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Chill's simulation mock draft (a different way of mocking)
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chillparsi1


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Posts: 5715
Location: USC
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:34 am    Post subject: Chill's simulation mock draft (a different way of mocking) Reply with quote

The chillparsi1 probabilities mock

Okay so this is the second time I've done this. Here's how this mock works...I assign probabilities to how likely each player is to be selected by the first team. Then I run a quick random simulation to determine who is actually selected...then I assign probabilities for the next team.

Why do it this way? (A) because drafts are a crapshoot fill of surprises...so saying team _______ will definitely take ______ is far too black and white. (B) it mixes things up -> you don't end up seeing the same players go to the same teams


A few notes for the readers. I admittedly don't do much scouting anymore...so I go almost exclusively off what others say and I'm not the draftnik I once was. But I still love to know more, so if you want to increase or decrease the odds of a player...please explain why. Especially when it comes down to player-scheme nuances. For example, you'll see that I don't really differentiate Rhodes, Banks, and Trufant much, but I'm sure they're better fits for some teams than others.

Also, for those of you who really like this concept...I originally designed this to be a multi-person thing. So maybe we have a rep per team or a few people coming up with percentages together. If you're interested PM me. I'm also working on an excel tool (for VBA practice) that speeds up this process, if you want to do this on your own.


01) Kansas City Chiefs – Mike Glennon, QB, NC State (2%)
Geno Smith (75%), Luke Joeckel (11%), Ryan Nassib (5%), Star Lotulelei (3%), Matt Barkley (2%), Tyler Wilson (2%)
*Great we’re off to a great start. I swear I didn’t do this to be different and this isn’t rigged – Glennon really did come up! How can we justify it? We’re still months out from the draft, Smith somehow bombs his workout/interview, they resign Albert, and Glennon lights up his pro-day.

02) Jacksonville Jaguars – Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU (15%)
Star Lotulelei (25%), Damontre Moore (15%),Bjoern Werner (15%), Jarvis Jones (10%), Dion Jordan (10%), Geno Smith (4%), Ryan Nassib (2%), Matt Barkley (2%), Tyler Wilson (2%)
*Had a tough time pinning down what defense the Jags will be playing next year. I think they’ll be playing a scheme (4-3 Under) where Mingo’s ability to play standing up and with his hand down is a plus. Mingo allegedly has packed on weight…we’ll see in a few days.

03) Oakland Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah (34%)
Damontre Moore (18%), Geno Smith (15%), Bjoern Werner (10%), Sheldon Richardson (10%), Jarvis Jones (8%), Ryan Nassib (5%)

04) Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M (50%)
Geno Smith (10%), Eric Fisher (10%), Jarvis Jones (10%), Damontre Moore (10%), Dion Jordan (10%)

05) Detroit Lions – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (30%)
Bjoern Werner (27%), Damontre Moore (25%), Eric Fisher (15%), Chance Warmack (3%)

06) Cleveland Browns – Geno Smith, QB, WVU (5%)
Bjoern Werner (25%), Damontre Moore (25%), Jarvis Jones (13%), Ezekiel Ansah (10%), Keenan Allen (10%), Dion Jones (9%), Ryan Nassib (3%)
*This really threw a wrench in the draft (but that kinda what I try to mimic with this method). I actually believe in Weeden, but a new front office with a falling #1 caliber QB makes this possible.

07) Arizona Cardinals – Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse (60%)
Tyler Wilson (13%), Matt Barkley (13%), Eric Fisher (10%), Chance Warmack (2%), Keenan Allen (2%)

0Cool Buffalo Bills – Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State (25%)
Damontre Moore (25%), Jarvis Jones (14%), Dion Jordan (9%), Ezekiel Ansah (9%), Tyler Wilson (6%), Matt Barkley (6%), Keenan Allen (3%), Corradelle Patterson (3%)

09) New York Jets – Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia (28%)
Damontre Moore (22%), Dion Jordan (18%), Ezekiel Ansah (17%), Tyler Wilson (5%), Kenny Vaccaro (5%), Chance Warmack (5%)
*I know it’s stupid to look rule out players from the same school, but in a media nightmare city like NYC, I can’t see them even considering Barkley with everything that has happened with Sanchez.

10) Tennessee Titans – Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (19%)
Sheldon Richardson (33%), Sharrif Floyd (24%), Damontre Moore (20%), Keenan Allen (2%), Corradelle Patterson (2%)
*Wasn’t too sure which way to go here, but there’s no glaring needs and Warmack is probably a top-10 pick talent wise. Just docked him a bit because of the value

11) San Diego Chargers – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (70%)
Damontre Moore (13%), Dion Jordan (12%), Lane Johnson (5%)

12) Miami Dolphins – Keenan Allen, WR, Cal (15%)
Damontre Moore (27%), Ezekiel Ansah (25%), Dion Jordan (15%), Lane Johnson (8%), Corradelle Patterson (5%), Kenny Vaccaro (5%)

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida (15%)
Damontre Moore (40%), Sheldon Richardson (17%), Xavier Rhodes (15%), Jonathan Banks (10%), Kenny Vaccaro (3%)
*On one hand I feel I’m underestimating their CB need, but Rhodes and Banks just don’t appear to merit this high a pick.

14) Carolina Panthers – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (37%)
Sheldon Richardson (40%), Xavier Rhodes (10%), Corradelle Patterson (8%), Jonathan Banks (5%)
*Johnson was given this high a chance as Gross’s replacement. I like LaFell, but I think Patterson could be groomed (he’s probably going to need a few years anyway) to be a #1 when SS goes. I kind of wish I’d given him more of a percent actually

15) New Orleans Saints – Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M (50%)
Dion Jordan (30%), Jonathan Hankins (15%), Ezekiel Ansah (5%)

16) St. Louis Rams – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas (40%)
Sheldon Richardson (25%), Corradelle Patterson (10%), Quinton Patton (10%), Travon Austin (10%), Jonathan Cooper (5%)
*I figure the Rams look at this board and see there’s a few teams that would want Vaccaro and Richardson before their next pick. There’s a chance to get one of the WRs with the next one
**If I were predicting trades, I’d probably have some team (Indy?) trading up here to try and nab Dion Jordan ahead of Pittsburgh

17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU (25%)
Dion Jordan (35%), Sheldon Richardson (15%), Alec Ogletree (10%), Jonathan Hankins (10%), Jesse Williams (5%)

1Cool Dallas Cowboys – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri (75%)
Jonathan Hankins (12%), Jonathan Cooper (8%), John Jenkins (5%)
*Richardson probably shouldn’t fall this far, but with the rise of Floyd he may. Would be a perfect fit for what Monte Kiffin wants at DT.

19) New York Giants – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia (38%)
Jonathan Hankins (25%), John Jenkins (14%), Xavier Rhodes (12%), Jonathan Banks (11%)
*I actually would have given Ogletree a higher percentage if I were more sold on him being able to play in a 4-3.

20) Chicago Bears – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame (10%)
Tyler Eifert (21%), DJ Fluker (16%), Jonathan Cooper (16%), Zach Ertz (16%), Dion Jordan (11%), Manti Te’o (10%), Barrett Jones (10%)
*I had trouble giving Fluker a higher percent because he’s a RT and they just got Carimi for that a few years back.

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Corradelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (25%)
Dion Jordan (40%), Jonathan Cooper (16%), Quinton Patton (10%), Kevin Minter (5%), Eddie Lacy (2%), DJ Fluker (2%)
*It’s hit the point where I think Jordan has fallen so far that 4-3 teams will take a chance on him playing as a 4-3 end even though he looks a bit more like a 3-4 OLB. With Michael Johnson, another long, athletic DE, in question I actually though he would be a real good fit here.

22) St. Louis Rams – Jonathan Cooper, C/OG, North Carolina (17%)
Eddie Lacy (30%), Dion Jordan (17%), Quinton Patton (17%), Travon Austin (12%), Robert Woods (7%)
*I know it’s hypocritical to say they could wait for a WR but now have WRs with such low percentages. Just without Patterson on the board there’s a lot of question.

23) Minnesota Vikings – Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon (35%)
Quinton Patton (15%), Kawaan Short (13%), Jonathan Hankins (13%), John Jenkins (8%), Xavier Rhodes (8%), Travon Austin (5%), Robert Woods (3%)
*They play in a pass-happy division and Allen has hit 31. This is a risk worth taking in my mind.

24) Indianapolis Colts – Barrett Jones, C/OG, Alabama (10%)
DJ Fluker (37%), Jonathan Hankins (15%), Jesse Williams (15%), John Jenkins (13%), Sam Montgomery (10%)

25) Seattle Seahawks – DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama (18%)
Kawaan Short (20%), Robert Woods (15%), Quinton Patton (15%), Sam Montgomery (12%), Jonathan Hankins (10%), John Henkins (10%)
*Playing in a really physical division (read, playing SF twice a year) having a monster RT can’t hurt. I’m not sold on Giacomini just based on his days as a Packer...

26) Green Bay Packers – Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St (20%)
Jesse Williams (15%), John Jenkins (15%), Zach Ertz (15%), Tyler Eifert (12%), Robert Woods (9%), Quinton Patton (9%), Eddie Lacy (5%)
*If I were predicting trades I’d have Denver jump here to steal Minter. There’s plenty of targets for the Packers 2 picks later

27) Houston Texans – Kevin Minter, LB, LSU (30%)
Quinton Patton (25%), Jesse Williams (15%), John Jenkins (15%), Robert Woods (13%), Terrance Williams (2%)

2Cool Denver Broncos – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St (18%)
Jesse Williams (20%), John Jenkins (20%), Jonathan Banks (10%), Desmond Trufant (10%), Sylvester Williams (10%), Tyler Eifert (5%), Zach Ertz (5%), Luther Brown (2%)
*They already have Tamme and Green as the pass catching TEs, didn’t think Ertz/Eifert would be too likely here.

29) New England Patriots – Jesse Williams, DE/DT, Alabama (20%)
John Jenkins (15%), Kawaan Short (13%), Jonathan Banks (12%), Robert Woods (10%), Desmond Trufant (10%), Sylvester Williams (10%), Quinton Patton (10%)
*I figured Bellicheck would love Williams’s versatility and that he comes well coached and disciplined from Saban.

30) Atlanta Falcons – Alex Okafor, DE, Texas (5%)
Sam Montgomery (25%), Zach Ertz (23%), Tyler Eifert (22%), Kawaan Short (20%), Eddie Lacy (5%)
*If Gonzalez retires for sure then Ertz/Eifert get their odds doubled. Even if he stays though, they could be targets here.

31) San Francisco 49ers – Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford (10%)
John Jenkins (14%), Jonathan Banks (12%), Desmond Trufant (12%), Sam Montgomery (10%), Matt Elam (8%), Robert Woods (7%), Sylvester Williams (7%), Travis Frederick (6%), Quinton Patton (5%), Travon Austin (5%), Eddie Lacy (4%)
*I really have no idea here. Trufant, Woods, and Ertz got boosts because of Harbaugh’s Pac-12 knowledge. For the rest I just tried to find good overall players with good value.

32) Baltimore Ravens – John Jenkins, DT, Georgia (20%)
Sam Mongomery (30%), Margus Hunt (20%), Sylvester Williams (20%), John Cyprien (10%)
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theindianstud12


Joined: 02 Feb 2009
Posts: 1955
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perfect Chicago Bears pick. Hope its more than a 10% chance though
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
Posts: 4993
Location: Toronto, CA
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I absolutely love this simulation concept draft!

As for the Vikings % given the board:

Deandre Hopkins (20%)
Jonathan Hankins (20%)
Kevin Minter (20%)
Quitton Patton (15%)
Jonathan Banks (10%)
Kawaan Short (7%)
Xavier Rhodes (6%)
John Jenkins (2%)

As expected we can go in a number of ways:
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INbengalfan


Joined: 21 Jan 2006
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Location: Richmond, IN
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love Patterson for the Bengals.
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ochocinco4pres


Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 23486
Location: Indianapolis Indiana
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good Bengals pick
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zelbell


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
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Location: Columbus
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd prefer Damontre Moore for the Browns
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FLOODx


Joined: 26 Feb 2009
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Location: New Orleans
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good Saints pick
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Pruitt3443


Joined: 29 Dec 2011
Posts: 475
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I would have weighted it this way for the Browns and Smith would not even be in the equation:

Damontre Moore (30%), Bjoern Werner (25%),Jarvis Jones (25%), Dion Jordan (10%), Ezekiel Ansah (6%), Kenny Vaccaro (4%);
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skatebeanz


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not huge fan for DET. They are reaching on a guy that has a ceiling of good starter instead of getting an impact guy that is All-Pro potential.
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FREDDY T


Joined: 26 Jan 2008
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Location: NY
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an actuarial science student, I think this might be one of the coolest things I have ever seen. With my continued study of excel, I would love to make one of these when I get the chance.

Awesome!!!
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james.mcmurry13


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
14) Carolina Panthers – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (37%)
Sheldon Richardson (40%), Xavier Rhodes (10%), Corradelle Patterson (8%), Jonathan Banks (5%)


These are pretty good, I'd probably change the probs to:

35% Lane Johnson
35% Sheldon Richardson
15% Cordarrelle Patterson
15% Kenny Vaccaro

Banks might deserve 2-5% as well, but corner probably won't get too much consideration in round 1.
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Panthers11


Joined: 23 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I LOVE this concept. Nice job.
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diamondcutter27


Joined: 02 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glennon...REALLY?!?!?!
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Th@Bird$


Joined: 04 Apr 2009
Posts: 171
Location: PA
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would lower the chances of the Eagles getting Joeckel to about 35% and put Chance Warmack in the mix at about 5%. Leaving 5% to up our chances of selecting Dion Jordan to 15%
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jerseyboy257


Joined: 21 Apr 2012
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Location: Northern Jersey
PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is an awesome idea, but I don't like the % at all, at least for the Giants. To me, it would be more like

Dion Jordan 65%, Xavier Rhodes 10%, Johnathon Cooper 5%, Manti Te'o 5%, Arthur Brown 5% Jonathon Banks 5% Alec Ogletree 5%
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