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Flacco's New Contract Discussion
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 7534
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FlaccoForever wrote:
That's exactly what I meant, good for Joe elite for Aaron. We will find out starting tonight if Joe can take the next step which of course is elite but he's going to get a really good contract at the end of the day.


Ah, I thought I read it with the implication that Flacco and Rodgers were on the same level. I'm not sure I would draw big conclusions from the game tonight but it will certainly be interesting if we can see the "new" Flacco that pretty much everybody has been talking about.

Like db424 I don't think the next level for Flacco is elite. Here's what my tiers look like:

Tier 1: Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rodgers

Tier 2: E. Manning, Roethlisberger

Tier 3: Rivers, Romo, Stafford

Tier 4: Cutler, Flacco, Ryan, Vick

Tier 5: Newton, Shaub, Smith

Tier 6: Bradford, Dalton, Freeman, Locker

After that it gets hazy. I know my tiers are kind of small but those are the distinctions I see between the QBs of the league. Tier 1 is self-explanatory. I only have E. Manning and Rothelisberger in Tier 2 because I don't think they're quite on the level of "elite" that the first four are but they're definitely above everybody else.

Tier 3 is where it gets tough but I'm comfortable with the three listed there. Ryan is right on the verge of moving up and Flacco might be too. I don't think Cutler and Vick have much room to grow. I don't ever see them as getting much better than they are now because of their playing styles although I do think they're good enough to win a Superbowl with the right talent around them.

Shaub is another guy that's almost in the next tier but I don't think he's quite there. Smith is an odd choice but he's really developed lately, no doubt aided by having a great defense but he's still playing well. Newton is a hard guy to place. I'm not a big fan of his as a QB but he's good enough at that combined with his ability to run that he should have a fairly good ranking. All of the players in Tier 5 have enough youth and potential to move up considerably.

And that brings me to where I think Flacco could move up to this season. For me it's easy - only up into Tier 3. There's not a huge distinction between Tiers 3 and 4 in my opinion but enough where I would feel more comfortable with hose guys at QB than anybody below them. Maybe Flacco can move to the top end of Tier 3 but I don't think he can reach the level of E. Manning or Roethlisberger. Yet. Two good seasons and a Superbowl or two would probably get him there. I didn't realize it when I made this list but all of the guys in Tier 1 and Tier 2 have at least one Superbowl win while nobody else on the list does and that definitely counts for something. I am expecting a couple of good seasons for Flacco, especially if the quicker offense works out, but it's hard to predict or expect a Superbowl victory. We can only hope. Pray
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patman


Joined: 02 Jan 2006
Posts: 996
Location: Tiverton RI
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flacco is a top 10 qb and has only played for 4 years. His skill set demands at least 6 years and 100 mill with 35mill in a SB. To compare what Schaub made as a 31 YO with an injury history and to equate that with Flacco is unreasonable. The only think the Ravens could do is tag him for a year at almost 17 mill.

Lewis and Reed's salary will be off the books soon and that will free up some long range money.
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wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 7056
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap Space shouldn't be a problem. Not only do Ray Lewis and Ed Reed's contracts expire, but Haloti Ngata gets paid $40 million of his $61 million contract in the first two years (this year and last year), so from this year to next year, there should be 8 figures of cap space created from that alone.
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Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
Posts: 22865
Location: Parkville, MD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm gonna predict a "Ravens" type contract -- lower than expected in terms of average yearly salary, but higher on guaranteed money (like Rice's deal).

I'm gonna go with 6 years, $92m ($15.3m/year), with $46m guaranteed. Includes a $30m signing bonus, and first 2 years salaries guaranteed. Breakdown as such:

2013: $8m salary, $5m SB
2014: $8m salary, $5m SB
2015: $9m salary, $5m SB
2016: $10m salary, $5m SB
2017: $13m salary, $5m SB
2018: $14m salary, $5m SB

---

How this ranks in terms of average salary (keep in mind when some of these guys signed -- Rodgers, Brady, Ben, etc all signed a few years ago, so their prices are a bit lower than market currently):

Brees - $20m
P. Manning - $19.2m
Vick - $16.7m
Brady - $15.7m
Flacco - $15.3m
E. Manning - $15.3m
Rivers - $14m
Ben - $12.75m
Romo - $11.2m
Rodgers - $10.8m
Cutler - $10m

How he ranks in terms of guaranteed money:

Brady - $48.5m
Flacco - $46m
Brees - $40m
Rivers - $38.15m
E. Manning - $35m
Ben - $33.2m
Vick - $32.5m
Romo - $30m
Cutler - $20m
Rodgers - $20m
P. Manning - $18m

--

So, while Flacco's yearly salary would currently rank about 5th, Rodgers is sure to jump him soon enough, likely Cutler as well, maybe Ben in a year or two, as well as Stafford. So while he'd be pretty high up upon signing, he'll slowly climb down the ladder as the others have which would pit us in a good position compared to many others. As well, the guranteed money would rank him 2nd which is a great bargaining chip.
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 9108
Location: MD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yea, I can see that. I think the Ravens do give a lot of 'fair' contracts in the sense that it's generally not the highest per-year number, but there's probably more 'real' money in there. Additionally, they don't end up puching a ton of money around to eek under the cap. I know some posters have complained about the FO not redoing deals all of the time like the Jets, but I actually think it speaks to our FO's ability to plan for future years, sign players to deals that work for them and for us, and our ability to balance present day success with building for the future.

I still think Flacco is going to be a $100M man. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders. He supposedly has much of his first contract money saved up still (banking that local pizza hut money, lol) and I don't know if he really would care about the "respect" angle of his deal. But I know I'd want to clear that 100M plateu to prove to everyone that laughed at me I'm the real deal.
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diamondbull424


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Joined: 02 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think first off we have to determine what the likely length of the contract for Flacco is going to be. And if we look at the history of the Ravens resigning their big name star players, you see six years tends to be the mode average of the length of contracts we hand out:

Ray Rice- 5 year deal
Lardarius Webb- 6 year extension
Haloti Ngata- 5 year deal
Terrell Suggs- 6 year deal
Ray Lewis- 7 year deal
Ed Reed- 6 year deal
Johnathan Ogden- 6 year extension

Then you have to consider the commitment that the Steelers made to divisional probowl QB, Big Ben, of eight years when he was a young successful QB. The way I see it, Flacco is young and proven to be a durable strong armed option that is ascending. The guys with big time arm strength tend to age well FTMP... Manning, Favre, heck even Carson Palmer still has his arm strength. So I'd look towards the Ravens giving Flacco a contract that he can walk away from the game with. 35 years old could be enough to call it quits. An extension would kick in for 2013... when Flacco is 28. So I'd say a seven year deal for Flacco is a strong possibility.

Now, considering the recent news that the Ravens offered $100m to Flacco over five years and he declined... I'm going to take that as agent releasing info to the press, since the Ravens usually keep things tight lipped. So assuming Flacco wants $20m a year (highest paid QB)... and assuming the Ravens probably start negotiations at a fair value of $12.7m (highest paid player on team)... halfway point in negotiations tell us $16.35m. Add in the additional leverage, Flacco's agent probably asks for more guaranteed money. Ravens probably negotiates slightly under mid-point. So all this considered, my gut tells me that Flacco signs:

Quote:
7 years, $113.75m ($16.25m avg), $46.9M guaranteed.
2013: Signing Bonus- $28M
2013: Roster Bonus- $4.9M
2014: Option Bonus- $14M


2013: Base Salary- $14.45M; Cap Hit- $18.45M
2014-2019: Base Salary- $9.55M; Cap Hit- $15.5M

That's my best guess as to what he might look to sign.
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FlaccoForever


Joined: 12 Jul 2011
Posts: 280
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
I think first off we have to determine what the likely length of the contract for Flacco is going to be. And if we look at the history of the Ravens resigning their big name star players, you see six years tends to be the mode average of the length of contracts we hand out:

Ray Rice- 5 year deal
Lardarius Webb- 6 year extension
Haloti Ngata- 5 year deal
Terrell Suggs- 6 year deal
Ray Lewis- 7 year deal
Ed Reed- 6 year deal
Johnathan Ogden- 6 year extension

Then you have to consider the commitment that the Steelers made to divisional probowl QB, Big Ben, of eight years when he was a young successful QB. The way I see it, Flacco is young and proven to be a durable strong armed option that is ascending. The guys with big time arm strength tend to age well FTMP... Manning, Favre, heck even Carson Palmer still has his arm strength. So I'd look towards the Ravens giving Flacco a contract that he can walk away from the game with. 35 years old could be enough to call it quits. An extension would kick in for 2013... when Flacco is 28. So I'd say a seven year deal for Flacco is a strong possibility.

Now, considering the recent news that the Ravens offered $100m to Flacco over five years and he declined... I'm going to take that as agent releasing info to the press, since the Ravens usually keep things tight lipped. So assuming Flacco wants $20m a year (highest paid QB)... and assuming the Ravens probably start negotiations at a fair value of $12.7m (highest paid player on team)... halfway point in negotiations tell us $16.35m. Add in the additional leverage, Flacco's agent probably asks for more guaranteed money. Ravens probably negotiates slightly under mid-point. So all this considered, my gut tells me that Flacco signs:

Quote:
7 years, $113.75m ($16.25m avg), $46.9M guaranteed.
2013: Signing Bonus- $28M
2013: Roster Bonus- $4.9M
2014: Option Bonus- $14M


2013: Base Salary- $14.45M; Cap Hit- $18.45M
2014-2019: Base Salary- $9.55M; Cap Hit- $15.5M

That's my best guess as to what he might look to sign.


I like the structure of that contract and I believe those are accurate numbers. I don't know if Joe's contract will look like that if he and the Ravens wait until after the season to finalize things but you are in the right ballpark as it relates to how Joe's contract could look like.
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