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Matt Schaub gets 4 year extension; Tim Jamison 2 year ex
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5458
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just catching up after being out of the country. Getting Schaub locked up at the 11th hour was a stroke of brilliance, folks. Simple fact is that the only thing holding us back from locking him up before now were fears about the foot lingering and those have been more than quelled over the past 2 months. While I understand people wanting to see Schaub prove it over a 17 week season and playoffs, but those people don't really understand that once you eliminate those doubts, Matty's leverage goes through the roof and you are looking at double the guaranteed money which is the important figure in these deals, not the total. $29 million guaranteed for a franchise QB is scale - nothing more, nothing less.

Peyton Manning's total deal is $96 million folks, he had 3 neck surgeries last year, is 5 years older than Schaub, and was last seen contributing 1 Td in a 2010 playoff loss. His deal is essentially an $18 million one year deal for 2012 with 2 voidable years at $20 million after that. Years 4 & 5 will never exist in anything but the press release. Mark Sanchez got a 5 year / $58.25 extension this offseason w/$20 million guaranteed for 2012 & 2013 and I don't think I'll have many people arguing about his relative skill.

At this point, there is practically nothing that would happen, even another freak injury that would have us moving on from Matt in 2013 so we have essentially created cap space by converting 2012 salary into guarantee with only $4.4 million salary in 2012 and $7.25 in 2013 and $17.5 million we spread over 5 years for the cap (only $3.5 mill cap hit per season). 2014-2016 get a little hairy with $10, $12.5, and $14.5 million salaries plus $1 million roster bonuses, but if you don't think a playoff QB is worth $13.5 in 2014 dollars you are dreaming and if he isn't a playoff QB by then we are out after 2013 with a $10.5 million hit which won't be pleasant but we took more than that in purging Winston, Ryans, and Jacoby this year so we'll survive.

The way I see it, once the Texans committed to ditch Winston and let Brisiel walk it was a forgone conclusion that Myers and D. Brown would be locked up as the two most important cogs on the line. Then it became a matter of whether Barwin or Schaub's market value faced the greatest potential for escalation by 2013 and a healthy playoff run by a QB could price Schaub out of our range or force major cuts like Antonio/Manning, etc. There are plenty of scenarios to toss around, but the Ravens might be more willing to throw Schaub $40 million guaranteed than Flacco if the latter falters in the playoffs and the Raiders with Knapp would kill for Schaub instead of Palmer and and always seem to find the cash/cap space under some rock. I don't think signing Schaub precludes Barwin returning and the structure actually makes it more likely, but regardless we still have the franchise tag ($9 mil-ish) at our disposal to throw around if we want one more season with Barwin before making Mercilus the centerpiece, but I still think he gets resigned long-term and for less than half of what Mario cost.
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