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Fracdaddy14's Bowls Prediction/Guide Thread (Upd 10/20)

 
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fracdaddy14


Joined: 23 Feb 2012
Posts: 3400
Location: Northeastern PA
PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:04 pm    Post subject: Fracdaddy14's Bowls Prediction/Guide Thread (Upd 10/20) Reply with quote

These should be taken with some grain of salt right now as things change.

Playoffs
Sugar Bowl- 1/1 (New Orleans, LA)
- Seed #1 vs Seed #4

Florida St (13-0) vs Michigan St (12-1)



Rose Bowl- 1/1 (Pasadena, CA)
- Seed #2 vs Seed #3

Ole Miss (12-1) vs Oregon (12-1)




Bowl Committee
Cotton Bowl- 1/1 (Arlington, TX)
- At-Large vs At-Large

Mississippi St vs TCU



Fiesta Bowl- 12/31 (Glendale, AZ)
- At-Large vs At-Large

Notre Dame vs Arizona



Orange Bowl- 12/31 (Miami, FL)
- ACC #1 vs Big Ten/ SEC/ Notre Dame

Clemson vs Alabama



Peach Bowl- 12/31 (Atlanta, GA)
- At-Large vs At-Large

Auburn vs East Carolina (Group of 5 Pick)




Other Bowls
GoDaddy Bowl- 1/4 (Mobile, AL)
- MAC #1 vs Sun Belt #2

Akron vs South Alabama




Birmingham Bowl- 1/3 (Birmingham, AL)
- American #1-5 vs SEC #9

Memphis vs Kentucky




Alamo Bowl- 1/2 (San Antonio, TX)
- Big 12 #2 vs Pac-12 #2

Oklahoma vs UCLA



Armed Forces Bowl- 1/2 (Ft Worth, TX)
- Army/ Big Ten/ Big 12 #7 vs American #1-5

Maryland vs Houston



Cactus Bowl- 1/2 (Tempe, AZ)
Big 12 #6 vs Pac-12 #7

Oklahoma St vs Utah



TaxSlayer Bowl- 1/2 (Jacksonville, FL)
- ACC #3-6/ Big Ten #5-7 vs SEC #3-8

Iowa vs Florida




Citrus Bowl- 1/1 (Orlando, FL)
- Big Ten #2-4 vs SEC #2

Ohio St vs Georgia



Outback Bowl- 1/1 (Tampa, FL)
- Big Ten #2-4 vs SEC #3-8

Nebraska vs LSU




Belk Bowl- 12/30 (Charlotte, NC)
- ACC #3-6 vs SEC #3-8

Duke vs South Carolina



San Francisco Bowl- 12/30 (Santa Clara, CA)
- Big Ten #5-7 vs Pac-12 #4

Minnesota vs Stanford



Music City Bowl- 12/30 (Nashville, TN)
- ACC #3-6/ Big Ten #5-7 vs SEC #3-8

Virginia Tech vs Tennessee




Liberty Bowl- 12/29 (Memphis, TN)
Big 12 #5 vs SEC #3-8

West Virginia vs Missouri



Russell Athletic Bowl- 12/29 (Orlando, FL)
- ACC #2 vs Big 12 #3

Louisville vs Kansas St



Texas Bowl- 12/29 (Houston, TX)
- Big 12 #4 vs SEC #3-8

Baylor vs Texas A&M




Holiday Bowl- 12/27 (San Diego, CA)
- Big Ten #2-4 vs Pac-12 #3

Wisconsin vs USC



Independence Bowl- 12/27 (Shreveport, LA)
ACC #7-10 vs SEC #10 or CUSA

NC State vs UAB



Military Bowl- 12/27 (Annapolis, MD)
- American #1-5 vs ACC #7-10

Temple vs Virginia



Pinstripe Bowl- 12/27 (Bronx, NY)
- ACC #3-6 vs Big Ten #5-7

Pittsburgh vs Penn St



Sun Bowl- 12/27 (El Paso, TX)
- ACC #3-6 vs Pac-12 #5

Georgia Tech vs Arizona St




Bitcoin Bowl- 12/26 (St Petersburg, FL)
- American #1-5 vs ACC #7-10

Central Florida vs Miami FL



Heart of Dallas Bowl- 12/26 (Dallas, TX)
- Big Ten/ Big 12 #7 vs CUSA #1-5

Northwestern vs UTSA



Quick Lane Bowl- 12/26 (Detroit, MI)
- ACC #7-10 vs Big Ten #8

Boston College vs Rutgers




Bahamas Bowl- 12/24 (Nassau, Bahamas)
CUSA #1-5 vs MAC #4-5

Marshall vs Toledo



Hawaii Bowl- 12/24 (Honolulu, HI)
-CUSA #1-5 vs MWC #2-7

Louisiana Tech vs Colorado St




Boca Raton Bowl- 12/23 (Boca Raton, FL)
- CUSA #1-5 vs MAC #4-5

Middle Tennessee vs Western Michigan



Poinsettia Bowl- 12/23 (San Diego, CA)
- Navy vs MWC #2-7

Navy vs San Diego St




Miami Beach Bowl- 12/22 (Miami, FL)
- BYU vs American #1-5

BYU vs Cincinnati




Camellia Bowl- 12/20 (Montgomery, AL)
- MAC #3 vs Sun Belt #3

Bowling Green vs LA-Monroe



Idaho Potato Bowl- 12/20 (Boise, ID)
- MAC #2 vs MWC #2-7

Northern Illinois vs Nevada



New Mexico Bowl- 12/20 (Albuquerque, NM)
- CUSA #1-5 vs MWC #2-7

Western Kentucky vs Utah St



New Orleans Bowl- 12/20 (New Orleans, LA)
- MWC #2-7 vs Sun Belt #1

Air Force vs Arkansas St



Las Vegas Bowl- 12/20 (Las Vegas, NV)
- MWC #1 vs Pac-12 #6

Boise St vs Washington



*Denotes Replacement Team for Tie-In



Playoff Committee

Florida St
Wins- Oklahoma St (Neutral Site), The Citadel, Clemson, at NC State, Wake Forest, at Syracuse, Notre Dame, ^at Louisville, ^Virginia, ^at Miami FL, ^Boston College, ^Florida, ^ACC Championship (presumably Duke)


Ole Miss
Wins- Boise St (Neutral Site), at Vanderbilt, LA-Lafayette, Memphis, Alabama, at Texas A&M, Tennessee, ^Auburn, ^Presyterian, ^Arkansas, ^Mississippi St, ^SEC Title Game (Presumably Georgia)
Loss- ^at LSU


Oregon
Wins- South Dakota, Michigan St, Wyoming, at Washington St, at UCLA, Washington, ^California (Neutral Site), ^Stanford, ^at Utah, ^Colorado, ^at Oregon St, ^Pac-12 Title Game (Presumably Arizona)
Loss- Arizona


Michigan St
Wins- Jacksonville St, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Nebraska, at Purdue, ^at Indiana, ^Michigan, ^Ohio St, ^at Maryland, ^Rutgers, ^at Penn St, Big Ten Title Game (Presumably Nebraska)
Loss- at Oregon



Other Contenders:

Notre Dame (11-1)
Wins- Rice, Michigan, Purdue (Neutral Site), Syracuse (Neutral Site), Stanford, North Carolina, ^Navy (Neutral Site), ^at Arizona St, ^Northwestern, ^Louisville, ^at USC
Loss- at Florida St


Baylor (10-2)
Wins- SMU, Northwestern St, at Buffalo, at Iowa St, at Texas, TCU, ^Kansas, ^Oklahoma St, ^Texas Tech (Neutral Site), ^Kansas St
Loss- at West Virginia, ^at Oklahoma


Mississippi St (10-2)
Wins- Southern Miss, UAB, at South Alabama, at LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, ^at Kentucky, ^Arkansas, ^UT Martin, ^Vanderbilt
Losses- ^at Alabama, ^at Ole Miss


Alabama (11-1)
Wins- West Virginia (Neutral Site), Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Florida, at Arkansas, Texas A&M, ^Tennessee, ^at LSU, ^Mississippi St, ^West Carolina, ^Auburn
Losses- at Ole Miss


Auburn (9-3)
Wins- Arkansas, San Jose St, at Kansas St, Louisiana Tech, LSU, ^South Carolina, ^Texas A&M, ^at Georgia, ^Samford
Losses- at Mississippi St, ^at Ole Miss, ^at Alabama


Arizona (10-2)
Wins- UNLV, at UTSA, Nevada, California, at Oregon, ^at Washington St, ^Colorado, ^Washington, ^at Utah, ^Arizona St
Losses- USC, ^at UCLA


TCU (11-1)
Wins- Samford, Minnesota, at SMU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, ^Texas Tech, ^at West Virginia, ^Kansas St, ^Kansas, ^at Texas, ^Iowa St
Losses- at Baylor


^Denotes Prediction



Conference Bowl Affiliations:
- Note this represents pick of teams for bowls, and may not be consistent with conference rankings. In cases where there is no defined hierarchy, Conferences will work with Bowl Committees to select teams.
*Denotes non-automatic tie-in


ACC
1- Orange Bowl (when not apart of semi-finals)

2- Russell Athletic Bowl

3-6- Belk Bowl
3-6- Music City Bowl/ TaxSlayer Bowl
3-6- Pinstripe Bowl
3-6- Sun Bowl

7-10- Bitcoin Bowl
7-10- Independence Bowl
7-10- Military Bowl
7-10- Quick Lane Bowl


American
1-5- Armed Forces Bowl
1-5- Birmingham Bowl
1-5- Bitcoin Bowl
1-5- Miami Beach Bowl
1-5- Military Bowl


Big 12
1- Sugar Bowl (when not apart of semi-finals)

2- Alamo Bowl
3- Russell Athletic Bowl
4- Texas Bowl
5- Liberty Bowl
6- Cactus Bowl
7- Heart of Dallas Bowl

*Armed Forces Bowl


Big Ten
1- Rose Bowl (when not apart of semi-finals)

2-4- Citrus Bowl
2-4- Holiday Bowl
2-4- Outback Bowl

5-7- Music City Bowl/ TaxSlayer Bowl
5-7- Pinstripe Bowl
5-7- San Francisco Bowl

8- Quick Lane Bowl

*Heart of Dallas Bowl
*Armed Forces Bowl


CUSA
1-5- Bahamas Bowl
1-5- Boca Raton Bowl
1-5- Hawaii Bowl
1-5- Heart of Dallas Bowl
1-5- New Mexico Bowl

*Independence Bowl


Independents
Army- Armed Forces Bowl
BYU- Miami Beach Bowl
Navy- Poinsettia Bowl
Notre Dame- All ACC Bowls except for Orange


MAC
1- GoDaddy Bowl
2- Idaho Potato Bowl
3- Camellia Bowl
4-5- Bahamas Bowl
4-5- Boca Raton Bowl


Mountain West
1- Las Vegas Bowl

2-7- Hawaii Bowl
2-7- Idaho Potato Bowl
2-7- New Mexico Bowl
2-7- New Orleans Bowl
2-7- Poinsettia Bowl


Pac-12
1- Rose Bowl (when not apart of semi-finals)
2- Alamo Bowl
3- Holiday Bowl
4- San Francisco Bowl
5- Sun Bowl
6- Las Vegas Bowl
7- Cactus Bowl


SEC
1- Sugar Bowl (when not apart of semi-finals)
*Orange Bowl can select non-Sugar, non-Playoff team

2- Citrus Bowl

3-8- Belk Bowl
3-8- Liberty Bowl
3-8- Music City Bowl
3-8- Outback Bowl
3-8- TaxSlayer Bowl
3-8- Texas Bowl

9- Birmingham Bowl
10- Independence Bowl


Sun Belt
1- New Orleans Bowl
2- GoDaddy Bowl
3- Camellia Bowl
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Last edited by fracdaddy14 on Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:42 pm; edited 12 times in total
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d_stanton2lions


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?
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fracdaddy14


Joined: 23 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

d_stanton2lions wrote:
I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?


Ya, right now I have Bama, Auburn and the Mississippi schools at 10-2 and the rest with at least 3 losses. I think the Playoff committee will take a SEC West school due to strength of schedule over a 1-loss other power conference team. Michigan St is hurt by already losing to Oregon, which would make them the only teams to play each other. Even if OK, Oregon, and MSU finish with only 1 loss and all the SEC schools have 2+, I have a hard time seeing no SEC teams making it.
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Raves


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

d_stanton2lions wrote:
I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?


That's kind of what I was thinking. A 1 loss B1G champ will get in over a 2 loss SEC champ. Number of losses do matter, sometimes even more so than who you lost to.
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gl81


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, if we do just miss, why not make it 4-0 against RichRod.
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d_stanton2lions


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raves wrote:
d_stanton2lions wrote:
I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?


That's kind of what I was thinking. A 1 loss B1G champ will get in over a 2 loss SEC champ. Number of losses do matter, sometimes even more so than who you lost to.


Also, when the loss occurs matters and historically has played a role in selections. If Alabama is losing that 2nd game later in the season it will be an even bigger red mark than just a loss. Whereas MSU lost the 2nd game of the season and would be winning out (in this situation)

I also have a hard time seeing Auburn/Ole Miss/FSU/Miss St and Alabama all having 2+ loses. I just don't see that happening. If any one those teams have just 1 loss they will make it over any two loss team
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DirtyDez


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gl81 wrote:
Well, if we do just miss, why not make it 4-0 against RichRod.


I would gladly accept a loss if we made the Fiesta Bowl.

#badfan
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Mich_fan20


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

d_stanton2lions wrote:
Raves wrote:
d_stanton2lions wrote:
I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?


That's kind of what I was thinking. A 1 loss B1G champ will get in over a 2 loss SEC champ. Number of losses do matter, sometimes even more so than who you lost to.


Also, when the loss occurs matters and historically has played a role in selections. If Alabama is losing that 2nd game later in the season it will be an even bigger red mark than just a loss. Whereas MSU lost the 2nd game of the season and would be winning out (in this situation)

I also have a hard time seeing Auburn/Ole Miss/FSU/Miss St and Alabama all having 2+ loses. I just don't see that happening. If any one those teams have just 1 loss they will make it over any two loss team


All the teams he could have picked not to lose another game, andhe chose Oklahoma... I trust most of those teams over OU.
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fracdaddy14


Joined: 23 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mich_fan20 wrote:
d_stanton2lions wrote:
Raves wrote:
d_stanton2lions wrote:
I have a hard time believing they'd take a 2-loss Alabama over a 1-loss power conference team. Also, are you assuming the rest of the SEC all has 2+ loses?


That's kind of what I was thinking. A 1 loss B1G champ will get in over a 2 loss SEC champ. Number of losses do matter, sometimes even more so than who you lost to.


Also, when the loss occurs matters and historically has played a role in selections. If Alabama is losing that 2nd game later in the season it will be an even bigger red mark than just a loss. Whereas MSU lost the 2nd game of the season and would be winning out (in this situation)

I also have a hard time seeing Auburn/Ole Miss/FSU/Miss St and Alabama all having 2+ loses. I just don't see that happening. If any one those teams have just 1 loss they will make it over any two loss team


All the teams he could have picked not to lose another game, andhe chose Oklahoma... I trust most of those teams over OU.



Oklahoma's remaining games are very favorable for them this year. I just don't see them losing again.

10/18- Kansas St in Norman
BYE
11/1- at Iowa St
11/8- Baylor in Norman
11/15- at Texas Tech
11/22- Kansas
BYE
12/6- Oklahoma St in Norman
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gohogs14


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh man hogville would be glorious if we ended up beating Petrino
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fracdaddy14


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

10/19 Changes

- Florida St replaces Notre Dame as Playoff #1 Seed and is expected to be 13-0

- Michigan St replaces Oklahoma as Playoff #4 Seed

- Notre Dame replaces Michigan St in the Fiesta Bowl

- Clemson replaces Florida St in the Orange Bowl

- TCU replaces Baylor in the Cotton Bowl

- General Bowl Realigning for Conferences based on results from last 2 weeks
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