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johnson_cody_18


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:16 pm    Post subject: First Round Backed by Ratings Reply with quote

Used PFF to determine specific needs, and chose between BPA, and absolute need. Keep in mind, that this is more of a BPA/Need than personal want. Ratings are included for viewing purposes.

DRAFT

1. Jacksonville - QB GENO SMITH
2. Kansas City - QB MATT BARKLEY
3. Cleveland - LB JARVIS JONES
4. Oakland - DT STAR LOTULELEI
5. Carolina - DT JOHNATHON HANKINS
6. Indianapolis - DE SAM MONTGOMERY
7. Buffalo - QB TYLER WILSON
8. Tennessee - DE BARKEVIOUS MINGO
9. Tampa Bay - CB DEE MILLINER
10. Cincinnati - DE DAMONTRE MOORE
11. New York Jets - RB MARCUS LATTIMORE
12. St. Louis - LT LUKE JOECKEL
13. New Orleans - DE BJOERN WERNER
14. Dallas - NT JONATHAN JENKINS
15. San Diego - WR KEENAN ALLEN
16. Philadelphia - CB JOHNATHAN BANKS
17. Detroit - CB XAVIER RHODES
18. Arizona - LT TAYLOR LEWAN
19. Minnesota - LB MANTI TE'O
20. St. Louis - WR JUSTIN HUNTER
21. Miami - G CHANCE WARMACK
22. Baltimore - LB ALEC OGLETREE
23. Seattle - G/C BARRETT JONES
24. San Francisco - DT KAWANN SHORT
25. Pittsburgh - DE ALEX OKAFOR
26. Denver - LB CJ MOSLEY
27. Atlanta - RB JOSEPH RANDLE
28. Chicago - TE TYLER EIFERT
29. New England - DE COREY LEMONIER
30. Green Bay - DT SHELDON RICHARDSON
31. Houston - OT ODAY ABOUSHI
32. New York Giants - CB DAVID AMERSON


EXPLANATIONS

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia (6'3, 215lbs)

The Jaguars are a mess right now. Gabbert, even before the injury, looked terrible, and their defense wasn't nearly what it was a year ago. Geno Smith is their best bet at moving forward since I see Gene Smith getting fired at GM.

Needs: QB, OL, DL | Passing(-18.2), Pass Block(-19.4), Pass Rush (-13.7)
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2. Kansas City Chiefs - QB Matt Barkley, USC (6'2, 220lbs)

The Chiefs needs on defense cannot be overstated; they are terrible. Among the worst in pass coverage, and next to no pass rush. On the offense Cassel isn't getting it done, and the team is clearly losing faith in him. Barkley presents a new beginning for an up and coming team.

Needs: QB, DB, DL | Passing(-1.7), Pass Coverage(-15.4), Pass Rush(-8.4)
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3. Cleveland Browns - LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia (6'2 242lbs)

The Browns actually aren't as bad as their record indicates. They've had a few losses by just a few points, and could easily be 3-4. Brandon Weeden isn't playing well, but I can't imagine them drafting another QB yet. An obvious area of weakness is the pass rush. Browns are getting zero pass rush from the linebacker position, and Jarvis Jones should immediately help that.

Needs: LB, QB, DL | Pass Rush(-9.1), Passing(-12.6), Rush(1.9)
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4. Oakland Raiders - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah (6'4 325lbs)

The Raiders have one of the worst pass rushes in football right now. Tommy Kelly is terrible, and expect him to be cut. Contrary to popular belief, Carson Palmer is not the problem. His offensive line is 30th in pass blocking, and 29th in run blocking. Star Lotulelei is a rare breed of defensive tackle that could immediately change the face of that d-line. Raiders should be looking hard for some offensive line help though.

Needs: DL, OL, DB | Pass Rush(-22.9), Run Block(-20.5), Pass Block(-19.1)
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5. Carolina Panthers - DT Jonathon Hankins, Ohio State (6'4 325lbs)

The Panthers defense, again, are having a terrible year. Worst run defense in the NFL, and 3rd worst in pass coverage. They ignored DT last draft by taking Kuechly, and have to address it this time around. Jonathan Hankins isn't as quick as Lotulelei, but not many guys are. He'll immediately help the run game, and begin drawing double teams early in his career.

Needs: DL, DB, OL | Run Def(-28.7), Pass Coverage(-21.1), Run Block(-4.7)
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6. Indianapolis Colts - DE Sam Montgomery, LSU (6'4 260lbs)

Indianapolis seems to be heading in the right direction. Luck has been playing well, and the offense seems to be on its way, but the defense is struggling. Stopping the run has been a problem for them all season, and some help on the defensive line is needed. It was a tough decision between Mingo, and Montgomery, but Sam Montgomery is a more sound run stopper, and an effective pass rusher.

Needs: DL, WR, OL | Run Def(-24.0), Passing(-4.2), Run Block(-3.6)
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7. Buffalo Bills - QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas (6'3, 200lbs)

Remember coming into this season that the Bills were supposed to have the best defensive line in the NFL? Guess what, they're 30th in run defense. Marcel Dareus is playing terrible, Mario Williams isn't living up to the contract, and yet somehow, Kyle Williams remains one of the best DTs in the NFL. I'm sure they'll give them some time to mesh, but in the meanwhile they need to replace the 33rd ranked QB in the NFL.

Needs: QB, DL, OL | Passing(-15.2), Run Def(-22.7), Run Block(0.3)
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8. Tennessee Titans - DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU (6'4 245lbs)

The Titans are a very hard team to dissect. They resigned Michael Griffin to a 5-year/35M contract, and he's by far the worst safety in the NFL right now. I can't imagine they'll go safety this early, especially since they're locked into Griffin, so they need to add some depth behind Kamerion Wimbley and Derrick Morgan. BPA pick here.

Needs: DB, DL, RB | Pass Coverage(-22.7), Pass(-12.6), Run(-2.5)
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9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama (6'1 185lbs)

The Bucs could go a few different ways with this pick, but I think Milliner works. They don't need help at CB immediately, but Ronde Barber is getting old, and Eric Wright has been sub-par so far.

Needs: DL, LB, DB | Pass Rush(-12.9), Run Block (3.7), Pass Coverage(5.7)
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10. Cincinnati Bengals - DE/LB DaMontre Moore, Texas A&M (6'4 250lbs)

Surprise pick for some of you, but Moore has the makings of the next DeMarcus Ware. He JUST turned 20 years old, and is leading the NCAA in sacks with 9.5. Would not be surprised if by draft time, he's a top-5 pick. Was named to the mid-season All-American team, and in my opinion, is exactly what we need on our defense.

Needs: LB, OL, WR | Run Block(-13.7), Rush(-4.2), Pass Def(2.4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. New York Jets - RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina (6'0 218lbs)

The Jets front office will be looking to make excuses for Sanchez's poor play, and by adding a RB, they'll attempt to fix the problem. Lattimore has the potential to be an elite back, and the Jets offense is struggling. Perfect fit.

Needs: OL, LB, RB | Run Block(-25.7), Pass Rush(-25.5), Rush(-2.7)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12. St. Louis Rams - LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M (6'6 310lbs)

Earlier in the season, the Rams traded former #2 overall pick Jason Smith to NYJ for Wayne Hunter, seemingly to dump his salary. They're in need of a blindside protector, and Joeckel is the drafts best tackle. Rams are in good shape for the future.

Needs: OL, DB, WR | Pass Block(-11.2), Pass Coverage(1.0), Run Def(6.9)
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13. New Orleans Saints - DE Bjoern Werner, FSU (6'4 260lbs)

The entire Saints defense needs an overhaul. The defensive line isn't terrible, but the linebacker and defensive backs are awful. They are getting ZERO pass rush from the defensive line, and it's killing their defense. Werner is the BPA, and should add the ability to get to the QB.

Needs: LB, DB, DL | Pass rush(-29.0), Pass Coverage(-22.3), Run Def(-8.2)
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14. Dallas Cowboys - NT Jonathon Jenkins, Georgia (6'3 350lbs)

Who is the Cowboys' best offensive lineman right now? Nate Livings. While they should address the entire right side of the line within the draft, I believe they're looking for a nose tackle so they can move Ratliff outside. Jenkins is an absolute load, and can collapse the pocket.

Needs: DL, OL, DB | Pass Coverage(-3.1), Pass Block(-1.6), Run Block(1.5)
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15. San Diego Chargers - WR Keenan Allen, Cal (6'3 215lbs)

The San Diego Chargers were recently caught with stickum, and previous to that, their wide receivers weren't good anyways. That leads to me to give them a capable wide receiver, because if you're using stickum, and still can't catch a ball, you need a new receiver.

Needs: WR, DB, DL | Pash Rush(-9.1), Pass Coverage(-6.5), Rush(-5.5)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State (6'2 185lbs)

Crazy to think that the Eagles will be looking CB again, but it makes sense. Asomugha is due $15M next season, Rogers-Cromartie is a free agent, and they'll be looking to replace at least one of them. Safety is another option here, but I don't believe there are any safeties worth the #16 overall pick. Tackle is also a need right now, but Peters should be back before next season.

Needs: DB, LB, QB | Pass Block(-11.7), Rush(-3.5), Pass(9.3)
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17. Detroit Lions - CB Xavier Rhodes, FSU (6'2 215lbs)

Seems like every year the Lions are looking for secondary help. They have no one in the secondary that can tackle in run support, and Rhodes has the size and ability to be that guy.

Needs: DB, OL, LB | Run Def(-14.6), Pass Rush(-2.3), Pass(-2.7)
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18. Arizona Cardinals - LT Taylor Lewan, Michigan (6'8 302lbs)

Giving the Cardinals anything other than an offensive linemen would be just cruel. Their pass and run blocking total is a whopping -108.1 (Jacksonville is 2nd worst with -40.0) Not much to say here. No other choice.

Needs: OL, OL, OL | Pass Block(-66.3), Run Block(-31.7), Pass(-7.5)
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19. Minnesota Vikings - LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame (6'2 255lbs)

Little late off the board, but here he his. The Vikings defense is doing well, but there are still a few holes. Jasper Brinkley is playing awful in the middle, and I expect them to upgrade. I believe Te'o projects better as a 3-4 ILB anyways, so this makes a lot of sense.

Needs: LB, WR, DL | Rush(6.1), Pass(8.7)
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20. St. Louis Rams - WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee (6'4 200lbs)

Not too many holes in the St. Louis roster if the draft went like this. Fischer is doing a good job getting them back on track. Hunter gives Bradford another deep threat.

Needs: OL, DB, WR | Pass Block(-11.2), Pass Coverage(1.0), Run Def(6.9)
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21. Miami Dolphins - G Chance Warmack, Alabama (6'3 325lbs)

The Miami Dolphins are looking up, who would have thought? Warmack is a powerful run blocker that should open things up for both the running game, and the passing game.

Needs: OL, WR, DB | Run Block(-12.4), Pass Block(3.5), Rush(-4.1)
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22. Baltimore Ravens - LB Alex Ogletree, Georgia (6'3 240lbs)

With the recent injury of Ray Lewis, you have to assume he's nearly done. Even before the injury, he wasn't the old Ray. The Ravens will be looking for their next MLB, and Ogletree certainly looks the part.

Needs: DL, DB, LB | Pash Rush(-14.6), Run Def(-13.7), Pass Block(-3.0)
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23. Seattle Seahawks - OL Barrett Jones, Alabama (6'5 305lbs)

There's a lot to like about Barrett Jones. He's played all positions on the offensive line, and done them all very well. There are very few weaknesses to this Seattle team, but offensive line is one. Wherever Jones plays, he'll be an immediate factor.

Needs: OL, WR, TE | Pass Block(-5.3), Run Block(-1.1)
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24. San Francisco 49ers - DT Kawann Shorts, Purdue (6'3 310lbs)

The 49ers are in need of a NT, but Short is too much to pass up. I think he's definitely a top-20 player, with the potential to be a steal. Will probably be groomed behind Justin Smith.

Needs: DL, DB | Pass Rush(-1.5), Pass Coverage(6.2)
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25. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE Alex Okafor, Texas (6'4 265lbs)

The Steelers defense has been pretty bad this season by their standards. They're not getting any pass rush, and they've been getting beat everywhere. Putting Okafor at end should give them some pressure from the defensive line to open things up.

Needs: DL, LB, OL | Pass Rush(-24.7), Run Def(-9.7), Rush(-1.7)
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26. Denver Broncos - LB CJ Mosley, Alabama (6'2 235lbs)

Mosley will undoubtedly rise up boards, but this is where he falls right now. The Broncos defense is playing well, but their linebacker play has been pretty inconsistent. Good value here.

Needs: LB, DL, RB | Pass Rush(1.3), Pass Coverage(2.4), Rush(1.6)
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27. Atlanta Falcons - RB Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State (6'1 200lbs)

Not too many holes with Atlanta right now, but running back is one of them. Michael Turner is slowing down, and Jacquizz Rodgers isn't a feature back. Randle has the highest upside of any RB in this draft in my opinion.

Needs: RB, OL, DL | Run Def(-6.6), Rush(-4.7), Pass Block(1.2)
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28. Chicago Bears - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame (6'6 251lbs)

As usual, the Bears defense is killing it, but the offense could be better. The Bears haven't had a solid receiving tight end since they lost Greg Olsen to Carolina. Eifert should help Cry baby Cutler overcome his tears.

Needs: OL, TE, DL | Run Def(-2.1), Pass Block(-1.6)
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29. New England Patriots - DE Corey Lemonier, Auburn (6'4 250lbs)

The defensive line for the Patriots is getting zero pressure on the opposing quarterback. Chandler Jones is already their most productive pass rusher. Lemonier is a pass rush specialist to help the Pats turn their defense around.

Needs: DL, DB, WR | Pass Rush(-3.0), Pass Coverage(1.7)
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30. Green Bay Packers - DT Sheldon Richardson (6'4 295lbs)

The Packers defense has been struggling lately. They're getting no pass rush from the defensive line, and it's hurting them. Adding Richardson, who has the potential to be a very deadly pass rusher should help. Richardson is a late riser in my opinion because he compares favorably to Fletcher Cox. Packers are a Superbowl caliber team on offense, but the defense still has question marks.

Needs: DL, LB, OL | Run Block(-15.7), Pass Rush(-14.5), Rush(2.3)
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31. Houston Texans - Oday Aboushi, Virginia (6'6 310lbs)

The Texans remain are contender, but they're certainly missing right tackle Eric Winston. Current right tackle Derek Newton grades as their worst offensive player, and the Texans will want to get back to having the best line in the NFL. For an offense that relies so heavily on the run game, it's pivotal to have a good offensive line. Aboushi is a big body that holds up in pass protection, and should open holes up for the running game.

Needs: OL, LB, WR | Run Block(-1.4), Pass Block(2.5), Pass Rush(4.7)
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32. New York Giants - CB David Amerson, NC State (6'3 190lbs)

The Giants could go a few ways with this pick, but when you have a solid team like the Giants, you can afford to go BPA. The Giants need a good cover corner that can make big plays, and Amerson has the potential to be exactly that. Corey Webster has been getting torched this season, and although Amukamara has been playing well, you can never have too many good corners in the NFC East.

Needs: OL, DB, LB | Pass Coverage(-13.9), Pass Rush(-2.3), Rush(2.7) Cool
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ochocinco4pres


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a bad bengals pick. I think i would prefer Te'o
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Jason_Bengal_Fl


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can Moore play 4-3 OLB? We don't play 3-4 and don't have first round need for a DE.
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KCDiehard88


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quarterback is our top need. Cassel blows. Quinn is slightly better, but nothing worth writing home about and Stanzi is a former 5th round pick that hasn't gotten a chance to do anything. A QB has to be the pick and at this point I prefer Tyler Wilson over Matt Barkley.

As for the other needs. I disagree with the CB need to an extent. I think it is more safety play. Flowers is a stud at CB and Routt is holding his own at the #2 spot. Javier Arenas plays the nickel and is above average at it I would say. The trouble of our pass D comes from two different sources IMO. 1) Safety play. Eric Berry hasn't returned to normal yet following his ACL injury. He is having trouble covering and doesn't show the same explosion. Hopefully that will be fixed over time. Kendrick Lewis has been out of the lineup and although he is just above average, with him out it really hurts our pass D. He could be replaced fairly easily. 2) Our offense can't move the ball at all resulting in our D spending incredible amounts of time on the field. So the stats are a little skewed. Can there be improvements, absolutely, but it isn't as big of problem as PFF makes it sound.

Also with our Pass Rush it could use help. Behind Justin Houston there really hasn't been much this season. Tamba is still getting pressure, but hasn't been as effective as years past. IDK why and I do expect that to change. However behind them we have nothing and we need to address the pass rush.
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JDLefebvre


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't see the Steelers going DE 1st round 3 of last 5 years.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say coinflip for the Vikings whether they would go with T'eo or Hunter. Let's not pretend Michael Jenkins is doing any better at outside WR than Brinkley is at LB, in fact, Brinkley is playing better than Jenkins is, the Vikings need a couple of legitimate WR's, and while I would like to say we have something in Greg Childs, he seems injury prone and we really don't know, so WR is a huge need.

WR, OG, LB are probably the top needs, followed by DT (probably NT).
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:49 pm    Post subject: Re: First Round Backed by Ratings Reply with quote

johnson_cody_18 wrote:

15. San Diego Chargers - WR Keenan Allen, Cal (6'3 215lbs)

The San Diego Chargers were recently caught with stickum, and previous to that, their wide receivers weren't good anyways. That leads to me to give them a capable wide receiver, because if you're using stickum, and still can't catch a ball, you need a new receiver.

Needs: WR, DB, DL | Pash Rush(-9.1), Pass Coverage(-6.5), Rush(-5.5)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spoken like someone who is either blind or hasn't watched a Chargers game yet this season. Stickum or no stickum, the team had the 3rd lowest drop percentage in the league this year. The issue is guys aren't gaining separation and a good deal of that is because they're being deployed on long-developing routes and our OL can't keep Rivers clean for longer than a second or two past the snap (if that). The fact that you're listing DL as a need with OL not listed there completely kills any credibility you have in this mock. Our run defense has been among the better ones in the league, particularly our DL's metrics.

Based upon the model you're suggesting (i.e. BPA among positions of need) the pick is Warmack hands-down. That's a highly unlikely pick considering that AJ Smith has never once spent a 1st round pick on an OL (and the team hasn't done it since the 80's), but Warmack is the BPA at a position of need (both our starting OG's are FA's in 2013). Past that, Lewan's ceiling would vault him above the likes of Allen as a prospect and make him a greater BPA - discussing Allen shouldn't even be occurring since the team won't draft a 1st round (or any early round) WR given that Malcom Floyd (and if you think he's "not good anyways" your talent evaluation skills are pretty terrible) has been extended through 2015, Vincent Brown was a productive contributor and was to be heavily featured in this offense until he broke his ankle (you don't just ignore players on a roster because they happen to miss a portion of a season for injury) in the preseason this year, and there's enough money tied to Meachem and Royal for the next two years that they're not going to be given up on after only a season.

And this is of course ignoring that both our starting CB's are FA's in 2013, or that both of them have been sufficiently torched this season. If you're making a "need" based pick for the Chargers and picking any positions that are either CB or across the OL, you very obviously haven't been doing any kind of tape-study.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Colts run a 3-4. Montgomery would not be a DE, so he wouldnt be help on the DL as you say. You have WR as a need but don't list SS or OLB, which are much bigger needs. We won't go WR unless they're great value. Good pick anyway.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Nnamdi takes a paycut before leaving, and DRC is staying, no thanks to the CB, would prefer an OT.
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green24


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:46 pm    Post subject: Re: First Round Backed by Ratings Reply with quote

Wow. Very nice set-up. I like it. Applause

johnson_cody_18 wrote:
11. New York Jets - RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina (6'0 218lbs)

The Jets front office will be looking to make excuses for Sanchez's poor play, and by adding a RB, they'll attempt to fix the problem. Lattimore has the potential to be an elite back, and the Jets offense is struggling. Perfect fit.

Needs: OL, LB, RB | Run Block(-25.7), Pass Rush(-25.5), Rush(-2.7)

I don't really like drafting a RB in the first round, especially one with the injury and workload concerns that surround Lattimore. I think Bjoern Werner would be a better pick.
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KeithVikings28


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vikings run a 4-3 offense genius. Justin Hunter would be the pick.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice presentation.

Okafor doesn't fit at DE for the Steelers. Too small but he could possibly switch to OLB though. However, if safeties Eric Reid or T.J. McDonald are there I prefer them instead or CB Amerson. They need help in the secondary considering how old they are there.
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ttitansfan4life


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mingo is not the BPA. He's been pretty bad this season and he's way undersized. Werner should be the pick.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally would take Eifert, I also like Randle. Depends on if Tony decides to stick around longer or not..
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