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goose's guesses--2015 edition

 
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gooselovechild


Joined: 29 Mar 2007
Posts: 2627
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 12:31 pm    Post subject: goose's guesses--2015 edition Reply with quote

Let me preface this by stating that I do not believe that Ozzie will keep all of the picks currently owned, but projecting trades is nearly impossible, so I don't try. I also know that some players might be over or under valued, but I'm going with my gut as to where they might generally be available.

With that in mind, here are my annual guesses sure to go wrong. Enjoy, and please let me know what you think. Just remember, you have to kiss someone with that mouth Cool

Round 1: Jalen Collins**CB**LSU
Not very experienced as a starter, but he’s the whole size/speed package you look for at CB. Will have the luxury of not having to come in and start right away, but has a high ceiling and could ultimately be the best CB in this draft class.

Round 2: Sammie Coates**WR**Auburn
A little raw and doesn’t have the greatest hands in the world, but he has huge potential which, if reached, makes him a borderline #1 WR. At the very least, he is the deep threat to replace Torrey.

Round 3: Lorenzo Mauldin**DE/OLB**Louisville
Here’s your replacement for McPhee. Can get after the QB, but also solid against the run. Will have to work on dropping into coverage in odd fronts, but has enough athletic talent to play in different spots.

Round 4: Senquez Golson**CB**Mississippi
My favorite player in the draft with a great nose for the ball, but he’s probably limited to the slot because he’s only 5’9”. If he was 2 inches taller, he'd be a top 20 pick.

Round 4: Max Valles**DE/OLB**Virginia
An athletic freak more than a football player at this point, but this is a good spot to try to catch lightning in a bottle. Huge upside if he learns how to play the game to the level of his athleticism.

Round 4 (comp): Cameron Artis-Payne**RB**Auburn
Patient runner who gets to top speed quickly. Thickly built, but needs work in pass protection.

Round 5: Wes Saxton**TE**South Alabama
Athletic receiving TE to hedge against Pitta’s recovery and add depth at the position.

Round 5 (comp): Robert Myers**OL**Tennessee State
An OG prospect on the chance that both Yanda and Osemele move on next year.

Round 5 (comp): Quayshawne Buckley**DL**Idaho
Dominated against lower level competition. Destined for PS, but could be a diamond in the rough.

Round 6: Austin Hill**WR**Arizona
Big, physical WR with great hands. Was on his way to becoming a top prospect prior to an ACL tear two years ago.
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Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
Posts: 27193
Location: Parkville, MD
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Overall I'd be very disappointed with this draft. Too much "projection" for my liking in the first 2 rounds. Two extremely raw, boom or bust picks and that's simply not Ozzie's MO so early in the draft.
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gooselovechild


Joined: 29 Mar 2007
Posts: 2627
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
Overall I'd be very disappointed with this draft. Too much "projection" for my liking in the first 2 rounds. Two extremely raw, boom or bust picks and that's simply not Ozzie's MO so early in the draft.


I can agree with you to a point. But in this year's draft, more than any I can think of in recent years, a big majority of the players are projection types once you get to the middle of round 1.

It also isn't unprecedented for Ozzie to roll the dice on talent in the early rounds. Torrey Smith, Kelechi Osemele, and even Joe Flacco were all fairly raw when they were drafted, and they turned out ok.
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 8222
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gooselovechild wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
Overall I'd be very disappointed with this draft. Too much "projection" for my liking in the first 2 rounds. Two extremely raw, boom or bust picks and that's simply not Ozzie's MO so early in the draft.


I can agree with you to a point. But in this year's draft, more than any I can think of in recent years, a big majority of the players are projection types once you get to the middle of round 1.

It also isn't unprecedented for Ozzie to roll the dice on talent in the early rounds. Torrey Smith, Kelechi Osemele, and even Joe Flacco were all fairly raw when they were drafted, and they turned out ok.


I think the raw talent aspect thing is more relevant for Baltimore's first pick than anything else. Flacco somewhat falls under that category as an outlier but since it's a quarterback we're talking about a lot of stuff goes out the window. Oher, Kindle, Smith, Upshaw, Elam, and Mosley (everybody else since, not just first round picks but their first pick of the draft) have been fairly well-established college players.

With that said I wouldn't mind Collins in the first round although it might be a bit unlikely (even more so for him than a guy like Jaelen Strong who only has two years at the highest level). Johnson is higher on my list but he might be gone before the Ravens pick. If the choice at cornerback is between Peters and Collins I'd prefer the latter. Coates at 58 is fine. That's right around his value area and he definitely fills a need.

The rest of the draft is pretty solid. Adding a versatile pass-rusher as well as the athletic type we've all been wanting would be nice. Saxton is the the type of tight end I'm hoping they add. I'm still not a fan of the Ravens taking an offensive lineman outside of center at any pick since I don't believe more than three tackles or guards will make the active roster and hoping a 5th rounder makes it through waivers is risky. Which means the same goes for Buckley although there's even more competition along the defensive line.
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Sessy


Joined: 05 Dec 2011
Posts: 113
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you replace Collins with Peters (who I expect to be long gone) in the first, this is literally my ideal mock. I love all these guys and I think the value is correct for all of them.

It would be an interesting debate though if both Collins and Kevin Johnson are both there. Collins has more upside, but as mentioned isn't really the polished athlete we're used to seeing from Ravens first round picks. I'm high on Johnson personally, but the upside of having another tall, physical CB for if/when Jimmy Smith decides to take his talents elsewhere could be tough to pass up.

Like I said though, I'd love this draft. I'm particularly high on Mauldin, Saxton, Senquez, and Coats, with appropriate values on all of them.
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gooselovechild


Joined: 29 Mar 2007
Posts: 2627
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

coordinator0 wrote:
I think the raw talent aspect thing is more relevant for Baltimore's first pick than anything else. Flacco somewhat falls under that category as an outlier but since it's a quarterback we're talking about a lot of stuff goes out the window. Oher, Kindle, Smith, Upshaw, Elam, and Mosley (everybody else since, not just first round picks but their first pick of the draft) have been fairly well-established college players.


I understand what you're saying, and generally agree because I'm a person who usually values what I see and production over time in draft prospects above all else. And in a normal year, I probably wouldn't touch Collins in the 1st round, but this draft has a feel to it that I can't really remember in any draft prior.

If I had to explain the source of that feeling, it would probably be that there are so many prospects who have either a lack of experience, injury concerns, or visible red flags that teams at the back of the round will have to adapt their draft strategies accordingly in order to find players that will help them. It's also kind of an ordinary draft at most positions, with not much separating a 1st rounder from a 4th rounder beyond reputation and how individual teams stack their draft boards, so if there's an opportunity to get a guy that has potential despite one of the concerns, it mitigates the risk involved.

For sure, drafting Collins would be a risk, but its a calculated one I don't think the FO is afraid to make if they don't trade the pick. And like I said initially, he won't have to start immediately, so he'll have time to learn the nuances of the position that (hopefully) allow him to use his physical gifts to become one of the best at his position.
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 8222
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is a bad year for the quantity of prospects that should actually have first round grades. I'm still not betting on Baltimore deviating from their general path though. This draft actually reminds be a bit of the one a couple years ago where they took Elam at the end of the first round. Barring an unexpected value falling to them I think they'll go with that same beauty is in the eye of the beholder type of pick. That could definitely be a guy like Collins, and a cornerback generally isn't expected to make a big contribution right away anyways so like I said before I wouldn't have a problem with it. Although I'm kind of hoping it might mean a better chance that Devin Smith is the apple of their eye... Cool
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Crickett


Joined: 27 Nov 2004
Posts: 586
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like this draft because while I'm not sure some of the picks will fall to you, you don't have ridiculously unreasonable value, Jake Fisher is not your second round pick and no silly trades.
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