean Mathis and Sean Smith were all available at CB in 2013.
The Eagles went with Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams.
How did that work out?

This year they added Byron Maxwell.
Admittedly, they overpaid for him.
But, he was the best payer for them available at a position where they were in dire need.
The Eagles could simply not afford to repeat 2013 and sign the equivalent of Fletcher and Williams again.
Sometimes you force your own hand.

They also signed James Casey, Patrick Chung, Isaac Sopoaga and Jason Phillips.
Yuck.
To the Eagles' credit, they've brought in Connor Barwin, Mark Sanchez, Brandon Bair, Malcolm Jenkins and traded for Darren Sproles and Alonso as well.
But, the Eagles have exhausted most of their spending money and are now on the cheap.
They've painted themselves into a corner with the Maxwell and Murray signings.
There are still holes to fill at guard, safety, wide receiver and maybe cornerback.
Not all of those can be filled through the draft, particularly if they use picks to move up or trade players, effectively creating new holes to fill.

Furthermore, Kelly's draft performance to date is still under evaluation.
He's nabbed two starters, Bennie Logan and Lane Johnson, in two drafts, both in 2013.
That doesn't mean that all of the rest of the players were busts.
Quite possibly, some of them will develop into starters or at least significant contributors.
Some, Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews, seemed poised to do so.
But, there is also no guarantee that the Eagles will even get one starter in the upcoming draft.
After all, they are picking 20th and a potential Mariota trade looms over the process.

Maybe there are players on the roster who are ready to step up and make significant contributions.
Maybe not.
But, is anyone comfortable with the notion that the Eagles will be relying on some combination of Travis Long, Marcus Smith, Earl Wolff, Jaylen Watkins, Ed Reynolds, Matt Tobin, Allen Barbre and Josh Huff to become viable starters or even contributors?
If there's one thing working in Kelly's favor throughout this is that every team has its question marks.
There is no perfect squad out there.

It appears, though, that Kelly has a plan.
That plan is to keep as many options open and be flexible, not being afraid to make radical changes at a moments notice, even if the gains are nominal.
There is an ideal in his mind and then there is an alternative and another and so on.

Honestly, a lot of what he is doing isn't all that different from the rest of the league.
Kelly is just uber-active in his willingness to make changes in comparison to others.
It is not what Eagle fans are used to seeing after over a dozen years of a steady, predictable Andy Reid and appears to be causing a lot of worry.
And it should, as with every move comes a level of risk.
Sooner or later, you make a wrong move and have no back-up in place, right?
I mean, can anyone hedge sufficiently for all of the contingencies required when wholesale changes become commonplace?
Apparently, Kelly thinks he can.


The question remains, "Will it work?"
The answer is "Maybe."

I have my doubts.
That's why I'm hedging.
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Jeezla


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like waffle fries.
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Phire


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to respond to a few select quotes.
Quote:
So, what happens if the Eagles get Mariota?
They just traded for Sam Bradford.
So what?
Bradford has one year left on his deal.
He could play 2015 as the starting QB while Mariota gets up to NFL speed.
Then POOF! he's gone.

I don't see this situation as "so what".
We gave up next year's second round pick. This isn't a situation where we picked up Bradford off the street for nothing, and so him leaving after a year would just mean that... he's gone.

Our second round pick is gone too. We've turned second round picks into DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Mychal Kendricks, and Jordan Matthews; meaning it's not a throw-away draft pick by any stretch of the imagination.

If Bradford is gone after a year I'd be pretty upset.
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Phire


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The man is not an idiot.
Quote:
However, there is no way you could convince me that the Eagles planned on getting DeMarco Murray when they signed Ryan Mathews.

I'm not saying Chip is an idiot. He's not.
But I think we've already seen him outsmart himself many times already. We're going to continue to see him outsmart himself in the future.

I agree with you on Murray. I don't think he was ever part of any plan. From what we know, Chip wanted Gore, then Mathews. Murray came into the picture through a last-minute phone conversation.

This begs the question. Is Chip doing his due diligence? Is there really a plan?
It just feels like Chip gets tunnel vision and he doesn't ask around enough. Did we ask around enough for Jackson before we cut him? Did we really ask around enough for the McCoy trade?

I say this because Murray was quite obviously the best RB on the market. But we were ready to offer Gore and Mathews a contract before we even spoke to Murray... who just happened to really want to be here.

Again, I'm not saying Chip is an idiot because of this. And I won't purport to be privy to what goes on behind closed doors. But from what we do know, and from the circumstantial evidence, I think there's a credible possibility that Chip gets an idea in mind and just sort of becomes a torpedo.
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Jeezla


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phire wrote:
Quote:
The man is not an idiot.
Quote:
However, there is no way you could convince me that the Eagles planned on getting DeMarco Murray when they signed Ryan Mathews.

I'm not saying Chip is an idiot. He's not.
But I think we've already seen him outsmart himself many times already. We're going to continue to see him outsmart himself in the future.

I agree with you on Murray. I don't think he was ever part of any plan. From what we know, Chip wanted Gore, then Mathews. Murray came into the picture through a last-minute phone conversation.

This begs the question. Is Chip doing his due diligence? Is there really a plan?
It just feels like Chip gets tunnel vision and he doesn't ask around enough. Did we ask around enough for Jackson before we cut him? Did we really ask around enough for the McCoy trade?

I say this because Murray was quite obviously the best RB on the market. But we were ready to offer Gore and Mathews a contract before we even spoke to Murray... who just happened to really want to be here.

Again, I'm not saying Chip is an idiot because of this. And I won't purport to be privy to what goes on behind closed doors. But from what we do know, and from the circumstantial evidence, I think there's a credible possibility that Chip gets an idea in mind and just sort of becomes a torpedo.


Chip is an idiot savant.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phire wrote:
I'm going to respond to a few select quotes.
Quote:
So, what happens if the Eagles get Mariota?
They just traded for Sam Bradford.
So what?
Bradford has one year left on his deal.
He could play 2015 as the starting QB while Mariota gets up to NFL speed.
Then POOF! he's gone.

I don't see this situation as "so what".
We gave up next year's second round pick. This isn't a situation where we picked up Bradford off the street for nothing, and so him leaving after a year would just mean that... he's gone.

Our second round pick is gone too. We've turned second round picks into DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Mychal Kendricks, and Jordan Matthews; meaning it's not a throw-away draft pick by any stretch of the imagination.

If Bradford is gone after a year I'd be pretty upset.


What he turned Foles and a 2nd into Sam being traded for #19 overall which is a 1st? Does that change your opinion of the trade? It does for me. Fact is we have 40 more days until we see how this plan unfolds entirely.
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Phire


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nabbs4u wrote:
Phire wrote:
I'm going to respond to a few select quotes.
Quote:
So, what happens if the Eagles get Mariota?
They just traded for Sam Bradford.
So what?
Bradford has one year left on his deal.
He could play 2015 as the starting QB while Mariota gets up to NFL speed.
Then POOF! he's gone.

I don't see this situation as "so what".
We gave up next year's second round pick. This isn't a situation where we picked up Bradford off the street for nothing, and so him leaving after a year would just mean that... he's gone.
Our second round pick is gone too. We've turned second round picks into DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Mychal Kendricks, and Jordan Matthews; meaning it's not a throw-away draft pick by any stretch of the imagination.

If Bradford is gone after a year I'd be pretty upset.


What he turned Foles and a 2nd into Sam being traded for #19 overall which is a 1st? Does that change your opinion of the trade? It does for me. Fact is we have 40 more days until we see how this plan unfolds entirely.

I'm not talking about the value. I'm talking about Dingo's hypothetical outcome.
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babyatemydingo


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phire wrote:
Nabbs4u wrote:
Phire wrote:
I'm going to respond to a few select quotes.
Quote:
So, what happens if the Eagles get Mariota?
They just traded for Sam Bradford.
So what?
Bradford has one year left on his deal.
He could play 2015 as the starting QB while Mariota gets up to NFL speed.
Then POOF! he's gone.

I don't see this situation as "so what".
We gave up next year's second round pick. This isn't a situation where we picked up Bradford off the street for nothing, and so him leaving after a year would just mean that... he's gone.
Our second round pick is gone too. We've turned second round picks into DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Mychal Kendricks, and Jordan Matthews; meaning it's not a throw-away draft pick by any stretch of the imagination.

If Bradford is gone after a year I'd be pretty upset.


What he turned Foles and a 2nd into Sam being traded for #19 overall which is a 1st? Does that change your opinion of the trade? It does for me. Fact is we have 40 more days until we see how this plan unfolds entirely.

I'm not talking about the value. I'm talking about Dingo's hypothetical outcome.


All of the Eagles 2nd round picks in last 10 years:

Reggie Brown
Matt McCoy
Winston Justice
Kevin Kolb
Victor Abiamiri
Trevor Laws
DeSean Jackson
LeSean McCoy
Nate Allen
Jaiquawn Jarrett
Mychal Kendricks
Vinny Curry
Zach Ertz
Jordan Matthews

It is a mixed bag.
You can't just count the winners.
That being said, the pick does have value, particularly if the Eagles stink out the joint next season.
It just isn't the be-all-to-end-all and if you value it too much you may miss another opportunity.


You may have to factor that cost into the overall scheme.
If the Eagles land Mariota, chalk that pick up against his cost as the security provided if the Eagles hadn't landed him.
What is a hedge worth?


Also, is it better to extend Bradford and trade him, suffering cap consequences from his bonus or will it be better to not extend, let him walk, use all of his salary on the market and get a sandwich pick as compensation?

The answer to that question is that we don't know yet.
I mean, that is sort of the whole point.
Plan hypothetically and execute the best scenario when the time arrives.
That is the plan.
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ninjapirate


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think mariota has to be the end all be all at QB for chip. I mean bryce petty and brett hundley fit our offense just as well.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ninjapirate wrote:
I don't think mariota has to be the end all be all at QB for chip. I mean bryce petty and brett hundley fit our offense just as well.

I completely agree. Mariota is without a doubt Chip's ideal QB, but I think petty or hundley would fit just fine. I think it would be smart to take one of them as a backup plan to Bradford if the Mariota prophecy doesn't happen.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rememberthevet wrote:
ninjapirate wrote:
I don't think mariota has to be the end all be all at QB for chip. I mean bryce petty and brett hundley fit our offense just as well.

I completely agree. Mariota is without a doubt Chip's ideal QB, but I think petty or hundley would fit just fine. I think it would be smart to take one of them as a backup plan to Bradford if the Mariota prophecy doesn't happen.


I don't.
At least, I don't believe it is part of the contingency.

If the "prophecy" does not occur, I think the next step would be a return to a more traditional scheme.
ie. Draft WR - OG - SS/OT in the first three rounds.
Bradford - Sanchez - Tebow would be the QB situation and all of the hullabaloo surrounding Mariota would die down.

I don't think Kelly is trying to be unconventional for unconventionality's sake.
He's just trying to think and act outside the box when he believes it will help the team become what he wants it to be.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw the name Matt McCoy and I threw up in my mouth....
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EaglesPeteC wrote:
I saw the name Matt McCoy and I threw up in my mouth....


Feel the same about Kevin Kolb everyone I see his name. Whole draft is sickening!!!


Quote:
2007 2 36 Kevin Kolb QB 2013 Houston
2007 2 57 Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame
2007 3 87 Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska
2007 3 90 Tony Hunt RB Penn St.
2007 5 159 C.J. Gaddis DB Clemson
2007 5 162 Brent Celek TE Cincinnati
2007 6 201 Rashad Barksdale DB Albany
2007 7 236 Nate Ilaoa RB Hawaii

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nabbs4u wrote:
EaglesPeteC wrote:
I saw the name Matt McCoy and I threw up in my mouth....


Feel the same about Kevin Kolb everyone I see his name. Whole draft is sickening!!!

2007 2 36 Kevin Kolb QB 2013 Houston
2007 2 57 Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame
2007 3 87 Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska
2007 3 90 Tony Hunt RB Penn St.
2007 5 159 C.J. Gaddis DB Clemson
2007 5 162 Brent Celek TE Cincinnati
2007 6 201 Rashad Barksdale DB Albany
2007 7 236 Nate Ilaoa RB Hawaii

Why we took two RBs I will never know. Don't call Brent Celek sickening, though. He does not deserve to be in this draft class.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ryan8910101 wrote:
Nabbs4u wrote:
EaglesPeteC wrote:
I saw the name Matt McCoy and I threw up in my mouth....


Feel the same about Kevin Kolb everyone I see his name. Whole draft is sickening!!!

2007 2 36 Kevin Kolb QB 2013 Houston
2007 2 57 Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame
2007 3 87 Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska
2007 3 90 Tony Hunt RB Penn St.
2007 5 159 C.J. Gaddis DB Clemson
2007 5 162 Brent Celek TE Cincinnati
2007 6 201 Rashad Barksdale DB Albany
2007 7 236 Nate Ilaoa RB Hawaii

Why we took two RBs I will never know. Don't call Brent Celek sickening, though. He does not deserve to be in this draft class.


Celek does not salvage that train wreck of a draft.
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