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Did Ron Rivera make the correct decision against Atlanta?
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Did Ron Rivera make the right decision?
Yes
59%
 59%  [ 32 ]
No
40%
 40%  [ 22 ]
Total Votes : 54

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Babylon


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
Posts: 1354
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was a terrible decision.

They have the best or at least one of, rushing quarterbacks in the NFL. They have a pair of running backs paid incredibly well. They have a good run blocking line, manned by one of the best centers in the league in Kalil. They had just converted 3rd and 2 except for a rare fumble setting up the 4th and one.

On defense they were one of the worst units last year, and were starting a 5th round rookie at CB and a godawful UDFA safety, against a dude who's playing like the presumptive MVP so far this season. Oh, AND they had given up at least two long passing touchdowns already in that game.

Everything screamed go for it, they got stupidly lucky to down it at the one, and still gave it up.
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CarolinaRoar


Joined: 22 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cam would have fumbled
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TheSphinx


Joined: 22 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thread is a good example of why I am weary when people provide me stats without context. Sure the math will say that on average you should do XYZ but that doesn't take into account the actual circumstances in the game being played. If your defense seems to have the offenses' number that game then it might be a smarter decision to hand it over to your defense. If your offense hasn't been moving the ball as well as you would like or if they haven't been good in short yardage situations in that game then you might want to avoid that situation. There are many reasons why the odds in a particular game may not be similar to the historical odds. Anytime you are evaluating a decision where the most recent actions have an impact on the outcome of this action (unlike the results of flipping a coin for example where the previous result has no impact on this result) you have to give weight to what is happening in the moment just as much, if not more so, than what happened in the past.

I didn't watch the game so I don't know if any of those caveats are relevant but to just say "history says that XYZ play will be successful this much and another play will only be successful that much so that is all you need to know to make your decision" is very short-sighted in my opinion.

Once again I don't know if there were any mitigating factors that made the coach decide to punt the ball vs. go for it and it could very well have been a bad decision but it wasn't bad solely because the historical stats said it was bad.

-TS
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wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheSphinx wrote:
This thread is a good example of why I am weary when people provide me stats without context. Sure the math will say that on average you should do XYZ but that doesn't take into account the actual circumstances in the game being played. If your defense seems to have the offenses' number that game then it might be a smarter decision to hand it over to your defense. If your offense hasn't been moving the ball as well as you would like or if they haven't been good in short yardage situations in that game then you might want to avoid that situation. There are many reasons why the odds in a particular game may not be similar to the historical odds. Anytime you are evaluating a decision where the most recent actions have an impact on the outcome of this action (unlike the results of flipping a coin for example where the previous result has no impact on this result) you have to give weight to what is happening in the moment just as much, if not more so, than what happened in the past.

I didn't watch the game so I don't know if any of those caveats are relevant but to just say "history says that XYZ play will be successful this much and another play will only be successful that much so that is all you need to know to make your decision" is very short-sighted in my opinion.

Once again I don't know if there were any mitigating factors that made the coach decide to punt the ball vs. go for it and it could very well have been a bad decision but it wasn't bad solely because the historical stats said it was bad.

-TS


The problem is that all the "context" makes the statistically favored option (going for it on 4th down) even stronger. The Panthers' elite rushing offense vs the Falcons' not so great front 7 OR the Panthers' terrible secondary vs the Falcons' explosive receivers + a QB who is great in these situations, especially at home.

The statistics suggest that going for it was the right choice for any random team against any other random team. The "context" should have made it a no-brainer.
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BlackandBlue


Joined: 01 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People defening the decision:

Even putting aside the stats, do you truly, in your heart of hearts, believe that the chance of the Panthers D stopping Matt Ryan from marching down the field for a field goal was greater than the that of the Panthers offense converting? Because I don't see that. At all.
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baconrad3


Joined: 27 Apr 2010
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Location: Tempe, AZ
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheSphinx wrote:
This thread is a good example of why I am weary when people provide me stats without context. Sure the math will say that on average you should do XYZ but that doesn't take into account the actual circumstances in the game being played. If your defense seems to have the offenses' number that game then it might be a smarter decision to hand it over to your defense. If your offense hasn't been moving the ball as well as you would like or if they haven't been good in short yardage situations in that game then you might want to avoid that situation. There are many reasons why the odds in a particular game may not be similar to the historical odds. Anytime you are evaluating a decision where the most recent actions have an impact on the outcome of this action (unlike the results of flipping a coin for example where the previous result has no impact on this result) you have to give weight to what is happening in the moment just as much, if not more so, than what happened in the past.

I didn't watch the game so I don't know if any of those caveats are relevant but to just say "history says that XYZ play will be successful this much and another play will only be successful that much so that is all you need to know to make your decision" is very short-sighted in my opinion.

Once again I don't know if there were any mitigating factors that made the coach decide to punt the ball vs. go for it and it could very well have been a bad decision but it wasn't bad solely because the historical stats said it was bad.

-TS


All meaningful statistics aside...given the circumstances...going for it was still pretty clearly the better option.

Wackywabbit seems to have pointed out why above.

Like he said...The Panthers have one of the best power run games in the league and have consistently been one of the best teams at converting on 3rd/4th and short by running the ball, whilst the Falcons' front 7 is actually weak.

Also, the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the league. Whereas the Falcons have one of the best, led by a QB playing at an MVP level.

It's a no-brainer.
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Zithers


Joined: 15 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BlackandBlue wrote:
People defening the decision:

Even putting aside the stats, do you truly, in your heart of hearts, believe that the chance of the Panthers D stopping Matt Ryan from marching down the field for a field goal was greater than the that of the Panthers offense converting? Because I don't see that. At all.


yes. we had plenty of negative runs on the day. the falcons defense is good. mike nolan is a good DC. everyone is keying in on cam and stopping him from going three feet wouldn't be anywhere near out of the question.

if we fail, atlanta only has to get one completion to win the game. if we punt, we make them have to complete a lot of passes to win. 60 yards at worst. in 60 seconds. with no timeouts. we had 7 sacks on the day. we wound up putting them into the worst position imaginable.

would be different if it were 4th and inches or if we were playing a team with a crappy offense. really not seeing why this is such a big deal. plus, if we failed, EVERYONE would completely flip flop and say OMG WHY DIDN'T THEY PUNT, IT WAS IN ATLANTA AND THEY HAD SEVEN SACKS ON THE DAY, THEY COULD HAVE STOPPED THEM.

so yeah. it was the right decision. haruki nakamura just screwed up very, very badly.
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iknowcool


Joined: 15 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was the right decision. We were facing conservative Matt Ryan, so I naturally assumed it would take a hell of a lot longer for them to move the ball down the field if we actually protected the sidelines. Ala, Ryan lobs some sorry pass up, our safety can't jump, and White snatches it. They damn near get into field goal range on one throw from the one yard line. It was the right decision at the time. But now knowing what we know now, that our defense is just unclutch and just that pathetic, we for sure better go for it in that situation next time.

I've always been interested in what people would do in these kind of situations though. Such as, say it was the Super Bowl. Obviously it is a completely different game with a lot more on the line and a lot more on risk but still. Say you're down by 3 points, 4th and goal at the 1 yard line and have a great/elite offense and below average defense. Do you go for the tie or do you go for the win?
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bbllstr22


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
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Location: Hell. The only place where the devil's advocate can reside.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://blogs.charlotte.com/panthers/2012/10/roddy-white-describes-atlantas-big-play.html

Just a little glance of the play from inside the Falcons huddle. Contrary to popular belief, the whole mindset behind the playcall on the Falcons side was for Ryan to throw a bomb to White and give him a chance on making a play. It was hardly a "sorry pass". It was this playcall out of a max protect set coupled with the bad defensive play being called, where Lina blitzed Gamble (a great physical cover corner) and relied on the shaky safety play with less prominent corners, that allowed the completion to occur. Often times people want to single out one aspect of the play that makes the success or failure of the play, but there are always several aspects involved.

The Good
-great protection by the offensive line
-great throw by Ryan in the end zone to give White a chance
-great concentration by White to haul in the deep throw
-great playcall by Koetter to take advantage of the Lina defense

The Bad
-horrible playcall by McDermott with an 8-man box blitz when the other team needs to drive 65 yards in a minute with no timeouts, taking your best corner out of the play
-poor coverage and play on the ball by Nakamura

Really the question should be, why on earth would McDermott call that play? You can't really lose between going for it on 4th and 1 with Newton or forcing the Falcons to start on their own 1 yardline... unless you call a poorly matched play for the situation on defense.

However, this could all have been avoided if "Superman" hadn't fumbled on the last offensive play.
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Zithers


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

it was zone and gamble's zone was empty since it was max protect. what was he supposed to do? stand there? no. you blitz if that happens. a good question though would be why he was on that side of the field covering harry douglas instead of julio/roddy.

by the way, carolina failed a 4th and 1 in the saints game. completely forgot about that until just now.
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J Pep 4 Step


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right call or wrong call, I knew we were doomed when Cam didn't convert on third down. I mean, I knew it. Game was over. Our team hasnt been able to seal a deal like that in a very long time.
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Frank Costello


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know I am late here, and I'm just reiterating what others have already said. But thinking about this play more and more, I can't believe they didn't go for it. The Panthers played lights out last Sunday and it's a shame one bad play call ultimately hurt their chances to win.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lol at the people here saying it was a "no-brainer". Obviously it's NOT a no-brainer since this thread is still alive Laughing
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