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Is it easier for good teams to draft well?
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ajdodge09


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 5:40 pm    Post subject: Is it easier for good teams to draft well? Reply with quote

This is essentially the "chicken vs. egg" debate in football form. Do you think it's easier for the "good" teams to have successful drafts, because they don't need to rely on rookies making an impact immediately like "bad" teams? They can be a lot more patient with their rookies and allow them to develop at their own pace, rather than forcing them to play if they are not ready just because they need them to. Or are the good teams good because they draft successfully? I know there are elements of both that are true, but which do you think has a bigger impact? Good teams are good because they draft well, or they draft well because they are good teams and can allow their rookies to develop?
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paul-mac


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah.


In the top 10 your job can live or die by one pick, later on you just let the board fall to you and take the BPA.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes and no. I'd say good teams are good because they have better coaching staffs and develop players more successfully. So is it easier? Not exactly but they're more likely to hit on the picks because their team is better at getting the most out of its young players.
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bobloblaw86


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's definitely a factor that mitigates picking later in the draft, but overall, I still think teams that pick higher have an advantage, and should be able to turn things around.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Yes and no. I'd say good teams are good because they have better coaching staffs and develop players more successfully. So is it easier? Not exactly but they're more likely to hit on the picks because their team is better at getting the most out of its young players.


Bingo - and therefore there isn't the pressure on their draft picks to succeed.
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ajdodge09


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Yes and no. I'd say good teams are good because they have better coaching staffs and develop players more successfully. So is it easier? Not exactly but they're more likely to hit on the picks because their team is better at getting the most out of its young players.


Good point...but then this raises a similar question. Is the player development more important or the player talent more important? Again, I realize both need to be there to be successful, but would you rather have an elite prospect with mediocre coaches, or a mediocre prospect with elite coaches?
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khodder


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajdodge09 wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Yes and no. I'd say good teams are good because they have better coaching staffs and develop players more successfully. So is it easier? Not exactly but they're more likely to hit on the picks because their team is better at getting the most out of its young players.


Good point...but then this raises a similar question. Is the player development more important or the player talent more important? Again, I realize both need to be there to be successful, but would you rather have an elite prospect with mediocre coaches, or a mediocre prospect with elite coaches?


Almost no doubt in my mind I want the elite coaching staff. Prospects are so hit and miss even in the first round, and the difference between 10 and 30 is not all that big and can easily be made up with a coaching staff getting more out of that pick and picks in the middle/later rounds.
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DrawABlank


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajdodge09 wrote:
Good point...but then this raises a similar question. Is the player development more important or the player talent more important? Again, I realize both need to be there to be successful, but would you rather have an elite prospect with mediocre coaches, or a mediocre prospect with elite coaches?


The problem is that there are VERY few elite prospects. I think there are generally 4-6 each draft

2012: Luck, Griffin, Richardson, Kuechly, DeCastro
2011: Dareus, Miller, Green, Peterson, Jones, T Smith
2010: Suh, McCoy, Berry, Okung, Pouncey

You need to be hitting on 3 selections each draft, with at least one difference maker. So unless your GM can get you 3 top 8 picks every year, you need the coaching staff to develop your players.

An excellent example is Pierre-Paul - I've seen people give him to other teams in "re-mocks" which totals ignores the fact that he probably busts on 90% of teams. But going to the perfect environment for a young pass rusher (solid vets ahead of you, great coaching staff, no pressure to perform immediately, tradition at the position) meant he was able to develop into a force.
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Jamison.


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Yes and no. I'd say good teams are good because they have better coaching staffs and develop players more successfully. So is it easier? Not exactly but they're more likely to hit on the picks because their team is better at getting the most out of its young players.
Wow, don't think I could've said it any better than this. Spot on.
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Bohlmann20


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say it's easier for better teams because their supporting casts are much stronger and that sets the rookies up for better success.
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DreDay80


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajdodge09 wrote:

2011: T Smith


How in the world is T.Smith an elite prospect?
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PacAttack04


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DreDay80 wrote:
ajdodge09 wrote:

2011: T Smith


How in the world is T.Smith an elite prospect?


The guy was an absolute freak at OT. Really, I saw it as the only reason he didnt go higher was because he played RT his entire career. And the fact that a career collegiate RT went #9 overall says a lot. RTs and guards fall every year, DeCastro this year is the perfect example of that, yet Smith didn't suffer from that which speaks to how much potential he really had.
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ajdodge09


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DreDay80 wrote:
DrawABlank wrote:

2011: T Smith


How in the world is T.Smith an elite prospect?


FIFY...I did not say this lol
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DrawABlank


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DreDay80 wrote:
DrawABlank wrote:
2011: T Smith

How in the world is T.Smith an elite prospect?


Because he had the trifecta of elite measurables, dominant tape in a decent conference and no injury / character / work ethic / competitiveness concerns.

Anyway, the prospects I name are not really the point of the post.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think great teams have the coaching staff and personnel to put rookies in the ideal position to succeed, so i think the players they select are more likely to pan out. I also think that well run teams have the scouts and general managers at the top to generally draft well consistently. The Patriots are a confusing example. Excellent run team, who are always great but have drafted pretty poorly the past few years. i guess, a HOF QB and HOF coach is a deadly combo.
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