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Euphemism
Joined: 19 Aug 2011 Posts: 87 Location: Chicago / New York / LA
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 6:45 pm Post subject: Some random thoughts a few weeks before draft |
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I see very little value in taking a defensive end at #19 overall with this draft class. It may be the most important need, but the players that are going to be available at #19 are simply not worth it.
Nick Perry is an athletic dynamo, but leaves a lot to be desired. He actually reminds me a lot of Gaines Adams.
I've watched quite a bit of Mercilus as well and do not feel his value is in the top-20 of any draft.
This corner class is extremely strong. Gilmore and Janoris Jenkins are both incredibly skilled. I would roll the dice on one of these two rather than reaching on an end.
I think Jenkins & Gilmore are two of the most undervalued players in the draft right now. And a lot of that can be traced to some disturbing character concerns, but on the field at least you know you aren't likely to miss.
Michael Floyd is likely a pipe dream at this point. Bummer.
And the tackles like Jonathan Martin are very flawed in their own right.
A prospect that is really gaining steam is OG Amini Silatolu who I would love to nab in the second round. 6'4" 315 and very tenacious. I think he's an instant starter on which ever team takes him.
I also like Brandon Washington after Round 2 as a great developmental guard. He's raw, but at 320 lbs and his athleticism seems like a perfect guard for Tice to mold. |
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Euphemism
Joined: 19 Aug 2011 Posts: 87 Location: Chicago / New York / LA
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Adding to Silatolu - He has a lot of Mike Iupati to him. Silatolu played LT in college and probably doesn't have the toes to play LT in the NFL, but at worst case you have a starting guard who can swing to RT and handle his own. |
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DaMike
Joined: 21 Nov 2010 Posts: 3366
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Perry has much better bulk, strength and has a better motor then Adams. Adams was more explosive though. Adams busting doesnt mean Perry will. Perry is definitely worth our 1st round pick. |
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Euphemism
Joined: 19 Aug 2011 Posts: 87 Location: Chicago / New York / LA
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMike wrote: | | Perry has much better bulk, strength and has a better motor then Adams. Adams was more explosive though. Adams busting doesnt mean Perry will. Perry is definitely worth our 1st round pick. |
He only has one skill and is better suited in a 3-4. |
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Madmike90 
Joined: 25 Jan 2009 Posts: 18608 Location: Scotland
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Euphemism wrote: | | DaMike wrote: | | Perry has much better bulk, strength and has a better motor then Adams. Adams was more explosive though. Adams busting doesnt mean Perry will. Perry is definitely worth our 1st round pick. |
He only has one skill and is better suited in a 3-4. |
Perry showed at the combine that he isn’t a 3-4 OLB during the field drills…Perry is better going forward…IMO he is the 2nd best DE prospect in this year’s draft…Perry has a solid floor right now but his ceiling is very high. |
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ChicagoAl
Joined: 10 Jan 2008 Posts: 7096
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Some random thoughts a few weeks before draft |
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| Euphemism wrote: | I see very little value in taking a defensive end at #19 overall with this draft class. It may be the most important need, but the players that are going to be available at #19 are simply not worth it. All this speculation is fun but we simply do not know who is going to be there. If there is an end we like we should not worry about the alleged virtues or faults of the class. Guys will fall for unpredictable reasons. Like Alex Brown, no one thought he would be available in the third round.
Nick Perry is an athletic dynamo, but leaves a lot to be desired. He actually reminds me a lot of Gaines Adams. That sounds far fetched.
I've watched quite a bit of Mercilus as well and do not feel his value is in the top-20 of any draft. Mercilus produced at a Big Time level and there is no reason to think that he won't at the next. I would not complain about taking him at all. But, again, that judgment cannot be evaluated until we know who is actually going to be there.
This corner class is extremely strong. Gilmore and Janoris Jenkins are both incredibly skilled. I would roll the dice on one of these two rather than reaching on an end. You can't invalidate your argument because you loaded in its justification by saying the alternative is "reaching" for the end. As regards the CB class I don't see it as being particularly strong and have no overwhelming desire to draft either of these guys in the first round getting in mind my qualification. Having a guy who can add another 10 sacks to our total will make our CBs look a lot better.
I think Jenkins & Gilmore are two of the most undervalued players in the draft right now. And a lot of that can be traced to some disturbing character concerns, but on the field at least you know you aren't likely to miss.
Michael Floyd is likely a pipe dream at this point. Bummer. I agree, but it does not disturb much me that he prolly won't be there.
And the tackles like Jonathan Martin are very flawed in their own right. I believe tackle is kinda low on the Bears list now, too.
A prospect that is really gaining steam is OG Amini Silatolu who I would love to nab in the second round. 6'4" 315 and very tenacious. I think he's an instant starter on which ever team takes him. If we take a DL or WR in the first I would not mind this at all.
I also like Brandon Washington after Round 2 as a great developmental guard. He's raw, but at 320 lbs and his athleticism seems like a perfect guard for Tice to mold. I assume this is an alternative to Silatolu not taking both. I would not take both. |
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ChicagoAl
Joined: 10 Jan 2008 Posts: 7096
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMike wrote: | | Perry has much better bulk, strength and has a better motor then Adams. Adams was more explosive though. Adams busting doesnt mean Perry will. Perry is definitely worth our 1st round pick. | Adams was a dead man walking. Perry isn't that I hope. |
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madmike44 
Joined: 05 Feb 2007 Posts: 7503 Location: South Loop, Chicago
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:10 pm Post subject: |
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I agree that the corners in the first round are better for their position than the DE's are. However with us, if we keep playing cover-2 we don't really need a 1st round CB (although it's always nice to have one). Having said that, I'd probably take a CB over a DE. Who knows how much cover-2 we'll continue to play and who knows how long Lovie will be here. If we have a bad year next year he may be gone.
I'd still prefer a WR in the first though. But I wouldn't be mad with a CB either. |
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IronMike84 
Joined: 17 Jun 2009 Posts: 5990
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| madmike44 wrote: | | Who knows how much cover-2 we'll continue to play... |
Bears ran so much man coverage last year that it would be nice to find a guy who can cover well in man and zone. A lot of the top-rated corners this year get good scores in both coverages and would fit in with what the Bears need in a corner. |
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BEARS24 
Joined: 25 Sep 2008 Posts: 4576 Location: TytybearsFan21 on the siggy!!!
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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What if a DT were to fall to us?
Worth it to get a constantly fresh rotation, or just a luxury? _________________
| kenney wrote: | | BYE week emerges as second best team in the AFC. |
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IronMike84 
Joined: 17 Jun 2009 Posts: 5990
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| BEARS24 wrote: | What if a DT were to fall to us?
Worth it to get a constantly fresh rotation, or just a luxury? |
I'd consider Fletcher Cox if he somehow lasts to 19. |
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DaMike
Joined: 21 Nov 2010 Posts: 3366
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Euphemism wrote: | | DaMike wrote: | | Perry has much better bulk, strength and has a better motor then Adams. Adams was more explosive though. Adams busting doesnt mean Perry will. Perry is definitely worth our 1st round pick. |
He only has one skill and is better suited in a 3-4. | Which is the speed rush, bull rush or spin move because he's been effective using all 3. |
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khodder 
 Joined: 19 Dec 2005 Posts: 48517 Location: New New York
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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Looking through some draft historues of Phil Emery with Atlanta and Kansas City where he was the director of scouting has thrown a few pretty common trends out at me.
The first is that he loves to draft WR's, DT's and CB's early on in the draft, specifically in the first two rounds. This changed his first couple of years in KC, but the second of that is more likely to be Pioli's doing (Jackson pick)
If you look from 2004-2007 drafts at the Falcons took the following players in the first two rounds;
DeAngelo Hall - 1st - CB - Virginia Tech
Michael Jenkins - 1st - WR - Ohio State
Roddy White - 1st - WR - UAB
Jonathan Babineaux - 2nd - DT - Iowa
Jimmy F. Williams - 2nd - CB - Virginia Tech
Jamaal Anderson - 1st - DE - Arkansas
Justin Blalock - 2nd - OG - Texas
Chris Houston - 2nd - CB - Arkansas
And then from 2008-2011 at KC.
Glenn Dorsey - DT - 1st - LSU
Brandon Albert - OT - 1st - Virginia
Brandon Flowers - CB - 2nd - Virginia Tech
Tyson Jackson - DE/DT - 1st - LSU
Eric Berry - S - 1st - Tennessee
Dexter McCluster - RB/WR - 2nd - Ole Miss
Javier Arenas - CB - 2nd - Alabama
Jonathan Baldwin - WR - 1st - Pittsburgh
Rodney Hudson - OG - 2nd - Florida State
Eight of his Seventeen first and second round picks have been WR's or CB's. Three more were DT's, three more were on the offensive line.
McCluster, Berry and Anderson are the exceptions to CB/WR/OL/DT.
Second is that he love to stay east, the ACC and SEC and favorites and the Big East, Big 10 and Big 12 are next.
Third, he love Virginia Tech corners, three drafted in the first two rounds. Expect Jayron Hosley on the Bears in 2012.
He tends to like size/speed receivers, Baldwin, White, and Jenkins are all bigger in frame, Jenkins and Baldwin are both 6-4 and White at 6-1 is the smallest, but was very thick at 207-212 depending on where you look.
Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle both fit the bigger receiver and ACC/SEC trends as well as taking an early round WR.
As of right now I think Hill/Hosley are going to be the first.second round pick combo for the Bears. _________________ Patrick Peterson - 92 targets, 40 catches allowed, 602 yards, 6 TD's, 7 INT's
The Big Brain am winning again, I am the Greetest. |
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madmike44 
Joined: 05 Feb 2007 Posts: 7503 Location: South Loop, Chicago
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| khodder wrote: | Looking through some draft historues of Phil Emery with Atlanta and Kansas City where he was the director of scouting has thrown a few pretty common trends out at me.
The first is that he loves to draft WR's, DT's and CB's early on in the draft, specifically in the first two rounds. This changed his first couple of years in KC, but the second of that is more likely to be Pioli's doing (Jackson pick)
If you look from 2004-2007 drafts at the Falcons took the following players in the first two rounds;
DeAngelo Hall - 1st - CB - Virginia Tech
Michael Jenkins - 1st - WR - Ohio State
Roddy White - 1st - WR - UAB
Jonathan Babineaux - 2nd - DT - Iowa
Jimmy F. Williams - 2nd - CB - Virginia Tech
Jamaal Anderson - 1st - DE - Arkansas
Justin Blalock - 2nd - OG - Texas
Chris Houston - 2nd - CB - Arkansas
And then from 2008-2011 at KC.
Glenn Dorsey - DT - 1st - LSU
Brandon Albert - OT - 1st - Virginia
Brandon Flowers - CB - 2nd - Virginia Tech
Tyson Jackson - DE/DT - 1st - LSU
Eric Berry - S - 1st - Tennessee
Dexter McCluster - RB/WR - 2nd - Ole Miss
Javier Arenas - CB - 2nd - Alabama
Jonathan Baldwin - WR - 1st - Pittsburgh
Rodney Hudson - OG - 2nd - Florida State
Eight of his Seventeen first and second round picks have been WR's or CB's. Three more were DT's, three more were on the offensive line.
McCluster, Berry and Anderson are the exceptions to CB/WR/OL/DT.
Second is that he love to stay east, the ACC and SEC and favorites and the Big East, Big 10 and Big 12 are next.
Third, he love Virginia Tech corners, three drafted in the first two rounds. Expect Jayron Hosley on the Bears in 2012.
He tends to like size/speed receivers, Baldwin, White, and Jenkins are all bigger in frame, Jenkins and Baldwin are both 6-4 and White at 6-1 is the smallest, but was very thick at 207-212 depending on where you look.
Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle both fit the bigger receiver and ACC/SEC trends as well as taking an early round WR.
As of right now I think Hill/Hosley are going to be the first.second round pick combo for the Bears. |
Great analysis.
I would predict he drafts one of the SEC corners first (if available) and then takes a WR in the 2nd. Either Hill, Jeffery, or Randle, if any are available. |
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khodder 
 Joined: 19 Dec 2005 Posts: 48517 Location: New New York
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| madmike44 wrote: | Great analysis.
I would predict he drafts one of the SEC corners first (if available) and then takes a WR in the 2nd. Either Hill, Jeffery, or Randle, if any are available. |
The issue I see with the SEC Corners is the Gilmore is rising fast and is likely a top 15 guy. Claiborne will be long gone and Kirkpatrick has some drug issues and the early draft picks have tended to be pretty clean cut guys.
That and CB in the 2nd seems to be his preferred route. 5 CB's in the analysis above, four of them were in the 2nd round. Two from Va Tech, two from the SEC.
A Va Tech Corner in the 2nd round seems like it "fits" and that is what they would get with Jayron Hosley. _________________ Patrick Peterson - 92 targets, 40 catches allowed, 602 yards, 6 TD's, 7 INT's
The Big Brain am winning again, I am the Greetest. |
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