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Are College Coaches better drafters?
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willy_law


Joined: 10 Jan 2010
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Location: Villanova University
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:52 pm    Post subject: Are College Coaches better drafters? Reply with quote

Okay, so this is really long post. I have it on my draft blog ( in the sig) and that would probably be easier to read but I don't remember how FF feels about links to your own content. I just want to know what you guys think about it, my friends aren't really has knowledgeable about the game. IF you guys think its stupid or obvious then let me know

There has been a trend in coaching hires recently NFL, I would guess since about 2009 it has become more popular. Teams hire a collegiate coach straight from the NCAA and make them your head coach. I think I have noticed a trend with those coaches, the coaches who come straight from a HC job in college to an HC job in the NFL are better drafters and just overall talent evaluators. What I am going to do is look at each of the recently hired straight to the NFL coaches drafting records and see how those players have produced. Most people look at the amount of hits a coach has but I am going to focus on the misses. What I will call a miss is a player who is not on the team. I think a good drafter is not just a person who finds home-run value but also finds solid role-playing value as well; for that reason I will not differentiate the hits from this misses.

Another thing to take into account that I will not be noting in this post is the value of the player in reference to the pick that they give.

The first coach I will be looking at is Pete Carroll who took over the Seahawks in 2010

His first draft
1. Russell Okung -
1. Earl Thomas
2. Golden Tate
4. Walter Thurmond
4. EJ Wilson
5. Kam Chancellor
6. Anthony McCoy
7.. Dexter Davis
7. Jameson Konz

In this draft they got both of their starting S in Chancellor and Thomas and arguably the best tandem of S in the league. Golden Tate has shown up this year for them, Walter Thurmond has shown flashes before injury.
Anthony McCoy has been a strong 2nd TE for them. Dexter Davis is on the team not entirely sure about his role

Only Wilson and Konz are not on the team

Misses – 2

2011
Round 1: James Carpenter, OT
Round 3: John Moffitt, G
Round 4: K.J. Wright, OLB
Round 4: Kris Durham, WR
Round 5: Richard Sherman, CB
Round 5: Mark Legree, FS
Round 6: Byron Maxwell, DB
Round 7: Lazarius Levingston, DE
Round 7: Malcolm Smith, OLB

Carpenter got injured, Moffit is not starting currently but did start 6 games this year. KJ is a stud LB for Seattle. Richard Sherman is arguably the 2nd best CB in the league and was drafted in round 5. Malcolm Smith and Maxwell have both been solid contributes for Seattle. Doug Baldwin was undrafted but has put up numbers for the Seahawks

Legree is no longer on the team the same as Levingston

Misses 2



2012

Round 1. Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia

Round 2 – Bobby Wagner ILB Utah State

Round 3. Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin/ NC State

Round 4. Robert Turbin RB Utah State

Round 4. Jaye Howard DT Florida

Round 5. Korey Toomer ILB Idaho

Round 6 . Jeremy Lane CB Northwestern State

Round 6: Winston Guy DB Kentucky

Round 7 – JR Sweezy DE NC State

Rounnd 7 – Greg Scruggs DE Lousiville

Bruce Irvin has been essentially a sack ace for the Seahawks coming in on pass rushing situations and lighting it up. Bobby Wagner had a 140 tackles and 3 interceptions, which are literally All-Pro numbers. Russell Wilson well I assume you already know the amazing season he had. Robert Turbin has been a good complimentary back to Lynch. Jaye Howard played in 2 games. Korey Toomer is on the practice squad. Jeremy Lane produced with 15 tackles throughout the season, Winston Guys saw minimal PT during the season. JR Sweezy was drafted as a DE and then switched positions to OG. Sweezy struggled with the transition at first but now has a stronghold on the job. Greg Scruggs produced 2 sacks as a 7th round draft pick.

Overall - Carroll only had 4 misses with a few players that still need to prove themselves due to injuries.


I won’t call any players a miss yet because it is still their rookie year, in all honesty the jury is still out as most of them are still under 25. But in Carroll’s 3 drafts he has found his 2 Pro Bowl safeties, 2 starting LB’s, an OG, his franchise QB, a lock down CB , really solid role players, an Ace pass rusher and a few talented lineman that the jury is still out on.

One thing i have noticed is that a lot of the players Carroll made moves after were players that Carroll coached against while at USC. Sherman and Baldwin went to Stanford, Brandon Browner the Offseason FA pick up went to Oregon State, Walter Thurmond for Oregon.

Could seeing those players in person against him and game planning against them given Carroll even better knowledge than the other coaches? Scouting players to draft is one thing but scouting players to figure out how to beat them is another. The combination of the two could give coaches like Carroll and edge.

This is also a very small sample size, so let’s look at other coaches who was hired from the NCAA. The natural guess would be Jim Harbaugh but I feel that Harbaugh would be skewing the argument and since he has only coached for 2 season it will be hard to gauge his players. Harbaugh also inherited a really strong D and didn’t have much work to do with that part of the team. Of course Harbaugh did have his share of questionable calls like AJ Jenkins in the first.

Greg Schiano is the only the other coach currently who was hired straight from the NCAA but he was a rookie coach this year but picks like Doug Martin, Lavonte David, Mark Barron could help. Schiano also drafted 2 former big east rival WVU mountaineers in Najee Goode and Keith Tandy, both of them didn’t produce this year but it will be interesting to see them grow and if Schiano knew something most didn’t.

Looking through the rest of the coaches none with any drafting history were straight from College. I thought about using Chan Gailey but he spent 2 years in between GT and a HC job. Nick Saban and Petrino were options but both of their body works were smaller than Carroll’s as well as the fact they drafted 8 years ago.

Overall, Pete Carroll is the only coach that a somewhat fair assessment can be done. This is a very interesting topic and it is one that I would expect to pick up steam as coaches like Harbaugh, Schiano, Kelly and Marrone build their teams through the draft.
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KamTrus20


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Butch Davis says NO
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Using such a broad definition of a pick not being a miss is going to give you skewed results. With a new HC, more often than not its because the team wasnt very good and as such had many more replaceable players than other teams. Secondly, with a new HC typically comes new schemes which will require more turnover so that they get "their" guys. Due to these, plus your very broad definition of what not being a miss is, your results are going to paint newer HCs as better drafters than HCs who have been there longer and have less roster turnover overall.
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willy_law


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Location: Villanova University
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
Using such a broad definition of a pick not being a miss is going to give you skewed results. With a new HC, more often than not its because the team wasnt very good and as such had many more replaceable players than other teams. Secondly, with a new HC typically comes new schemes which will require more turnover so that they get "their" guys. Due to these, plus your very broad definition of what not being a miss is, your results are going to paint newer HCs as better drafters than HCs who have been there longer and have less roster turnover overall.


thats what I was thinking about when writing this but I thought that by shifting the focus to only players that were misses and ignoring "hits" that would be an effective way.

I think i stray from that in my Harbaugh and Schiano example when I list players who are hits. DO you think that by only focusing on the players that they have missed on and really not even mentioning the hits would be an effective way of measuring it?

I tried to do a points system but couldn't figure it out but now that I mention it
giving a points system where a miss in the first round is worth 7 points and a miss in the 7th would be worth 1, Seems like it would be effective. and simply dividing that by the amount of year that a coach has drafted would be able to show how effective of a talent evaluator he is. Obviously coaches with tenure would have more misses but if they aren't missing on 1st and 2nd round picks they could be fine.

I think i'll toy around with that.
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titwio


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still scratching my head at that James Carpenter pick.
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7DnBrnc53


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KamTrus20 wrote:
Butch Davis says NO


True, but Jimmy Johnson says YES.

So dord John Ralston, Denver's coach in the mid-70's, who they hired from Stanford in 1972. Not a great motivator, but a good drafter. Picked Pro Bowlers in the first round in his first four years as coach, and found later round steals in the draft and college FA like Tom Jackson, Rubin Carter, Barney Chavous, Steve Foley, and Bob Swenson. He built the Broncos for Red Miller.
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Tatupu_64


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tatupu_64 wrote:
Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does


This.
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Kikuchiyo


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Tatupu_64 wrote:
Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does


This.


Baalke makes most of the picks for the 49ers as well. Harbs hand picked Kaepernick, but that's about it.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kikuchiyo wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Tatupu_64 wrote:
Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does


This.


Baalke makes most of the picks for the 49ers as well. Harbs hand picked Kaepernick, but that's about it.


thank god he was a scout and personnel guy. This years draft doesn't look great right now, but we were a pretty deep team, so i'm content to be patient, even if Baalke and I do have polar opposite draft philosophies that make me go crazy on draft weekend (though in truth, i think that's why it's one of my favorite sports weekends of the year, right up there with the first two rds of the ncaa tourney).
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Pithy Radish


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tatupu_64 wrote:
Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does

What makes you say that? Carroll has more power when it comes to personal decisions. He is headcoach, and executive vice president of the Seahawks, the same position as Schneider. When Carroll was first hired Paul Allen clarified that Carroll was also in control of personal, plus Carroll was the one that actually picked and hired Schneider to be the GM of the Seahawks - not the other way around. It is no doubt that they are a team, however Carroll's word is law, not Schneiders.
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shawn


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You need to look at other college coaches turned NFL head coaches and not just Pete Caroll. Otherwise it does not really prove anything. And we will have to wait a few more draft classes to see what becomes of these players.

While both Harbaugh and Caroll have done an excellent job of adding talent to their teams, they do have picks like James Carpenter and AJ Jenkins bringing them back down to earth with the rest of us.
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PowerElite


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Former college head coaches are better NFL drafters than the average NFL developed head coach because they once proved to be top level recruiters. Some college coaches are bad recruiters from the talent evaluation aspect.
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alfalcone


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They aren't better drafters, but I do think they are better at, and more willing to change their schemes so that their players are in a position to succeed.
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Sacks98


Joined: 21 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pithy Radish wrote:
Tatupu_64 wrote:
Schneider has a bigger role in who we select than Carroll does

What makes you say that? Carroll has more power when it comes to personal decisions. He is headcoach, and executive vice president of the Seahawks, the same position as Schneider. When Carroll was first hired Paul Allen clarified that Carroll was also in control of personal, plus Carroll was the one that actually picked and hired Schneider to be the GM of the Seahawks - not the other way around. It is no doubt that they are a team, however Carroll's word is law, not Schneiders.


Yea they have to be on the same page because Caroll can say no to Schneider.
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