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2012 Official Prospect Thread - Hamilton >> Usain Bolt
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kgarrett12486

Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Posts: 7643
Location: Busch III

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:21 pm Post subject:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

I'm gonna be fairly bored at work this afternoon and feel like talking prospects. Anybody wanna ask about what I think about prospect X?

I'd like to get an outside view on SP Michael Wacha, if you got the time...
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Dr. Philly

Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 22875

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

Dr. Philly wrote:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

I'm gonna be fairly bored at work this afternoon and feel like talking prospects. Anybody wanna ask about what I think about prospect X?

Just to get it started, a top 20:
1. Jurickson Profar
2. Oscar Taveras
3. Dylan Bundy
4. Taijuan Walker
5. Wil Myers
6. Francisco Lindor
7. Jose Fernandez
8. Shelby Miller
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gerri Cole
11. Trevor Bauer
12. Zack Wheeler
13. Nick Casellanos
14. Mike Zunino
15. Javier Baez
16. Tyler Skaggs
17. Miguel Sano
18. Travis d'Arnaud
19. Archie Bradley
20. Byron Buxton
HM: Jameson Taillon

See Miller worked his stock back up.

I never bought him dropping in the first place. He's still got basically everything you look for in a #1. He's a physical, good athlete, great size, 70 FB, 60+ breaking ball, flirting with a changeup, and developing a profile for control/command.

The reasons for dropping him and the off the field stuff is stupid.

Makes sense really.
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ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject:

John232 wrote:

green24 wrote:

John232 wrote:

It hurts me in the heart to see Zac Wheeler in the top 15....*sigh*

It doesn't hurt me. Twisted Evil

Then again, you have a World Series to enjoy right now.

That Beltran had absolutely no hand in.

I hate how Brian Sabean works sometimes...but then again....We have a ring and were playing for another one right now. Sooooo yeah.

You also drafted Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Zack Wheeler, and Madison Bumgarner.

While it sucks you traded Wheeler away, there's something to be said for being able to acquire all that pitching in the first place.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:24 pm Post subject:

kgarrett12486 wrote:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

I'm gonna be fairly bored at work this afternoon and feel like talking prospects. Anybody wanna ask about what I think about prospect X?

I'd like to get an outside view on SP Michael Wacha, if you got the time...

He's got some polish, but I remember him as a 2 pitch pitcher with a 50 fastball.

I think most organizations stick him in the middle of their rotation, but the Cardinals are going to have to stick him behind Miller, Wainwright, Lynn, Rosenthal (though he's his own discussion), Martinez, and anybody else. He might end up as a trade piece or in the bullpen.

If he sticks as a starter, he's a #4 who gets grounders and eats innings.

EDIT: Not a bad draft pick, though. That report kind of sounds negative. He'll move quickly and pretty much be everything Jake Westbrook was in that rotation for $8 M cheaper.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

green24

Joined: 10 Apr 2010
Posts: 26589
Location: #GenoSith

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:37 pm Post subject:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

green24 wrote:

Bundy out of the top 2 and Taillon not in the top 20 are a bit surprising.

I'll start it off with a Mets question. Who is the best hitting prospect (Flores, Nimmo) and who is the second best pitching prospect (Fulmer, Familia) in the system? Zack Wheeler is obviously first and Matt Harvey would be second if he hadn't pitched over 50 MLB innings.

Who would you consider the best out of Rafael Montero, Domingo Tapia, and Aderlin Rodriguez?

Went back and forth on Bundy v Taveras for a while. What sold me was this. Oscar Taveras' AA debut had the following elements:

He was 20

He posted an ISO of .250

He had a walk rate of nearly 8%

He had a K rate of barely over 10%

That's just...crazy. Absolutely crazy.

Taillon was 21. Fastball isn't much more than a 65 - it's too straight. Good hitters will square it up, so I see more of a #2 than a #1/ace.

I like Nimmo over Florez, even though I actually typed it the other way. Nimmo has more power projection and the walks are really nice. There's substantial upside with him, but I think he ends up more above-average regular than star.

Of the rest of the guys, I like Tapia. He gets ragged on for his crappy secondary stuff, but guys who have 95+ mph fastballs with run can figure the rest out. His secondary stuff if always going to play up.

I think Nimmo probably ends up as a Paul O'Neill type player with a Grady Sizemore (healthy version) ceiling. Nimmo has the make of a potential 5 tool player. His walk rate (14.3%) is very high, especially for such a young player with so little experience.

What do you think about the Mets second pick in the 2011 draft, Michael Fulmer? He had a very impressive season as a 19 year old in the SAL. I think he profiles as a future #3 starter.
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Last edited by green24 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:40 pm Post subject:

green24 wrote:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

green24 wrote:

Went back and forth on Bundy v Taveras for a while. What sold me was this. Oscar Taveras' AA debut had the following elements:

He was 20

He posted an ISO of .250

He had a walk rate of nearly 8%

Grady Sizemore was a toolshed. Nimmo isn't there in terms of raw ability. Sizemore was a better athlete, presumably a fairly substantial better defender, and a ridiculous offensive player.

I do like the walk rate though.

You're a little aggressive on Fulmer. Low 90's fastball and below average secondary stuff, IMO. I see an innings eater who is a back end of the rotation type guy. Maybe if he cuts his fastball effectively or gets another tick or two of velocity, I'd think he could be a 3, but right now he doesn't have an offering better than a 50.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

green24

Joined: 10 Apr 2010
Posts: 26589
Location: #GenoSith

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:51 pm Post subject:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

green24 wrote:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

green24 wrote:

Went back and forth on Bundy v Taveras for a while. What sold me was this. Oscar Taveras' AA debut had the following elements:

He was 20

He posted an ISO of .250

He had a walk rate of nearly 8%

I think Fulmer throws a little harder than that. He normally sat around 93-95 while occasionally hitting 96 or 97. His slider improved a lot this year.
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ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:53 pm Post subject:

green24 wrote:

I think Fulmer throws a little harder than that. He normally sat around 93-95 while occasionally hitting 96 or 97. His slider improved a lot this year.

Haven't heard him anywhere near that. I've heard he touched 95 once or twice, but nothing beyond.

If that's the case, then his ceiling gets a considerable bump. But I have a feeling that's 1 crazy-juiced radar gun and a whole lot of optimistic Mets fans.
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Title Town USA wrote:

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BrownieTheElf

Joined: 07 Jan 2006
Posts: 7677
Location: Erie, PA

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject:

In my opinion Fernandez>Walker.

How far off is it for you?
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hrubes20

Joined: 02 Jan 2006
Posts: 8637

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:55 pm Post subject:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

Oofta. That's way too rich on Lindor for me.

Edit: Should have elaborated a bit more. Not sold on his bat yet. Great glove, no doubt.
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ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:58 pm Post subject:

BrownieTheElf wrote:

In my opinion Fernandez>Walker.

How far off is it for you?

FUN question. Going to type a ton on this.

Fernandez had a ridiculous season. I love him as a prospect (his ranking reflects that, IMO). But the difference between the two is athleticism.

What do I mean? Walker isn't just projectable, he's OMG WTF projectable. He's 6'4", 200, a ridiculous athlete, and has more pure velocity than Fernandez. The thing is, there might actually be more than the 98 I've heard him at because his motion is so fluid and smooth, and his arm action is so pristine. You also have to like Walker's changeup substantially better because of this.

I'd say Walker could have 2 70's and a 65 offering down the line. If you said 80-70-70, I couldn't really disagree. We don't even know where his ceiling is right now. He's as projectable as you want him to be.

Fernandez is a little different story. He's 93-95 and can touch 97 with the fastball, so he's got the first 70 offering, but he's also 6'3", 215 with a little bit of a belly and not the same athleticism. I love his curveball and think he's got a 60 pitch there, but the changep and hodge-podge of other secondary offerings lag behind. In addition, he's going to not quite have the raw ability to repeat his delivery like Walker will, simply because of the extra wright and lack of athleticism, meaning command could be an issue.

Fernandez overpowered hitters with raw stuff and effective wildness this year. I think he'll come back to earth a little bit as he goes up the ladder.

They are each number 1's though.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:00 pm Post subject:

hrubes20 wrote:

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

Oofta. That's way too rich on Lindor for me.

Edit: Should have elaborated a bit more. Not sold on his bat yet. Great glove, no doubt.

He's a GG shortstop, so even if he's league average offensively, he's a 4 win player (0 + 5-10 defensive runs + 5 or so baserunning runs + 20 replacement adjustment + 7.5 for positional adjustment).

But I like the bat. For him to put up league average numbers in the MWL is really impressive at 18, and his walk rate of 10% is even more enticing from a young guy. I see .280, tons of doubles, .360 OBP, and more slugging than you might think due to the doubles.

He's a 4 tool guy, but I love him.

EDIT: I also want to point out how quickly his skillset has picked up. He's still super young, but could see the bigs at 20. I see a lot of Elvis Andrus in him.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:04 pm Post subject:

Brownie, I didn't really answer the question 'how far off is it'.

Anywho, there is a drop off after Bundy and Walker, so kind of wrong. The next 3-5 guys are all jumbled together.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

BrownieTheElf

Joined: 07 Jan 2006
Posts: 7677
Location: Erie, PA

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:07 pm Post subject:

It all good. I like the response.

Give us the "I Told Ya So" pick for prospect that jumps off charts. I got 2. Don't want to say names just because I'm in a middle of a prospect draft with 2 members.
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ramssuperbowl99

Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 17837

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:10 pm Post subject:

BrownieTheElf wrote:

Luis Sardinas, Rangers SS. Apparently he can pick it and can hit a little bit, which means he's a potential star at SS.

That's almost not fair.

Aaron Sanchez on the Blue Jays is my other one, but if everyone already knows about him then I'll think of some more.

EDIT: HOMER ALERT - Clint Coulter might be on this list. I've heard positives that he's a catcher long term, and he walked at a clip of 17% to an 18% K rate in rookie ball after only 40 ABs as a senior in high school. He'll likely start in A ball next year, and could break out a fair bit if the defense is there behind the dish.

Robert Stephenson might be another. That kid could go beast mode next year.
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Title Town USA wrote:

Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.

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