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JustisM


Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 16605
Location: Hood River, Oregon
PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:13 pm    Post subject: JustisM's draft thread Reply with quote

What's up guys. Going to come into this and tell you guys straight up that I won't do every single position. There just isn't enough time to watch live games and youtube snippets on every single player. What I am going to do though is post ideas on prospects than I have or plan on seeing. I'll make sure I keep page 1 updated for anyone that wants to see. Also I will be focusing mostly on seniors or guys that I have a strong feeling that will enter the 2013 draft. If you want to follow along then coolcoolcool.

Links:

Quick QB comparison
2003-2012 QBs who have declared and stats
Front 4 prospects translated to 3-4 positions
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[quote="TytybearsFan21"]Drive off into the sunset, you brilliant bastard.[/quote]


Last edited by JustisM on Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:23 pm; edited 3 times in total
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JustisM


Joined: 13 Jan 2007
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Location: Hood River, Oregon
PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First thing I am going to do is a little quick read up for people on all of the "important QB prospects" for next year. Here's the list:
Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel
I figured that's the cut off for seniors that are pretty much locks to be drafted in 2013. There's a pretty big drop off of guys after that and IMO you can make an argument for them not to be drafted (although I can't wait to see Tuel next year.) What I decided to do was add these "important" underclassmen:
Logan Thomas, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, Casey Pachall

I'm currently working on the layout and stuff of them but they should look something along the lines of this


2013 Quarterbacks


Matt Barkley USC 6'1" 218

Hometown: Santa Ana (Los Angeles), California (Mater Dei HS)
Strengths: Barkley has a good arm (enough that will get him by as an NFL starter) but it's not going to seal the deal for a team looking at him. He's got really good feet on his drop backs, rollouts, and even scrambles for a college player that doesn't run much. When a rush comes at him he won't just take a sack, he's going to try to shake the guy, but if he's getting chased down he isn't afraid to throw the ball away. Barkley took a good mix of shotgun and under-center snaps at USC. He actually took more under-center snaps than most NFL teams if I would have to guess. He has really good accuracy with timing routes like point and shoot screens and routes when you lead WR's. He also has a believable play action. Not a blazer but he's not slow by QB means.
Weaknesses: The biggest problem I have with Barkley is that he puts too much air under his long passes in one on one throws. I'm not sure if this is due to the fact that he has some of the best play makers in the nation on his side so they can make those plays or because he doesn't have touch passes deep. If you watch the Cal game you only have to wait for 13:17 in the first quarter when he has Marqise Lee in 1 on 1 coverage with Steve Williams. You will know what I mean when you see it. His pump fake is pretty bad. It's like he's going for the Big Ben pump fake (pro of pro's) but he half-[word for butt]s it so it just looks sloppy, that isn't that big of a fix though. His passes go crazy sometimes when he has to make them fast and tight. This leads me to think that his deep passes are lobbed due to him and not his talent around him. He Jay Cutler's when he's rushed. Definition of Jay Cutlering: getting rushed in a way where you still try to pass the ball but you turn your body parallel to the line of scrimmage and almost throw off your back foot and overstretch your throwing motion. He doesn't have enough arm to get away with it like Cutler can.
Notes: Matt Barkley has been treated as one of the top QB's since he stepped foot on the football field. He was the starting QB in high school at a football factory that pumped out Colt Brennan and Matt Leinart at the QB position in the past decade before him. By the time he played in the Under Armour All-American Game he already decided he was going to play at USC (his father's, who was an All American water polo player, alma mater) and was thrown into the QB vacancy that Mark Sanchez (2009 #5 Jets) left by entering in the NFL Draft a year early. Pete Carroll wasn't too happy about that. Barkley went to USC in the spring and beat out the two players that had backed up Sanchez previously, as a true freshman. The two players were Aaron Corp (Glenn Davis, best SoCal HS football player, award winner who transferred to Richmond in 2010 and was signed as a UDFA with the Bills) and Mitch Mustain (top HS QB who transferred from Arkansas when his HS coach left Arkansas for Tulsa. Mustain would back Barkley up until 2010 when he graduated. Dude got in trouble for selling his ADHD pills, spent a minute in the CFL and AFL, but is now a pitcher in the White Sox minor league system.) I don't see any character concerns with Barkley at all really. He's known to be religious and giving (goes to countries for charity work through his church/school), but he does seem overly cocky at times. When Chip Kelly came back to Oregon after speculation he would be the new Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach, Kelly said, "I have unfinished business", meaning he wanted to win a national championship with UO. Barkley added "me too" on his twitter referring to the fact that he hadn't won a Pac 12 Championship or bowl game yet. Players that have played against him have said he has a bit of a "big mouth." Barkley would have most-likely been a 1st round pick this year had he declared. There were debates if he was better than Robert Griffin III before he announced he was going back to USC. Overall I think he's going to be a great fit for a West Coast system. If he gets into a vertical offense he might be in trouble but besides that I can't see a way this kid can bust. If he goes the Rodgers route and increases his arm strength he could be a top 5 QB in the league.
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers (as a prospect)
2012
2011 308(3rd)/446(4th) 3,528(3rd) 69.1%(3rd) 7.91(5th) 39(1st):7(11th) 8(12th) 161.2(3rd)
2010 236(3rd)/377(2nd) 2,791(4th) 62.6%(3rd) 7.40(7th) 26(3rd):12(2nd) 16(6th) 141.2(3rd)
2009 211(4th)/352(5th) 2,735(4th) 59.9%(3rd) 7.77(2nd) 15(5th):14(1st) 17(6th) 131.3(3rd)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:*****(#1 Pro-style QB) Scout:*****(#1 QB) ESPN: 93 (#1 QB)
Offers: California, Colorado, Florida, Florida State, Nebraska, Stanford, Tennessee, UCLA, Washington


Tyler Wilson Arkansas 6'3" 220

Hometown: Greenwood, Arkansas (Greenwood HS)
Strengths: First thing that you notice about Wilson from watching him is that he is quick, quick with everything. He has a really fast, tight release on almost every pass. He has quick feet that look like they are about to flail in insanity but somehow stay on pace during drop backs. Unlike his predecessor Ryan Mallett he can use his feet to gain yards. He has a solid play action. Honestly if you just put this kid into a passing competition with everyone in college football right now he might just win. He's probably the best pure passer in the class.
Weaknesses: Here comes why most people don't think he's the best overall QB in the class though. He's really quick with everything but it seems like he's just jerking around (flailing robotically) some times and it only gets worse with the pass rush. He seems to me like one of these Gabbert/Carr situation at worst case. A guy who can make all the throws but the pass rush is just too much for him to overcome in the NFL to become a good starter. When he's rushed it almost looks like he's Mike Vick doing a shake before he kicks into another gear but almost always after that shake he goes into a type of standing fetal position. I don't think I have seen him get passed a pass rush to this day. Hopefully he work on that this season with a new head coach. Along with the pass rush situation he plays in a lot of shotgun formations, which will help him now but could hurt his progression in the pros. Lots of passing and multi-WR sets to go with the formation too.
Notes: Wilson started off his freshman year getting playing time against Alabama and Teas (yike, welcome to the NCAA) but ended up redshirting due to sickness. After that he sat behind Ryan Mallett (2011 #75 Patriots draft pick who recently transferred) for two years in which he came in for injury. Once Mallett graduated in 2010 Wilson took over as the starter. Overall Wilson is a top QB prospect but not a guy that is going to be ready day 1 of summer camp. I like him more as a pass than possibly anyone in this class but the lack of his ability to deal with the pass rush scares me. Everything he needs to work on though can be taught which leads me to think that he can be the first QB chosen in this draft if it's a team that leans towards the vertical passing game.
Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
2012
2011 277(1st)/438 (1st) 3638(1st) 63.8%(3rd) 8.31(2nd) 24(2nd):6(8th) 26(2nd) 148.4(1st)
2010 34(17th)/51(17th) 453(17th) 66.7%(NA) 8.88(NA) 4(16th):3(16th) 3(17th) 155.4(NA)
2009 22(16th)/36(19th) 218(17th) 61.1%(NA) 6.06(NA) 2(16th):2(16th) 0(23rd) 119.2(NA)
2008 11(25th)/22(25th) 69(27th) 50.0%(NA) 3.14(NA) 1(24th):2(20th) 3(23rd) 73.2(NA)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#9 Pro-style QB) Scout:*** (#35 QB) ESPN: 82 (#8 QB)
Offers: Alabama, Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, LSU, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Tulsa


Landry Jones Oklahoma 6'4" 230

Hometown: Artesia, New Mexico (Artesia HS)
Strengths: Landry Jones is a classic good passer in a system that can fully take advantage of it. He has a very quick release, even on deep passes. On top of his quick release he has pretty big arm and some of the best accuracy passes in this year's class. When he gets rushed he sticks through the rush and tries to make the pass. I debated on putting it in the weaknesses side but he makes it work more than not.
Weaknesses: Behind the line of scrimmage he is a high school QB. He takes almost exclusively pistol and shotgun snaps (also a package for his back up QB, that's never a good thing for the current QB.) When he drops back he looks like he just bounces on the balls of his foot back and forth. He doesn't actually go anywhere he's just keeping his legs moving. He might as well be jogging in place. The biggest problem he has is either that or the fact that he locks on to his WR's too much. He stares them down until the last second or he throws it to the guy even if he isn't open. Although he sticks through the pain to make the pass during the pass rush he never really shakes a defender. He either gets the pass out in time or he gets sacked. His play action just looks like he does a quick 360 before he jogs back into place.
Notes: He reshirted true freshman year as Sam Bradford was the starter. Bradford (2010 #1 Rams) got hurt several times which forced Jones into the starting roll. Bradford would declare for the 2010 draft the next season despite being injured almost the entire year. Jones is a typical air raid type QB with max attributes. If he stare and force passes he would be one of the best pure passers in the game right now and if he has any ability to use his legs he'd be higher thought of too. Last year I didn't really get the preseason hype on Jones being a 1st round pick and I'm not so sure I get it this year but if he improved in those two parts of his game I would think he would easily be a 1st rounder. I know that he's working with the "QB Guru" George Whitfield Jr this offseason so he has that going for his progression. At the end of the day he needs to be in a Saints type system to really shine unless he can get his feet down.
Comparison: Jay Cutler
2012
2011 355(3rd)/562(3rd) 4,463(2nd) 63.2%(6th) 7.94(3rd) 29(3rd):15(1st) 10(9th) 141.6(3rd)
2010 405(1st)/617(1st) 4,718(1st) 65.6%(4th) 7.65(5th) 38(1st):12(3rd) 19(7th) 146.3(2nd)
2009 261(6th)/449(5th) 3,198(6th) 58.1%(10th) 7.12(6th) 26(3rd):14(1st) 12(10th) 130.8(6th)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#6 Pro-style QB) Scout:**** (#6 QB) ESPN: 81 (#11 QB)
Offers: Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Virginia, Wisconsin


Geno Smith West Virginia 6'3" 214

Hometown: Miramar (Miami), Florida (Miramar HS)
Strengths: Geno Smith has one of the nicest looking spirals in the class. Even the deep ones are neat and tight. You can tell he went into college thinking he was going to be a "option" QB based on just his legs alone. His go to move when he gets rushes is to roll out to the right but unlike most QBs with his foot speed he actually keeps his eyes up and looks for a pass. If he can't get anything he'd rather throw it away than force a pass. He's pretty good with timing routes and leading WR's.
Weaknesses: The biggest knock he's going to get is that he played in an Air Raid type offense, outside of that almost all his problems stem from that. His feet aren't as bad as Jones's but they aren't good. One of the biggest things with his legs is that he backs up and throws off his back foot too much. He's got little pump fake. Although his throws always look nice they aren't the most accurate. In the Clemson game (WV scored 70+) he only had one throw above like fifteen yards that was right on target. Besides that his WRs had to do adjustments to get the catches.
Notes: His freshman year Geno sat behind Jarrett Brown (former 49ers/Browns/Colts 2010 UDFA) but he did start seeing time his true freshman year behind him. His true sophomore year he became the starter of the Mountaineers. I understand some of the hype he's getting but I don't think this guy is going to be much more than like Alex Smith. He needs to step into his passes and that might give him more help in the accuracy category too. He's fast and has a good arm though so some team will probably over draft him, possibly early 2nd round pick.
Comparison: Alex Smith
2012
2011 346(1st)/526(1st) 4,385(1st) 65.8%(1st) 8.34(1st) 31(1st):7(7th) 26(5th) 152.6(1st)
2010 241(1st)/372(2nd) 2,763(2nd) 64.8%(1st) 7.43(4th) 24(2nd):7(5th) 28(4th) 144.7(1st)
2009 32(15th)/49(15th) 309(15th) 65.3%(NA) 6.31(NA) 1(15th):1(14th) 5(13th) 120.9(NA)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#3 Dual-threat QB) Scout:****(#12) ESPN: 81 (#8)
Offers: Alabama, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, Michigan, South Florida


E.J. Manuel Florida State 6'4" 245

Hometown: Virginia Beach, Virginia (Bayside HS)
Strengths: Manuel is an odd QB because he seems to be better as a passer (including more accurate) when he's on the run rather than having his feet totally set. Despite that he always has his shoulders lined up the right way on his passes. He's got a good play action fake to go along with a fast, tight release on nearly every pass. He (along with Landry Jones, who I already stated, and Boyd) is working with George Whitfield Jr, the "QB Guru", this offseason to fine tune his skills.
Weaknesses: His feet are good on rollouts and scrambling but that's not the case when he's doing simple drop backs. Part of that problem can stem from the fact that he simply takes many more shotgun snaps than under-center snaps though. He turns into a poor man's Michael Vick when the pocket starts to collapse. He doesn't really look up and just tries to shake guys and gain yards. One good thing about that though is that he can actually make some moves unlike certain guys (Wilson) who try to shake but never seem to get past people. He has an odd number of batted down balls at the line of scrimmage. I can't figure our why though because he's 6'4" (ish) and shouldn't really have that problem with his release either. It's just another thing he needs to work on.
Notes: Our last senior on the list took over full time as a junior when Christian Ponder (2011 #12 Vikings) graduated. His previous two years he did get some playing time though due to Ponder's many injuries. All in all Manuel reminds me of a taller, but slower, Jake Locker. I think if he can get into an offense with a lot of bootlegs and shotgun rollouts then he can be a top 10 QB. Worst case scenario on him though is a lower floor IMO than any of the other seniors. I could honestly see him being drafted and having a strong arm, but little accuracy and panicking when the pocket breaks down.
Comparison: Jake Locker
2012
2011 203(8th)/311(9th) 2,666(8th) 65.3%(2nd) 8.57(2nd) 18(7th):8(10th) 33(2nd) 151.2(2nd)
2010 65(13th)/93(15th) 861(13th) 69.9%(NA) 9.26(NA) 4(15th):4(14th) 4(20th) 153.3(NA)
2009 69(13th)/106(13th) 817(13th) 65.1%(NA) 7.71(NA) 2(15th):6(11th) 5(15th) 124.7(NA)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#2 Dual-threat QB) Scout:**** (#2 QB) ESPN: 82 (#6 QB)
Offers: Alabama, Boston College, LSU, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, Tennessee


*Logan Thomas Virginia Tech 6'5" 254

Hometown: Lynchburg, Virginia (Brookville HS)
Strengths: After watching more and more games of Logan Thomas I can see why so many people think he could be the top QB prospect of this year. I'm almost on that boat myself. He's got a huge frame (wasn't recruited as a tight end for nothing) and with his legs he honestly creates a combo that only Cam Newton can rival. Throw in his natural speed with that and he's deadly with just those aspects alone. (Side note: if he doesn't work as a QB I think he could be a game changing TE. Maybe he's a back up and teams have special formations for him and stuff. Just a random though. Kid is a flat out football player. He threw and interception against Michigan and tackled the guy a split second later with perfect form.) He's really good on timing routes and screen passes. He had a good mix of run/pass plays and shotgun/under-center formations at Virginia Tech. He's got a believable play action and a deep ball with touch. Another deadly combination. He doesn't show it every play but he can gun the ball in when he needs to.
Weaknesses: It was harder to find holes in Thomas's game than anyone else so far. Not so much because he is so great but because what he's not really good at he's slightly above average with. High floor on Thomas. The one thing I didn't like is that he threw too many risky passes. Not because his accuracy was off or anything, just bad decision making. That can be coached out of him.
Notes: He redshirted his first year on campus and backed up Tyrod Taylor (2011 6th round pick Ravens) the next year before taking the starting job. Even when he was backing up Taylor he has a special package in which he came in, he even scored a receiving TD his redshirt freshman year. He took over as a redshirt sophomore and people have been excited about him since then. There was even small chatter about him possibly leaving college last year after one year of play to go pro. If I'm an NFL GM and I have a good team around me but just need a QB this is the guy that I want out of this class. It's going to take a small amount of time to develop this guy simply because how good his attributes are and the fact that he doesn't have any glaring holes in his game. Anything that he improves while he's in the NFL is just a bonus. No doubt in my mind that he's a top 5 pick whenever he declares.
Comparison: Cam Newton/Ben Roethlisberger
2012
2011 234(6th)/391(5th) 3,013(5th) 59.8%(9th) 7.71(4th) 19(6th):10(6th) 17(8th) 135.5(6th)
2010 12(23rd)/26(21st) 107(26th) 46.2%(NA) 4.12(NA) 0(27th):0(28th) 0(27th) 80.7(NA)
2009 Redshirt
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#1 TE) Scout:***** (#2 TE) ESPN: 81 (#8 ATH)
Offers: Penn State, Clemson, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia


*Tyler Bray Tennessee 6'5" 210

Hometown: Kingsburgh (Fresno), California (Kingsburgh HS)
Strengths:A quick look at Tyler Bray shows that he's a prototypical big armed vertical passing type QB. He played in that style at Tennessee by both passing a lot under-center with play action passes and vertical passes out of the shotgun. Much like the NFL teams now use. He's got solid feet for a guy that passes a lot out of the shotgun. He's got huge size reportedly between 6'5" and 6'6". Overcame a lot to play football at Tennessee after only getting D1-A scholarships from San Diego State (who he committed to before switching to UT) and Fresno State (local team.)
Weaknesses: He had a lot of open WR's to pass to while at Tennessee. Part coming from his very, very good WR corp (the top two WRs from this class could both be catching passes from him this year) and because almost all his passes were vertical. Didn't throw too many timing routes such as screens, slants and such. Doesn't seem to be much of a West Coast fit, would have to be in the Tom Brady Air Raid/West Coast system to succeed IMO.
Notes: He took over at the helm halfway through his true freshman year when the Vols benched Matt Simms (UDFA Jets) in 2010. He has held down the starting job since then despite throwing for much in his two years. He's going to be great for a vertical passing team but there seems to be less and less of them each year. If he is forced into a WCO I could seem him failing in the NFL but if he's in a good fit he's Phillip Rivers Jr.Even despite his [inappropriate/removed] tattoo.
Comparisons: Phillip Rivers
2012
2011 147(5th)/247(4th) 1,983(5th) 59.5%(6th) 8.03(4th) 17(3rd):6(8th) 11(15th) 144.8(5th)
2010 125(10th)/224(10th) 1,849(9th) 55.8%(12th) 8.25(9th) 18(7th):10(4th) 16(11th) 142.7(7th)
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#7 Pro-style QB) Scout:*** (#26 QB) ESPN: 81 (#6 QB)
Offers: Fresno State, San Diego State


*Aaron Murray Georgia 6'1" 212

Hometown: Tampa, Florida (Plant HS)
Strengths: Murray is a pro-style QB that played in a system with formations like Tyler Bray but had many more West Coast concepts in it. Took a solid amount of under-center snaps to go along with his shotgun ones. He shocked me on how mobile he is and he actually ran a surprising amount of reed options and running plays at UGA. He's got a solid arm but looks like he's throwing darts and that I think is part of his lowish accuracy percentage.
Weaknesses: First off Aaron Murray is the smallest of all the QB's on the list (you can argue Barkley but I think he's going to measure at 6'2" at the combine where as Murray will be under 6'1" IMO) which does actually effect his play. There are few players that play QB who are small that don't play like they are short QB's (Brees, Vick.) Murray plays like a small QB. He gets balls deflected by defenders at both the line of scrimmage and guys that are rushing him when he's trying to throw it away. It's fine as long as they are tips but at some point one of those big guys are going to manage to get a hold of that ball and the 6'0"-6'1" Murray isn't going to be able to take down a guy whose 100 pounds heavier than him. He also winds and buckles up on deep throws, that could also be due to his height.
Notes: Murray redshirted his freshman year as Joe Cox (my God he wasn't good) started as a senior. He was in the lead in the QB battle the next spring as he went at fellow redshirt freshman Zach Mettenberger in practice. At their spring game Mettenberger out-shinned him and was assumed to have the lead in the race although Murray was more touted coming out of the same high school class. Mettenberger later got hit with a sexual battery charge and got kick off the team (it's sort of a UGA thing.) Mettenberger went to a juco and was a 3rd stringer for LSU last year while Murray became the starter at Georgia. Murray's size isn't Kellen Moore bad but it is enough to have NFL teams question it. I don't think he will come out this year (at least I don't think he should) but he has enough tools to get drafted day 2 despite his height. If anyone wants a laugh Google "Aaron Murray spring break."
Comparisons: Matt Flynn
2012
2011 238(2nd)/403(2nd) 3,149(2nd) 59.1%(7th) 7.81(5th) 35(1st):14(1st) 32(1st) 146.4(4th)
2010 209(5th)/342(4th) 3,049(4th) 61.1%(6th) 8.92(4th) 24(3rd):8(8th) 24(5th) 154.5(4th)
2009 Redshirt
Total stats
Recruiting Rivals:**** (#3 Pro-style QB) Scout:***** (#3 QB) ESPN: 86 (#3 QB)
Offers: Auburn, Boston College, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Tennessee, UCLA


EDIT: Decided to cut off the last two guys because I feel like they are a full tier below all these guys.
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[quote="TytybearsFan21"]Drive off into the sunset, you brilliant bastard.[/quote]


Last edited by JustisM on Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:47 pm; edited 13 times in total
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JustisM


Joined: 13 Jan 2007
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Location: Hood River, Oregon
PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 2:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did a quick run through of the last ten drafts and QB's that declared early. This is what the simple list looks like:
2012-Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, Brock Osweiler
2011-Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Blaine Gabbert
2010-Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen
2009-Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008-None
2007-JaMarcus Russell
2006-Vince Young
2005-Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith
2004-Ben Roethlisberger
2003-Drew Henson, Rex Grossman
Between 2004-2009 not a single guy that declared was drafted lower than the 1st. Clausen, Brock Osweiler and Ryan Mallett were the lowest picks to declare (#78,#57, and #74 respectively) since Drew Henson (#192.) Henson though was an outlier as he played baseball before going back to football in 2003. Of the all the players that declared none of them were redshirt sophomores. Of the 18 players 9 of them were true juniors (Brock Osweiler, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Drew Henson) and 9 were redshirt juniors (Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Mark Sanchez, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, and Rex Grossman.) Of the 9 redshirt juniors to declare only 3 didn't redshirt their true freshman year (Ryan Mallett transfered his sophomore year causing him to lose his reshirt, both Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III redshirted their sophomore years due to injury.)
What I think about this:Pretty evident that more and more players are declaring early even if they aren't 1st round picks (Clausen, Mallett, Osweiler); 1/10 weren't first round picks in '03-'09, 3/8 declared players weren't 1st round picks in '10-'12. The other big take that I got was that a redshirt sophomore wouldn't declare even if he was projected in the 1st (ala Andrew Luck) because it seems like the NFL wants more years under these guys' belts.

Average year of declared QB
2003 3.50 (7/2)
2004 3.66 (11/3)
2005 3.40 (17/5)
2006 3.50 (21/6)
2007 3.57 (25/7)
2008 3.57 (25/7)
2009 3.50 (35/10)
2010 3.41 (41/12)
2011 3.46 (52/15)
2012 3.50 (63/18)

Average # of declared QB
2003 2.00 (2/1)
2004 1.50 (3/2)
2005 1.66 (5/3)
2006 1.50 (6/4)
2007 1.40 (7/5)
2008 1.40 (7/5)
2009 1.66 (10/6)
2010 1.71 (12/7)
2011 1.87 (15/8)
2012 2.00 (18/9)
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c0insnap


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I applaud you for the work it seems you've done. I'll be watching this thread closely.
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gohogs14


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im curious how Wilson compares to Gabbert. The Arkansas OL last season was pretty bad, i think Wilson was the most hit QB in the SEC, but most of the time Wilson sat there and delivered the pass, showed amazing toughness and didn't miss a snap. Gabbert last season didn't step into his throws when the pressure came. Wilson didn't have much choice but to go down most of the time lol...this game i was afraid he'd snap in two



http://www.secondemand.com/Theater/TabId/2117/8-Minute-Drill-Arkansas-vs-Alabama.aspx?ProductID=2656f4b9-ad64-4999-a7bd-817a22e38558#highlights
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gohogs14 wrote:
Im curious how Wilson compares to Gabbert. The Arkansas OL last season was pretty bad, i think Wilson was the most hit QB in the SEC, but most of the time Wilson sat there and delivered the pass, showed amazing toughness and didn't miss a snap. Gabbert last season didn't step into his throws when the pressure came. Wilson didn't have much choice but to go down most of the time lol...this game i was afraid he'd snap in two



http://www.secondemand.com/Theater/TabId/2117/8-Minute-Drill-Arkansas-vs-Alabama.aspx?ProductID=2656f4b9-ad64-4999-a7bd-817a22e38558#highlights


Not sure about most hit but he was the second moat sacked. I think Gabbert is good comparison as of now.

EDIT: Just watched the LSU game over again. Same type of thing
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Last edited by JustisM on Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

c0insnap wrote:
I applaud you for the work it seems you've done. I'll be watching this thread closely.


Gracias!
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Oregon Ducks


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll be following your thread wey.
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oregon Ducks wrote:
I'll be following your thread wey.

Coolcoolcool


On second thought I'm cutting off those last two prospects because they are a full tier below the other guys IMO. Also if anyone has any questions about prospects I would be glad to answer them. Let it be known though I am pretty turrible with DBs and OL because 1) what DBs actually do are hardly on TV feeds unless they mess up and 2) I don't really know what to look at for OL

My QB rankings as of now:

t1 Matt Barkley USC (top 5 pick)
t1 *Logan Thomas Virginia Tech (top 5 pick)
t3 Tyler Wilson Arkansas (top 15 pick)
t3 *Tyler Bray Tennessee (top 15 pick)
5 Landry Jones Oklahoma (early 2nd round pick)
6 EJ Manuel Florida State (early-mid 2nd round pick)
7 Geno Smith West Virginia (mid 2nd round pick)
8 *Aaron Murray Georgia (mid-late 2nd round pick)
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gohogs14


Joined: 11 May 2012
Posts: 137
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JustisM wrote:
gohogs14 wrote:
Im curious how Wilson compares to Gabbert. The Arkansas OL last season was pretty bad, i think Wilson was the most hit QB in the SEC, but most of the time Wilson sat there and delivered the pass, showed amazing toughness and didn't miss a snap. Gabbert last season didn't step into his throws when the pressure came. Wilson didn't have much choice but to go down most of the time lol...this game i was afraid he'd snap in two



http://www.secondemand.com/Theater/TabId/2117/8-Minute-Drill-Arkansas-vs-Alabama.aspx?ProductID=2656f4b9-ad64-4999-a7bd-817a22e38558#highlights


Not sure about most hit but he was the second moat sacked. I think Gabbert is good comparison as of now.

EDIT: Just watched the LSU game over again. Same type of thing


Well maybe he'll look better this year with a better OL and running game. I still think him standing and delivering the pass while getting drilled against bama and LSU is better than what gabbert would have done, plus he has a stronger arm. 24 TDs to 6 INTs isn't bad for a first year starter
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gohogs14 wrote:
JustisM wrote:
gohogs14 wrote:
Im curious how Wilson compares to Gabbert. The Arkansas OL last season was pretty bad, i think Wilson was the most hit QB in the SEC, but most of the time Wilson sat there and delivered the pass, showed amazing toughness and didn't miss a snap. Gabbert last season didn't step into his throws when the pressure came. Wilson didn't have much choice but to go down most of the time lol...this game i was afraid he'd snap in two



http://www.secondemand.com/Theater/TabId/2117/8-Minute-Drill-Arkansas-vs-Alabama.aspx?ProductID=2656f4b9-ad64-4999-a7bd-817a22e38558#highlights


Not sure about most hit but he was the second moat sacked. I think Gabbert is good comparison as of now.

EDIT: Just watched the LSU game over again. Same type of thing


Well maybe he'll look better this year with a better OL and running game. I still think him standing and delivering the pass while getting drilled against bama and LSU is better than what gabbert would have done, plus he has a stronger arm. 24 TDs to 6 INTs isn't bad for a first year starter


Well he did throw a lot to get those number too. Throw in the WRs that he lost from last year and a new coach and his numbers could actually drop.
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3-4 Positions

I was looking at some sites and realized that 99% of them just go by 4-3 positions (I know there are some good sites that label both) so I decided to take anyone in the top 200 front four (DE, DT) positions on CBS Sports and place them where I think they will be as 3-4 players.




Players listed as "DTs" on CBS Sports:


NT
Johnathan Jenkins Georgia
Anthony Rashad White Michigan State

NT/DE
Star Lotulelei Utah
*Johnathon Hankins Ohio State
Sylvester Williams North Carolina
Montori Hughes Tennessee-Martin

DE
*Bennie Logan LSU
Kawann Short Purdue
Jessee Williams Alabama
*Cassius Marsh UCLA
*Sharrif Floyd Florida
Joe Vellano Maryland
Aaron Tipoti California
*Dominique Easley Florida
Baker Steinkuhler Nebraska

No fit
*Akeem Spence Illinois
Jordan Hill Penn State
Josh Downs LSU


Players listed as "DEs" on CBS Sports:



DE
*Bjoern Werner Florida State
Margus Hunt SMU
*William Gholston Michigan State
John Simon Ohio State
Cameron Meredith Nebraska
Damion Square Alabama

OLB
*Sam Montgomery LSU
*Jackson Jeffcoat Texas
Alex Okafor Texas
Michael Buchanan Illinois
*Corey Lemonier Auburn
Dion Jordan Oregon
*James Gayle Virginia Tech
Lavar Edwards LSU

None
Wes Horton USC
Devin Taylor South Carolina
Craig Roh Michigan
Malliciah Goodman Clemson
Datone Jones UCLA
Brad Madison Missouri

None might not mean no fit at all as much as it means it's a way better fit for a 4-3 team and I think they would value the selection of that player a lot more compared to a 3-4. I don't think a 3-4 team will take them
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Duffman57


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JustisM wrote:
3-4 Positions

I was looking at some sites and realized that 99% of them just go by 4-3 positions (I know there are some good sites that label both) so I decided to take anyone in the top 200 front four (DE, DT) positions on CBS Sports and place them where I think they will be as 3-4 players.




Players listed as "DTs" on CBS Sports:


NT
Johnathan Jenkins Georgia
Anthony Rashad White Michigan State

NT/DE
Star Lotulelei Utah
*Johnathon Hankins Ohio State
Sylvester Williams North Carolina
Montori Hughes Tennessee-Martin

DE
*Bennie Logan LSU
Kawann Short Purdue
Jessee Williams Alabama
*Cassius Marsh UCLA
*Sharrif Floyd Florida
Joe Vellano Maryland
Aaron Tipoti California
*Dominique Easley Florida
Baker Steinkuhler Nebraska

No fit
*Akeem Spence Illinois
Jordan Hill Penn State
Josh Downs LSU


Players listed as "DEs" on CBS Sports:



DE
*Bjoern Werner Florida State
Margus Hunt SMU
*William Gholston Michigan State
John Simon Ohio State
Cameron Meredith Nebraska
Damion Square Alabama

OLB
*Sam Montgomery LSU
*Jackson Jeffcoat Texas
Alex Okafor Texas
Michael Buchanan Illinois
*Corey Lemonier Auburn
Dion Jordan Oregon
*James Gayle Virginia Tech
Lavar Edwards LSU

None
Wes Horton USC
Devin Taylor South Carolina
Craig Roh Michigan
Malliciah Goodman Clemson
Datone Jones UCLA
Brad Madison Missouri

None might not mean no fit at all as much as it means it's a way better fit for a 4-3 team and I think they would value the selection of that player a lot more compared to a 3-4. I don't think a 3-4 team will take them


No mention of Mingo/Jones? I figured they were obvious, but you didn't mention them.

Roh is bulking up to be a 5T this year for Michigan. He's getting up to 280+ so i think he could be a DE in the 34.
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JustisM


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Duffman57 wrote:
No mention of Mingo/Jones? I figured they were obvious, but you didn't mention them.

Roh is bulking up to be a 5T this year for Michigan. He's getting up to 280+ so i think he could be a DE in the 34.


Both of them are listed as OLBs on CBS Sports and I only did DEs and DTs that were in the top 200. I'll probably do the OLB/ILBs at some point too. If Roh is gaining some weight then he could fit in the 3-4 but I don't like him right now for the fit.

EDIT: Also I love me some Jones. One of the best pass rushers I have ever seen
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great work so far but E.J. Manuel compares Jake Locker? Laughing Not even close.
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