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Greg Zuerlein Is Not The Problem

 
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 61641
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 5:08 am    Post subject: Greg Zuerlein Is Not The Problem Reply with quote

This is a post I made on another forum responding to a poster who was pondering whether we'd give Shaun Suisham a shot if Pittsburgh releases him but it's also on point for the Greg debate:
Quote:
But I don't know if the Rams will be interested in Suisham. Fisher likes Kickers with big legs. Suisham doesn't have a big leg. His career long is 53 yards, he's only hit around 35% of his 50+ yard FGs over his career, and he's only attempted 17 FGs of 50+ yards over a career that has spanned over a decade. Zuerlein attempted 13 FGs of 50+ yards in his rookie season alone.

In fact, if you look at Suisham's career accuracy splits, they're nearly identical to Zuerlein's from every range except 50+ yards.(where Zuerlein is significantly better)

Basically, Zuerlein's stats seem bad because the Rams had him kick a ton of long FGs. Not to say that Zuerlein is incredibly accurate but I think he'd be considered a much better Kicker if he were on a team like New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, etc. for two reasons. He'd have much better numbers due to having a much higher percentage of "high percentage kicks" and he wouldn't have his confidence wrecked by his head coach trotting him out for long FG after long FG.

These may seem like excuses but I don't really think they are. The kicking game is much more mental than people believe. I don't think Zuerlein is the problem. I think the offense was the problem. Take Shaun Suisham's last 3 years in Pittsburgh. Suisham hit 91.6% of his FGs. If you apply Zuerlein's career averages, Zuerlein would have likely hit 87.5% of his FGs with the same splits.(10 under 30, 10 between 30-39, 10 between 40-49, and 2 over 50 per year on average) That's slightly worse but that doesn't account for the confidence boost that Zuerlein would get from kicking much more accurately which might have made a difference on one of the missed FGs. It also doesn't account for the fact that Zuerlein would still have his elite leg. So people would see a high accuracy percentage (87.5%) along with an elite leg and likely regard him as one of the game's best Kickers.

Basically, the point I'm making here is that I think our Kicker is better than he's given credit for and less of a problem than people believe he is. It's like criticizing a QB for having a low completion percentage when his team asks him to throw way more intermediate and deep passes than any other QB. We asked Zuerlein to make a ton of low percentage kicks while not giving him a lot of high percentage kicks to offset it.

And that's not even getting to the injury he was playing through which likely was a contributing factor in Greg's accuracy percentage in 2015 from 40-49 yards and 50+ yards being around 25% to 30% lower than his career average coming into the year.


Cliff Notes Version: The Rams have Greg attempt a lot of low percentage kicks and very few high percentage kicks in relation to the Kickers on the playoff teams. Greg would likely post accurate percentages in the upper-80s and low-90s on teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Arizona, etc. where the Kickers attempt a much higher proportion of high percentage kicks than low percentages kicks when compared to Greg.
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KingBishop wrote:
JammerHammer21 wrote:
Jarvis looked like a slug on and off the field.

Off the field? Like when he is grocery shopping, does he block the freezer aisle with his sluggish selection of which hungry man to buy?
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Tano


Joined: 24 Aug 2013
Posts: 344
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree.

And on the injury note - when I went to the Baltimore game, I watched Greg during the pregame activities and I got this weird feeling that something was wrong with Greg's leg.

He was still kicking 60 plus yards in the pregame warmups but I still felt something was wrong. I thought it might be my imagination but a couple weeks later we found out that Greg's leg was not 100%. I have a feeling that his leg started bothering him around the Minnesota game and didn't tell anyone.

However, I think Fisher had a feeling about Greg's leg as well and that is why he didn't let him kick that extra point.
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Ramsfan28


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PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 2:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Funny, I remember suisham getting cut from the redskins for missing a clutch kick... personally, I think the days of needing a big leg are dwindling , especially this year when we have learned the extra points are no longer gimmes. Give me a jeff Wilkins type of kicker any day of the week.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 61641
PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ramsfan28 wrote:
Funny, I remember suisham getting cut from the redskins for missing a clutch kick... personally, I think the days of needing a big leg are dwindling , especially this year when we have learned the extra points are no longer gimmes. Give me a jeff Wilkins type of kicker any day of the week.


Wilkins actually had a worse accuracy percentage over his first four years with the Rams than Zuerlein's.
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KingBishop wrote:
JammerHammer21 wrote:
Jarvis looked like a slug on and off the field.

Off the field? Like when he is grocery shopping, does he block the freezer aisle with his sluggish selection of which hungry man to buy?
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NVRamsFan


Joined: 22 Mar 2009
Posts: 4522
Location: Reno, NV
PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Ramsfan28 wrote:
Funny, I remember suisham getting cut from the redskins for missing a clutch kick... personally, I think the days of needing a big leg are dwindling , especially this year when we have learned the extra points are no longer gimmes. Give me a jeff Wilkins type of kicker any day of the week.


Wilkins actually had a worse accuracy percentage over his first four years with the Rams than Zuerlein's.


Silly Jrry, facts have no basis in football fandom.
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stl4life07


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3558
PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ramsfan28 wrote:
Funny, I remember suisham getting cut from the redskins for missing a clutch kick... personally, I think the days of needing a big leg are dwindling , especially this year when we have learned the extra points are no longer gimmes. Give me a jeff Wilkins type of kicker any day of the week.


Not on a Fisher coached team. A big legged kicker is very important because if the Rams get in FG range which might be 55yds then Fisher has that luxury to kick and try to get the 3pts rather than most teams. 3pts for the Rams is huge considering they aren't a high octane offense and have a stout defense. They will mostly be in low scoring close games so the value of a FG from anywhere across midfield is HUGE especially if it's a long FG that either drains the home team fans on the road or energizes the home team at home and gives the Rams that moment and distinct advantage every game on special teams from all aspects.
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btimsah


Joined: 01 Jul 2015
Posts: 138
PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zuerlein was 3 of 9 from 40 to 49 yards.

Forget the 50+ers (which he was also 3 of 9 on..)

The Rams are the last team who can afford a big legged kicker who can't hit long FG's
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Flounch


Joined: 12 Feb 2011
Posts: 567
PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. What makes Zuerlein special is his powerfull legs. That makes Fisher thinks that he can kick the long FG. So most of the time in the long field range, instead of punting, we are making Zuerlein kick and when he missed the kick that puts the defense in a tough situation.

Power without accuracy it's useless.

So either he can find accuracy and we let him kick the long FG, if not we have to call a punt. It's not like we have one of the best punter in the NFL.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 61641
PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

btimsah wrote:
Zuerlein was 3 of 9 from 40 to 49 yards.

Forget the 50+ers (which he was also 3 of 9 on..)

The Rams are the last team who can afford a big legged kicker who can't hit long FG's


No, he wasn't. Zuerlein was 5 of 8 from 40 to 49 yards. And two of his three misses were blocked.

Coming into 2015, Zuerlein was 17 of 19 from 40 to 49 yards. He was money from that range.
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KingBishop wrote:
JammerHammer21 wrote:
Jarvis looked like a slug on and off the field.

Off the field? Like when he is grocery shopping, does he block the freezer aisle with his sluggish selection of which hungry man to buy?
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Jachue Jones


Joined: 06 Feb 2014
Posts: 1365
PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 2:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't get nervous when we are kicking a FG within 48 yards. Guy is money. We put him in some pretty crappy positions which skew his percentages but he is a weapon. Having a guy who can potentially make a 65 yard FG with the game on the line, even if it is say 20%.... beats the hell out of a Hail Mary percentage.

People only remember the misses...
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Car_Ramrod


Joined: 23 Jan 2016
Posts: 769
Location: Los Angeles
PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Via Turfshow times:


Greg Zuerlein has hit 66.7% of FG's on grass vs. 86.2% in domes. That's almost a 20% difference. #LAColiseum

That's quite a big difference when it comes to playing surfaces. He is put in some crappy situations but that's still surprising to see imo.



https://mobile.twitter.com/TurfShowTimes/status/745817822593327104
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