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Did Ron Rivera make the correct decision against Atlanta?
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Did Ron Rivera make the right decision?
Yes
59%
 59%  [ 32 ]
No
40%
 40%  [ 22 ]
Total Votes : 54

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Finnerception


Joined: 24 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:22 pm    Post subject: Did Ron Rivera make the correct decision against Atlanta? Reply with quote

Disagree with what many are saying on this, what are the thoughts on here? Obviously you don't know the ball is going to be pinned at the 1 or the defense is going to have a complete meltdown.

My take: You put faith in your punter to not shank the punt, put faith in the defense to not crap the bed in under a minute. If you don't get the conversion, which is a good possibility since Atlanta knows what's coming, you give them the ball within 10 yards of FG range and plenty of time to get the short yardage.
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Steelerspower


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes, because there remained 60 seconds and the falcons had no timeout

The defense of the panthers deserve to be blamed
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GaTechRavens


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have absolutely no reason to put faith in the Panthers defense.

Go for the likely 1st down with your dominant rushing attack, seal the win, breathe easy. Even if it doesn't convert, your defense is going to make up for the 40 yards anyway.
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eaglesfan10


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have a 6 foot 6 inch 250 pound quarter back and you don't at least QB Sneak it...

I think he made the wrong decision.
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BlaqOptic


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eaglesfan10 wrote:
You have a 6 foot 6 inch 250 pound quarter back and the best center in the NFL and you don't at least QB Sneak it...

I think he made the wrong decision.


This... No excuse to not try a QB plunge and officially ice the game there. Because regardless if you fail the way your defense is playing Atlanta is probably going to get into FG range.
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Harper41


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course he made the right call. He pinned the Falcons in there own 10 yard line. The Panthers secondary let Roddy White get behind them in what I'm assuming was a deep zone coverage, that's the first rule of being a safety, DONT LET ANYONE GET BEHIND YOU.
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Finnerception


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GaTechRavens wrote:
I have absolutely no reason to put faith in the Panthers defense.

Go for the likely 1st down with your dominant rushing attack, seal the win, breathe easy. Even if it doesn't convert, your defense is going to make up for the 40 yards anyway.


The Panthers defense gave up 3 points in Atlanta's 4 previous drives.
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Steelerspower


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finnerception wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:
I have absolutely no reason to put faith in the Panthers defense.

Go for the likely 1st down with your dominant rushing attack, seal the win, breathe easy. Even if it doesn't convert, your defense is going to make up for the 40 yards anyway.


The Panthers defense gave up 3 points in Atlanta's 4 previous drives.


And the panthers had 7 sacks
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GaTechRavens


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finnerception wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:
I have absolutely no reason to put faith in the Panthers defense.

Go for the likely 1st down with your dominant rushing attack, seal the win, breathe easy. Even if it doesn't convert, your defense is going to make up for the 40 yards anyway.


The Panthers defense gave up 3 points in Atlanta's 4 previous drives.


And there was no reason to expect that to be anything other than a fluke. Carolina's defense, over a sufficient sample size, is putrid. I read somewhere that the Panthers are 21 for 24 in 4th and 1 situations with Cam Newton. There's a stat I can believe in.
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OneBadCat


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a Panthers fan I understand the call. However it would have done wonders for the team to go for it and convert. It wouldn't be a just a win, it would be a huge boost in confidence and momentum.

I knew damn well that we would not stop the Falcons if they got the ball back. They were pinned on the 1 yards line and still didn't stop them. Nakamura sucks blew that game. However anyone watching Panther football know that we can't stop anyone on 3rd down. It doesn't matter if it's 3rd and 20, they'll get a 21 yd gain.

Yes we had 7 sacks but we also gave up 100+ to Michael Turner who was a non factor until yesterday.

If White doesn't make that catch, the Falcons still probably go deep and get a BS pass interference call. The ballsy move was to go for it and I think it was what the Panthers needed.
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Finnerception


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GaTechRavens wrote:

And there was no reason to expect that to be anything other than a fluke. Carolina's defense, over a sufficient sample size, is putrid. I read somewhere that the Panthers are 21 for 24 in 4th and 1 situations with Cam Newton. There's a stat I can believe in.


So shutting down a team for the previous 25 minutes of the same game isn't a sufficient sample size, but results based on a different game are? You expect any NFL defense to not give up a 60 yard pass in a prevent situation.
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GaTechRavens


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finnerception wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:

And there was no reason to expect that to be anything other than a fluke. Carolina's defense, over a sufficient sample size, is putrid. I read somewhere that the Panthers are 21 for 24 in 4th and 1 situations with Cam Newton. There's a stat I can believe in.


So shutting down a team for the previous 25 minutes of the same game isn't a sufficient sample size, but results based on a different game are? You expect any NFL defense to not give up a 60 yard pass in a prevent situation.


Um, yes. It's been proven over time that Carolina has a great running game. The idea that their defense was a nightmare for Atlanta was not, and wasn't even the case for much of the game.

And if I "expect" a defense to come through there based on a cliche, I certainly expect the offense to get one measly yard, no?

Simple question: which choice gives your team a better chance of winning? Every bit of statistical analysis out there says it's going for it on 4th down, and that it's not even close. I think ESPN said Carolina's chances went down by over 25% after deciding to punt.
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teamorange


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course it was a wrong decision and everyone knew he was going to make it. He made the choice that was the least controversial and paid the price for it. You have the biggest most athletic QB in the league and you don't try and run it? I didn't watch it but did he at least try and draw them offsides and call a time out and kick it?
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No.

Since 2001, teams who ran the ball on 4th and 1 in the 4th quarter with a lead between the 40 and 50 yd line converted on 71.9% of those attempts.

When Carolina chose to punt the ball, their odds of winning dropped from 83.5% to 57.4%, and that isn't even accounting for how good either teams were in this case.

And let's consider that Carolina also arguably has one of the best power run games in the business. Why would they spend so much $$ to lock up two RBs if they aren't even going to use them in a situation like this? If they didn't trust their run game to pick up one yard with the game on the line, then why'd they shell out all that money to Williams and Stewart?

Don't get how you can argue that Rivera made the right call.
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Finnerception


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GaTechRavens wrote:

Um, yes. It's been proven over time that Carolina has a great running game. The idea that their defense was a nightmare for Atlanta was not, and wasn't even the case for much of the game.

And if I "expect" a defense to come through there based on a cliche, I certainly expect the offense to get one measly yard, no?

Simple question: which choice gives your team a better chance of winning? Every bit of statistical analysis out there says it's going for it on 4th down, and that it's not even close. I think ESPN said Carolina's chances went down by over 25% after deciding to punt.


ESPN's stats say Cam is 4-5 on 4th and 1. So you're going off of a much, much smaller sample size than you mentioned.

One yard isn't measly when all 11 guys on the defense know where the ball is going. It's a massive risk. Conventional wisdom says to make them go 50-65 yards to get into FG range rather than 10-15 when there's a minute left and they only have a timeout. The hotter hand was the defense that was holding Atlanta in the 2nd half, not the QB that just fumbled.
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