Teams That Should See Their Record Fall
Green Bay Packers (13-3, 4 Net Close Wins)
No matter who starts at quarterback, Green Bay will have a tough time repeating last season’s success. If indeed Aaron Rodgers does remain the starter, it appears Green Bay may struggle to win the division but no doubt will be a contender. No matter what scrutiny Ted Thompson has gotten over the Favre dilemma, he deserves recognition for putting together an incredibly young team that should have success for years. Matching last season’s win total looks bleak but I do foresee a 9 or 10 win season.
New England Patriots (16-0, 4 Net Close Wins)
It shouldn’t come to a surprise that the Patriots are on this list. For one, unless they had beaten every team by more than 7 points, it would be impossible for them to be left off. I don’t foresee another perfect regular season although there’s no question they will finish atop the AFC East. The road to perfection proved to be a rough one, winning close games to Philadelphia, New York (G-Men) and a game they could easily have lost in Baltimore. They bring back most of the pieces from last season’s team although the loss of Asante Samuel could be costly. Again, there’s no question they will win the division and likely earn a first round bye in the playoffs. I just think it will be with 12 or 13 wins this time.
New York Giants (10-6, 4 Net Close Wins)
Here is how I analyze the Giants in 2007. They got incredibly lucky to get to the playoffs with so many close victories, but proved they deserved to be there with a stellar postseason performance. I’m just not sure if they will continue their “king of the NFL” label in such a tough division. The playoffs are definitely still possible in 2008 although it will be difficult. I do see two NFC East teams reaching wild-card status and there is a good shot the Giants will be one of them. I’m predicting a 9 win season despite their recent success.
Dallas Cowboys (13-3, 3 Net Close Wins)
The Cowboys were my Super Bowl pick last season as I rode Tony Romo to fantasy glory. But 13 wins in the best division in football is a little much. Considering the amount of talent the NFC East, you could very well see a team like the Cowboys or even Giants not make the playoffs. The Boys are very talented and there's no reason for them not to win the division yet again. But I am skeptical about how well they'll fair against division opponents and I believe the Cowboys will be talked about at far greater detail late in December when they shoot for 10 or 11 wins.
Tennessee Titans (10-6, 3 Net Close Wins)
It's quite simple. They had too many close victories last season to convince me they are a legitimate contender in 2008. They failed to bring in much needed targets for Vince Young although they did bring in speed demon, Chris Johnson. Still, I don't see a repeat of 10 wins, especially in a division with Indianapolis, Jacksonville and a sleeper team in Houston. With that, I'm going with 6 or 7 wins for the Titans.
Indianapolis Colts (13-3, 2 Net Close Wins)
It's not as if the Colts will fall very far, but I do believe their win total will decrease somewhat. Peyton still leads an incredible offense, but for some reason I didn't see the same offense that won a Super Bowl the in 2006. It's unknown whether that defense will overachieve yet again too. O who am I kidding, I'm just looking for reasons to knock these guys. The Colts will remain one the AFC's elite with another 12 win season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5, 2 Net Close Wins)
The Jaguars were one of two teams to defy this pattern twice in two different years. There's no reason why they can't repeat an 11 or 12 win season under Jack Del Rio. I love the teams philosophy and with a stellar defense, the Jaguars will likely be in the playoffs for another year. Like I said before, another 11 win season sounds reasonable.
San Francisco 49ers (5-11, 2 Net Close Wins)
Despite winning only 5 games, the 49ers still finished with more close wins than close losses. In fact, in all 5 victories, the 49ers won by less than 6 points. This stat unfortunately points downwards rather than up as we discuss this cellar-dweller team. With so much youth there’s no reason why San Fran can’t prove this pattern wrong, however, with major questions at quarterback and their inability to win football games last season, the 2008 season doesn’t look to be a playoff season. Another 5 win season seems probable considering Seattle is still a dynamic team and Arizona could contend.
Buffalo (7-9, 2 Net Close Wins)
I’m having a tough time understanding how Buffalo will finish worse than 7-9 but the numbers do insist something’s up. This pattern doesn’t work in every circumstance so there is still a strong possibility Buffalo wins 8 or 9 games this season. I love what they have along the defensive line and their linebackers are young and promising. Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards could both be stellar although it is very possible that one may have a sophomore slump. With this notion that they’ll likely match or do worse than 7-9 I’m going to say they repeat and finish the season with 7 wins. I’m also fairly high on the Jets so a 3rd place finish seems the most reasonable.
Denver (7-9, 2 Net Close Wins)
Some have picked Denver as a wild card team. I'm going to go with the statistics and say this a down year for the Broncos. Jay Cutler should be fine, but I don't see the offensive hype I've been hearing about. The defense is also fairly different with inexperience at a few positions. It's San Diego's division to lose and I don't we'll see a wild card team come out of the West. I'm looking for Denver to repeat last season with a 6 or 7 win season.
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