The Race to #1

iPwn · Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:04 am Post subject: The Race to #1

So here we sit at 2-12, tied with the Chiefs.

After the win by the Raiders over the Chiefs, we have all but locked up a top two pick. For all intents and purposes, we will either finish with the #1 or #2 pick, with any other outcome almost impossible. This, barring a shocking upset against the Patriots next week.

Chiefs final two games
vs Indianapolis Colts
@ Denver Broncos

Chiefs opponents total record (all 16 games)
112-112 - .500 Strength of Schedule

Jaguars final two games
vs New England Patriots
@ Tennessee Titans

Jaguars opponents total record (all 16 games)
120-104 - .535 Strength of Schedule (if Jets win)
121-103 - .540 Strength of Schedule (if Titans win)

Because of the strength of schedule, the Chiefs would be winning the first round pick if things are to be how they are right now.

Most of us already understand what this means for us. To get the #1 pick, we will either have to lose out and have the Chiefs win a game, or we need the teams on our schedule to start losing games so that we end up with a lower Strength of Schedule. Seeing that we will need to make up either 4 or 4.5 (dependent on the results on Monday Night) each of the next two weeks, this might not be too likely.

So it would seem that the most likely scenario that would net us a first round pick is going to have to involve the Chiefs winning one of their next two games. This is where it gets tricky. As we can see, the Chiefs have two playoff teams. So all hope might be lost.

The only scenarios that are truly likely to net us the first pick
Currently, the Broncos hold a one game lead over the Patriots for the #2 seed, however the Patriots hold the tiebreaker against the Broncos if they finish with a similar record.

The Broncos play the Browns next week before playing to the Chiefs. If the Browns were to beat the Broncos, that would put the Patriots back in the #2 seed, where winning out would net them a Bye. Conversely, if the Patriots were to lose to the Dolphins in Week 17, and the Broncos beat the Browns in week 16, the Broncos would earn the #2 seed.

Both of these instances would be independent of the results of the Chiefs/Broncos game. Note: With the Broncos beating the Ravens today, they locked up a top 3 seed.

Lucky for us, in Week 17, the Patriots and Dolphins play at 1PM, and the Broncos/Chiefs game is at 4:15pm, meaning that if either of the above outcomes were to play out, the Broncos may find themselves with nothing to play for come game time. As we know, Peyton Manning has a history of sitting in week 17 when everything is locked up, so it is not wholly unlikely that we could see a backup Broncos team facing the Chiefs with the stake of the #1 pick on the line. In fact, if the Broncos were to find themselves in a situation where they had nothing to play for, you might just see them *cough*throw the game*cough* to screw over a division rival.

So go Chiefs and Browns! or Chiefs and Dolphins! Question

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The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley

Tugboat · Joined: 30 Mar 2011 Posts: 3235

If it's a race, i think we need some:

I saw it in a movie once. It will probably work i think...

Maybe...

Adrenaline_Flux · Joined: 19 Dec 2008 Posts: 20583 Location: The Iowa

What if...

Chiefs trade:

#1 overall pick

Jaguars trade:

#2 overall pick
QB Blaine Gabbert
DL Tyson Alualu (would fit well at 5T and would replace Glenn Dorsey who is leaving in FA and wasn't a good fit at 5T to begin with)

Is that anywhere near probable/fair/whatever the word should be or do I just need to go to sleep?
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Mr. V · Joined: 07 Sep 2011 Posts: 2697 Location: Atlanta

JaguarCrazy2832 · Joined: 28 Jun 2008 Posts: 82439

so basically there is no hope... Sad

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iPwn · Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:59 pm Post subject:

And CBS just screwed us out of the chance we had at the first pick. They moved the Pats/Fins game to 4:25, so there is no way the Broncos rest their starters.
_________________

- Best since day one -
The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley

iPwn · Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 12:56 am Post subject:

Chiefs SOS - .508 122-118
Jaguars SOS - .537 129-111

We made up 2 games on SOS, but it wasn't enough to get halfway there. Getting the #1 based on SOS isn't likely (it's probably impossible) at all at this point.
_________________

- Best since day one -
The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley

Adrenaline_Flux · Joined: 19 Dec 2008 Posts: 20583 Location: The Iowa

Tugboat · Joined: 30 Mar 2011 Posts: 3235

I honestly don't care much at this point. I'm more concerned with whether or not we go full-desperate and draft Geno Smith. I'm not sure how much it matters #1 or #2, as much as it depends on what both teams do at the draft.

iPwn · Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:44 am Post subject:

Adrenaline_Flux · Joined: 19 Dec 2008 Posts: 20583 Location: The Iowa

Tugboat · Joined: 30 Mar 2011 Posts: 3235

JaguarCrazy2832 · Joined: 28 Jun 2008 Posts: 82439

i doubt that KC loses
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Adrenaline_Flux · Joined: 19 Dec 2008 Posts: 20583 Location: The Iowa

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000116754/article/2013-nfl-draft-order-if-the-season-ended-today
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JaguarCrazy2832 · Joined: 28 Jun 2008 Posts: 82439

Come on Denver, sit Peyton!
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