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ark's 2013 mock draft 1.0 (3 rounder)
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ark23


Joined: 04 Dec 2012
Posts: 1559
Location: Columbus, Ohio
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:48 pm    Post subject: ark's 2013 mock draft 1.0 (3 rounder) Reply with quote

*Note that this mock draft is done based upon what I THINK the teams will do, not what I would do if I were the GM of the respective organizations. For example if I was KC I would take Arthur Brown at #1, but that's not what I anticipate Andy Reid and John Dorsey doing. This means that this draft is done heavily by looking at tendencies and philosophies of each teams decision makers

*Also note that these players are not selected based upon my rankings, rather where I think they will go. For example I think that Markus Wheaton is the third best WR in this draft class but I don't have him as the third receiver off the board because I don't anticipate him being selected there.

*Criticism is definitely ok, and I'm 100% open to it. But the criticism that helps me and I think is more valuable for predicting picks is not "I prefer player x over player y"; rather criticism that explains why a certain player fits or doesn't fit your scheme, or details about your teams scheme, needs, decision making historically, and draft philosophy/trends that may impact this mock draft one way or another

*I Don't project trades


1) Kansas City Chiefs Select - Sharrif Floyd / DT / Florida

- With the release of starting right tackle Eric Winston, many seem to believe that now the Chiefs will be more likely to take either Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and slot them in at right tackle - and some even believe Joeckel or Fisher will start at left tackle and the recently franchise tagged Branden Albert will slide over to the right side. All of those things are possibilities, but I don't think they necessarily affect the Chiefs decision here. New GM John Dorsey has clearly indicated that he will be a BPA/BVA drafter this year. That's the reason they made the Alex Smith trade - because they didn't view any QB as BPA/BVA here. With that in mind I think this pick will be between the five players the Chiefs will view as BPA here - Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Sheldon Richardson, Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel. Knowing Dorsey's Ted Thompson influence and Reid's values, I think they opt to go defensive line here. Reid has consistently shown in the past that he values d-lineman above all - taking 7 of them with 14 first rounders in Philly. Dorsey will have that Ted Thompson influence, where the belief that the closer to the ball you are the more valuable you are is fostered. With that in mind, Floyd is who I think Dorsey and Reid will deem the best fit. A technically gifted twenty year old with violent hands and a strong lower body, Floyd has experience playing the five tech - where he would best profile in this defense, and can step in right away opposite Tyson Jackson. Lotulelei makes some sense, but I think the Chiefs will see him as more similar to Poe and more of a 3-4 NT, ultimately leading them to value Floyd highest.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars Select - Barkevious Mingo / OLB / LSU

- The Jaguars will likely be a very different team next year, and that transition will include a schematic change on the defensive side of the ball where the Jags will be transitioning to new Head Coach Gus Bradley's 4-3 under scheme. Maybe the key to this scheme is the LEO position, a hybrid OLB/DE who will rush from a wide alignment often, either with his hand in the ground or standing up. New GM David Caldwell has been adamant that he will be a needs-based drafter, and with his ties to Thomas Dimitrioff this only makes sense. There is no need bigger for the Jaguars than that of a pass rusher. With only 20 sacks last year the Jaguars were dead last in the NFL, and in today's NFL where elite pass rushers off the edge are second only to QB in value I don't think that it's very likely that the Jags leave this pick without a pass rusher. With that said KeKe Mingo is the ideal fit for the LEO, with his elite first step, great bend, long arms and the potential to be a high level pass rusher at the next level.

3) Oakland Raiders Select - Geno Smith / QB / West Virginia

- The Raiders are among the most difficult teams to project in this draft, simply because of the amount of sheer unknowns. GM Reggie McKenzie is in his second year, but it's hard to get a true grasp on his values in the draft after in his first year the Raiders didn't have a top 90 pick. Still it's clear that McKenzie trusts himself and his scouting department, and is not afraid to go a little under the radar/away from the consensus with his picks. Well the Raiders do have Carson Palmer under contract for a while, but Palmer is 33 years old and it's clear he's not a long term option for the team. Backup Terrelle Pryor is an athlete first and QB second, who though gifted probably is best suited to a role as a wildcat/zone read QB and gadget guy. In this league you can't win without a QB, something McKenzie certainly knows. I also think it's important to note that McKenzie and this staff has no ties to Palmer or Pryor, with each brought in under the previous administration. Rumors indicate that the Raiders are high on Geno, and though it's the lying season I'm inclined to believe them. Smith can be a long term answer, and fits well both into Greg Olson's offense and the personnel that the Raiders have. I think that defensive line is a strong possibility here as McKenzie has made it known he values the trenches highly, and as a BPA/BVA drafter could view Star Lotulelei, Sheldon Richardson or Ziggy Ansah as good value here and select them to improve a pass rush that was second to last in the NFL in sacks.

4) Philadelphia Eagles Select - Star Lotulelei / DT / Utah

- With Chip Kelly taking over the reigns in Philly there will likely be drastic changes on both sides of the ball, and expect to see Kelly's fingerprints all over this draft as he was very unlikely to take this job without getting a significant say in personnel decisions. GM Howie Roseman is a clear BPA/BVA drafter, and I think that sitting at four Kelly and Roseman will come to the same conclusion with this pick. Lotulelei's stock has fallen, at least in the eyes of the media, after some questions arose about a heart problem at the combine but since it has largely been dismissed as more than likely a minor or at least fixable issue. With that in mind Lotulelei is almost certainly going to be viewed as one of the two or three best prospects in this draft class after playing at a high level for Utah over the past two seasons and showcasing versatility, elite power, great quickness and a high ceiling in the NFL. Kelly knows Lotulelei well each's time in the Pac-12, and I think the new boss will be high on his potential and versatility (a trait Kelly absolutely loves). Lotulelei is an ideal fit schematically for new DC Bill Davis' 4-3 under/3-4 scheme and can start at one tech, or even five tech from day one thanks to his unique combination of power, length and quick feet. Many will point to the signing of Isaac Sopoaga in free agency as rationale for the Eagles passing on a big man like Lotulelei, but to me it appears Sopoaga was signed as a stop gap - the 31 year old will be used to mentor Lotulelei. And one thing to remember is that Chip Kelly LOVES depth and consistently rotates players throughout the defensive line. Dion Jordan is definitely a strong possibility here, but I think that Kelly will see better value in Lotulelei and recognizes that games are won in the trenches.

5) Detroit Lions Select - Ezekiel Ansah / DE / BYU

- If anything is clear on draft day it's that Martin Mayhew will go by his board, and strictly BPA. He's not a need based drafter and that likely will play little role on this selection for Detroit. Well Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz highly value the trenches, and I fully expect this pick to come from either the offensive or defensive line if the board shakes this way come draft day. Many will clamor for the "falling" Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher here, but I'm not 100% sold that the Lions will have them atop their boards. The Lions have expressed high levels of interest in Ziggy Ansah, meeting with him at the combine after they got a first hand look at the BYU product for a week in Mobile when they coached Ansah in the senior bowl. If anything came out of that week, it was the potential Ansah has. And nowhere is his potential more maximized than in the wide-nine alignment that the Lions run defensively. Working out of that wide-nine during the Senior Bowl game, Ansah dominated after a rough week of practice. I think Mayhew, Schwartz and the entire Lions administration will see that and take a gamble on Ansah at five over Joeckel and Fisher.

6) Cleveland Browns Select - Dee Milliner / CB / Alabama

- The Browns hiring of Michael Lombardi was interesting because I'm unsure of how much personnel control he'll be given. With the signing of OLB Paul Kruger in free agency it's clear the Browns saw their need for players who fit their new defensive scheme and can rush the passer from the 3-4 scheme. With the change in scheme to a 3-4/2-4-5 defense under new coordinator Ray Horton, the Browns are likely going to be playing a lot of man coverage and some press man at that. Joe Haden has one corner spot locked down, but opposite him Sheldon Brown is a free agent and Buster Skrine better suited to at most a nickel role. The Browns were 25th against the pass last year and can stand to upgrade at corner. Milliner is a quality press man corner who blew up the combine with an impressive showing in the forty, and impressive measurables. With Joe Banner, who appears to be a big numbers guy, in charge Milliner's impressive physical tools and production will likely be appealing; and Milliner is a typical Ray Horton player, a corner who is very physical and showcases great speed. Throw in Michael Lombardi and Nick Saban's good relationship and I fully expect Milliner to come off the board at six.

7) Arizona Cardinals Select - Luke Joeckel / OT / Texas A&M

- This is one of the tougher picks in the draft to project because of this specific scenario. No question the Cardinals will be ecstatic if both Joeckel and Eric Fisher are available to shore up a line that allowed an NFL worst 58 sacks this past season. New GM Steve Keim is a pure BPA/BVA drafter and it's clear that his selection here will be made straight off of his board. But I believe that Keim will look at his board and have Joeckel atop it. A technician who though not elite athletically showcases elite balance, refined footwork and the ability to mirror at a high level. In Arians vertical passing attack and ZBS I think there's a strong case to be made for Eric Fisher, but Joeckel profiles well to a zone blocking team and would allow Nate Potter to move inside to guard while Levi Brown and Bobby Massie could battle it out for starting right tackle. An improved offensive line could help keep Drew Stanton or a QB healthy while drastically improving his performance. But if Geno Smith is still on the board at #7? It's hard to see the Cardinals passing that up.

8) Buffalo Bills Select - E.J. Manuel / QB / Florida State

- I fully expect to get absolutely destroyed by Bills fans for this selection, but I think it's the option that the Bills will go. Now full disclosure I expect the Bills to either trade down here or trade up from the second round and select their guy at QB in the mid/late first, but I don't project trades. So this is what we are left with. With all of that said, it's not improbable. All the talk is about Barkley rising up boards, but I think E.J. Manuel is the guy moving on up. He's killed the draft process, winning senior bowl MVP and performing very well at the senior bowl. GM Buddy Nix loves taking Southern guys, almost always takes guys from the SEC/ACC and Manuel fits the bill. It's clear the Bills are looking for a QB, and I think a trade up for Geno Smith could be in the cards. But Manuel may be their second choice. He fits Doug Marrone's offense better than people realize, he's a naturally talented player who has a good release, the ball flies off his hands and is underrated in his accuracy, especially down the field. He has experience in the zone read (something Marrone added to his offense last year at Syracuse and may bring to the NFL), he has experience under center, and experience making multiple reads. Manuel's footwork is not refined yet, sometimes he doesn't get enough depth on his drops and he is far from consistent. But those are coachable flaws. I see him rising up draft boards come April, and I don't think this is as unrealistic as it seems and with Manuel hitting on a lot of Buddy Nix traits (experienced player from the SE, productive and a Senior Bowl participant) I think that Buffalo is a likely landing spot for him.

9) New York Jets Select - Dion Jordan / OLB / Oregon

- The Jets are put in a tough spot here having to choose between a playmaker in Cordarrelle Patterson and a pass rusher in Dion Jordan. A trade down would be ideal, but if they stay here I anticipate Patterson being the selection. Idzik brings with him the Seattle influence, where they generally drafted best player available for a need position. I anticipate Idzik bringing this philosophy to New York, and I think there's a clear lack of pass rushers on the roster at this point and time for the Jets. Garrett McIntyre and Ricky Sapp are not long term answer at the OLB position, and Rex Ryan knows that as well as anyone. Ryan would have a field day with an elite athlete and playmaker off the edge in Dion Jordan, who has the versatility to line up all over the field, play with his hand in the dirt in nickel situations, rush from a stand up position and allow a lot of creative scheming and disguising that Ryan loves so much. With Jordan's natural bend, flexibility and top end speed it's hard to imagine Ryan and Idzik allowing Jordan to make it past them at 9, even with the potential value Cordarrelle Patterson could bring.

10) Tennessee Titans Select - Bjoern Werner / DE / Florida State

- GM Ruston Webster has indicated pretty clearly that this team needs to improve at defensive end and safety, and I think those are very likely positions to be addressed here like Werner and Jonathan Cyprien on the board. But I think the top choice here, Kenny Vaccaro, is someone who the Titans will downgrade, if not take off their board entirely, for character concerns/off-field issues. I know they are meeting with him soon, but I think that unless he impresses them it's unlikely he's the pick based on Munchak and Webster's values. Werner is a strong possibility as well here, but Webster has shown that he will take value and best player available over need if the opportunity arises and I think Werner is a good meeting of the two. Derrick Morgan showed some promise this past season and definitely has given indications that he is the type of player the Titans can build around at one end spot. But Kam Wimbley isn't more than a solid rotational player, and behind the two the Titans lack depth in a big way. Werner's stock has supposedly fallen but he's a player who flashes a great first step and underrated awareness and I think that Webster and Munchak will see some great value in Werner at ten and opt for him to upgrade the pass rush long term for the Titans.

11) San Diego Chargers Select - Eric Fisher / OT / Central Michigan

- I would be very surprised if draft day shakes out this way, as one Fisher makes his way past eight I'd expect a host of teams - including San Diego to call and inquire about a trade up to secure the Central Michigan Left Tackle. With that said, if Fisher falls to this pick at 11 I anticipate an easy choice for new GM Tom Telesco and new HC Mike McCoy. Fisher is just the type of guy they are looking for. Telesco is a big tape guy who will likely be a huge proponent of Fisher based on his performance on the field; and Telesco also values character highly which certainly helps Fisher who is by all accounts a hard worker, good locker room guy and was a team captain his senior year. Throw in the fact that Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt are gonna be running a zone blocking scheme up front and Fisher is a perfect match for the Chargers at this pick.

12) Miami Dolphins Select - Xavier Rhodes / CB / Florida State

- GM Jeff Ireland isn't a pure need drafter, but he's not a pure BPA drafter either - he generally will look for a combination of value and need for his picks, and I think Rhodes is that combination here. There's no question the Dolphins have a variety of needs that could be addressed here. WR is an option, but I think the Joe Philbin influence from GB leads to the Fins waiting until the second/third round range to take a WR for the WCO. Ireland has indicated he wants to get more athletic along the offensive line and has traditionally valued pass rushers highly. But a big need for the Dolphins is corner, where Sean Smith is a free agent, Jimmy Wilson very inconsistent and Richard Marshall constantly injured. Even Smith had his struggles down the stretch last year, and the Dolphins were only 27th in the NFL against the pass. Ireland loves those big corners on the outside, and Rhodes is an ideal fit - a long lanky corner who is great in the press man that Kevin Coyle frequently employs for the Dolphins.

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select - Tyler Eifert / TE / Notre Dame

- Tampa Bay has been active in free agency filling key holes, especially at the safety position with the signing of Dashon Goldson to pair with last years first rounder, Mark Barron. But what they haven't found is a viable option over the middle of the field to help Josh Freeman. Dallas Clark didn't live up to expectations this past year for Tampa and he's not going to be resigned. Behind him the Bucs only have Luke Stocker and Nate Bynham, and neither is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Mark Dominik has consistently shown he's a need based drafter, and I think he sees the need for a quality tight end to be a reliable option over the middle of the field while creating mismatches that the current Bucs roster can't with only Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson dangerous options at WR or TE. Tyler Eifert is a high character player who was a team captain and leader for the Notre Dame team, traits that Greg Schiano and Dominik have shown to value highly. Eifert was lined up all over the field for Notre Dame, everywhere from the slot, to flanker as well as in a traditional in-line tight end role. His versatility will be attractive to Schiano and the Bucs and with Mike Sullivan's offense heavily utilizing the intermediate routes Eifert is an ideal fit.

14) Carolina Panthers Select - Sheldon Richardson / DT / Mizzou

- New General Manager Dave Gettleman comes from the New York Giants, and he will bring with him the Jerry Reese/Ernie Accorsi philosophy for drafting more than likely. Expect the Panthers to go best player available here, and expect them to show that they place more value on the defensive line and the cornerback position. Certainly, Lane Johnson makes a lot of sense here for the Panthers. He fills a big need at LT or RT (pending where Jordan Gross moves to next year) he fits the Panthers offensive scheme well and he could help the Panthers protect their investment in Cam Newton. But with the way that Gettleman and Jerry Richardson value other positions and have valued the offensive line, I'm inclined to believe they won't have Lane Johnson as their top player on the board here while Richardson is a defensive tackle who has elite athletic ability and very underrated lower body strength. An elite pass rusher with a high motor and incredible athletic ability, Richardson can push the pocket and penetrate at very high levels and is a prototype three-tech for the Panthers scheme.

15) New Orleans Saints Select - Tank Carradine / OLB / Florida State

- GM Mickey Loomis has traditionally valued the skill positions (WR, RB, CB) and pass rusher highly. I don't think that this year will be any different. Coming off of a season in which the Saints were unable to rush the passer consistently, recording only thirty sacks and were by far the worst defensive team in the NFL, allowing 440 yards per game as much as Loomis has generally been a value with need drafter, I think that this year he and Sean Payton realize that this pick has to be on the defensive side of the ball, even with Lane Johnson still available. Pass rusher is certainly a strong option, with the Saints struggling to get after the passer and the switch to the 3-4 leaving the team without great schematic fits at OLB. Junior Gallette may have one spot locked down, but opposite Gallette there's no one on the roster who can fill that void. Tank Carradine may seem like an odd fit in the 3-4 defense that Rob Ryan is bringing to the Bayou, but I think he'll surprise in his schematic versatility. A pass rusher with violent hands, good burst and a variety of moves in his arsenal, Carradine is surprisingly comfortable in space and even played LEO for Florida State defensively this past year. He's 276 pounds, but I think that he may be fine playing as a 3-4 rush LB opposite Gallette and if he put on weight he has the long arms arms and strength to anchor as a 3-4 DE situationally as well. Rob Ryan will love his versatility and I think that because he's working out prior to the draft, many of the concerns over his ability to recover from his injury will be answered. And with Ryan's heavy utilization of 46 fronts, Carradine can shift to DE at times as well. Kenny Vaccaro is a strong possibility here for a defense that under Rob Ryan will probably play a lot of cover-1, where Vaccaro would fit in very well.


16) St. Louis Rams Select - Cordarrelle Patterson / WR / Tennessee

- With Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack on the board many will clamor for them to be the pick to upgrade an interior line that was quite lackluster this past season. As a need-based drafter largely, Les Snead sees the lack of playmakers on the roster for the Rams, and I think he wants to address that in the first round of this draft. And some will ask for Keenan Allen or Nuk Hopkins here, but neither are pure vertical threats, both are intermediate-underneath receivers who aren't dynamic after the catch and lack elite top end speed. Patterson is quite the opposite. A gamebreaking talent who has elite top end speed, ridiculous change of direction ability and elusiveness that is rare for players of his size, Patterson can fill the void for a Rams team that is lacking in playmakers on the outside to help Sam Bradford, who has an underrated deep ball - which Patterson can capitalize upon. Patterson's off the field issues may be a sticking point for GM Les Snead, but as we saw last year with Snead and Fisher's selection of Janoris Jenkins the Rams are not opposed to taking players with some character question marks if they provide great value.


17) Pittsburgh Steelers Select - Johnathan Hankins / NT / Ohio State

- While everyone seems to have soured on Hankins, I think people will be somewhat shocked come draft day when the big fella goes within the first round. The Steelers have a clear need at the nose tackle position where nose tackle Casey Hampton is a free agent and at the end of his career, Alameda Te'amu is unproven and a bit of a loose cannon and Steve McClendon a question mark at this point. Hankins clearly fits the bill for a typical Kevin Colbert pick as a high upside underclassmen who was productive in college playing for a major school team who fills a need. Add in the fact that Colbert and the Steelers have shown a propensity for taking OSU players and Hankins starts to make more and more sense. Only adding to his value is his versatility at 320 pounds Hankins lined up everywhere from zero to five technique for Ohio State and has the versatility to do so for the Steelers. Questions about his motor are overblow as Hankins almost never came of the field for the Buckeyes, playing more snaps than would likely be expected of any 320 pounder in college. His versatility, potential and talent will appeal to the Steelers and I think he's a likely selection here at pick 17.

18) Dallas Cowboys Select - Kenny Vaccaro / S / Texas

- As much as Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack each make a ton of sense here I think it's very unlikely that the Cowboys take an offensive lineman, let alone an interior lineman in the first round of the draft this year. Jerry Jones has shown time and time again that he doesn't highly value the offensive line and Tyron Smith was the exception. With that in mind, a lot of rumors have indicated that if Kenny Vaccaro makes it to this pick there's no way Dallas passes on him. I tend to believe in these rumors. Jerry Jones loves guys from the Southwest and has shown a tendency to draft Texas players. Jones has shown that he's not afraid to take guys like Vaccaro who have some off the field issues, and throw in Vaccaro's leadership skills and I think Jones will be more than willing overlook those issues - especially considering how highly Jerry has valued defensive backs in the past. With Gerald Sensibaugh recently released, it's clear that the Cowboys need to upgrade the safety position with the Cowboy top player on the roster at that position Barry Church. Vaccaro is a versatile safety who can play in the slot at an elite level and closes downhill quickly when filling the alley in the run game.

19) New York Giants Select - Chance Warmack / OG / Alabama

- The Giants and GM Jerry Reese have historically not valued offensive lineman highly, and usually prefer to address the position in the mid rounds. But Reese is also a firm believe in the BPA philosophy and he's shown throughout the years he will trust his board and look for the top player available at his pick. With that in mind I tend to believe that the Giants will be deciding between Warmack and Cooper here. Cooper is the better athlete, but the Giants under Kevin Gilbride have run a man blocking scheme where Warmack fits better. It's a close call as the Giants love pulling guards, an area where Cooper excels, but Warmack's road grading ability in a power/man blocking scheme makes the difference in the end. A talented big man who understands angles and plays with great leverage, Warmack is someone who can instantly upgrade the Giants running game with Chris Snee's play declining and Kevin Boothe a free agent who may not be retained.

20) Chicago Bears Select - Tavon Austin / WR / West Virginia

- With the hiring of head coach Marc Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer, a shift in philosophy was signified, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Expect more multiple-WR sets, quick passing and a pass-heavy attack from the Bears, and this fits with Phil Emery's philosophy as well. Emery has shown that he values playmakers and athletes over offensive lineman, tending to take WR's in the early rounds of the draft while OL in the middle rounds. With that in mind I fully expect this pick to be a playmaker on the outside who can help provide weapons for Jay Cutler in Kromer and Trestman's new pass heavy attack. Tavon Austin makes a lot of sense here as Trestman and Kromer are all about mismatches and getting the ball to playmakers quickly and in space. Austin can line up all over and touch the ball in a multitude of ways and can even replace Devin Hester as the return man for the Bears. Jonathan Cooper is a possibility here but Emery generally hasn't valued the offensive line as highly as playmakers.

21) Cincinnati Bengals Select - Lane Johnson / OT / Oklahoma

- Working under the assumption that current Right Tackle Andre Smith won't be resigned due to his outlandish asking price of nine million dollars a year, I think the Bengals will opt to replace him with Lane Johnson, an elite athlete at left tackle who has the ability to move to the right side as well. The Bengals have already shown interest in Johnson interviewing him at the combine and Johnson is underrated in his impact in the run game. With a frame that can put on some pounds and add lower body strength, Johnson has a high ceiling and as a major conference player fits the profile of many past Bengals pick along with their renewed emphasis on the offensive line. Because Smith won't be retained it fills a need - something the Bengals have done with need based drafting in the early rounds recently. And remember that Andrew Whitworth is 31 and Lane Johnson can ultimately be groomed as his replacement. LB, WR and S are options but in the Marvin Lewis era the Bengals haven't taken a safety in the top fifty, and I don't expect that to change here - especially with Vaccaro off the board at this point. LB is an option but the Bengals recognize that the offense rather than the defense was the unit that needs more improvement this offseason. WR will give the most pause, as the Bengals could use be a gamebreaker opposite A.J. Green - but I tend to believe that Marvin's belief that this team needs to get more physical up front and improve along the offensive line will lead Johnson to be the selection, with young receivers like Mo Sanu and Marvin Jones still developing.

22) St. Louis Rams (from Washington) Select - Jonathan Cyprien / S / Florida International

- Les Snead and Jeff Fisher have shown based on their pasts and their tenure together in St. Louis that the Rams will be a team that more than likely will go best player available at a position of need. Being put in this spot on draft would be absolutely ideal for the Rams, leaving them with a player who provides them with elite value on the interior line in Cooper; and the Rams interior line struggled last year at times. But I'm not 100% sold that Snead and Fisher think that interior offensive line is the area to address. Fisher has indicated that he's quite high on youngster Rokevious Watkins, and I think they will give Watkins a shot next year as the starter at LG, and because of this I'm not of the belief that Snead and Fisher are going to take offensive guard even if it's a position of need in the view of the fans. Well without question safety is an area of big need for the Rams with Quintin Mikell cut and both Craig Dahl and Darian Stewart struggling (and currently free agents). Les Snead has consistently indicated that he highly values the Senior Bowl, and last year he took three senior bowl players in the second round of the draft. No one showed better at the SR Bowl than Cyprien who showed both the mental and physical attributes needed to be successful at the next level, and even showcasing elite leadership skills - something Snead likes out of his players, and all coaches appreciate. With a high motor, a physical style and the versatility to play in the box, as a blitzer and even in single high thanks to impressive range and ball skills Cyprien is a first round caliber safety prospect who fills a big need for the Rams.

23) Minnesota Vikings Select - Arthur Brown / LB / Kansas State

- The Vikings recently resigned outside linebacker E.J. Henderson but with Jasper Brinkley not retained - with reason - linebacker is still a need. Both Henderson and Brinkley are solid linebackers, but each has struggled mightily in coverage for the Vikings leading to issues against the pass, especially against passes over the middle of the field. Rick Spielman has consistently shown to be a needs based drafter, and I think he recognizes this lack of linebackers with coverage ability and the hole at middle linebacker where Tyrone McKenzie and Audie Cole are unproven and not reliable starters. Arthur Brown is one of the five best players in this class by my estimation and an elite athlete at the linebacker position with a great football IQ and instincts to match. In Leslie Frazier and Bill Musgrave's cover-2 heavy defense Brown is a great fit with the fluidity, ball skills and instincts to thrive, not to mention as a two time captain and high energy leader for Kansas State he has many of the traits that Rick Spielman has valued.

24) Indianapolis Colts Select - Jonathan Cooper / OG / North Carolina

- The Colts have been aggressive in Free Agency, addressing their key needs and spending much of their forty million dollars in cap room on guys like Ricky Jean-Francois and Laron Landry who are expected to start right away, and fit the transitions the team is making schematically on both sides of the ball. That's in line with what Ryan Grigson wants to do, fill holes via free agency and in the draft select best player available - something he did last year. The Colts signed offensive guard Donald Thomas and OT Godser Cherilus to start right away for an offensive line that struggled to keep Andrew Luck upright at time, allowing 41 sacks a year ago. Thomas especially signifies the change up front for the Colts where it appears they are looking to get somewhat more athletic with the move to a quick passing west coast offense. With Jonathan Cooper still on the board it's hard to see Grigson and company passing on the value he provides here. An athletic offensive guard with incredibly quick feet, Cooper has a mean streak in the run game and the light feet and heavy hands needed to excel in the pass game. The Colts want to build around Andrew Luck and I think they will view Cooper as BPA here, sealing the deal for this pick.

25) Minnesota Vikings (From Seattle) Select - Robert Woods / WR / USC

- After the trade of really the only weapon on this roster at WR in Percy Harvin the Vikings cupboard is basically bare at WR behind the newly signed Greg Jennings, where they are left with the inconsistent and unreliable (albeit talented) Jerome Simpson as their number two option. The Vikings offense will never be a pass first attack with Adrian Peterson healthy and in his prime, but Rick Spielman has shown that he will look at need heavily when drafting while also weighing value. Defensive tackle and Sylvester Williams is a strong possibility here, but Spielman and the Vikings have shown that they are willing to take falling defensive lineman in the second-fourth round area rather than using a first rounder on one. With the depth of this DT class I think Spielman will opt to use this pick on a playmaker on the outside to help Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel. Woods may shock some, going over Nuk Hopkins and Justin Hunter among others, but I think he fits best in the Vikings west coast offense which puts a premium on precise route runners and quickness rather than size and vertical ability. Woods is very comfortable on the underneath and intermediate routes, and with Christian Ponder working almost exclusively in these areas Woods can fit seamlessly, also coming from a WCO at USC helping him to adapt to the terminology and understand the concepts and route trees of this offense. With soft hands, quick feet, good elusiveness, a great feel for the route tree and the nuances of the position, Woods is ready to play from day one and fits well into the Vikings offense.

26) Green Bay Packers Select - Jesse Williams / DT / Alabama

- Ted Thompson may be one of the most unique drafters in the NFL, with strict physical criterion and a clear profile for what he prefers to do in the draft year after year. While the Packers have serious need as both WR and RB, I find it very unlikely that Thompson fills either of these needs with selections here in the first round, as historically he never takes wideouts or running backs in the first round preferring to address the positions in the mid to late rounds of the draft. Similarly, Thompson has been content to draft safeties from the second round on and though this position is as well a serious need with Charles Woodson cut and no long term answer currently on the roster I can't see him breaking this trend here though D.J. Swearinger is very attractive here in the draft. With that in mind, one thing that we have consistently seen from Thompson is he highly values the trenches and drafts with foresight - often addressing needs for the future via the draft. Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, C.J. Wilson and Mike Neal all have contracts up after the 2013 season and will be unrestricted free agents in that offseason. There's no doubt the Pack won't be able to resign all of them, and knowing how highly Thompson values the defensive line I expect him to look to this position in the draft this year if the value is there. And Jesse Williams provides that value. A stout 310 pounder who has the versatility play everyone from the nose to five tech, he has underrated athletic ability with surprising quickness and incredible lower and upper body strength - Thompson loves those powerful defensive lineman. Williams can fill multiple roles on the line and take over for some of the departing defensive lineman in a year.

27) Houston Texans Select - Sylvester Williams / DT / North Carolina

- The Texans have shown during Rick Smith's tenure that they will generally be a need based drafting team with an eye towards value. There's no question that the Texans have serious needs worth considering at wideout, nose tackle and inside linebacker. All three are viable options for a selection here in the first round, but as we have seen in the past Rick Smith generally values the trenches higher than all other units/positions following the philosophy that the closer to the ball you play, the more valuable you are. In Wade Phillips one gapping 3-4 defense, the nose tackle isn't asked to fill the traditional role that the NT plays in most 3-4 base defenses. Phillips loves nose tackles who have good quickness and the ability to penetrate and be disruptive. Shaun Cody is a free agent and not likely to be retained. Even if Cody is retained he has been mediocre at best for the Texans and isn't the ideal fit for one of the most critical positions on the Texans roster. Earl Mitchell is a solid rotational NT, but he isn't the guy they want to start at the position or play the lions share of the snaps. Sly Williams is fits the Wade Phillips NT position to a tee, an elite athlete with incredible burst off the snap and great quickness. He's one of the most disruptive players in this draft class and has the ideal frame (6'3/313) to play the role. And Williams provides the additional benefit of being able to stay on the field as a pass rusher in the Texans nickel package if needed. A high character player with a great story and an even better work ethic, he fits the bill for a Rick Smith pick.

28) Denver Broncos Select - Eddie Lacy / RB / Alabama

- John Elway and John Fox are smart, they realize that Peyton Manning only has a few years left and they are clearly in a win right now mode. Well what this roster lacks is a physical running back who is a real threat to pound the football between the tackles. Willis McGahee is 31 years old and has had issues with fumbles. He likely doesn't have a ton of time left, and behind him Knowshon Moreno is constantly injured and not a quality back. Lacy is a two down player, but he provides great value and can add balance to a Broncos offense that doesn't have a great running attack despite playing behind a line that is quite solid. A violent runner with very quick feet, a great spin move and the ability to run through arm tackles Lacy is the consensus top back in this draft class and he fits well into the Broncos power run game, with experience running behind zone blocking at Alabama and having the skillset to run successfully in a man blocking scheme as well. A very athletic player from the south, he fits the profile that John Elway has preferred (somewhat) thus far into his tenure.

29) New England Patriots Select - David Amerson / DB / NC State

- I'd be absolutely shocked if Bill Belichick opts to stay at pick 29 and doesn't attempt to trade down in a draft filled with mid round talent and the ability to find good scheme fits later in the draft. But if they stay at 29 and the board falls this way, I think Amerson is a very likely pick. Recently we've seen Belichick and the Patriots more highly value defensive backs taking players like Tavon Wilson, Ras-I Dowling and Devin McCourty high in recent drafts. But unfortunately for the Patriots they still don't have the personnel needed to be successful in the pass game, as evidenced by a defense that allowed 271.4 yards per game through the air - 29th in the NFL. As a largely needs based drafter who highly values schematic fit, expect the Patriots to look for a long limbed defensive back who has good potential to play press and zone coverage with high level ball skills. Amerson had an up and down junior season, struggling with keeping his eyes in the backfield and taking improper angles. But as a long limbed athlete with good speed and the elite ball skills he fits well into what Belichick wants to do on the back end defensively. And maybe just as appetizing for the Patriots is the potential Amerson has to move to safety a la Devin McCourty.

30) Atlanta Falcons Select - Jamar Taylor / CB / Boise State

- Thomas Dimitrioff has consistently shown to be a needs based drafter and looking at the Falcons roster it's quite clear that cornerback is a serious need after the release of starter Dunta Robinson. Brent Grimes is a free agent who may or may not be retained and is coming off of an achillies injury while Asante Samuel, the most reliable corner currently on the roster for the Falcons had some shoulder problems and struggled to stay healthy over the course of the season. With these problems and some inconsistent secondary play the Falcons weren't great against the pass, allowing 242.4 yards per game through the air - only good for 23rd in the NFL. Taylor is a three year starter who showcased great athleticism at the combine. Largely overlooked in this deep corner class, with fluid hips, great ball skills and a physical playing style Taylor has a case as one of the best at his position in this draft class. He has experience playing zone coverage and can play slot or on the outside, both attributes that the Falcons will like. And as a team captain who played very well in the senior bowl and is a high character individual he meets the Dimitrioff mold making him a likely selection here at 30.

31) San Francisco 49ers Select - D.J. Swearinger / S / South Carolina

- Trent Baalke has done a great job thus far as the GM of the 49ers, with an aggressive approach to adding personnel be it via free agency the draft or trading. And Baalke has been quite clear in his philosophy in the draft, taking a largely need based approach to the draft especially in the early rounds. With the loss of Dashon Goldson to the Buccaneers via free ageny and with Donte Whitner's contract up after the 2013 season it's clear that the 49ers have a serious need in the defensive backfield at the safety position and one that may need to be addressed in the first round of the draft here. Swearinger is a physical safety who fills the alley well in the run game, and plays with an aggressive mentality. Maybe most attractive to Baalke and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is Swearinger's versatility, a trait that the 49ers have consistently valued highly in this regime. In fact, at South Carolina Swearinger often played slot/nickel corner, and even at times played both the field and boundary corner at high levels thanks to his good foot speed, solid ball skills and fluid hips. The niners and Fangio can line him up all over, using his versatile skillset to cover the slot, to cover tight ends and play heavily in the sub packages at the very least. With all that in mind, I think the run on DB's continues here with Swearinger as the selection.

32) Baltimore Ravens Select - Alec Ogletree / ILB / Georgia

- GM Ozzie Newsome has shown that he is all about adding value in the draft, and that has been a successful mold as evidenced by the Ravens winning the super bowl this past season. But with the youth movement this past season and the Ravens roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball, undergoing heavy levels of turnover in the starting lineup change is clearly the way. Dannell Elerbe is now gone to Miami and Ray Lewis is heading off into the sunset after retiring on top of the football world. The Ravens aren't entirely devoid of talent at ILB, but they have serious question marks. Josh Bynes is unproven and Jameel McClain can be the answer as the thumper ILB in the 3-4 but he had a spinal cord contusion that is a serious question mark. Alec Ogletree is an elite athlete at the linebacker position, and he fits well next to McClain in the Ravens 3-4. Ozzie Newsome has shown that he isn't afraid of taking risks on falling players, and with Ogletree having experience in a 3-4 at Georgia the Ravens can see more directly how he fits into their scheme. And as a 3-4/4-3 hybrid team, Ogletree can line up on the weakside as well as in the middle in those 4-3 sets that the Ravens will use - not to mention that in a pass first league Ogletree can stay on the field for three downs thanks to his fluid hips, good ball skills and high level athleticism.
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ark23


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SECOND ROUND

33. Jacksonville Jaguars Select - Johnthan Banks / CB / Mississippi State
- The Jaguars desperately need corners after the loss of Derek Cox to free agency and David Caldwell has said he will be a need based drafter. Banks is a long limbed corner with great size, fitting the Gus Bradley prototype on the outside.

34. San Francisco 49ers (from KC) Select - Joe Kruger / DE / Utah
- Trent Baalke has shown he's not afraid of taking players that may not be the consensus top pick because he trusts his board. A need based drafter, Baalke sees that Justin Smith is now 33 years old and a free agent after the 2014 season; and adding Kruger - a long DE with some potential to put on weight - can help the Niners find their long term answer at this position.

35. Philadelphia Eagles Select - Justin Pugh / OT / Syracuse
- In Chip Kelly's high octane offense, the Eagles need to find offensive lineman with good movement skills, and high level athletic ability. Pugh doesn't have ideal size for OT, but he can line up at both RT and LT and may even be able to move inside to offensive guard. With a great understanding of angles and positioning he can be a starter right away at a variety of positions for Philly.

36. Detroit Lions Select - Jarvis Jones / OLB / Georgia
- Martin Mayhew, year in and year out, has shown he is not afraid of taking players with injury questions and he will take the best player available on the board. In this situation I think it's Jones, who can play SLB in a 4-3 in a Von Miller type role, with the potential to even put his hand in the dirt at time, and with Justin Durant still a free agent Jones could step in day one as a starter at SLB.

37. Cincinnati Bengals Select - Sio Moore / ILB / UConn
- The Bengals have largely been a need based drafting team of late, and with Thomas Howard still unsigned the Bengals only have one starter in the LB group as of now in Taze Burfict. Moore is a great athlete with the versatility to play all three LB positions and can play in nickel packages thanks to his fluid hips and quick feet.

38. Arizona Cardinals Select - Mike Glennon / QB / NC State
- Steve Keim has indicated he will be a clear BPA drafter, but he likely recognizes that while Drew Stanton can be a solid stopgap at QB he is unlikely to be the long term answer at the position. Glennon has very good arm talent and though inconsistent with his accuracy and footwork (especially when forced off his spot) he is a great fit in Bruce Arians vertical offense.

39. New York Jets Select - Matt Barkley / QB / USC
- Even if the Jets do sign Kevin Kolb, it's unlikely that new GM John Idzik will feel comfortable enough with the talent currently on the roster at QB not to make an addition via the draft. Barkley is a very good fit in Marty Mornhinweg's west coast offense and shows good anticipation and ball placement along with a lot of experience operating a very similar offense in college.

40. Tennessee Titans Select - Darius Slay / CB / Mississippi State
- Slay burst into the national spotlight at the combine with his blazing forty time, but he's more than that. GM Ruston Webster has shown that he generally is willing to go BPA in the early rounds while going with need based selections in the middle rounds. Slay will be higher on boards than people expect and fits the Titans varied coverages because of his ability to play both press and off-man/zone, which he played heavily at Mississippi State.

41. Buffalo Bills Select - Justin Hunter / WR / Tennessee
- In Buddy Nix's tenure as GM he has not been at all shy to go BPA over need, and Nix has also highly valued playmakers. Hunter is a leggy wideout with elite athletic ability, great straight line speed and the ability to go up and get the football - something the Bills lack at WR right now and Buddy Nix has indicated he wants to add to the offense. And as a Tennessee player, he's a prospect coming from the SEC/South East where Buddy Nix almost always selects his players from.

42. Miami Dolphins Select - Damontre Moore / DE / Texas A&M
- Jeff Ireland has been a needs meeting value based drafter and I don't anticipate this changing in this draft. While the Dolphins do have Cam Wake at one end, he is 31 years old and opposite him is Jared Odrick who is a pure run stopper who is best suited to playing inside at defensive tackle. Moore is a high motor player who produced consistently in college, and I believe the Dolphins will feel comfortable taking him and inserting him into their defensive line rotation.

43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select - Blidi Wreh-Wilson / CB / UConn
- GM Mark Dominik has been a stringent needs based drafter throughout his tenure, so I entirely expect the Bucs to look for a corner at this point in the draft because of the lack of talent on the roster at CB currently. Wreh-Wilson is a high character two time team captain who fits perfectly into the Bucs cover-2 scheme and also meets many of the traits Dominik looks for in his draft selections.

44. Carolina Panthers Select - Terron Armstead / OT / Arkansas Pine-Bluff
- This is GM Dave Gettleman's first draft so it'll be interesting to see what approach he takes, but it's hard to see the Panthers not addressing their issues along the offensive line in the first two rounds. Jordan Gross is 32 and Byron Bell is not a quality starter at RT and these drawbacks hurt the Panthers offensively. Armstead can be the long term answer at LT thanks to his quick feet and high level athleticism.

45. San Diego Chargers Select - Manti Te'o / ILB / Notre Dame
- I think it's unlikely Te'o makes it out of round one, but this is the way the board falls. Tom Telesco has clearly indicated he will be a BPA meets need drafter, and I think he will view Te'o as the best player on the board because of his great fit with the Chargers as a thumper in the 3-4 defense, thanks to his high football IQ, and ability to get downhill in the run game - and with Takeo Spikes released the team lacks a thumper to play next to Donald Butler.

46. St. Louis Rams Select - D.J. Fluker / OG / Alabama
- The Rams and Les Snead seem to be going toward a need-based drafting approach by taking the best player at a need position. I actually think plenty of teams will view Fluker as an offensive guard where the Rams have a big need. In the Rams man blocking scheme Fluker can thrive - as he excels in a phone booth and absolutely engulfs defensive lineman, not to mention the Rams have met with Fluker multiple times showing heavy interest in the Bama RT. If Jake Long can't stay healthy, Fluker can kick outside to RT and Saffold to LT only adding to his value.

47. Dallas Cowboys Select - Travis Frederick / IOL / Wisconsin
- The Cowboys and Jerry Jones have not valued offensive lineman highly enough to take them in the first round but in the second/third round area Jones and company have been far less hesitant to select these o-lineman. The interior line of the Cowboys is a serious weakness and Frederick can line up at offensive guard or at center. Couple that with his scheme fit in Bill Callahan's man blocking scheme and Frederick seems like a very likely pick.

48. Pittsburgh Steelers Select - Kevin Minter / ILB / LSU
- The Steelers and Kevin Colbert have traditionally highly valued the linebacker position, and as a need-based drafting team (generally) the Steelers have a big need at thumper in their 3-4 scheme, where Larry Foote will be forced to start yet again at age 32. Minter is a downhill LB who is a sure tackler and comfortable playing in the box; and as a productive BCS conference player he fits the mold of past Colbert selections.

49. New York Giants Select - Michael Buchanan / DE / Illinois
- GM Jerry Reese is a BPA drafter who has consistently valued the defensive line above all. And Reese absolutely loves long athletes along the front seven. Buchanan fits the mold as a 6'7 DE/SLB hybrid who can rush from a stand up position or put his hand in the dirt.

50. Chicago Bears Select - Kyle Long / OG / Kentucky
- Phil Emery has been a best value available at a need position drafter. I expect that if the board falls this way Long will be the selection. A powerful offensive guard with very quick feet, he fits very well into the Bears ZBS and has the versatility to play offensive tackle or inside at offensive guard.

51. Washington Redskins Select - Matt Elam / S / Florida
- GM Bruce Allen has shown to be a need based drafter rather than a pure BPA selector. No position is of bigger need for Washington than safety, where the Redskins have a lot of question marks that certainly affected their poor pass defense (281.9 yards per game allowed). Elam is a physical player who isn't afraid to stick his nose in the run game and has great closing speed and versatility to line up in the box or even cover the slot.

52. Minnesota Vikings Select - Brandon Williams / DT / Missouri Southern
- The Vikings have a big question mark along the interior defensive line, where Kevin Williams is 32 years old and no other surefire starters are currently on the roster. As a need based drafter, I think Rick Spielman will address this position by taking Brandon Williams a stout defensive tackle with quick feet and the ability to both anchor - and Spielman has been very unafraid to take small school players.

53. Cincinnati Bengals Select - Montee Ball / RB / Wisconsin
- The Bengals have a clear need at the running back position and have been quite explicit in their plans for the position, with Marvin Lewis stating a running back will be added in the draft. Ball has very good burst, great vision and the ability to be a three down RB at the next level. And while he may not be the pure "COP back" many are clamoring for, Jay Gruden and Marvin have indicated this team is not just looking for a change of pace/third down back but another physical feature back.

54. Miami Dolphins Select - Larry Warford / OG / Kentucky
- The Fins and Jeff Ireland will likely look for someone who can mesh value and need together at this point in the draft. Warford fits the bill, as the Dolphins need an upgrade at offensive guard. As a prototype sized guard with very quick feet and deceptive athletic ability he fits the Ireland mold for an o-lineman as well.

55. Green Bay Packers Select - Keenan Allen / WR / Cal
- The Packers love taking wideouts in the second/third round area so I fully expect Ted Thompson to look for a wideout here with Greg Jennings recently moving to division rivals Minnesota. Allen is a prototypical Packers WR, a WR who is a precise route runner that can play on the outside or inside with experience in the WCO.

56. Seattle Seahawks Select - Zaviar Gooden / OLB / Mizzouri
- John Schneider and Pete Carroll have largely been a need based drafting team - usually upgrading a unit rather than specific position and after their free agency splurges linebacker, especially on the weakside. Gooden fits the Carroll defensive mold at LB as a speedy LB who flies sideline to sideline and has elite athleticism.

57. Houston Texans Select - DeAndre Hopkins / WR / Clemson
- Rick Smith has generally valued the WR position pretty highly, and despite drafting Devier Posey and Keshawn Martin last year I think he recognizes the need at this position this year. DeAndre Hopkins is a precise route runner with great body control - and he has the potential to be a #2 immediately then ultimately replace Andre Johnson as the #1 wideout.

58. Denver Broncos Select - Corey Lemonier / DE / Auburn
- Elway and John Fox have shown that they will highly value pass rushers in the draft and the Broncos, with the loss of Elvis Dumervil in a very controversial release, they don't have a pure pass rusher at DE who can help Von Miller to get after the QB. Lemonier is a natural pass rusher with good bend and a great first step and he fits the John Fox mold for DE along with coming from the SEC and having plenty of experience - two things John Elway seems to prefer.

59. New England Patriots Select - Kawaan Short / DT / Purdue
- The Patriots are using more and more 4-3 under looks and finding a quality DT, especially one who can push the pocket, to play next to Vince Wilfork makes a lot of sense. Short is an inconsistent but naturally gifted DT with good burst and the ability to be very disruptive making a lot of splash plays in both the run and pass game.

60. Atlanta Falcons Select - Jaime Collins / DE / Southern Miss
- The Falcons and Thomas Dimitrioff have been a need based drafting team and with the release of John Abraham the Falcons need pass rush in a big way. Collins is a SR Bowl player from nearby in the south, two more traits Dimitrioff values, who has elite athletic ability and the potential to be a DE or SLB in a cover-2 scheme like the Falcons run.

61. San Francisco 49ers Select - Vance McDonald / TE / Rice
- With the loss of Delanie Walker the Niners were seriously hurt, as Walker was someone who allowed them to have unique personnel on the field thanks to Walker's versatility. Vance McDonald could be a prospective replacement to Walker, as McDonald at 6'3/267 has a solid frame, strong lower body and quality movement skills to go with soft hands and the ability to line up at slot reciever or flanker - roles he filled at Rice.

62. Baltimore Ravens Select - Chris Harper / WR / Kansas State
- The Ravens have serious personnel question marks at WR, where with the loss of Anquan Boldin the Ravens don't have a viable intermediate receiver as Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones are vertical threats. Harper is cut from the same cloth as Boldin, a physical reciever who attacks the football and uses his body better than any other wideout in this class.

THIRD ROUND

63. Kansas City Chiefs Select - Barrett Jones / OL / Alabama
- John Dorsey will likely bring that Ted Thompson influence to the Chiefs draft room, and I anticipate him highly valuing the trenches. Jones is a versatile offensive lineman who is a technician on the inside with the ability to play three positions at the next level, fitting well into the Chiefs ZBS.

64. Jacksonville Jaguars Select - Reid Fragel / OT / Ohio State
- David Caldwell has clearly stated he will be a need based drafter and the Jags have issues at RT, where Guy Whimper was cut and there is no answer currently on the roster. Fragel is a high character player with great athletic ability and a high ceiling who fits well into zone blocking scheme the Jags will employ.

65. Detroit Lions Select - Desmond Trufant / CB / Washington
- The Lions coaching staff got to see Trufant first hand at the SR Bowl, where he really performed at a high level. Martin Mayhew is a pure BPA drafter, and Trufant thanks to his fit into their cover-2 scheme, will likely be the best value on the board here.

66. Oakland Raiders Select - David Bass / DE / Missouri Western
- Reggie McKenzie has indicated he wants to build this team through the trenches, and he is very unafraid of taking small school players. The Raiders need someone who can run the arc and is a natural pass rusher off the edge - Bass fits that mold.

67. Philadelphia Eagles Select - Shamarko Thomas / S / Syracuse
- Thomas is an athletic high energy safety who plays with reckless abandon also flashing the versatility to line up in the box or blitz off the edge or cover the slot - traits that I'd anticipate Bill Davis and Chip Kelly will value highly. Kenny Phillips and Patrick Chung were nice signings but both have issues with injuries.

68. Cleveland Browns Select - Zach Ertz / TE / Stanford
- Ertz is a perfect fit for the Browns west coast attack with his soft hands and versatility. Both Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski absolutely love utilizing TE's in their offensive attacks, highly valuing the position.

69. Arizona Cardinals Select - Lerentee McCray / OLB / Florida
- The Cardinals will be tough to predict in Steve Keim's first draft but it seems likely they will address pass rusher at some time where there's good value. McCray is under the radar but a fluid pass rusher who can convert speed to power.

70. Tennessee Titans Select - Brian Winters / OL / Kent State
- Ruston Webster appears to be a BPA drafter but has said he's not opposed to taking an OG early in the draft, and it appears he values the offensive line highly especially powerful guys along the line. Winters is versatile and can play RT or OG in a ZBS, with the potential to take over for David Stewart down the line and start at OG right away.

71. Buffalo Bills Select - Tharold Simon / CB / LSU
- Buddy Nix has consistently valued defensive backs and specifically corners very highly in the past. Simon is a long corner who has the potential to fit into the Bills man coverage heavy defensive scheme and is from the SE - almost a necessity for Buddy Nix selections.

72. New York Jets Select - Le'Veon Bell / RB / Michigan State
- The Jets don't have a feature back currently on the roster, and Le'Veon Bell is a great fit for the Mornhinweg WCO the Jets will be utilizing, with good patience, soft hands and the ability to be a three down feature back. John Idzik knows the value of RB's coming from Seattle where bell cow Marshawn Lynch had significant value.

73. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select - Bennie Logan / DT / LSU
- The Bucs have a need at defensive tackle next to Gerald McCoy and Logan is an ideal fit as a solid 4-3 cover-2 NT who can both push the pocket and anchor - and as a need based drafter Dominik is likely to address the situation at DT.

74. San Francisco 49ers (via Carolina) Select - Markus Wheaton / WR / Oregon State
- Trent Baalke, Michael Crabtree/Anquan Boldin withstanding, has shown a preference for speed on the outside - loving burners like Kyle Williams, Ronald Johnson and A.J. Jenkins while adding Ted Ginn and Ricardo Lockette in free agency. Wheaton is a burner on the outside who has the versatility to play in the slot or as a flanker for the Niners.

75. New Orleans Saints Select - Tony Jefferson / S / Oklahoma
- The Saints secondary was the worst in the NFL last year and a lot of their problems stemmed from the safety position. Jefferson is a one of the best tackling safeties in this draft class who is very comfortable in space - and he fits well into the cover-1 and 46 looks that the Saints will be using at times. Traditionally Mickey Loomis has loved going DB, especially safety, in the 2nd-4th round area.

76. San Diego Chargers Select - Trevardo Williams / OLB / UConn
- While the Chargers did draft Melvin Ingram in the first round last year and have Jarrett Johnson at the other OLB spot, they have no depth at the position - as Larry English is the only other player on the roster at the spot and he isn't much. Tom Telesco has indicated he will be a value meets need drafter and Trevardo Williams fits the bill here - a natural edge rusher who can come in for Johnson as a pass rush specialist from day one- something this team needs desperately.

77. Miami Dolphins Select - Menelik Watson / OT / Florida State
- Jeff Ireland has been a value meets need drafter and here the Dolphins, with the loss of Jake Long, could use a solid OT. Watson is a long OT with ideal frame for a zone blocking scheme who can play on the left or the right side depending upon where Jonathan Martin plays.

78. St. Louis Rams Select - Phillip Thomas / S / Fresno State
- Les Snead has not been opposed to doubling up on positions of need in the draft in the past, and I think he may look to take two safeties with a lack of depth and quality talent on the roster. Thomas was used all over the field for Fresno State but has impressive ball skills and a penchant for making splash plays - and he wowed at the SR Bowl, something Les Snead loves to see.

79. Pittsburgh Steelers Select - Da'Rick Rogers / WR / Tennessee Tech
- Kevin Colbert has shown that he is not afraid of taking players with some questionable off the field issues and he loves taking high upside underclassmen such as Rogers - who fills a need at WR with Mike Wallace departed and Emmanuel Sanders potentially a Patriot. A physical receiver who is unafraid to work over the middle giving the Steelers the tough possession wideout that they currently lack.

80. Dallas Cowboys Select - Knile Davis / RB / Arkansas
- Jerry Jones absolutely loves those Arkansas players and Davis wowed at the combine flashing elite athletic ability, and the Cowboys do need another back to pair with DeMarco Murray who has some injury questions. Davis has great straight line speed and is actually a quality receiver not to mention he fits well with the ZBS concepts that Bill Callahan is installing.

81. New York Giants Select - Datone Jones / DL / UCLA
- Jerry Reese and Giants organization consistently value the defensive line highly, and it's been a succesful philosophy thus far. However the Giants struggled against the run this past year and need to upgrade along the line. There's a lot of depth but just as many question marks with guys like Marvin Austin, Cullen Jenkins, Shaun Rogers and Markus Kuhn potentially not players to be counted on due to lack of proven play, injuries or age. Jones is a versatile lineman that can play three tech or end who has a quick first step and potential to be a disruptive penetrating lineman.

82. Miami Dolphins (from Chicago) Select - Sanders Commings / CB / Georgia
- Jeff Ireland has shown in the past he's not afraid to double up on positions of need if he sees value there. Commings fits into the Dolphins press man scheme and has the size that Ireland covets at the position. After an impressive combine where he ran in the low 4.4's Commings may be moving into the third round area - and he can move to safety if need be

83. Minnesota Vikings Select - Leon McFadden / CB / San Diego State
- With the release of Antoine Winfield the Vikings do need some depth at the corner position - and I think with the board like this Rick Spielman will see the meeting of need and value he likes to pull the trigger on a corner. McFadden has the ability to play slot/nickel corner or on the outside in the cover-2 scheme the Vikings use thanks to his quick feet and extensive experience in zone coverage. A team captain with no off field issues, Rick Spielman should be a fan.

84. Cincinnati Bengals Select - Bacarri Rambo / S / Georgia
- The Bengals ask their safeties to each be able to do multiple things rather than have defined strong and free safeties. Rambo is very comfortable in single high/playing deep zone thanks to his good range and ball skills but also flashes impressive strength - often laying out ball carriers for big hits, though he lacks fundamentals as a tackler. The off field issues will likely not be an issue for Cincy, and though some may expect safety to be addressed earlier in the Marvin Lewis era Cincy has not taken a safety in the top fifty.

85. Washington Redskins Select - Kiko Alonso / ILB / Oregon
- While London Fletcher continues to play at a surprisingly high level, it doesn't appear likely that he has much more than a season or two left before he hangs up his cleats. The Redskins have largely been a need based drafting team since Shanahan came over as HC, and no question ILB is a need. Alonso is a versatile LB who plays faster than he times - and he's very comfortable in zone coverage making him a good schematic fit to the Redskins cover-2 heavy 3-4 scheme.

86. Indianapolis Colts Select - Quinton Patton / WR / Louisiana Tech
- Last year we saw that Ryan Grigson has made it a priority to surround Andrew Luck with all the personnel he needs to be successful and I don't think that's gonna change - you have to do everything you can to enable your investment to thrive. Patton is a great fit for the WCO that Pep Hamilton is bringing to the Colts and fills a hole for a Colts offense that lost Donnie Avery and has 34 year old Reggie Wayne as the #1 target.

87. Seattle Seahawks Select - David Bakhtiari / OL / Colorado
- The Seahawks could use some upgrading and depth along the offensive line - and so far in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era Seattle has valued offensive line highly. Bakhtiari is a versatile tackle who could also kick inside to guard, and an ideal fit for the Seahawks zone blocking scheme.

88. Green Bay Packers Select - J.J. Wilcox / S / Georgia Southern
- Ted Thompson has shown that he likes Senior Bowl players, and has taken safeties consistently in the second-fourth round range. Wilcox impressed at the SR Bowl and is a versatile player who actually played slot receiver and running back prior to his SR season. A great athlete with good character he fits the Thompson mold and seems a likely selection.

89. Houston Texans Select - Margus Hunt / DE / SMU
- Rick Smith has made a host of interesting picks in the third round - going with small school/high risk players like Jacoby Jones and Devier Posey and I think that trend continues. Hunt is going to be 26 and is very raw, hurting his stock, but he's an elite athlete who can be groomed by Antonio Smith and J.J. Watt for a year until Smith is a free agent.

90. Denver Broncos Select - Jon Bostic / ILB / Florida
- John Fox and Elway seem to have a preference for guys from the South and though Stewart Bradley was signed, it's still not clear that the team has a quality backer to play with Wesley Woodyard in the nickel packages that the Broncos will use often. Bostic can be that guy - an athletic LB who is actually very physical and attacks downhill in the run game.

91. New England Patriots Select - Ryan Swope / WR / Texas A&M
- The Pats haven't valued the WR position highly in the Bill Belichick era, generally addressing the position with second-fourth round picks. Well the Pats have been rumored to have heavy interest in Swope, and I can see it. He has the ability to play both on the outside at Flanker or in the slot and is very dangerous after the catch, fitting in well to the Pats west coast/spread passing attack. Not to mention he does the little things at a high level - something BB will love.

92. Atlanta Falcons Select - Josh Boyd / DT / Mississippi State
- The Falcons have a serious dearth of depth at DT, and Thomas Dimitrioff will likely address this at some point during the draft. Boyd has no off the field/character issues, played in the SR Bowl and has the ability to play both zero tech and three tech - allowing the Falcons to potentially incorporate some one-gap 3-4 looks into their defensive scheme. Put all of that together and Boyd sounds like a Dimitrioff selection.

93. San Francisco 49ers Select - Marcus Lattimore / RB / South Carolina
- With a host of picks and a roster filled with elite talent the Niners have the luxury of being able to take Lattimore - a first round talent on the field prior to his injuries - and not expect anything from him for the first year of his career. Throw in the fact that Trent Baalke is willing to take players with injury concerns and this seems to be a likely prospective pick for San Fran.

94. Baltimore Ravens Select - Duke Williams / S / Nevada
- With Ed Reed potentially not returning and Bernard Pollard surely not going to be a Raven next season I think Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh continue with the youth movement by adding a safety here. Williams has great ball skills, impressive range and has the ability to cover the slot in nickel situations. A high character player with a lot of starting experience and high levels of production, he fits the Newsome mold.

95. Houston Texans Select - Zac Dysert / QB / Miami (OH)
- The Texans have T.J. Yates, yes, but he's clearly not anything more than a quality backup. Matt Schaub is 31 and it remains to be seen if he's good enough to lead a team to a title. Dyerst fits the Texans offense well, and was actually mores successful when he worked under center more. And as a high character good locker room type he fits the Rick Smith mold.

96. Kansas City Chiefs Select - Gio Bernard / RB / UNC
- Bernard isn't a home run hitter like Jamaal Charles but he's a great receiver out of the backfield who fits well into a ZBS like the Chiefs will be running. Andy Reid consistently took RB's in the mid rounds during his tenure in Philly, and John Dorsey bringing his Ted Thompson influence will likely value RB's the same.

97. Tennessee Titans Select - Eric Reid / S / LSU
- Ruston Webster has essentially come out and said that safety is a position of need, and if last year was any indication it appears he prefers to look at need in the mid rounds while going BPA/BVA in the early rounds. Reid is a prototype strong safety who is very comfortable in the box, and with Jordan Babineaux released safety is more of a priority.
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Louis Friend


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really don't want Ansah at #5 and don't believe the spinal stenosis has been disproven for Jarvis Jones, but overall the mock is very well thought out. I don't like it for my team, but you did a good job overall.
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Swift21


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You gave the niners a few reaches.
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IDOG_det


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ummm...please?? I would LOVE THIS SOO MUCH. Seriously. Ansah at #5? Hell yeah. Jarvis Jones with our 2nd? HELL YEAH. I also really like Trufant (even though I personally like Lattimore, Wheaton, and Rambo over him). Seriously, this seems too good to be true.
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green24


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOVE the Jordan pick. HATE the Barkley pick. Don't like the Bell pick.

I would prefer to grab Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, or Jamie Collins in the second and Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, or Phillip Thomas in the third.
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AQuintus


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love the Arthur Brown pick for the Vikings.

Hate the Robert Woods pick, and this should tell you why?

Quote:
52. Minnesota Vikings Select - Brandon Williams / DT / Missouri Southern

55. Green Bay Packers Select - Keenan Allen / WR / Cal

57. Houston Texans Select - DeAndre Hopkins / WR / Clemson


Allen and Hopkins are better players and better prospects than Woods, and they're both available in the 2nd.
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FalconFan13


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not to bad for the Falcons i liked the needs we pickde but theirs no way i can show you these 2 guys with the talent they have at our picks and you can say your 2 are better choices Smile

1st - Jarvis Jones - Top 10 potential talent and a UGA product that would be a great pick for us and is alot better value at our biggest need.

2nd - Trufant - CB - This guy is also a 1st round CB and in the 2nd round for us would be considered a steal.

3rd - im ok with if you think the guy can play NT for us in 3-4 looks than it's fine with me.

Jones + Trufant would make almost any team drool they are both 1st round players at our 2 biggest needs. Heck their actually both even more talented than Jamar Taylor in general.
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barnaby8787


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Barkley pick made me gag
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mad props man, I can easily tell you have knowledge about Phil Emery and some of the Bears' draft tendencies. I've looked into it pretty extensively and Tavon Austin is my favorite option for us at #20... Great 2nd round pick as well.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

overall i think its a good draft.
decent amount of surprise picks like april will have.

decent draft for us. but i think kruger that early is too crazy even for balke. we wouldnt let datone fall that far. and theres also rumors we have interest in reid. i could see us taking two safetys, whitner probably wont be back after next year
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Applause
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Neutral


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Impressive work, tons of great research

I'd be worried that the Te'o pick would be better on paper than reality. We saw Takeo Spikes dropping back into coverage fairly often even though he lacked to speed to be effective. That didn't seem to deter Pagano, and that makes me wonder how we would use Te'o. I could see Te'o being used in an all-around role and really struggling in coverage at the NFL level.

The Fisher and Williams picks are very logical fits.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good pick!
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meixdaddy_10


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Brown for the Vikes at 1A and I know our GM wants continuity on the line but I just dont see how you can pass on G Cooper at that point...easily BPA. but i doubt he falls that far...if so i pull the trigger.
I dont think Indy would go with LB Brown but its a gamble i would be willing to take.

And there is a very slim chance we take Woods over Allen unless his knee is beyond messed up.

I like the pick of Williams in RD2 if we went LB/WR Rd 1 but the way this scenario plays out I would rather go WR Allen ..even though i highly doubt he falls this far..if gone Id go Hopkins

RD 3 is the right position and the round i think we pull the trigger on a big need in CB...Like the McFadden pick...but looking at the top of RD3 I see CB Trufant on the board still, i easily package my 3rd and 4th RD picks to move up and get him..that being said, there is no way in hell i think he falls that far as hes being talked about as a mid RD1 pick.

So going by your board my picks would be

RD1A OG Cooper
RD1B LB Brown
RD2 WR Allen
RD3 CB Trufant (with trade up)..if no trade id stick with McFadden

If the draft were to fall like this i would literally crap my pants..but again I cant see it happening
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