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FullCapacity
Joined: 03 Aug 2011
Posts: 36
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 Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:58 am Post subject: |
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Again, there is the difference between a "good pick" and a "good value"
Anger is a good pick if he contributes in a positive way towards wins and has a career with the Jags spanning longer than the league average career. If the Jags can get a 10 year player with above average league production, I would consider that a good pick.
Whether or not Anger is a good value is dependent on whether the Jags could have gotten Anger in a later round and used the 3rd rounder on some other need, meaning was Anger worth the opportunity cost?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NFL_Draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NFL_Draft
Look at the last three drafts where some semblance of an evaluation can be made. ( Last years draft is probably not fair to judge yet) Not too many third rounders pan out to be elite players. Not too many even become above average starters.
Given the new rules by the competition committee that progressively make special teams weigh more and more in favor of offense, I think Anger could make a big impact. |
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charles shelton
Joined: 22 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 8:10 am Post subject: |
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Couple thoughts on this from a jags' fan..
punter is one of those positions that's really hard to judge just from stats. You really have to watch these guys play to pick up on the nuances that separate the good punters from the bad ones. You also have to qualify these statistical measures. A punter on a team like jax last year who were probably near the top of the league in 3 and outs, probably punted from deep in his own territory much more often than a punter on a team with a better offense. This is naturually going to pad his gross & net yards since even the scrub punters can usually boom it 45-50 yds when they have the whole field to punt to. I have no stats to back this opinion up, but I would guarantee that punters on teams like green bay, new england, new orleans, etc. are probably punting from much better field position on average and therefore are probably more often punting directionally or to give their gunners a chance to down the ball inside the 20. Anyway...probably hurts their averages.
On where the Jags took him...probably wouldn't have been in the 3rd if they hadn't used their 4th round pick to make the move up to grab Blackmon. A move I'm sure most of you would agree was a move they needed to make and were able to do so for a pretty good price. They also were hurt by the fact that they had no compensatory picks. They definitely needed to upgrade their punter and obviously had targeted this kid as a *major* upgrade at the position. After trading the 4th...I think Gene Smith just didn't want to risk some team with a compensatory pick in the 4th or some team with fewer holes to fill taking Anger since it was pretty common knowledge that punter was a definite need for us. Was it too early to take a punter...yeah I think so, but I understand Smith's thought process and I can't really find fault with it. My only criticism would be that I think the kid from Georgia would have been a major upgrade as well, and considering that he went undrafted, would have been there in the 7th had the Jags not wanted to risk not getting him as an udfa.
my 2 cents.
-Charles
ps. isn't going to matter because our passing game will be light years better and we're going to own all your arses. Championship!  |
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RoeKG
Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Posts: 4005
Location: PA
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| GaTechRavens wrote: | | TomRalph wrote: | | GaTechRavens wrote: | | The-Beast wrote: | | League average punting has evolved to the point to where just about everybody can do it well enough to not be considered a detriment. Making the importance of eliteness at the position meaningless. No punter is worth a 3rd in todays NFL when the difference in ability in miniscule. |
You're going to get a bunch of posts telling you how wrong you are, but you're completely right. Field position is generally overrated by the people who gush about how important it is, and even so the difference between punters on a team to team basis really isn't much. It's not quite as narrow as it is for kickers, but it's still enough where the difference between Shane Lechler an a league average punter isn't going to make much of a difference for your team over the course of a typical game. |
As a Pats fan whose entire SB was ruined by Steve Weatherford moreso than Eli Manning, I can tell you that in the games that are as close as they are in the PO's or SB, field position is very important. |
Isn't everything that occurs on every single play very important, though? Sure, you could say that field position from the punting game made the difference. But so did a missed block on any particular running play, or a defensive end setting the edge perfectly, or a wrong route, or a jam that takes the receiver out of a play. People talk about putting being one of the "little things" that makes a big impact, but what about things like that which turned what could have been big plays into routine ones? When you consider every single game changing play/non-play, does the punting game really reach the top of the list in terms of impact? I wouldn't say so, personally. |
When you're the Jags and your punter (who spent a lot of time punting, remember) is averaging 41.5 yards per punt, and the best offenses in the league are going an average of 6.7 yards per play, you just bought yourself a whole series - 3 plays - by getting a punter that can kick it 60 yards. With the Jags defense letting up 5.1 yards/play, it could be 4 plays.
Every play is important but a change like that is easily worth a 3rd. If he's also accurate with it, all the better.
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GaTechRavens
Joined: 25 Nov 2006
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Location: Knoxville, TN
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 8:40 am Post subject: |
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| RoeKG wrote: | | GaTechRavens wrote: | | TomRalph wrote: | | GaTechRavens wrote: | | The-Beast wrote: | | League average punting has evolved to the point to where just about everybody can do it well enough to not be considered a detriment. Making the importance of eliteness at the position meaningless. No punter is worth a 3rd in todays NFL when the difference in ability in miniscule. |
You're going to get a bunch of posts telling you how wrong you are, but you're completely right. Field position is generally overrated by the people who gush about how important it is, and even so the difference between punters on a team to team basis really isn't much. It's not quite as narrow as it is for kickers, but it's still enough where the difference between Shane Lechler an a league average punter isn't going to make much of a difference for your team over the course of a typical game. |
As a Pats fan whose entire SB was ruined by Steve Weatherford moreso than Eli Manning, I can tell you that in the games that are as close as they are in the PO's or SB, field position is very important. |
Isn't everything that occurs on every single play very important, though? Sure, you could say that field position from the punting game made the difference. But so did a missed block on any particular running play, or a defensive end setting the edge perfectly, or a wrong route, or a jam that takes the receiver out of a play. People talk about putting being one of the "little things" that makes a big impact, but what about things like that which turned what could have been big plays into routine ones? When you consider every single game changing play/non-play, does the punting game really reach the top of the list in terms of impact? I wouldn't say so, personally. |
When you're the Jags and your punter (who spent a lot of time punting, remember) is averaging 41.5 yards per punt, and the best offenses in the league are going an average of 6.7 yards per play, you just bought yourself a whole series - 3 plays - by getting a punter that can kick it 60 yards. With the Jags defense letting up 5.1 yards/play, it could be 4 plays.
Every play is important but a change like that is easily worth a 3rd. If he's also accurate with it, all the better. |
The guy isn't going to average 60 yards per punt. Even if he was the single best punter in the league, he'd be getting 50 tops. You can't just state what he "can" do and say he bought himself 20 extra yards. It doesn't work that way. If you're going to use the current punter's average, you have to use Anger's average.
Also, Jacksonville's punter's average was 42.7, not 41.5. And that was his lowest average since 2004, so it might be a bit of a fluke. So even in what's basically the best possible scenario, you're getting about 8 yards. Which sounds great, but then you have to take into account the fact that longer punts generally lead to longer returns, so the net is probably less than that. All in all, even if you replace one of the league's worst punters with one of the best, the improvement in field position isn't that spectacular.
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oakdb36
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 12742
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| It's easy to think a 3rd is too high for a punter but if Anger is to have the same kind of career as Lechler, no one will complain about the pick in the future. Lechler is entering his 13th season in the league, and while some may think his impact is limited, i wonder how many players from the 2000 draft class still have any kind of impact in the NFL. For the record, Lechler was a 5th round pick. |
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RuskieTitan
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 9:18 am Post subject: |
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With Blaine Gabbert leading your offense, you better make sure you got one hell of a punter 
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mikeyfarley
Joined: 16 Jan 2008
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Location: floride
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:14 am Post subject: |
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| oakdb36 wrote: | | It's easy to think a 3rd is too high for a punter but if Anger is to have the same kind of career as Lechler, no one will complain about the pick in the future. Lechler is entering his 13th season in the league, and while some may think his impact is limited, i wonder how many players from the 2000 draft class still have any kind of impact in the NFL. For the record, Lechler was a 5th round pick. |
This is the problem though. There have been several punters taken earlier than where Lechler was taken in the draft and none of them have been as good as him.
BJ Sander and Dustin Colquitt were taken in the 3rd round and neither is a Lechler type player. Sander was a complete bust, and Colquitt is a consistent above average punter, but not pro bowl or all-pro caliber.
Sauerbrun was a 2nd round pick by Chicago in 95, and didn't make a pro bowl until his 7th season and 3rd team. Then after his 8th season he went back to being mediocre.
Even punters that end up being a top 10 punter in the league aren't that good their first year or two, and hardly any of them will be close to being as consistent as Lechler.
People have brought up Weatherford in this thread and he actually punted for the Jags half of one season when Podlesh was injured. He was consistently mediocre, the Jags let him go and he bounced around another team or two before he was with the Giants. It just seems like most punters can come out of nowhere and have a good season or two. That's why teams don't spend high picks on these players.
The Jags took Podlesh with a 4th round pick, he wasn't good early and most Jag fans hated him and wanted him replaced. He played better around his 3rd season and everyone hated it when he left in FA last offseason. It seems like unless you're Shane Lechler you won't be a stud as a rookie, and if this guy takes as long as Podlesh to become a decent punter he might not even make it through his rookie contract. This is a real problem I think, because the Jags GM is building this kid up like he'll be Lechler or Ray Guy right away, when it's not likely.
For every Lechler(pick 142 in 2000) or Lee(pick 188 in 2004) taken in the 5th round or later there is a David Leaverton(pick 142 in 2001) or Brent Bowden(pick 172 in 2010).
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Adrenaline_Flux
Joined: 19 Dec 2008
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Location: The Iowa
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:21 am Post subject: |
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| texans_uk wrote: | | Anyone who thinks punters aren't important haven't had Matt Turk on their roster. |
Which is why we like the pick.
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Rockice_8
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:44 am Post subject: |
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Jags will probably be punting alot so it wouldn't hurt to have a good one. I still can't justify taking one in the 3rd. I think late 4th would be the earliest I could consider a punter, especially when you have so many other needs.
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ColumbusCrewzer
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:45 am Post subject: |
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I think Anger is a good player and will be a good punter in this league but I still think it's a reach. I agree that punters are undervalued and the Jags punt a lot but they could of got him in the 4th or the 5th probably.
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ttitansfan4life
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:16 am Post subject: |
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I'd rather not waste a 3rd round pick on a punter. If it's a 6th round or later fine. I don't give a damn how good he is, punters just are not that valuable to spend a 3rd on. Look at the top punters from last year. Andy Lee(6th round pick), Shane Lechler(5th round pick), and Brandon Fields(7th Round Pick). Hell, even the Raiders didn't spend a high draft pick on a punter.
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charles shelton
Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Posts: 1666
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| ColumbusCrewzer wrote: | | I think Anger is a good player and will be a good punter in this league but I still think it's a reach. I agree that punters are undervalued and the Jags punt a lot but they could of got him in the 4th or the 5th probably. |
They traded their 4th round pick to move up to get Blackmon, something some of you keep overlooking.
-Charles |
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TomRalph
Joined: 03 Apr 2009
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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Also, Anger is 6'2 and 200lbs+ meaning he should also be able to make some tackles on ST's
Haven't watched any film of him, but could someone shed some light on whether he has made any tackles before?
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goldfishwars
Joined: 27 Mar 2011
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| TomRalph wrote: | Also, Anger is 6'2 and 200lbs+ meaning he should also be able to make some tackles on ST's
Haven't watched any film of him, but could someone shed some light on whether he has made any tackles before? |
Might be one on his highlight reel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDZy0XQ74-8
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Redskins24-7
Joined: 21 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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| texans_uk wrote: | | Anyone who thinks punters aren't important haven't had Matt Turk on their roster. |
He wasn't THAT bad for the Redskins. Then again, he punted for us about 15 years ago.
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