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Could we give up 79+ sacks in 2012?
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JohnnyV


Joined: 04 Jan 2008
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Location: Chicago, Illinois
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:58 am    Post subject: Could we give up 79+ sacks in 2012? Reply with quote

The team record for most sacks allowed in a season is 78 which was set back in 1997. That also happens to be the second most all time behind Philly with 104.

Could this group with this schedule give up 79 sacks or more come 2012?

Lets analyze this shall we. The Cardinals, as a team, gave up 54 in 2011, which was second most in the league.

This year, the team faces a much tougher schedule that features dominate pass rushers nearly every week. Check out this list compiled by Mike Sando…

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/72147/cards-schedule-serves-up-top-pass-rushers

Levi Brown, arguably one of the worst pass blocking OT in football is out for the season, but his replacement shouldn’t fair much better no matter who is manning LT. Remember, Levi did play better done the stretch last season following his horrific first half.

Adam Snyder has been brought in for the incumbent Rex Hadnot, but according to multiple sources, Snyder could be the worst pass protecting guard in football.
RT doesn’t appear to be much better, at least in the short team. Sure, Bobbie Massie may eventually develop into a quality starter at the position, but in the mean time, he’ll likely take his lumps rotating in an evolving door that consists of Jeremy Bridges and D’Anthony Batiste.

The likely decision to start John Skelton for 16 games should help aid the total, however, Skelton still can be prone to give up the occasional safety.

An injury to the 3rd year player and Kevin Kolb is thrown right back to the wolves where he goes down for negative yards like it’s his job.

Now running the football, and doing it effectively would limit passing attempts, and it would make sense to run the ball more often with the uncertainty at quarterback and the additional of Ryan Williams. Then again, this fan base has heard this group promise to run the ball more for the past 2 seasons, and there we are close to dead last in yards per game rushing.

Why should this year be any different, especially with Brown now lost for the season?

So with all of these factors to consider, is it possible that we are looking at a historic season for this embarrassment of an offensive unit?
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most of this is either incorrect or just overzealous worry. I'll repeat my previous statements, the run game/run blocking is now the worry. The pass game/blocking won't be any different than it was last season.
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iRobot


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gonna have to agree with Champ.

The pass blocking production won't fall off too much. Granted Levi had turned a corner but that's not the Levi we are used to. Everyone is used to the Levi that gives up QB pressure after pressure every 8 or so pass plays.

Snyder has looked good at times and I would say he is an upgrade over an aging Hadnot. Bridges may eventually be an "upgrade" over Snyder at RG.

If Kolb was behind center, we may have a lot more sacks than last season. Skelton has a tendency to break tackles and get out of the pocket in a much smarter or more athletic fashion. I think if Skelton is behind center, we may have the same amount of sacks, or maybe less.. I don't think we'll set a record.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
Most of this is either incorrect or just overzealous worry. I'll repeat my previous statements, the run game/run blocking is now the worry. The pass game/blocking won't be any different than it was last season.


So you expect whomever takes over for Levi to put up quality snaps in the passing game?

Levi gave up 10 sacks in the first 10 games. He gave up only 1 in the final 6 games.

I think it's fair to assume whomever we find in the scrap heap will probably give up at least 11 sacks.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skelton was sacked 23 times last year, while Kolb was sacked 30 times.

Kolb played in 9 games, while Skelton played in 8.

The difference in sacks per player isn't as wide of a gap as one would assume.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyV wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Most of this is either incorrect or just overzealous worry. I'll repeat my previous statements, the run game/run blocking is now the worry. The pass game/blocking won't be any different than it was last season.


So you expect whomever takes over for Levi to put up quality snaps in the passing game?

Levi gave up 10 sacks in the first 10 games. He gave up only 1 in the final 6 games.

I think it's fair to assume whomever we find in the scrap heap will probably give up at least 11 sacks.


To heck with 11, give whoever replaces Levi 20 sacks allowed. Make it that bad, make it 20. That's an increase of 9 more sacks allowed, which would give us roughly 63 sacks allowed for an entire season (Assuming both quarterbacks get starts and both stay at their current sacks allowed per pass attempt averages). You still need 16 more sacks to get to 79.

Show me where those are gonna come from.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyV wrote:
Skelton was sacked 23 times last year, while Kolb was sacked 30 times.

Kolb played in 9 games, while Skelton played in 8.

The difference in sacks per player isn't as wide of a gap as one would assume.


That's another part that's incorrect. And I say this as a guy who continually supports Kevin Kolb despite the amount of hate he gets.

Skelton's sacked approximately 11.9 times per pass attempt. Kolb is sacked approximately 8.5 times per pass attempt. Over 530 pass attempts (Which is easily where we're gonna sit), that's a difference of nearly 18 sacks over the course of a 16 game season give or take 1-2 sacks.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
JohnnyV wrote:
stchamp98 wrote:
Most of this is either incorrect or just overzealous worry. I'll repeat my previous statements, the run game/run blocking is now the worry. The pass game/blocking won't be any different than it was last season.


So you expect whomever takes over for Levi to put up quality snaps in the passing game?

Levi gave up 10 sacks in the first 10 games. He gave up only 1 in the final 6 games.

I think it's fair to assume whomever we find in the scrap heap will probably give up at least 11 sacks.


To heck with 11, give whoever replaces Levi 20 sacks allowed. Make it that bad, make it 20. That's an increase of 9 more sacks allowed, which would give us roughly 63 sacks allowed for an entire season (Assuming both quarterbacks get starts and both stay at their current sacks allowed per pass attempt averages). You still need 16 more sacks to get to 79.

Show me where those are gonna come from.


Adam Snyder, as a pass protector in his 7 year career, as given up on average 5.14 per season. That includes an 3 year span from 07-09 where he gave up close to 9 per season.

Rex Hadnot has never given up more than 3 in a season.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's 2. You've got 14 more sacks to find.

And this is with me throwing out a completely absurd, arbitrary number of 20 sacks allowed for our left tackle.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bridges and Keith combined for 13.5 sacks last year.

Bridges tallied 6.50 in spot duty.

Bobbie Massie, our future at RT, couldn't beat Jeremy Bridges out in camp.

D'Anthony Batiste is now starting. You of all people have voiced your opinion on Batiste and his ability over a 16 game season.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyV wrote:
Bridges and Keith combined for 13.5 sacks last year.

Bridges tallied 6.50 in spot duty.

Bobbie Massie, our future at RT, couldn't beat Jeremy Bridges out in camp.

D'Anthony Batiste is now starting. You of all people have voiced your opinion on Batiste and his ability over a 16 game season.


So a combination of Bridges and Massie is 14 sacks worse than a combination of Brandon Keith and Bobbie Massie? Color me unconvinced but I'll play along anyway, how much worse are they? Are they 14 (Would would be a total of 27.5 sacks allowed) sacks worse?

D'Anthony Batiste may start at LT. And he's part of the 20 sacks, which is again a ridiculously unrealistic, arbitrary number, that I threw out.

You're still 14 short.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stchamp98 wrote:
JohnnyV wrote:
Bridges and Keith combined for 13.5 sacks last year.

Bridges tallied 6.50 in spot duty.

Bobbie Massie, our future at RT, couldn't beat Jeremy Bridges out in camp.

D'Anthony Batiste is now starting. You of all people have voiced your opinion on Batiste and his ability over a 16 game season.


So a combination of Bridges and Massie is 14 sacks worse than a combination of Brandon Keith and Bobbie Massie? Color me unconvinced but I'll play along anyway, how much worse are they? Are they 14 (Would would be a total of 27.5 sacks allowed) sacks worse?

D'Anthony Batiste may start at LT. And he's part of the 20 sacks, which is again a ridiculously unrealistic, arbitrary number, that I threw out.

You're still 14 short.


Each TE will give up at least one sacks.

Heap
Housler
Dray
King

As will each RB

Wells
Williams
LSH
Sherman

Lyles career number given up each season is around 2.

Colledge career number given up each season is around 5.
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JohnnyV


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We may not get to 79 but I don't think we as far off as you have suggested.

70 is certaintly not out of the relm of possibility.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of which are numbers that were reflected last season. Lyle giving up 2 and Colledge giving up 5, our backs and TE's making mistakes, those are not additional numbers. Those are baseline numbers that are directly pulled from last season's play.

You still owe me 14 sacks.
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stchamp98


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyV wrote:
We may not get to 79 but I don't think we as far off as you have suggested.

70 is certaintly not out of the relm of possibility.


Yes it is. I gave you 9 sacks out of the clear blue sky plus 2 additional sacks that Snyder may allow over what Rex Hadnot allowed last season and that only hits 65.

Forget 79, you're well short of 70. And again, that includes 9 sacks that I just pulled out of nowhere, based on absolutely nothing. AND it includes both of our quarterbacks playing with both of them taking sacks at last years rates.

Pass protection isn't any more of a worry now than it was last year. The run game should be your worry.
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