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Ed Reed: The Best Ever?
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wwhickok


Joined: 27 Nov 2012
Posts: 13444
Location: Montgomery, PA aka Steeler Nation!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SiLo wrote:
wwhickok wrote:
SiLo wrote:
Polamalu might be the most overrated safety of all time.


We'll have to agree to disagree there.

Both Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu have had huge impacts for both of their respective teams for the duration of their career. However, in the last season and a half Troy has also struggled with health issues.


I don't think Ed Reed is the best ever but Troy is an overrated risk taker. Dawkins > Troy if were going to debate that type of safety.


We'll DEFINITELY have to agree to diagree on that.
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Bobikus


Joined: 07 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reed's probably the best "centerfielder" ever but imo Lott is still the GOAT at safety. Reed and Troy are part of the top 4 alongside Houston.

Also if anything Troy's underrated, not overrated around here.
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fullback40 wrote:
He's the greatest safety in the NFL ever because of the way the game is played nowadays.


It's tough to imagine the splash INT plays that some of the other greats like Lott would have had in this NFL pass happy league.



Reed is so clutch and is unquestionably the greatest safety centerfielder of all time...just not as dominant in the run game as others.


The problem with this analysis is that I don't think it takes into account the way the passing game itself has changed. Yes, there is more passing now than ever. The evolution of the passing game, though, has led to less interceptions being thrown with a higher premium being placed on controlling the ball/avoiding turnovers.

In 1981 (Lott's first year in the league)
609 INT's by 28 teams (normalized to 696 for 32 teams)
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1981/

In 1995 (year Lott announced his retirement)
512 INT's by 30 teams (normalized to 546 for 32 teams)
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1995/

In 2002 (Reed's first year in the league)
528 INT's by 32 teams
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2002/

In 2012
468 INT's by 32 teams
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/

If anything these numbers make Reed's totals more impressive.
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Bobikus


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ And that statistics gathering as well is far from sufficient since we're talking about a safety, and how safeties are used have changed a lot through the eras because back in those high INT eras safeties less often played centerfielder style roles in the way they have been playing that role far more often since the 90s when offenses like the WCO required safeties to crowd the box less often because those offenses weren't based on power running.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobikus wrote:
^ And that statistics gathering as well is far from sufficient since we're talking about a safety, and how safeties are used have changed a lot through the eras because back in those high INT eras safeties less often played centerfielder style roles in the way they have been playing that role far more often since the 90s when offenses like the WCO required safeties to crowd the box less often because those offenses weren't based on power running.


Do you deny that it's a better jump-off point for discussion than "people pass more now, so Ronnie Lott would have better numbers today." I never said it was exhaustive proof, but it does dispel the notion to some degree that a pass-happier league allows for more INT opportunities.
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Bobikus


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, assumptions like that shouldn't be made, although I don't think you could really assume the opposite based on the total number of lower interceptions in regard to any specific position going just off those league-wide numbers, since who gets those interceptions may change a lot based on the predominant types of defensive schemes played in that era.

My hunch is that Safeties are pretty similar or very slightly more likely to get INTs now, while the INT number drop-off affects CBs more sharply.

At a further look, the drop off as far as Safeties getting INTs goes starts to happen around 08 or so, with 02-03 being a bit of a jump over the surrounding years. INT rates haven't truly plummeted until the last 2 years though.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobikus wrote:
Yeah, assumptions like that shouldn't be made, although I don't think you could really assume the opposite based on the total number of lower interceptions in regard to any specific position going just off those league-wide numbers, since who gets those interceptions may change a lot based on the predominant types of defensive schemes played in that era.

My hunch is that Safeties are pretty similar or very slightly more likely to get INTs now, while the INT number drop-off affects CBs more sharply.

At a further look, the drop off as far as Safeties getting INTs goes starts to happen around 08 or so, with 02-03 being a bit of a jump over the surrounding years. INT rates haven't truly plummeted until the last 2 years though.


Fair enough. I don't really care either way, I don't know where Reed ranks in the heirarchy of great safeties, just that he's definitely up there. Moreso trying to dispel some creeping "common wisdom" about the eras, specifically that the pass-happy NFL today necessarily equates to more INT opportunities.
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Bobikus


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah I think my conclusion if anything is to not focus too much on era up until the last couple years since INTs went down but most safeties don't centerfield as much as Reed gets too (largely in part to how good he is in that role).

Looking at 11-12 and forward though will be interesting in judging players statistically since it's when this "golden age" for QBs has really started kicking in full gear.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, he is the GOAT.
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THESKINSFAN21


Joined: 14 Jul 2011
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Location: West Palm Beach
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steadypimpin wrote:
Sean Taylor is not an all time safety. People need to put aside his death and look at things realistically. People over glorify Taylor's legacy if you want to call it that after his death. Ask most Skins fans their best moment of Taylor and they'll talk about that hit he laid on the punter in the Pro Bowl.

No way lol. Definitely the blocked kick return to set us up for a game winninhg fg against Dallas with a second left or the two sideline to sideline picks against Favre. I think non redskins fans best memory is the PB hit.
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Hands of Iron


Joined: 09 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobikus wrote:
^ And that statistics gathering as well is far from sufficient since we're talking about a safety, and how safeties are used have changed a lot through the eras because back in those high INT eras safeties less often played centerfielder style roles in the way they have been playing that role far more often since the 90s when offenses like the WCO required safeties to crowd the box less often because those offenses weren't based on power running.


It may not necessarily mean he would've had a higher INT rate, but I'd say its sufficient enough to demonstrate that the opposite is nearly a complete falsehood. I know it's difficult to resist making excuses for greatness, but Reed would've flourished in any SB era time frame. He's certainly the greatest ball hawk of all-time, and while he was never particularly a strong safety - as if he isn't far beyond any frivolous positional designation: You can call him The Playmaker. Mr. Splash Play. The Greatest, etc. - there was a time in which he played far more in the box and brandished a much more physical style of play before injuries piled up, and still put his full range of skills on display.

2002: 80 TKL (67 Solo) - 3.5 STF - 12 PD - 5 INT - 1 SK
2003: 70 TKL (58 Solo) - 9.0 STF - 15 PD - 7 INT - 1 SK - 1 FF
2004: 78 TKL (64 Solo) - 4.5 STF - 17 PD - 9 INT - 2 SK - 3 FF
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RavensDefense3


Joined: 21 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel like he gets overshadowed by Ray Lewis, he's definitely the best safety I've seen play.
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BlaqOptic


Joined: 14 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

seminoles1 wrote:
amazingandre wrote:
ttitansfan4life wrote:
To bad the best safety ever died at such a young age. R.I.P. ST
I hate this garbage, I mean RIP to the guy, but he was not even the best S in the league when he passed.....quit putting him on a high pedestal because he wasn't this force that many thought he was
He was 9 games into the greatest season by a safety ever. He was a dominant force his last season. But I do agree with you guys about him not being close to the best ever.

The best safety of all-time is Ronnie Lott.


While his final season was great it was nowhere near greatest of all time. In fact, it doesn't negate that his previous season was arguably the worst season all time for a Safety.
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Ketchup on 7/24/14 wrote:
I would cut off my legs if Rodgers threw 20 interceptions.



Trust in the 4Bs: Ben, Bell, Blount and Brown!
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BlaqOptic


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
I'm biased but, Yup. He's got 8 picks in like 10 playoff games. That's ridiculously clutch. People shouldn't forget that he was a devastating hitter earlier in his career too.


And in the games he doesn't have an interception in he hasn't shown up at all.
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Ketchup on 7/24/14 wrote:
I would cut off my legs if Rodgers threw 20 interceptions.



Trust in the 4Bs: Ben, Bell, Blount and Brown!
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BlaqOptic


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, and call me a homer. Honestly don't care but I'll take Troy. He may not have been the ballhawk that Reed was but Troy also never spent most of his time as a FS until the 2007 season at which point he notched 2 seven interception seasons. While I acknowledge Reed was amazing as a SS pre-2005 I feel that Troy's overall play as a SS was better than Reed's amazig play as a traditional FS. Troy was better in Man, in the box, and against the run. Where as Ed is the best all time at any position ever in playing zone coverage. He's also the best all time at making a play after the turnover. Guess it's what do you prefer but I've never been keen on the interception. One of my more overrated stats. However, regardless of the luckiness of interceptions what is not lucky is returning all of those for TDs.
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Ketchup on 7/24/14 wrote:
I would cut off my legs if Rodgers threw 20 interceptions.



Trust in the 4Bs: Ben, Bell, Blount and Brown!
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