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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
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Location: Quahog, RI
PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:11 pm    Post subject: Mock 4.0 Reply with quote

No FA predictions here, but there is a trade to be had.

1-27: *trade - San Francisco gets picks 1-27 and 3-88 for picks 2-37, 3-68, 4-105, 5-142, and 6-178

I really want A'Shawn Robinson. I really want Reggie Ragland. Heck, I could even go for Leonard Floyd here. All those guys will probably be off the board, as well as Billings and Spence. We could go Taylor Decker here or Jack Conklin, but the OT class is deep and we haven't shown interest in either of those guys or anyone else at the top of the class. San Francisco trades with us either to secure Paxton Lynch before division rival Arizona takes him, or Will Fuller who will provide a deep threat San Francisco has not had in years.

2-37: Vernon Butler, DL, La. Tech: Butler's versatility allows us to move him all along the DL. We could go Austin Johnson here to replace Raji at the Nose, but Butler gives us too much value and can also anchor the Nose very well.

2-57: Josh Perry, LB, Ohio State: I think we rotate him between inside and out depending on the sub-package here. Jaylon Smith makes sense, but do we wait a year for him. Perry is a plug-n-play guy initially who sets the edge well and can make the plays in the backfield we look for in our LB's. He's a bit small to play the elephant position at the moment, but the potential is there

3-68: Chris Jones, DE, Miss. St.: Jones comes in as an excellent rotational player at DE sucking up blocks while pushing the pocket on 3rd downs while using his strength to shed blockers to anchor against the run.

4-105: Jordan Jenkins, EDGE, UGA: We went with Josh Perry earlier, but Perry essentially replaces Nick Perry after the year which leaves a hole behind both CMIII and Jayrone Elliott. Oh yeah, Peppers probably retires too. Jenkins is a bit of a project player who is sliding down the boards, but can be mentored and molded under CMIII. He becomes a draft steal in 2 years' time.

4-126: Joel Haeg, OL, NDSU: Here's where our draft gets real sexy. We've got needs at both back-up OT positions and will certainly be bringing in competition after what happened last season. With Taylor and Tretter manning back-up spots on the inside, we start to look outside and Haeg is a guy on the rise who could sub in a pinch...and for a pinch currently.

4-131: Travis Feeney, ILB/DB: Feeney is a smaller LB playing OLB in a 4-3, but has the size to move inside(6-4, 230) and the speed(4.5 40) to cover when asked. Might shift to SS at the next level. 4 Shoulder surgeries are a red flag here due to an obsession for making huge hits.

4-137: Willie Beavers, OT, Western Mich.: Beavers has some technical flaws, but our coaching staff has been solid in prepping players to play earlier than expected when necessary. Beavers could be a strong candidate to replace Bulaga at some point if need be.

5-142: DJ Reader, DL, Clemson: Reader is a strong candidate to pair with Pennel at the Nose given his explosion and instincts. Weight has been a bit of an issue for him, but a good NFL training staff should take care of that problem.

5-163: Stephen Weatherly, EDGE, Vandy: Weatherly is another project at EDGE that makes the final 53 on ST ability initially while crawling up the food chain the way Elliott has.

6-200: Luke Rhodes, ILB, William and Mary: This is the scouts pick as our regional guys find someone Ted likes from the smaller schools and then they're picked. Guys like Janis and Ringo come to mind here.

7-248: Jay Lee, WR, Baylor: Obligatory WR pick. Potential RS given size and speed. Covered up by talent around him at Baylor. Might be a steal if he can outplay Abby and Janis.



Notable UDFA: Dean Lowery, DE, Northwestern; Anthony Zettel, DE/OLB, Penn St.; DJ Foster, RB, ASU; Jordan Walsh, C/G, Iowa; Jordan Lomax, S, Iowa; Josh Forrest, ILB, Kentucky; Alonzo Russell, WR, Toledo; Keenan Reynolds, RB, Navy; Tyler Johnstone, OL, Oregon; Reggie Northrup, ILB, FSU
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Skypilot


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a bad draft for those who think the 2012 draft was a stunning success. I like the R4 - 126 pick and he looks like a Packers type OL. Beavers is the flavor of the week and a possibility. I suppose TT could double down like he did with Bakh and Tretter in 2013.

Butler, of course, is high on everybody's list and should be an improvement over Raji age 30. Jones likely won't last to 3/68 and may be scooped up by a 4/3 team, which is a better fit. Reader at NT is another good pick.

The rest of the draft (even the UDFA) is overloaded at LB, while DB, RB, TE and WR are completely ignored outside of the throwaway WR pick in R7. I'm talking about challenging Adams, not getting somebody late to push Abby and/or Janis off the roster. Janis is a good-very good special team's contributor, who's speed is an asset at WR. We're going to see a changed offense in 2016, one that employed 4 and 5 WRs sets and multiple TEs with Cook and Rodgers. I would hope Thompson doesn't leave the team short again at the skill positions by drafting LBers who will get cut by camp or stashed on the PS.

Again, here are the team's current edge rushers: Peppers, Mathews, Jones, Elliott, Perry.
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Acrid Josher


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jenkins in the 4th seems highly unrealistic. I think there is a decent chance he goes mid-late 2nd before Perry, as they are very similar bodies with similar athletic testing, but Jenkins plays the premium position while Perry is an off-LOS LB.

Looks like Butler's pro day improvements have made him the new mock favorite for us in the first. I'm still not convinced he's better than Clark or Hargrave. For that reason and all 3 of them being pretty marginal value at 1.27, I much prefer what you've done here trading back if all three are still there and one is going to be our first pick.

However I'd be surprised if SF gave us such a nice bounty for a 10 spot bump at the point in this draft where the talent starts to flatten off.

Quote:
Butler gives us too much value and can also anchor the Nose very well.


Don't know about this. Anchor is his problem. Got moved far too often by double and even occasional single teams in conference USA. He isn't going to be an upgrade from Raji/Guion/Pennel in year 1, and on the contrary I expect him to have a huge learning curve on early downs where he will struggle not to get skated every play by NFL guards. Given his length he has potential to improve in year 2 with some technique and strength upgrades, but I'd be surprised if he was one of the top two options at NT vs the run as a rookie (after Pennel gets back).
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vegas492


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love it. Like the trade down scenario and it does make sense. Many teams that pick after us could take a QB, so someone may want that pick.

Like Butler.
Like Perry.
Love Jones.
Infatuated with Jenkins.
Love Haeg.
Love Feeney.
Love Beavers.
Crushing on Reader as an anchor.
Don't know about Weatherly, Rhodes or Lee. Unknowns to me.

Love this draft.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ugh. You pretty much hit the nail on the head for an ideal draft for me. Might be a tad optimistic that all those guys fall to your pick, but other than that I like it. I'd probably swap out guys that I prefer later on starting with the Feeney pick, but nothing too bad.
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GreenReign


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why wouldn't we take Fuller at 27? We need a WR, after last years debacle we need as many as we can get. Also, fine mock, however, I cannot take any mock that doesnt have us taking a punter seriously.Next to;ILB, WR, and DL, it's our biggest need.
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MantyWrestler


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really like this draft I could split hairs with you on a couple guys but I love the position you drafted and I love the idea of sliding back and getting a couple extra pics and a draft that is so deep

My first thoughts on Butler was that drafting him there to play knows I would rather have Johnson from Penn State but after seeing later where you took reader I like the pic of Butler because he can play end.

Hargrave would be my pic instead of Jones but I'm split on those two Hargrave looks like the better player now Jones has the link that gives him a higher ceiling Hargrave as more explosive power but Jones plays at a big school. I'd still going with Hargrave it wouldn't complain over that pic.

Only questionable pic is Fee only questionable pic is Feeney. Let's pretend we didn't draft him and use that pic to move up 10 or 15 spots to take Jenkins probably won't be there in the fourth and I think you nailed it
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Acrid Josher wrote:
Jenkins in the 4th seems highly unrealistic. I think there is a decent chance he goes mid-late 2nd before Perry, as they are very similar bodies with similar athletic testing, but Jenkins plays the premium position while Perry is an off-LOS LB.

Looks like Butler's pro day improvements have made him the new mock favorite for us in the first. I'm still not convinced he's better than Clark or Hargrave. For that reason and all 3 of them being pretty marginal value at 1.27, I much prefer what you've done here trading back if all three are still there and one is going to be our first pick.

However I'd be surprised if SF gave us such a nice bounty for a 10 spot bump at the point in this draft where the talent starts to flatten off.

Quote:
Butler gives us too much value and can also anchor the Nose very well.


Don't know about this. Anchor is his problem. Got moved far too often by double and even occasional single teams in conference USA. He isn't going to be an upgrade from Raji/Guion/Pennel in year 1, and on the contrary I expect him to have a huge learning curve on early downs where he will struggle not to get skated every play by NFL guards. Given his length he has potential to improve in year 2 with some technique and strength upgrades, but I'd be surprised if he was one of the top two options at NT vs the run as a rookie (after Pennel gets back).


SF would have to give us that much to move up those 10 spots value wise. In all reality, if this trade were to happen, we'd most likely swap picks with them in a few places where they have multiple picks within the first 10 picks of the latter rounds.

Jenkins is sliding down the boards and CBS now has him outside of the top-100. I too am skeptical as to whether or not he will actually fall that far. With Perry, I think he's lined up practically everywhere because of his size, but also the fact that he can set the edge very well.

Butler was not having a problem with his anchor during Sr. Bowl week as he was one of the guys to step up that part of his game. Still, if we're picking Reader in this draft or if we don't, I don't see him playing Nose all too often. I think his role at Nose would be team and scheme specific because if we're playing a pass happy team, I could see him lined up at the Nose to push the pocket.
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Acrid Josher


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
Jenkins in the 4th seems highly unrealistic. I think there is a decent chance he goes mid-late 2nd before Perry, as they are very similar bodies with similar athletic testing, but Jenkins plays the premium position while Perry is an off-LOS LB.

Looks like Butler's pro day improvements have made him the new mock favorite for us in the first. I'm still not convinced he's better than Clark or Hargrave. For that reason and all 3 of them being pretty marginal value at 1.27, I much prefer what you've done here trading back if all three are still there and one is going to be our first pick.

However I'd be surprised if SF gave us such a nice bounty for a 10 spot bump at the point in this draft where the talent starts to flatten off.

Quote:
Butler gives us too much value and can also anchor the Nose very well.


Don't know about this. Anchor is his problem. Got moved far too often by double and even occasional single teams in conference USA. He isn't going to be an upgrade from Raji/Guion/Pennel in year 1, and on the contrary I expect him to have a huge learning curve on early downs where he will struggle not to get skated every play by NFL guards. Given his length he has potential to improve in year 2 with some technique and strength upgrades, but I'd be surprised if he was one of the top two options at NT vs the run as a rookie (after Pennel gets back).


SF would have to give us that much to move up those 10 spots value wise. In all reality, if this trade were to happen, we'd most likely swap picks with them in a few places where they have multiple picks within the first 10 picks of the latter rounds.

Jenkins is sliding down the boards and CBS now has him outside of the top-100. I too am skeptical as to whether or not he will actually fall that far. With Perry, I think he's lined up practically everywhere because of his size, but also the fact that he can set the edge very well.

Butler was not having a problem with his anchor during Sr. Bowl week as he was one of the guys to step up that part of his game. Still, if we're picking Reader in this draft or if we don't, I don't see him playing Nose all too often. I think his role at Nose would be team and scheme specific because if we're playing a pass happy team, I could see him lined up at the Nose to push the pocket.


Not sure what you mean that they "have" to give us that much value wise. If you mean JJ draft value that's not a good lens. 49ers and Packers are two of several teams of late that show they don't adhere closely to that outdated chart, and value the extra picks and later rounds much more closer to reality than the JJ chart says (i.e. neither team would give up what the 49ers give up above). Pretty much the only value of that chart to TT at this point is to try to fleece teams that aren't the Pats/49ers/Seahawks/Ravens/etc who still overvalue early picks and undervalue mid-round picks.

How many snaps did you see of Butler at the SB? I didn't see any, so I'm skeptical he suddenly fixed what was a very real problem as a senior vs CUSA teams. Even if he performed well in limited reps that isn't so much a vindication as a small blip that doesn't account for all the other evidence, and likely has a lot to do with opponents not preparing specifically for him and his weaknesses (tendency to get his arms hinged).

If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).
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Frank-O


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GreenReign wrote:
Why wouldn't we take Fuller at 27? We need a WR, after last years debacle we need as many as we can get. Also, fine mock, however, I cannot take any mock that doesnt have us taking a punter seriously.Next to;ILB, WR, and DL, it's our biggest need.


Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbredaris... That's about as good as a WR corp as you can get in the NFL, especially when it comes to youth and potential. Obviously everyone lingers on the Cardinal playoff game when we were out, NELSON, COBB, ADAMS AND MONTGOMERY, our top 4 WR (excluding Jones...) but we are definitely set, in MY mind, at WR. Taking a WR in round one, let along the top 4 rounds, would be wasting away potential of the players listed... Particularly Adams/Monty/Janis/Abby.
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Acrid Josher wrote:
If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).


We're constantly shifting and rotating guys along that line. Butler can play just about any position and yes, he can emerge as a rotational Nose given what scouts reported from the Sr. Bowl. However, his value is in pushing the pocket as well as shedding on run plays away from him so he can use his burst to track down the ball carrier. What you are describing as his flaws are all things that can be fixed with professional coaching and drills.
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Acrid Josher


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).


We're constantly shifting and rotating guys along that line. Butler can play just about any position and yes, he can emerge as a rotational Nose given what scouts reported from the Sr. Bowl. However, his value is in pushing the pocket as well as shedding on run plays away from him so he can use his burst to track down the ball carrier. What you are describing as his flaws are all things that can be fixed with professional coaching and drills.


Not really. We play the vast majority of snaps with 2 or fewer down linemen in a 4-3 Under hybrid. Daniels plays the vast majority of his snaps as the 3-tech, leaving one vacancy at the 1-tech. Yes, someone needs to replace Daniels at 3-tech on a small (<10-15%) of breather snaps in the nickel, and yes we need a third linemen in the 10-20% of snaps we play 3DL (true 3-4 or heavy/goal-line), but besides that we've been very consistent in normal game situations. I don't see what role Butler slots into in mainstream packages without changing the defense. Not that I don't think it's conceivable we should/could change things up, I just haven't heard how specifically that would work yet with the personnel we have + Butler, and I'd like to know what specific changes from what we do now people have in mind when they mention this for Butler or any other player.
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blueswedeshoes


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Acrid Josher wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).


We're constantly shifting and rotating guys along that line. Butler can play just about any position and yes, he can emerge as a rotational Nose given what scouts reported from the Sr. Bowl. However, his value is in pushing the pocket as well as shedding on run plays away from him so he can use his burst to track down the ball carrier. What you are describing as his flaws are all things that can be fixed with professional coaching and drills.


Not really. We play the vast majority of snaps with 2 or fewer down linemen in a 4-3 Under hybrid. Daniels plays the vast majority of his snaps as the 3-tech, leaving one vacancy at the 1-tech. Yes, someone needs to replace Daniels at 3-tech on a small (<10-15%) of breather snaps in the nickel, and yes we need a third linemen in the 10-20% of snaps we play 3DL (true 3-4 or heavy/goal-line), but besides that we've been very consistent in normal game situations. I don't see what role Butler slots into in mainstream packages without changing the defense. Not that I don't think it's conceivable we should/could change things up, I just haven't heard how specifically that would work yet with the personnel we have + Butler, and I'd like to know what specific changes from what we do now people have in mind when they mention this for Butler or any other player.


There is no smoke like acrid smoke...it has all the sophistication of a tendril wafting away from from a twenty dollar cigar! But dude I am coming back at you with a Swisher Sweet in my teeth.

The team that drafted Khyri Thornton can just shut up and drive as all of us along for the ride toss out names from the backseat. Mike Daniels was a poor fit for our team, wasn't he? And why do we now find ourselves in two down lineman formations? I submit that Dom is tinkering with the best pieces he has. New pieces will make for new tinkering.

I get that some defensive lineman are better at anchoring and may be a better fit for Raji's spot on the line. But at some point, as happened with Daniels, the talent will be better than the fit for some of these DL in the draft. So, you are right, I can't explain how the defense will evolve to accommodate the skills of a particular defensive player, but I can imagine that talent might force them to do just that.

So, I get your point. But "hasn't" doesn't mean "can't" or "won't" with some of these talented bigs, and the same goes for Dom and his schemes.
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AlexGreen#20


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

blueswedeshoes wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).


We're constantly shifting and rotating guys along that line. Butler can play just about any position and yes, he can emerge as a rotational Nose given what scouts reported from the Sr. Bowl. However, his value is in pushing the pocket as well as shedding on run plays away from him so he can use his burst to track down the ball carrier. What you are describing as his flaws are all things that can be fixed with professional coaching and drills.


Not really. We play the vast majority of snaps with 2 or fewer down linemen in a 4-3 Under hybrid. Daniels plays the vast majority of his snaps as the 3-tech, leaving one vacancy at the 1-tech. Yes, someone needs to replace Daniels at 3-tech on a small (<10-15%) of breather snaps in the nickel, and yes we need a third linemen in the 10-20% of snaps we play 3DL (true 3-4 or heavy/goal-line), but besides that we've been very consistent in normal game situations. I don't see what role Butler slots into in mainstream packages without changing the defense. Not that I don't think it's conceivable we should/could change things up, I just haven't heard how specifically that would work yet with the personnel we have + Butler, and I'd like to know what specific changes from what we do now people have in mind when they mention this for Butler or any other player.

And why do we now find ourselves in two down lineman formations?


Because opposing offenses play 3 and 4 WR sets more than they play 2 WR sets?
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MantyWrestler


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AlexGreen#20 wrote:
blueswedeshoes wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
Acrid Josher wrote:
If you don't see Butler at Nose, where do you see him? The last few years Daniels has had a monopoly on the 3-tech spot. That only leaves 1-tech/NT in nickel. Not really anywhere else that he fits, unless you think we are going to make some sort of scheme change (if this is the case, I'd be curious to hear the specific techniques where Daniels and Butler would play).


We're constantly shifting and rotating guys along that line. Butler can play just about any position and yes, he can emerge as a rotational Nose given what scouts reported from the Sr. Bowl. However, his value is in pushing the pocket as well as shedding on run plays away from him so he can use his burst to track down the ball carrier. What you are describing as his flaws are all things that can be fixed with professional coaching and drills.


Not really. We play the vast majority of snaps with 2 or fewer down linemen in a 4-3 Under hybrid. Daniels plays the vast majority of his snaps as the 3-tech, leaving one vacancy at the 1-tech. Yes, someone needs to replace Daniels at 3-tech on a small (<10-15%) of breather snaps in the nickel, and yes we need a third linemen in the 10-20% of snaps we play 3DL (true 3-4 or heavy/goal-line), but besides that we've been very consistent in normal game situations. I don't see what role Butler slots into in mainstream packages without changing the defense. Not that I don't think it's conceivable we should/could change things up, I just haven't heard how specifically that would work yet with the personnel we have + Butler, and I'd like to know what specific changes from what we do now people have in mind when they mention this for Butler or any other player.

And why do we now find ourselves in two down lineman formations?


Because opposing offenses play 3 and 4 WR sets more than they play 2 WR sets?


Therefore we play only 2 DL because that is all the DL we have that can get to the QB. If we had the Jets DL last year I'll bet you would have seen more 3 DL sets.
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