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jimkelly02


Joined: 13 Oct 2008
Posts: 117
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:36 am    Post subject: Post Senior Bowl Mock Draft+Offseason (v2) Reply with quote

Restructure: total savings- 31.5M
Carson Palmer: Palmer restructured his contract last offseason and took a $11.675M signing bonus and .825 salary, a total of $12.5M. His ’13 and ’14 salaries are $13.0 and $15.0M. That is a 3yr/$40.5M (13.5M/yr) deal. That’s way too high. We should offer him a 3yr, $21M deal: salaries of 1.0, 5.0, 6.0 plus a 6.0m Signing Bonus. That would essentially make his deal $8.6+M/yr for 4 years. This saves us $12M.
Darrius Heyward-Bey: DHB's got 1 year left on contract with a $7.721m salary. It's beneficial to both sides to reduce his salary to 1.721m, saving us $6M.
Tommy Kelly: Reducing salary from $6.5M to $3.5M makes sense for both parties. Saves us $3M.
Michael Huff: Huff signed a 4yr/32M deal. He has 4.0m salaries with 4.0m roster bonuses for ’13 and ’14. If he was to drop the roster bonuses from his contract that would make it a much more reasonable 4yr/26M deal. He’s not going to command $5m/yr as a free agent so it serves him well to reduce his contract and stay. Saves us $4M.
Tyvon Branch: Branch signed a 4yr/26.6M contract last year. He has 3years left: (salary/prorated signing bonus/roster bonus) ‘13:6.0/1.4/3.5, '14:3.0/1.4/1.0, '15:5.5/1.4/1.0. Convert his 6.0m salary and 3.5m roster bonus into 6.0m SB + 1.0m salary. This lowers his cap number $6.5M.

Release: total savings- .295M
Mike Brisiel G- 4.35m salary minus remaining 2.72m of prorated signing bonus. Saves 1.63M. Not the biggest savings but with the switch to PBS and Brisiel not fitting its best to get rid of him and take the cap hit right away.
Rolando McClain LB- He's a bad player and person, has to go. 4.005m salary minus 5.34m prorated option bonus, costs 1.335M.

Free Agents:
Sign-
Hagan, Derek UFA 1yr, .84m
BARNES, KHALIF UFA 1yr, .84m
Goodson, Mike UFA 1yr, .715m
Bryant, Desmond UFA 3yrs/12.0m: 1.0, 3.5, 4.5 w 3.0m SB
Bryant figures to draw some attention in free agency but I think we'll be able to keep him with 4M/yr over 3-4 years.
Shaughnessy, Matt UFA 2yrs/6m: 1.5, 2.5 with 2.0m SB
I don't see Shaughnessy getting any substantial offer in free agency. He's strictly a run stuffing DE and should be playing LDE.
CARTER, ANDRE UFA 1yr, .94m
Wheeler, Philip UFA 2yrs/6.0m: 1.0, 3.0 w 2.0m SB
I know Wheeler had very good numbers but I don't think he's convinced GMs around the league he's anything special, as he produced his best year on a team with 2nd, 3rd, and street free agent talent around him.
Gaither, Omar UFA 1yr, .84m
HANSON, JOSELIO UFA 1yr, .84m
Mitchell, Mike UFA 1yr, 1.0m
GIORDANO, MATT UFA 1yr, .84m
Adams, Phillip RFA 1yr, ROFR, 1.323m

Not Resign-
Matt Leinart: Pryor's will develop into a solid #2 and Leinart just isn't very good.
Brandon Myers: I see him getting a bigger contract than what he's worth. With the move to PBS and Myers absolutely horrible blocking skills maybe it's best he gets a big deal and moves on.
Cooper Carlisle: Retires.
Richard Seymour: I feel his injuries had alot to do with his displeasure being on a losing team and knowing that he'd likely be released in offseason as his pay exceeds his play.
Shane Lechler: I initially wanted to sign Lechler to a 2.5-3M/yr 3-4yr deal. Then I reviewed his stats and for the last few years he's been incredibly average. Statistically he's barely top 10 in net and avg over the last few years. Save the money and go with King.

Sign-
Jordan Palmer QB- 1yr, .715m
He can be our #3 QB and this makes Carson happy given the fact that we're asking him to significantly reduce his pay.
Kevin O'Connell QB- 1yr, .715m
Local college prospect, 3rd rounder in '08, who can compete in training camp for 3rd QB.
Benard Scott RB- 1yr, .715m
Deon Butler- 1yr, .715m
Jared Cook- 2yrs/5.5m: 1.0, 2.5 with 2.0 SB.
He wants out of Tennessee badly. We can promise him the playing time he wants (only 485 snaps last year) and a fair contract. Last year Marcellus Bennett for 1yr/2.5M and Kevin Boss got 3yrs/9M, this is the type of deal what Cook should expect.
Max Starks T- 2yr/6M: 2.5, 3.5.
Michael Adams, 2nd round pick, expects to replace Starks in Pittsburgh. He could be an upgrade from Barnes but not too expensive and on a short-term contract. Kyle Long will replace him in starting line-up in a year or two
Chilo Rachal G- 1yr, .715m
David Buehler K- 1yr, .715m
Big leg who can keep Janikowski interested in training camp. Both have powerful legs.
Paul Kruger DE/OLB- 4yrs/16M: 1.0, 2.5, 3.5, 5 with 4.0 SB.
We simply cannot afford any of the top DE's in free agency. My plan is to draft his brothers plus we have his brother in law (Tony Bergstrom). Ravens have 2nd rounder Courtney Upshaw and him fighting for playing time. Why wouldn't he want to come play closer to home (Utah) and with his brothers/brother-in-law. Linebackers don't command nearly as much as DEs and his tweener label will keep him in our price range. I think he's the perfect complement to Shaughnessy at RDE. He can play RDE, and even SAM, in 4-3 and OLB in 3-4.
Glenn Dorsey DT- 2yrs/5.5M: 1.5, 2.5 with 2.0 SB.
Dorsey should really thrive in a 4-3 and because he's labeled a "bust" he should come rather keep.
Marcus Thomas DT- 1yr, .715m
Larry Grant- 2yrs/5m: 1.0, 2.0 with 2.0 SB.
We don't need a big money MLB because as we saw last year they are often sub'd out on passing downs.
Keith Rivers OLB- 1yr, .715m
Returns home to compete with Burris for starting WILL. Rivers is only 26 years old and is very talented, just needs to stay healthy.
Quentin Groves- 1yr, .715m
Darius Butler- 2yrs/3M: 1.0, 1.0 with 1.0 SB.
Butler has talent, he just needs to be more consistent. Last year in Indy he had a really nice year.
Leodis McKelvin- 2yrs/6M: 1.0, 2.0 with 3.0 SB.
Young, quality CB who could start for us and is a great PR.

Draft:
Trade- 1.3 to STL for 1.16, 1.22, 3.16, 4.16, 2014 2nd, 2014 5th
KC takes Geno Smith QB. STL needs a LT and Eric Fisher, and possibly Lane Johnson, will be gone by 16. They move up to get an elite LT. We have way too many holes and not enough draft choices so we trade down.
Trade- 1.22 to Buffalo for 2.10, 3.9, 4.8
Buffalo trades back up into late 1st for a #2 QB (Barkley/Wilson).

1.16 Chance Womack G Alabama Sr 6-2 322 5.32
Womack is an amazing Guard prospect, #1 or #2 in the last ten years. We need to upgrade the OLine significantly.
2.10 Jesse Williams NT Alabama Sr 6-3 320 4.94
Williams can play NT in the 4/3 and 3/4 and helps stop the run + keeps LBs free by necessitating the double team due to his amazing strength+size.
3.3 Ryan Logan CB Rutgers Jr -0 190 4.52
This years 3-11th ranked CBs are highly debated. Logan could go mid 2nd to mid 3rd. Hopefully he's available for us because I like his size and coverage skills. We need to develop talent at CB to go along with Free Agent acquisitions.
3.9 Travis Frederick G Wisconsin Jr 6-4 338 5.27
Frederick can play C and G but I like him move as a G. He should drop 10lbs to get more agility but his strength for run blocking is elite. The trio of Frederick-Wiz-Womack on the interior will certainly be able to open up holes in the run game.
3.16 Kyle Long OT Oregon Sr 6'6 304 5.04
Some "internet experts" have long as a mid 2nd round pick, but I feel their overlooking his lack of experience/rawness and giving him too much value because of his last name. Long will need 1-2 years before he can start. His short arms has many believing he will be forced inside to G but I think his athletic ability will make-up for that and be will prove to be a solid RT.
4.3 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall Sr 6'3 203 4.53
Many people want the Raiders to sign a big name free agent WR. I prefer to try and salvage DHBs career, hope Ford+Moore can get back on track, develop Criner+Streter, and draft someone like Dobson. Dobson has great hands and size but only average 4.5 speed. He can develop into a #2WR. I really love his hands and the way he attacks the ball/fights for the catch.
4.8 DJ Swearinger FS South Carolina Sr 5-11 210 4.56
I already know someone's gonna say Swearinger won't be here, he's a 2nd rounder! Just because he's the hot name on a few message boards this second doesn't mean that's his real value. Experts have him as an early 4th. There's good reason alot of fans like this guy though. He's a big hitter and played some CB. Huff's cap numbers even if restructured is quite high and its a good idea to develop someone behind him soon. Plus, he takes up Giordano's roster spot!
4.16 Gavin Escobar TE SDSU Jr 6-5 255 4.78
I really like Travis Kelce's great blocking skills to go along with solid receiving skills. However, with Myers expected to leave for a bigger contract than we're willing to offer and being replace by Jared Cook it's probably best we go with Gavin Escobar. While Escobar's blocking adequate and improving, his real strength is his size+speed+agility which makes him a great receiving TE.
6.3 Shamarko Thomas SS Syracuse Sr 5-9 217 4.39
Thomas isn't the best SS in coverage but he's a great tackler and will bring great value on Special Teams.
6.comp Joe Kruger DE Utah Jr 6-6 280 4.89
Soon after Kruger declared his value was in the 4th round, but now that people have given more thought to his evaluation he's settled in the 6-7th range. He's got good size and speed but is raw. It doesn't hurt that spending such a low pick on him might help us recruit his brother in free agency.
6.comp Michael Mauti LB PSU Sr 6-2 235 4.83
Great character guy but plagued by knee injuries. He's amazing on special teams.
7.3 Quanterus Smith DE Western Kentucky Sr 6-5 246 4.74
ACL tear late in the year otherwise he's a 3rd round pick. Place him on IR and let him heal and give him time to develop.
7.14 Zack Boren FB OSU Sr 6-0 245 4.78
Reese is awesome but he's not a great blocker at FB. Boren can open holes and offers ST's value.
7.comp Cameron Lawrence OLB Miss State Sr 6-233 4.69
Very productive player in college.
UDFA Knile Davis RB Arkansas Jr 6'0 226 4.52
UDFA John Wetzel OT BC Sr 6-7 313 5.28
UDFA Mike Edwards CB Hawaii Jr 5-10 190 4.49
UDFA Dave Kruger DL Utah Sr 6-5 310 5.10
UDFA Jeff Locke UCLA P 6-1 203 4.82

Released Before TC:
Hoese FB, Williams WR, Shuler TE, Foster G, Jones NT, Kurn LB, Harris LB, Nelms S

2013 Roster:
C Palmer, Pryor, J Palmer (O'Connell)
Reese, Boren (Olawale)
McFadden, Goodson, T Jones/Stewart (Scott, Davis)
Cook, Escobar, Gordon/Ausberry
DHB, Criner, Dobson (Hagan, Calhoun)
Moore, Ford, Streeter (Session, Butler)

Veldheer, Barnes (Wetzel)
Womack, Nix/Hurd (Slowey)
Wisniewski (Parsons)
Frederick, Bergstrom (Rachal)
Starks, Long (W Smith)

Janikowski (Buehler)
King (Locke)
Condo

Houston, Crawford (Tolleson, Bair, Kruger)
Kelly, Williams (Bilukidi)
Bryant, Dorsey (Thomas, Kruger)
Kruger, Shaughnessy, Carter (IR:Smith)

Wheeler, Groves (Burnett)
Grant, Mauti (Gaither, Goethel)
Burris, Rivers (Clayton, Lawrence)

Butler, Adams, Hanson (Francis, Edwards)
Huff, Swearinger (Giordano)
Branch, Mitchell (Thomas)
McKelvin, Ryan, Chekwa (Ross, Owusu-Ansah)
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oakdb36


Joined: 01 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know why those 3 players would take a straight pay cut to play on a 4-12 team.
The numbers you have for the FAs look pretty accurate to me though. But i can't see us signing all those guys.
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Rolni


Joined: 08 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
I don't know why those 3 players would take a straight pay cut to play on a 4-12 team.
The numbers you have for the FAs look pretty accurate to me though. But i can't see us signing all those guys.

+1
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NCOUGHMAN


Joined: 25 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cant see the trade with the rams going through imvho.

i like the offseason and the draft though
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Play4Blood


Joined: 03 Feb 2010
Posts: 129
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Optimism runs deep in the offseason.
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Bo_Spice


Joined: 17 May 2009
Posts: 9687
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure why everyone thinks Joe Kruger is going to last until the end of the sixth round, he's a mid-round prospect at worst.

Quanterus Smith isn't going to fall to the seventh round even with the knee injury. I can't see him getting out of the fifth round but he'd be a nice fit if we did bring him in.

Knile Davis is going to blow up the combine and so even with the injury concerns and lack of production this past year I doubt he'll go undrafted. He's going to be training with Olympic Sprinter Michael Johnson, the same guy McFadden trained with before having his breakout season for us. But he'd be worth bringing in as a late round pick as I think he has the potential to be a starting running back at the next level.

I'm not too big of a fan of the Kyle Long pick in the third round either. Brennan Williams would be a much better fit and a much better value in the third round.
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ZoomWaffle


Joined: 25 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no way any team gives up 2 1sts, a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th for any pick in this draft. Thats Ricky Willliams status.
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jimkelly02


Joined: 13 Oct 2008
Posts: 117
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trade Value Chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

1.3= 2200

1.16- 1000
1.22- 780
3.16- 190
4.16- 70
future 2nd- 140
future 5th- 20
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NickButera


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jimkelly02 wrote:
Trade Value Chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

1.3= 2200

1.16- 1000
1.22- 780
3.16- 190
4.16- 70
future 2nd- 140
future 5th- 20


I've been thinking more about this. The true value of the #3 pick is large. Very large. However it's also determined by the kind of players available and the determination of the team wanting to draft up to get him. The way I see it, going by the numbers, we won't get near as much compensation as we "should". Big part of me hopes we trade down, because of the bounty we could haul in. But the other part of me thinks there is no such way anyone is going to be worth this much in a trade. At least not yet.
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DarthDavis


Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 5213
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NickButera wrote:
jimkelly02 wrote:
Trade Value Chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

1.3= 2200

1.16- 1000
1.22- 780
3.16- 190
4.16- 70
future 2nd- 140
future 5th- 20


I've been thinking more about this. The true value of the #3 pick is large. Very large. However it's also determined by the kind of players available and the determination of the team wanting to draft up to get him. The way I see it, going by the numbers, we won't get near as much compensation as we "should". Big part of me hopes we trade down, because of the bounty we could haul in. But the other part of me thinks there is no such way anyone is going to be worth this much in a trade. At least not yet.


The best chance we have for a bounty is if Luke and or Geno are available. The DT's are too deep for anyone to go ape ish over star and the same should be said of the DE's. I hope the Bills want Geno and we can trade back to their spot for a possibility at Jarvis, Millner, Warmack, or Fisher.
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Silver&Black88


Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 34531
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DarthDavis wrote:
NickButera wrote:
jimkelly02 wrote:
Trade Value Chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

1.3= 2200

1.16- 1000
1.22- 780
3.16- 190
4.16- 70
future 2nd- 140
future 5th- 20


I've been thinking more about this. The true value of the #3 pick is large. Very large. However it's also determined by the kind of players available and the determination of the team wanting to draft up to get him. The way I see it, going by the numbers, we won't get near as much compensation as we "should". Big part of me hopes we trade down, because of the bounty we could haul in. But the other part of me thinks there is no such way anyone is going to be worth this much in a trade. At least not yet.


The best chance we have for a bounty is if Luke and or Geno are available. The DT's are too deep for anyone to go ape ish over star and the same should be said of the DE's. I hope the Bills want Geno and we can trade back to their spot for a possibility at Jarvis, Millner, Warmack, or Fisher.


Or Jordan.
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dmac505


Joined: 07 Aug 2008
Posts: 832
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the offseason went like that i would be one very happy raider fan.
unfortunetly i don't see us getting all those FA

Kelly is too cocky to take a pay cut IMO seems like a me first type person

As others have said, the draft chart is just a guideline, the players determine the value of picks not some stat sheet.

but if, STL falls in love with Luke that'd be great it could happen. id be happy with just there 2 first realistically.

I think Ari and Buff are more likely trade partners though
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mhuff24


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
Posts: 2002
Location: M-Town, RI
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Silver&Black88 wrote:
DarthDavis wrote:
NickButera wrote:
jimkelly02 wrote:
Trade Value Chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

1.3= 2200

1.16- 1000
1.22- 780
3.16- 190
4.16- 70
future 2nd- 140
future 5th- 20


I've been thinking more about this. The true value of the #3 pick is large. Very large. However it's also determined by the kind of players available and the determination of the team wanting to draft up to get him. The way I see it, going by the numbers, we won't get near as much compensation as we "should". Big part of me hopes we trade down, because of the bounty we could haul in. But the other part of me thinks there is no such way anyone is going to be worth this much in a trade. At least not yet.


The best chance we have for a bounty is if Luke and or Geno are available. The DT's are too deep for anyone to go ape ish over star and the same should be said of the DE's. I hope the Bills want Geno and we can trade back to their spot for a possibility at Jarvis, Millner, Warmack, or Fisher.


Or Jordan.


The draft value chart is poop. No one runs by that garbage they go off what is going to make their team better and trading up in this draft class for all those picks is probably not going to make your team better.
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Raidin


Joined: 05 Mar 2007
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Location: Dublin
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I was a Rams fan and Fischer made that trade I'd want him fired.
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G


Joined: 02 Feb 2007
Posts: 3315
Location: Hollywierd
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Joeckel is there, I think we can get #7 and #38 from Arizona
If Smith is there I think Bills could move up.
Between picks 7-10 there may be another possibility to trade down to the Rams at 16 and get their #48
So 3/68/99 no trade downs...
OR 16/38/48/68/99 more realistic to me. Might even get a mid 3rd in there but I'm giving the 'value' to the teams trading up as we need more 2-3rd round picks...
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