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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:11 am    Post subject: Ask Jagz... Reply with quote

Before I tell you what this thread is, you must first understand some things about me:

I have been watching the NFL since I could remember. I've seen hundreds, maybe thousands of games. However, I did not really become a true fan with the knowledge of players I have today until I started playing fantasy football. I am the most competitive person I know. When fantasy football was introduced to me... all I wanted to do is win. So I studied, I read up, and I got to know these players, these teams, and this league inside and out. My first year of playing, I was in 5 leagues. I finished first in 4 of them, and second in one of them. I'm not saying I'm an all mighty god, and I'm definitely not perfect. But when it comes to football... my mind functions in one way.. fantasy. Any time I hear news about a team or a player or anything... I think of the direct impact it will have on certain players on that team. Usually, my judgement on such things is close to being right on, but like any other human being, I can be wrong as well.

From playing fantasy football, I have realized that it is much like poker in a sense. First of all, there is a lot of luck involved. Fantasy owners and poker players both do not like to admit to this fact, but it is very true. You can't bluff your way out of every pot, and you can't just win every fantasy game. You have to have good cards... you have to have good players. Who could have predicted Marques Colston's year last year? Frank Gore's? Maybe a few people, but in many drafts, Gore was a late round pick last year... so not many people saw it coming, including myself. Fantasy football is also similar to poker in the fact that the next thing you must do to win... is make the right decisions. When to hold. When to fold. When to call. When to raise. When to bet. As different as it may sound, it is very similar to thinking of... Who to play. Who to sit. Who to draft. Who to trade. Who to drop... Among other things. While there is luck involved, there are still great poker players... and there are still great fantasy owners.

I'm not guarenteeing I win all my leagues this year... heck, I'm not guarenteeing I win any of them. I'm just giving you my background, and my thoughts on the game of fantasy football.

This thread is here for questions or any advice anyone needs regarding fantasy football. I'm sure there are a lot of people out there saying, "this guy is an idiot, why should I ask him about my team? He doesn't know anymore than I do". It's okay... I expected that. So you can go back to your experts on Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS, etc. But tell me... when was the last time they really got something right? Maybe this year... try asking the idiot. Who knows? I may get something right.

Do what you want. I am just here to do the best I can and offer any knowledge that I may or may not have.

So you can ask your friends, your family, and you can ask the experts. Or you can come in here and take part in a little thing I like to call....




Ask away...


Last edited by jagz4life on Sat May 26, 2007 2:09 pm; edited 11 times in total
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AlanFanecaFan


Joined: 13 Mar 2005
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Location: Getting hammered with Jeff Reed
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha, good stuff Jags4life.

Ok, I got one for ya.

Will Mike Martz allow Jon Kitna, Roy Williams and Kevin Jones to have solid season. I think so but I want your opinion(especcialy on Jones)

Thanks.
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Last edited by AlanFanecaFan on Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:22 am; edited 1 time in total
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DjBuddaH


Joined: 03 Feb 2006
Posts: 7969
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nice pic.......good thread. Here's a "cherry poppin" question for ya....

With TJ Duckett being added over in Washington to take away TD's and the possibility that Portis won't play week 1.....Does Clinton Portis fall out of the top 5???
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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AlanFanecaFan wrote:
Haha, good stuff Jags4life.

Ok, I got one for ya.

Will Mike Martz allow Jon Kitna, Roy Williams and Kevin Jones to have solid season. I think so but I wasnt your opinion(especcialy on Jones)

Thanks.


Let's look at Martz's past. He's an idiot for a coach (sorry Rams fans), but the man knows how to run an offense. Defensively, an idiot again. But that's not his area this year... and for the Lions, its a good thing. Roy Williams has been injury plagued his first two years in the league, but even still he's been able to put up solid yardage and 16 total touchdowns. Now, he's gotta better option at QB with Kitna and I think as the undoubted #1 WR there, he can have a fine year. Kitna is a sleeper pick, but not a guy you want to be relying on to start the season. Maybe pick him up as a backup. Like I said though, Williams can have a solid season.

Jones is a tough one to crack. He's a "break or bust" guy, as I like to call it. Statisically, he was the best RB in the NFL in the last half of the 2004 season... and that was as a rookie. Last year, he had some trouble with injuries, but couldn't produce even when healthy. Its tough to decide if it was a sophomore slump or a lucky rookie season. I'm a Kevin Jones fan though. Right now, he's almost in the same boat as Kitna. In an 8 man or so league... I'd take him as my 3rd RB, and wait to see what happens. Having him as a starter isn't that bad of an option, because you know he'll get the ball, but under Martz you have to wonder how much. Jones has more of a value at his position than Kitna, obviously, but they are kind of in the same boat if you know what I mean.

I hope that answers your question.
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AlanFanecaFan


Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 10902
Location: Getting hammered with Jeff Reed
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jagz4life wrote:
AlanFanecaFan wrote:
Haha, good stuff Jags4life.

Ok, I got one for ya.

Will Mike Martz allow Jon Kitna, Roy Williams and Kevin Jones to have solid season. I think so but I wasnt your opinion(especcialy on Jones)

Thanks.


Let's look at Martz's past. He's an idiot for a coach (sorry Rams fans), but the man knows how to run an offense. Defensively, an idiot again. But that's not his area this year... and for the Lions, its a good thing. Roy Williams has been injury plagued his first two years in the league, but even still he's been able to put up solid yardage and 16 total touchdowns. Now, he's gotta better option at QB with Kitna and I think as the undoubted #1 WR there, he can have a fine year. Kitna is a sleeper pick, but not a guy you want to be relying on to start the season. Maybe pick him up as a backup. Like I said though, Williams can have a solid season.

Jones is a tough one to crack. He's a "break or bust" guy, as I like to call it. Statisically, he was the best RB in the NFL in the last half of the 2004 season... and that was as a rookie. Last year, he had some trouble with injuries, but couldn't produce even when healthy. Its tough to decide if it was a sophomore slump or a lucky rookie season. I'm a Kevin Jones fan though. Right now, he's almost in the same boat as Kitna. In an 8 man or so league... I'd take him as my 3rd RB, and wait to see what happens. Having him as a starter isn't that bad of an option, because you know he'll get the ball, but under Martz you have to wonder how much. Jones has more of a value at his position than Kitna, obviously, but they are kind of in the same boat if you know what I mean.

I hope that answers your question.


Yep, that helps, cause I was lookin him as a great 3rd to 4th rd pick as a great #3 rb or a solid #2 option.

I see what you mean on Kitna...........Ill probably as k a fe wmore Q's before I have my draft.

Thanks.
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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DjBuddaH wrote:
nice pic.......good thread. Here's a "cherry poppin" question for ya....

With TJ Duckett being added over in Washington to take away TD's and the possibility that Portis won't play week 1.....Does Clinton Portis fall out of the top 5???


No. Here's why. The addition of Duckett isn't something I worry about for Portis regarding his fantasy points... it's more his health. It says that Washington isn't sure when Clinton will be back and healthy. However, when he is back, even with Duckett there, he's a top 5 fantasy back.

In his third year in the system, Clinton could have a bigger year than ever if he's there from the opener. He's still got a solid offensive line, and this year... a passing attack. The addition of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randel El to a passing game that already included Santana Moss and Chris Cooley actually helps Portis. As good as he is, having more offensive weapons takes attention away from him. Defenses won't stack the box against him and it'll allow Clinton Portis to be Clinton Portis. He's more used to the offense, and just getting more of the experience in it is all a back like Portis needs.

The reason I don't think TJ will take TDs away from Portis, is because Gibbs hasn't show it will in the past.

In the two years of Gibbs and Portis there here is what the other RBs did:

Ladell Betts: 2 TDs
Rock Cartwright: 2 TDs
Mike Sellers: 1 TD

So in two years, the other RBs on the team today combined for 5 TDs, while Portis had 16.

TJ Duckett will get some goalline carries, and yes he'll take some TDs from Portis. But the past shows, and Portis' own goalline ability shows that it won't be enough to take Portis out of the top 5.
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astefan


Joined: 04 Apr 2005
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Location: Germany
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can find my team under 'rate astefans team'
I'm not too happy because most people I focused on where taken right in front of me and I had to take the alternatives. I hate the fact, that I couldn't get one of the top WRs.
It difficult to get two good RB and a top WR in a 16 teams league, but I usually managed it somehow. Not this year... I picked the QB too early.
Please let me know, what you thing about my team and give me some trade advice. Because, to be honest, I don't know what to do.
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MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All right, I'm going to ask you a question I already posed to get your take on it...


I just found out last night that I have the 6th pick in the draft this coming Thursday in a 12 man league. I'm the two time defending champ in this league, but I'm having a hard time choosing who to go with in round 1 if everything goes like it's supposed to...(i.e. LT, Alexander, LJ, Tiki, then who knows) I'd be looking at Peyton with #6 and a good possibility of getting Holt in the second...but what would I do at RB? Hope for someone to fall or what? I'm honestly in a quandry right now more than usual...I don't want to get Portis because of the TD's taken by Duckett and the fact that he's hurt right now...and I don't know if Edge will be there and even if he was I don't know how the Cards running game will be.

HELP ME!

Do I go for Manning if he's there with the 6th pick or reach on someone like Rudi Johnson?

I know that Peyton also almost always is benched the last game/two (which happens to be our championship game usually) so he won't play...anyway, what should I do in your opinion?
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Prince.Malachi


Joined: 07 Jun 2006
Posts: 2651
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:01 pm    Post subject: KoRo DD and Cut...now where does that leave Willaimson Reply with quote

What value does Troy Willaimson have now? Is he the teames seccond wr? Could he end up as the #1 at the end of the year? Any stat predictions?

Thanks and great idea about your post.
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Patsfan01


Joined: 21 Feb 2005
Posts: 9121
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great idea Jagz. I have a question for you:


Outside of Steve Smith, who do you think is the next best Fantasy WR?? Is Steve Smith even #1 and who could be the #1 WR this year?? Thanks.
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jagz4life


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Joined: 01 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

astefan wrote:
You can find my team under 'rate astefans team'
I'm not too happy because most people I focused on where taken right in front of me and I had to take the alternatives. I hate the fact, that I couldn't get one of the top WRs.
It difficult to get two good RB and a top WR in a 16 teams league, but I usually managed it somehow. Not this year... I picked the QB too early.
Please let me know, what you thing about my team and give me some trade advice. Because, to be honest, I don't know what to do.


Hmm for a 16 team league, the team isn't that bad. You defintely went early on a QB, but Palmer is a good one to have.

QB, RB, TE, K, and DEF are all set. Great options at all those. Chris Simms isn't bad, but see if you could maybe upgrade that because of Palmer's health.

WR is defintely troublesome. Burleson could do well in Seattle and he'll get a chance to start, and will take advantage of defenses focusing on Alexander and Jackson. He's not a bad option, but not the best #1 option either. Glenn is another kind of make or break guy because its tough to tell what kind of year he'll put up. Mark Clayton is a guy I like though. McNair will definitely pass the ball to Mason a lot, but he also likes to spread it out, and I'm sure Clayton will get touches.

You are gonna want to trade. Find a player in your league with an overflow of WRs. Because they have that overflow, they will be weak somewhere else, especially in a 16 man league. You are strong pretty much everywhere else. You must sell your players though. Guys like Kevan Barlow. Remind them what he can do, and remind them he's coming to New York as the starter and will be in a lot better situation than he was in in SF. He could be some bait. Roddy White could be some bait too, but you might want to see how he is incorporated in that offense especially with the arrival of Lelie. If he's not getting touches early, don't hang onto him too long or you wont have any takers. Try to package some of your scraps together and see if you can come up with a decent offer.

Let me know what the offer is, what the person counters with, etc. and I'll let you know from there.
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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
All right, I'm going to ask you a question I already posed to get your take on it...


I just found out last night that I have the 6th pick in the draft this coming Thursday in a 12 man league. I'm the two time defending champ in this league, but I'm having a hard time choosing who to go with in round 1 if everything goes like it's supposed to...(i.e. LT, Alexander, LJ, Tiki, then who knows) I'd be looking at Peyton with #6 and a good possibility of getting Holt in the second...but what would I do at RB? Hope for someone to fall or what? I'm honestly in a quandry right now more than usual...I don't want to get Portis because of the TD's taken by Duckett and the fact that he's hurt right now...and I don't know if Edge will be there and even if he was I don't know how the Cards running game will be.

HELP ME!

Do I go for Manning if he's there with the 6th pick or reach on someone like Rudi Johnson?

I know that Peyton also almost always is benched the last game/two (which happens to be our championship game usually) so he won't play...anyway, what should I do in your opinion?


I want to steer you towards running backs. Running backs are golden in fantasy football. They are the people who get you the points. It's really all situational though, you don't know who is going to pick who. Let's just say, that Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, and Clinton Portis are the first five picks. Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson are sitting there waiting to be taken... make the pick. On which one you chose, it is up to you. If you are iffy on James and the Arizona situation, go with Rudi. Let me remind you though, James has been very successful before in a pass-happy offense, don't think he can't do it again. But back to back 1400 yard 12 TD years is hard to pass up with Rudi Johnson too, and you are sure of the situation he is in. So its a toss up there. Either way... you want to go running back. And in the second round... if you can, try to go RB again.
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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:54 pm    Post subject: Re: KoRo DD and Cut...now where does that leave Willaimson Reply with quote

Prince.Malachi wrote:
What value does Troy Willaimson have now? Is he the teames seccond wr? Could he end up as the #1 at the end of the year? Any stat predictions?

Thanks and great idea about your post.


It's my understanding he's the #2 behind Marcus Robinson. In a Daunte Culpepper lead offense, Troy Williamson would probably be a great option. However, right now I would tend to stay away from him.

A couple reasons why. First of all, Brad Johnson is a more of a possession passer, picking up 5-15 yards when he can to get first downs. While thats all well and good for their offense, its not creating big plays needed for fantasy. Johnson isn't known for throwing a lot of TDs and for a lot of yards, and obviously it will directly effect the WRs numbers, and being the second reciever in that kind of offense isn't someone who will put up big numbers. In only his second season in the league, its tough to say where his numbers will be, but I think he can take over the #1 spot from Robinson definitely.

The addition of Chester Taylor and Steve Hutchinson also show that Minnesota now has a running game that they could and probably will be more dependent upon this year. Running the ball more means passing the ball less... and of course, that's not good for WRs.
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jagz4life


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Patsfan01 wrote:
Great idea Jagz. I have a question for you:


Outside of Steve Smith, who do you think is the next best Fantasy WR?? Is Steve Smith even #1 and who could be the #1 WR this year?? Thanks.


There's a bunch of guys. If he was healthy, one could even say Terrell Owens. However, I won't say him right now.

Chad Johnson is an obvious candidate. It looks as though Carson Palmer will be back and ready, so having Chad is always a good option... even if Anthony Wright is behind center.

Torry Holt in a Scott Linehan offense is scary. He could be producing some big numbers this year, but Steven Jackson may be getting more time with the ball, which could take away from "Big Game". However, I wouldn't be shy about taking Holt.

Marvin Harrison is a guy you usually can't go wrong with. The most successful QB to WR tandem in NFL history isn't something to shy away from. I think the loss of Edgerrin James hurts the Colts passing game more than people think which is why I would not put Marvin at number one.

Larry Fitzgerald is a stud. A deep threat, a red zone threat... he's perfect. Having Edge and Anquan there could hurt his numbers, but he didn't have a problem putting them up last year, and I don't think he will again this year. If you mention Fitz, you have to mention Boldin as well.

Randy Moss, in my mind, the greatest fantasy WR ever. But with a new QB at the helm, and a guy not known for being the greatest all around passer, I wouldn't be too sure about Moss. If you have the opportunity to get him... sure why not, but he wouldn't be my #1.

So Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, or Larry Fitz would be my other number one.
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MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 1897
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Jagz...I'll probably do that, although I may have just traded back, we'll see...I just offered my #6 pick for the #9 and #40 picks...Good move or not?
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